New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

[yorkie]

There are a lot of covid 'police' about and each lockdown seems to make them more keen to tell others what to do and to pick up on others.

Often though they're hypocrites themselves. As an example a colleague posted a photo on social media showing LNER station staff who they deemed to not be socially distancing from each other.#

It's nonsense; the risk of transmission outdoors is minimal and social distancing isn't even a legal requirement.

Only issue was said colleague was travelling to Edingburgh to spend a weekend with their partner and did not take kindly to anyone asking if the journey was essential.

If it was within England it could be within the Guidelines if either (or both) live alone but I am not so sure if this is the case for England to Scotland; it's too complicated so I won't even try to look it up!

That said, by (unfairly) criticising others, they are opening themselves up to criticism (whether justified or not).

The chances are the people questioning that person had done something naughty too; it's almost impossible not to, as almost everything humans naturally do is currently a potential criminal offence.

(There's even an argument to say if someone went beyond their property boundary to clap in the street this could potentially be interpreted as a criminal offence; a potentially justifiable defence would be to claim clapping is 'exercising')

The current authoritarian state we live in is absolutely bonkers and it's shocking that so many people are prepared to put up with it, let alone enjoying it!

 

[takno]

If it was within England it could be within the Guidelines if either (or both) live alone but I am not so sure if this is the case for England to Scotland; it's too complicated so I won't even try to look it up!

Support bubbles/extended households are a legitimate reason to cross the border.

 

[Bantamzen]

My guess on restrictions easing:

I am optimistic that schools will reopen a month from today as planned but can see some year groups going in on alternate days until Easter to help reduce virus spread. I would assume that colleges and universities will reopen on the same date, and would like to think so too as many students who study practical courses like myself have been unable to access facilities vital to their studies for weeks. I know the Welsh government have borne this in mind for their education reopening on the 22nd so hopefully Boris will do the same regarding higher education.

Outdoor leisure poses a lower transmission risk than education settings so I can see golf courses etc also opening on the 8th. 23rd March marks the anniversary of the first lockdown so would make sense to reopen non-essential retail, gyms and hairdressers from this date.

I can see household mixing and domestic travel being allowed again from Easter, followed by reopening of hospitality and leisure during the middle of April when kids are back at school. This leaves a few more weeks before I reckon the rule of six, masks and social distancing are quietly dropped at the end of May.

This leaves mass gatherings and travel restrictions as the most dominant issues. Despite the optimism many people have about going abroad this summer, I’m not so sure it will be a free for all with the constant risk of new variants. I think what will happen come June is that travel corridors will be reinstated to countries with low infection rates, while anyone wishing to fly must have a negative test beforehand. Same goes for mass gatherings; If we can contain the virus, I don’t see why stadiums, festivals and nightclubs should not be allowed to open from this summer if all attendees can get tested beforehand.

Eventually, I think we will end up in a New Zealand-like situation where domestic life will be able to largely carry on as normal, but more stringent checks on crossing borders are in place for years to come until the pandemic is over globally.

On the issue of travel, the biggest problem with this is consistency. Different countries have all taken different approaches to receiving tourists, and some will doubtless continue to do so. I suspect for countries with vaccination programmes well under way, simple negative tests would be all that was needed although some who have been much stricter may well insist on proof of vaccination. However those countries will fall quickly into problems, with no firm plans for most countries to even mandate any evidence for their own citizens, the absence of such schemes is going to make it difficult to implement. And yes before anyone drags up the matter of things like Yellow Fever, I know some countries do require proof of this. However unlike covid, the yellow fever is something you arrange with a GP & pay for, getting proof as part of the service. The covid vaccinations around the world are being done en masse, with such bureaucracy being circumvented. Basically it just isn't going to be that easy to prove, save a little piece of card (that many have probably already lost).

As for public events, nightclubs etc, well while mass testing might seem preferable, it is actually a very flawed idea. For a start how often would people have to be tested? How would negative tests be proved (I imagine duplicating the results electronically won't be difficult). No this all risks a "papers please" type society, something we should be very keen to avoid at all costs. And frankly once the NHS isn't under severe pressure, why do we need mass testing anyway? Data on spread, variants, infection rates can easily be gleamed from those cases that still move through the NHS, we don't need all this data forever especially when it is being weaponised by people keen to lock us away.

No the time is approaching where we must stop micro-managing the situation, and just get on with life again. Its way too short to be terrified of it.

 

[notlob.divad]

Any variants will get in through Ireland anyway.

I suspect Ireland is far more worried about variants getting their through the UK rather than the other way around.

EU is not Europe though. Montenegro, Serbia and Macedonia are allowing Brits in without quarantine now. It would be a bit odd if they didn't when our case rate is lower. That is no use for someone traveling for a specific reason but its fine if people want to sit by a beach. Montenegro is supposed to be good for that + has some historic stuff. Non European destinations are an option too. Once lockdown lifts it depends whether people are prepared to travel against guidance and quarantine on return. Its unlikely if they wanted to hotel quarantine all arrivals that the government would have the infrastructure in place by Easter.

Correct observation, however it doesn't really help the poster I was responding to who wanted to go to Italy, nor does it help me and my wedding guests when half the guests are from the UK and half from Poland.

I expect @SouthEastBuses may be in luck with Italy because it was the first European country to reopen to tourists last year.

I hope your right, however this year there does seem to be a different feeling. The EU countries are trying anything and everything to keep their border open to one another, in order to keep business and the economies moving, the first sacrifice for that could well be keeping others out, and this year that includes Brits.

 

[Planesandtrain]

I hope your right, however this year there does seem to be a different feeling. The EU countries are trying anything and everything to keep their border open to one another, in order to keep business and the economies moving, the first sacrifice for that could well be keeping others out, and this year that includes Brits.

I think it will end up in a situation where some countries like Spain, Italy, Croatia possibly France are so desperate for tourists that they open up. Not to mention the airlines will start making a lot of noise from around April onwards when they see their summer season at risk again.

 

[Yew]

I think it will end up in a situation where some countries like Spain, Italy, Croatia possibly France are so desperate for tourists that they open up. Not to mention the airlines will start making a lot of noise from around April onwards when they see their summer season at risk again.

Indeed, I think Italy is already planning to open its ski resorts for the end of the season? Though whether international visitors will be allowed is a different question.

 

[scarby]

France is open to the rest of the EU and you can travel freely within the country. I went there (from Sweden) in January, I was surprised how easy it was.

 

[Class 33]

My guess on restrictions easing:

I am optimistic that schools will reopen a month from today as planned but can see some year groups going in on alternate days until Easter to help reduce virus spread. I would assume that colleges and universities will reopen on the same date, and would like to think so too as many students who study practical courses like myself have been unable to access facilities vital to their studies for weeks. I know the Welsh government have borne this in mind for their education reopening on the 22nd so hopefully Boris will do the same regarding higher education.

Outdoor leisure poses a lower transmission risk than education settings so I can see golf courses etc also opening on the 8th. 23rd March marks the anniversary of the first lockdown so would make sense to reopen non-essential retail, gyms and hairdressers from this date.

I can see household mixing and domestic travel being allowed again from Easter, followed by reopening of hospitality and leisure during the middle of April when kids are back at school. This leaves a few more weeks before I reckon the rule of six, masks and social distancing are quietly dropped at the end of May.

This leaves mass gatherings and travel restrictions as the most dominant issues. Despite the optimism many people have about going abroad this summer, I’m not so sure it will be a free for all with the constant risk of new variants. I think what will happen come June is that travel corridors will be reinstated to countries with low infection rates, while anyone wishing to fly must have a negative test beforehand. Same goes for mass gatherings; If we can contain the virus, I don’t see why stadiums, festivals and nightclubs should not be allowed to open from this summer if all attendees can get tested beforehand.

Eventually, I think we will end up in a New Zealand-like situation where domestic life will be able to largely carry on as normal, but more stringent checks on crossing borders are in place for years to come until the pandemic is over globally.

Well hopefully domestic travel will be allowed from the 8th March easing. Surely the "Stay at home" guidance won't still be going then. But as mentioned, if that is still going, then I can see many many people ignoring that, especially if the weather warms up next month.

Hopefully you are right that these ridiculous rules of six, face masks and social distancing is dropped by the end of May. My feeling is though that they'll probably drag them out until about early July. But with the way things are going now - all these millions of vaccinations and all the Coronavirus stats now heading down week on week on week, there is certainly no reason atall why these rules/laws can not and should not be scrapped altogether by the end of May.

I also don't see any reasons why festivals should not be able to go ahead this summer. But many festivals are on a knife-edge at the moment, anxiously waiting to find out if their festivals can go ahead or not. But I don't think the government are going to announce this yet. So it's beginning to really cut it fine at the moment.

Hopefully this "road map" that Johnson announces on 22nd February will actually be detailed of which types of businesses will be allowed to reopen, what restrictions will be eased or scrapped, etc over the next few months. But I get the feeling that the scrapping of face mask wearing and social distancing will not even get a mention yet. We'll have to see on the 22nd. We could be disappointed with this "road map" or we could be pleasantly surprised.

 

[Chester1]

I suspect Ireland is far more worried about variants getting their through the UK rather than the other way around.


Correct observation, however it doesn't really help the poster I was responding to who wanted to go to Italy, nor does it help me and my wedding guests when half the guests are from the UK and half from Poland.

I hope your right, however this year there does seem to be a different feeling. The EU countries are trying anything and everything to keep their border open to one another, in order to keep business and the economies moving, the first sacrifice for that could well be keeping others out, and this year that includes Brits.

While the UK is currently more of a risk to Ireland than the other way around that would change if we decided to hotel quarantine all arrivals because Ireland has said it won't hotel quarantine EU citizens. The Irish border would become the easiest way for a new variant to enter the UK. There would be some direct risk from lorry drivers etc but the main route for a new variant would be an EU citizen passing it onto an Irish resident, to an NI resident and then to a GB resident. Without Ireland quarantining all arrivals the UK doing so is merely a delaying tactic.

The distinction between EU and Europe really matters for people who just want a holiday and not travel to a specific country. If @SouthEastBuses wants to go to Italy to see family or friends he is in a different situation to if he just fancies a week or two in warmer country with a different culture. Montenegro, Serbia and Macedonia offer that the moment lockdown is lifted. Non European destinations linked to UK by budget airlines are also an option at a similar price to EU destinations.

I would be extremely surprised if the EU countries with large tourist industries toed the EU line on third country nationals. Italy didn't last year and allowed non European tourists in. Spain, Portugal and Malta were furious when they were put on the UK quarantine list last year. People love to moan about British tourists but moan more if we don't turn up. There is a habitual element to holidays for many people. There is a risk that if people go to Montenegro, Morocco or Turkey for their main holiday this year because of EU restrictions they might like their destination and go again in future. If one EU country e.g. Italy chooses to allow Brits in and other members don't then they could win a larger share of the British tourist market long term. Individual EU member states are going to have to weigh up the economic vs health risks.

 

[nlogax]

Support bubbles/extended households are a legitimate reason to cross the border.

Indeed they are. I've been doing such trips since spring last year without interruption, either driving or flying. No questions asked of me by police, no-one checking anything. Doing it by train in a couple of weeks and am not expecting anything different.

 

[greyman42]

The current authoritarian state we live in is absolutely bonkers and it's shocking that so many people are prepared to put up with it, let alone enjoying it!

If some people can sit in their pyjamas all day while "working" from home as they plan their trips to the seaside when the weather improves, then i think they will put up with it and enjoy it. What actually happens in a couple of months might be very different.

 

[6862]

This repot from the BBC news live feed regarding easing of lockdown in Northern Ireland shows that freedom is a very long way off indeed, if Great Britain follows a similar path to NI.

Lifting NI restrictions 'needs 70-80% vaccinated'​

PA MediaCopyright: PA Media
Covid-19 restrictions will not be fully lifted in Northern Ireland until 70 to 80% of people have been vaccinated, the chief medical officer says.
So far, about 22% of adults have received at least a first dose of a vaccine, Dr Michael McBride told a media briefing.
If the rate of case numbers keeps falling, "we will hopefully be able to do some things this summer like we did last summer", he says.
Over time new variants such as those which have emerged in South Africa and Brazil could be detected in NI, however, he says "they may not become the dominant strain".
Patricia Donnelly, who heads up NI's vaccine programme, says arrangements are being made for clinically vulnerable 16 to 18-year-olds to receive the Pfizer vaccine within weeks.

What I find worrying is the comment regarding summer. It seems to be implying that this summer will not be as good as last summer. I personally don't find this surprising, as so far everything seems to be pointing to the government's stance against the population virus getting stricter, not more relaxed.

 

[duncanp]

This repot from the BBC news live feed regarding easing of lockdown in Northern Ireland shows that freedom is a very long way off indeed, if Great Britain follows a similar path to NI.



What I find worrying is the comment regarding summer. It seems to be implying that this summer will not be as good as last summer. I personally don't find this surprising, as so far everything seems to be pointing to the government's stance against the population virus getting stricter, not more relaxed.

It is worth pointing out that the CMO for Northern Ireland said that COVID-19 restrictions will not be fully lifted until 80% of the population have been vaccinated.

This statement does not preclude some lifting of restrictions before the 80% threshold is reached, and I would expect the lifting of restrictions in the devolved administrations to follow broadly the same pattern as in England, possibly with a few tweaks here and there, and a delay of a few weeks just to make it look as though they are acting independently.

The other thing to note is that, at current rates of vaccination the 80% threshold for the whole of the UK is likely to be reached in early June. Even if that date slips a little due to unforeseen circumstances, it is not unreasonable to suppose that the threshold will be reached by the end of June, at which point all restrictions, or at least the vast majority of them, can be removed.

So I don't think the statement is quite so pessimistic after all.

 

[DB]

It is worth pointing out that the CMO for Northern Ireland said that COVID-19 restrictions will not be fully lifted until 80% of the population have been vaccinated.

This statement does not preclude some lifting of restrictions before the 80% threshold is reached, and I would expect the lifting of restrictions in the devolved administrations to follow broadly the same pattern as in England, possibly with a few tweaks here and there, and a delay of a few weeks just to make it look as though they are acting independently.

The other thing to note is that, at current rates of vaccination the 80% threshold for the whole of the UK is likely to be reached in early June. Even if that date slips a little due to unforeseen circumstances, it is not unreasonable to suppose that the threshold will be reached by the end of June, at which point all restrictions, or at least the vast majority of them, can be removed.

So I don't think the statement is quite so pessimistic after all.

Is it 80% of the total population have had it, or 80% have been offered it?

 

[Luke McDonnell]

When do you think that I will able to legally meet up with my friends indoors again? I am asking this as someone has speculated on another forum that it could be as late as June I hope it is not as late as June myself I hope that it will be April at the latest as surely by then we cannot stop 2 friends/family members meeting indoors as at the current rate of vaccination rollout all the vulnerable groups and most of the over 50s should be done by then so I don't think they would be any need I would say the rule of 6 the strictest it should be. If it is as late as June I would certainly see compliance dropping especially among vaccinated individuals. Just don't want to see it as being as late as June as by then over a year would have elapsed since I have been able too see one of my best friends properly and I would like to start travelling by train to meet him like I used to pre Covid

 

[duncanp]

Is it 80% of the total population have had it, or 80% have been offered it?

This is until 80% of people have been offered it.

I don't know what the rate of refusal is (does anyone?) but I can't imagine the government extending the lockdown merely because some people have refused the offer of a vaccine.

If you are going to lift restrictions, the best time to do it is in the spring and summer, when respiratory viruses naturally have a low prevalence.

I think enough people will eventually take up the offer of a vaccine so that herd immunity can be achieved.

 

[102 fan]

This repot from the BBC news live feed regarding easing of lockdown in Northern Ireland shows that freedom is a very long way off indeed, if Great Britain follows a similar path to NI.



What I find worrying is the comment regarding summer. It seems to be implying that this summer will not be as good as last summer. I personally don't find this surprising, as so far everything seems to be pointing to the government's stance against the population virus getting stricter, not more relaxed.

It was the 'Restrictions into next year' that I found pessimistic.

 

[island]

While the UK is currently more of a risk to Ireland than the other way around that would change if we decided to hotel quarantine all arrivals because Ireland has said it won't hotel quarantine EU citizens. The Irish border would become the easiest way for a new variant to enter the UK. There would be some direct risk from lorry drivers etc but the main route for a new variant would be an EU citizen passing it onto an Irish resident, to an NI resident and then to a GB resident. Without Ireland quarantining all arrivals the UK doing so is merely a delaying tactic.

My understanding is that Ireland did intend to operate hotel quarantine on the same terms as England, but to do so for EU citizens requires primary legislation, and that’s slow and unpredictable in the current three-party coalition.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 Feb 2021 ==

Legislation on quarantine hotels next week - Tánaiste

The Tánaiste has said he hopes legislation on quarantine hotels in Ireland will be published next week.

www.rte.ie

 

[Chester1]

My understanding is that Ireland did intend to operate hotel quarantine on the same terms as England, but to do so for EU citizens requires primary legislation, and that’s slow and unpredictable in the current three-party coalition.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 Feb 2021 ==

Legislation on quarantine hotels next week - Tánaiste

The Tánaiste has said he hopes legislation on quarantine hotels in Ireland will be published next week.

www.rte.ie

I don't know if they have changed position but the relevant minister stated to the Irish parliament that hotel quarantining of EU arrivals would break EU law. I don't know of any EU member state that is intending to quarantine EU arrivals. My understanding was that Ireland intends to co-ordinate with UK on non EU countries but that EU arrivals crosses a red line.

Unless Ireland agrees to hotel quarantine all arrivals, the UK doing so would just a delaying tactic. Accompanied freight would be another problem even with regular testing of lorry drivers. I don't think its practical or necessary to seel off both islands but that would be the only way of keeping variants out, unless they begin here...

 

[HSTEd]

This is being done as theatre - everyone knows it is ultimately pointless.

That's why the implementation keeps being pushed back.

 

[Yew]

This is being done as theatre - everyone knows it is ultimately pointless.

That's why the implementation keeps being pushed back.

And yet still I see posts on facebook about how NZ and AUS closed their borders and have few deaths, as if it's going to suddenly bring people back to life.

 

[HSTEd]

And yet still I see posts on facebook about how NZ and AUS closed their borders and have few deaths, as if it's going to suddenly bring people back to life.

NZ and AUS also don't have a necessarily open land border and thousands of lorry drivers crossing the border each and every day.

 

[Freightmaster]

When do you think that I will able to legally meet up with my friends indoors again? I am asking this as someone has speculated on another forum that it could be as late as June I hope it is not as late as June myself I hope that it will be April at the latest as surely by then we cannot stop 2 friends/family members meeting indoors as at the current rate of vaccination rollout all the vulnerable groups and most of the over 50s should be done by then so I don't think they would be any need I would say the rule of 6 the strictest it should be. If it is as late as June I would certainly see compliance dropping especially among vaccinated individuals. Just don't want to see it as being as late as June as by then over a year would have elapsed since I have been able too see one of my best friends properly and I would like to start travelling by train to meet him like I used to pre Covid

Assuming that you (and/or he) live on your own, I don't see any reason why you cannot form a 'support bubble'?


Once you do that, there is no limit as to how far you are permitted to travel right now, including to Wales/Scotland;
no need to wait for April/May/June!





MARK

 

[Solent&Wessex]

And so the mental torture continues...

COVID-19: Scientists label mutation found in Bristol as 'variant of concern'

There have been 14 cases of the variant in Bristol, four in Manchester, and three other scattered cases.

news.sky.com

New mutation of the UK variant discovered in the UK...

"New variant of concern".... "may be highly transmissible".... "could also possibly interfere with the vaccine"..."could make the vaccine less effective at stopping the spread of the virus"....." it could evade the vaccine."

And the killer blow....

"Experts agree the best way to stop new variants spreading is lockdown".


I do wish the "experts" would go away!

We cannot stay in lockdown just because of all these maybes and could dos. I do fear that Boris and co are spooked and will listen to them too much.

 

[brad465]

And so the mental torture continues...

COVID-19: Scientists label mutation found in Bristol as 'variant of concern'

There have been 14 cases of the variant in Bristol, four in Manchester, and three other scattered cases.

news.sky.com

New mutation of the UK variant discovered in the UK...

"New variant of concern".... "may be highly transmissible".... "could also possibly interfere with the vaccine"..."could make the vaccine less effective at stopping the spread of the virus"....." it could evade the vaccine."

And the killer blow....

"Experts agree the best way to stop new variants spreading is lockdown".


I do wish the "experts" would go away!

We cannot stay in lockdown just because of all these maybes and could dos. I do fear that Boris and co are spooked and will listen to them too much.

Without diving too much into the subject of another thread, this shows how pointless the latest quarantine sentence plan is, what's the point of stringent measures to stop new variants entering the UK when we're more than capable of producing our own variants here?

 

[bramling]

And so the mental torture continues...

COVID-19: Scientists label mutation found in Bristol as 'variant of concern'

There have been 14 cases of the variant in Bristol, four in Manchester, and three other scattered cases.

news.sky.com

New mutation of the UK variant discovered in the UK...

"New variant of concern".... "may be highly transmissible".... "could also possibly interfere with the vaccine"..."could make the vaccine less effective at stopping the spread of the virus"....." it could evade the vaccine."

And the killer blow....

"Experts agree the best way to stop new variants spreading is lockdown".


I do wish the "experts" would go away!

We cannot stay in lockdown just because of all these maybes and could dos. I do fear that Boris and co are spooked and will listen to them too much.

So the best way to stop new variants is lockdown. Hmm, forgive me if I’m missing anything however we’ve been in lockdown more or less since November, yet here we are with these supposedly terrifying new variants.

If these scientists had their way we’d be in permanent lockdown and human life would become extinct.

There needs to be a political declaration that lockdown is no longer an acceptable (nor viable) response to any of this, and that the scientists need to find other solutions. I could quite happily accept lockdown as an emergency measure to buy time to get the house in order. I could even support it if elimination was a viable prospect (for example in the very early stage of an outbreak). However as a medium or long term measure it’s unacceptable. I’m not convinced it’s that effective either, it’s quite clear our current wave was peaking before the lockdown arrived.

 

[Bantamzen]

So the best way to stop new variants is lockdown. Hmm, forgive me if I’m missing anything however we’ve been in lockdown more or less since November, yet here we are with these supposedly terrifying new variants.

If these scientists had their way we’d be in permanent lockdown and human life would become extinct.

There needs to be a political declaration that lockdown is no longer an acceptable (nor viable) response to any of this, and that the scientists need to find other solutions. I could quite happily accept lockdown as an emergency measure to buy time to get the house in order. I could even support it if elimination was a viable prospect (for example in the very early stage of an outbreak). However as a medium or long term measure it’s unacceptable. I’m not convinced it’s that effective either, it’s quite clear our current wave was peaking before the lockdown arrived.

Once again virus micro-management in play. I'm pretty sure that every virus that has a vaccine becomes of interest (read of concern) when a mutation is detected, but it doesn't mean full on panic every time though. I'm getting pretty sick of the bed-wetting media and certain politicians trying to string their precious lockdown out with pure and utter scaremongering.

 

[Mag_seven]

Once again virus micro-management in play. I'm pretty sure that every virus that has a vaccine becomes of interest (read of concern) when a mutation is detected, but it doesn't mean full on panic every time though. I'm getting pretty sick of the bed-wetting media and certain politicians trying to string their precious lockdown out with pure and utter scaremongering.

We need to stop this hysteria around COVID and treat it exactly the same way we do with flu. The flu virus mutates every year (where is the media hysteria when it does?), we tweak the vaccine every year as a result and inject the vulnerable with the new vaccine every year - all whilst living our lives as normal.

 

[Bantamzen]

We need to stop this hysteria around COVID and treat it exactly the same way we do with flu. The flu virus mutates every year (where is the media hysteria when it does?), we tweak the vaccine every year as a result and inject the vulnerable with the new vaccine every year - all whilst living our lives as normal.

Exactly, detecting a couple of dozen cases dotted about isn't "a cause for concern", it is of note but not something we should be panicking about. Indeed panic might lead to more lockdowns, which in turn could supress the current dominant strain opening the door for new ones to gain a foothold. I'm pretty certain that is what happened with the "Kent" variant, it emerged during or just after the first lockdown, found the previous strain in retreat and so took advantage.

 

[birchesgreen]

If these scientists had their way we’d be in permanent lockdown and human life would become extinct.

Well that is the one guaranteed way to stop covid!