New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

[yorksrob]

It is significant that he says "Britain is approaching a "fat lady sings moment" when lockdown must be lifted, never to return", which means he is saying that the cost of all these lockdown measures is rapidly reaching a point where it cannot be ignored any longer.

Thank goodness someone in Government is.

 

[35B]

There are two articles in the Telegraph today. One is the opinion piece that you refer to, the other is a news item with the headline Rishi Sunak concerned scientists are moving goalposts

I have quoted some of this article below, but the key sentence is the one which begins "He has told allies...

In plain English this means that Rishi Sunak has leaked his concerns to the press in order to put pressure on the government to give more of a priority to the economy when plotting the roadmap out of lockdown.

It is significant that he says "Britain is approaching a "fat lady sings moment" when lockdown must be lifted, never to return", which means he is saying that the cost of all these lockdown measures is rapidly reaching a point where it cannot be ignored any longer.

Thanks for the clarification; I’ve used my quota of free articles on the Torygraph and refuse to give them my money for more.

Its certainly a signal, but I await to see of what - to set against that interpretation, this is a house paper of the Tory party, and therefore a good way for him either to signal intent even if there’s nothing much going on in the background, or test opinion before committing himself. Again, I’ll believe the story has legs rather than being Westminster village gossip if/when it gets carried elsewhere.

None of which is to deny that how the boundaries are set will be critically important - and the trade off between case numbers and hospitalisations and deaths will be a vital part of that boundary setting.

Lilico’s article presents what I’d call the optimistic case. Any data point used is a positive, best case, one and he further reveals his deliberate optimism by using the tautology of “potential risk” - i.e. that something which might happen, might happen. It’s a classic behaviour from someone wishing to diminish their audience’s belief that something may happen which, where I’ve encountered it on projects I’ve worked on, has been a guarantee that the person uttering it is in cloud cuckoo land and determined to ignore a possibility; I see nothing in that opinion article to make me doubt that.

 

[yorksrob]

The big 'risk' that the pro-lockdown brigade ought to be considering, is the potential for a progressive mass ignoring of restrictions (I put risk in inverted commas as I see it primarily as a risk to the flawed lockdown strategy). If they want their strategy to maintain any sort of credibility amogst the public, they should be looking at ways of giving ground to peoples needs whilst avoiding a large surge in cases. Instead I see a lot of assumptions that people will continue to just do as they're told.

 

[Bantamzen]

There are two articles in the Telegraph today. One is the opinion piece that you refer to, the other is a news item with the headline Rishi Sunak concerned scientists are moving goalposts

I have quoted some of this article below, but the key sentence is the one which begins "He has told allies...

In plain English this means that Rishi Sunak has leaked his concerns to the press in order to put pressure on the government to give more of a priority to the economy when plotting the roadmap out of lockdown.

It is significant that he says "Britain is approaching a "fat lady sings moment" when lockdown must be lifted, never to return", which means he is saying that the cost of all these lockdown measures is rapidly reaching a point where it cannot be ignored any longer.

Exactly. We know this government has form in leaking news to the media to either gauge reaction or to prepare the public, and this will be no different. The cabinet cheered on by SAGE & Co have been constantly sweeping the effects of lockdowns under the carpet, but it has now reached the point where the bulge is visible to the naked eye. And so Sunak is now moving the carpet to just what crap is there and how to deal with it.

Of course there may be another side to the story, with BoJo's policies cracking & his advisors now coming under scrutiny, I wouldn't be surprised if this is the first public move to shove Boris off the throne. So if the budget next month, as I expect it to be, is full of job creation, business grants / loans & commitments to reform taxation both centrally & locally, then expect a full on move from Sunak in April or May when (hopefully) restrictions are being dropped.

 

[philosopher]

The big 'risk' that the pro-lockdown brigade ought to be considering, is the potential for a progressive mass ignoring of restrictions (I put risk in inverted commas as I see it primarily as a risk to the flawed lockdown strategy). If they want their strategy to maintain any sort of credibility amogst the public, they should be looking at ways of giving ground to peoples needs whilst avoiding a large surge in cases. Instead I see a lot of assumptions that people will continue to just do as they're told.

If a lockdown goes on for too long you will end up with the worst of both worlds. Cases will start to rise as people ignore restrictions, however as businesses will continue to be shut, the economic damage will continue.

 

[yorksrob]

If a lockdown goes on for too long you will end up with the worst of both worlds. Cases will start to rise as people ignore restrictions, however as businesses will continue to be shut, the economic damage will continue.

Indeed. I've no interest or wish to see the lockdown regime prolonged, but if I were, I would be looking at ways to ease pressure, for example allowing people to meet outdoors in slightly larger groups, removal of stay at home etc.

 

[kristiang85]

The big 'risk' that the pro-lockdown brigade ought to be considering, is the potential for a progressive mass ignoring of restrictions (I put risk in inverted commas as I see it primarily as a risk to the flawed lockdown strategy). If they want their strategy to maintain any sort of credibility amogst the public, they should be looking at ways of giving ground to peoples needs whilst avoiding a large surge in cases. Instead I see a lot of assumptions that people will continue to just do as they're told.

Indeed. I think even many of the vehemently pro lockdown brigade, who haven't listened to the fear about variants, will be getting very antsy if they are not allowed to go and visit their now-vaccinated grandparents/parents for the first time in a year.

 

[duncanp]

Exactly. We know this government has form in leaking news to the media to either gauge reaction or to prepare the public, and this will be no different. The cabinet cheered on by SAGE & Co have been constantly sweeping the effects of lockdowns under the carpet, but it has now reached the point where the bulge is visible to the naked eye. And so Sunak is now moving the carpet to just what crap is there and how to deal with it.

Of course there may be another side to the story, with BoJo's policies cracking & his advisors now coming under scrutiny, I wouldn't be surprised if this is the first public move to shove Boris off the throne. So if the budget next month, as I expect it to be, is full of job creation, business grants / loans & commitments to reform taxation both centrally & locally, then expect a full on move from Sunak in April or May when (hopefully) restrictions are being dropped.

I think this is all part of the battle between the locktivists and Rishi Sunak ahead of the publication of the roadmap out of lockdown on February 22nd.

Once this has been published, it will be far more difficult for SAGE to start arguing that a particular restriction needs to be kept in place for longer than anticipated.

In addition, the budget on March 3rd will contain measures to stimulate economic recovery, as well as tax rises to pay for the cost of all of this. However the extent of the measures in the budget will depend on the roadmap out of lockdown.

So again, after the publication of the roadmap and then the budget, the course out of lockdown will be set, and it will be difficult, both politically and economically, to change it.

 

[bramling]

Thank goodness someone in Government is.

The problem is that Sunak isn’t squeaky clean on this either. Furlough is very much his brainchild, and this has arguably been one of the things which has helped lead us into continued lockdowns. Secondly there was the bizarre scheme last August, which was at best wasteful and ill-judged, and at worst dangerous.

I have a real bugbear on the latter topic, as you know. I utterly object to my tax being used to fund indiscriminate discount dining.

 

[kristiang85]

The problem is that Sunak isn’t squeaky clean on this either. Furlough is very much his brainchild, and this has arguably been one of the things which has helped lead us into continued lockdowns. Secondly there was the bizarre scheme last August, which was at best wasteful and ill-judged, and at worst dangerous.

I have a real bugbear on the latter topic, as you know. I utterly object to my tax being used to fund indiscriminate discount dining.

I don't think we can entirely blame Sunak for furlough; the government was heavily criticised at first for not having such a system when other countries put it in place, so when lockdown started they had no choice really.

Then once the genie was out of the bottle it was hard to put it back in. I'm sure he was not the one wanting to keep extending it; hopefully he puts his foot down at any further extension.

I think EOTHO was needed; many businesses credit it with saving them, and there is no evidence it contributed to the rise in infections in September (this was mostly down to educational settings, and of course normal seasonality kicking in). I doubt he will implement it again though.

 

[ainsworth74]

Its been brought recently in a conversation, but I thought it was worth sharing here too. It seems the Chancellor is starting to make some unhappy noises at No.11, accusing scientists (note scientists, not his fellow cabinet members) of moving the goalposts & not allowing him to kickstart the economy. I've said for some time that Sunak, The Treasury & indeed many parts of Whitehall would not be happy about the ongoing restrictions, and that eventually the cost would cause the unrest behind closed doors to bubble over. The Telegraph covers this on it's front page today.

Though it's being reported elsewhere, in particular at Politico, that the Treasury are unsure where the story has come from:

Just one problem: A Treasury source tells Playbook they have no idea where the story has come from and they’ve never heard Sunak express these views. They also claim “fat lady sings moment” is “not something he would say. Or anyone … for that matter.”

To put it a different way: Another Treasury source tells the Mail on Sunday’s Dan Hodges that the story is “horsesh*t.”

So I'm not sure I'd be taking it as the gospel truth that Sunak is about to break ranks.

 

[Bantamzen]

Though it's being reported elsewhere, in particular at Politico, that the Treasury are unsure where the story has come from:



So I'm not sure I'd be taking it as the gospel truth that Sunak is about to break ranks.

In the civil service there is never smoke without fire.

 

[joncombe]

Thanks for the clarification; I’ve used my quota of free articles on the Torygraph and refuse to give them my money for more.

For what it's worth you can read the front page of the main newspapers each day on the BBC website, that is what I did. They publish a photo of the main front pages and I always find it's sufficiently detailed to be able to read all the article text without problem if you zoom in (obviously, if an article continues on to page 2 or whatever, that won't help but...)

 

[ainsworth74]

In the civil service there is never smoke without fire.

I'm sure but I could already see a head of steam being built up around the narrative that Rishi's 'riding to the rescue' as it were and I'd rather that you all perhaps tempered your expectations rather than lapsing into unalloyed joy

 

[yorksrob]

The problem is that Sunak isn’t squeaky clean on this either. Furlough is very much his brainchild, and this has arguably been one of the things which has helped lead us into continued lockdowns. Secondly there was the bizarre scheme last August, which was at best wasteful and ill-judged, and at worst dangerous.

I have a real bugbear on the latter topic, as you know. I utterly object to my tax being used to fund indiscriminate discount dining.

Well, I think it's clear that Furlough was only meant to be a temporary scheme when it was devised. Unfortunately other elements of the Government seemed to have used this to facilitate ever longer lockdowns.

In terms of Eat Out to Help Out, I've yet to see any evidence that it has caused any spike in cases. I don't have an issue with the scheme more generally.

 

[35B]

Well, I think it's clear that Furlough was only meant to be a temporary scheme when it was devised. Unfortunately other elements of the Government seemed to have used this to facilitate ever longer lockdowns.

In terms of Eat Out to Help Out, I've yet to see any evidence that it has caused any spike in cases. I don't have an issue with the scheme more generally.

I think I'd see furlough the other way round - that providing something of the kind was essential if the government was going to impose a lockdown. As such it's a consequence of government policy on Covid, not a cause of it.

In the civil service there is never smoke without fire.

Perhaps, but the strength of those denials suggests that Sunak was at most allowing one of his SPADs to trail something to test the reaction. As @ainsworth74 says, the idea that Rishi's riding to the rescue, with or without the aid of the Covid Research Group, is implausible - not least because it makes assumptions about the ability of individual politicians to implement "their" policies in a system that's based on collective responsibility.

 

[DB]

I think EOTHO was needed; many businesses credit it with saving them,

I'm not sure how anyone can conclude that - it's very likely that people would have gone out more anyway once they reopened after a period of closure, especially as it was summer.

What it clearly did do, from observation, was shift the Friday/Saturday peak to the first half of the week, with Friday/Saturday being obviously queieter on walking through the town centre.

 

[kristiang85]

I'm not sure how anyone can conclude that - it's very likely that people would have gone out more anyway once they reopened after a period of closure, especially as it was summer.

What it clearly did do, from observation, was shift the Friday/Saturday peak to the first half of the week, with Friday/Saturday being obviously queieter on walking through the town centre.

It absolutely did. Don't forget it made eating out, which is a luxury for many, very affordable for more people, and kept places busy all week (as you say). And the incentive for cheaper meals also persuaded some to go out who otherwise might have been a bit fearful.

The various hospitality professionals I follow on social media (I followed many even before the pandemic as I like eating and drinking) have credited it with getting them through last year, especially as the Christmas season (which is usually the main business time of year) was completely wrecked.

 

[DB]

It absolutely did. Don't forget it made eating out, which is a luxury for many, very affordable for more people, and kept places busy all week (as you say). And the incentive for cheaper meals also persuaded some to go out who otherwise might have been a bit fearful.

It clearly didn't keep a lot of places near me busy all week - some of them had queues in the first half of the week but were sparse from Thursday onwards.

 

[kristiang85]

It clearly didn't keep a lot of places near me busy all week - some of them had queues in the first half of the week but were sparse from Thursday onwards.

Well from personal experience, I definitely went out at the weekends too, and I don't remember ever thinking places were that empty. But this is mostly in London I guess, so maybe I'm not representative.

But if you do a quick google on 'did eat out to help out help businesses' then lots of articles pop up with quotes from business owners saying yes it did.

Hopefully there will be some official research on it at some point; you'd expect so given £500m was spent on it and you'd think it would have to be made accountable.

 

[yorksrob]

I think I'd see furlough the other way round - that providing something of the kind was essential if the government was going to impose a lockdown. As such it's a consequence of government policy on Covid, not a cause of it.

I think it's true in the first instance, but once established, it has also gone some way to facilitate the recurrent lockdown. Personally, I'm more inclined to blame those calling for the recurrent lockdown.

It absolutely did. Don't forget it made eating out, which is a luxury for many, very affordable for more people, and kept places busy all week (as you say). And the incentive for cheaper meals also persuaded some to go out who otherwise might have been a bit fearful.

The various hospitality professionals I follow on social media (I followed many even before the pandemic as I like eating and drinking) have credited it with getting them through last year, especially as the Christmas season (which is usually the main business time of year) was completely wrecked.

I'm reminded of an interview I saw with residents in a locality that had suffered a high incidence of COVID who were adamant that EOTHO had caused the spread. I wondered then whether there were other examples of mixing close at hand which would have been just as likely, if not moreso to cause transmission.

 

[kristiang85]

I'm reminded of an interview I saw with residents in a locality that had suffered a high incidence of COVID who were adamant that EOTHO had caused the spread. I wondered then whether there were other examples of mixing close at hand which would have been just as likely, if not moreso to cause transmission.

In EOTHO, restaurants were still 'COVID safe' (I really hope that phrase is eliminated this year).

All the people mixing at home on the other hand...

But I still maintain the main rise was due to the return to education - from universities to normal schooling. As happens every September.

The main rise in cases started in mid-September, which is much more consistent with schools than EOTHO (assuming ~5 days from infection to positive test).

 

[yorksrob]

In EOTHO, restaurants were still 'COVID safe' (I really hope that phrase is eliminated this year).

All the people mixing at home on the other hand...

Exactly. Certainly all the places I ate out in were being rigorous with the distancing rules.

 

[JamesT]

I believe Japan also had a scheme for encouraging eating out and their COVID deaths are far lower than ours.

 

[yorkie]

I am sticking with my prediction that we will be into a Tier 3 type situation from 1st or 8th of March; anything worse than that is simply unacceptable.

I don't mind so much if they tinker with the restrictions slightly so some things previously open in Tier 3 (eg non essential retail) are no longer allowed, providing gyms & leisure centres are open, and going out of the home without a reasonable excuse is abolished.

Those who want to keep the population unhealthy and demoralised for an extended period are dangerous individuals and have no respect from me.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Feb 2021 ==

I believe Japan also had a scheme for encouraging eating out and their COVID deaths are far lower than ours.

Quite. Eat Out to Help Out was a Summer thing and had absolutely nothing to do with the entirely predictable seasonal rise in cases, which was always going to happen for a seasonal virus.

People who claim we should have locked down throughout the Summer or other bizarre claims to avoid the expected seasonal increase are completely deluded and incapable of doing even basic research.

The agenda of the authoritarians is to extend lockdowns; they are very worried that this lockdown will not go on for as long as they hope. Well, they can stuff it as far as I'm concerned.

 

[Carlisle]

The main rise in cases started in mid-September, which is much more consistent with schools than EOTHO (assuming ~5 days from infection to positive test).

Plus once hospitality was closed again. a significant number of people will likley have reverted to the house gathering routines they’d begun after the initial easing of the first lockdown

 

[ainsworth74]

Hopefully there will be some official research on it at some point; you'd expect so given £500m was spent on it and you'd think it would have to be made accountable.

With this Government? I wouldn't hold your breath. They're current in court over billions of spending on various Covid related contracts (PPE I think for the most part) which have either not been disclosed in line with legal requirements or have been disclosed late.

 

[kristiang85]

With this Government? I wouldn't hold your breath. They're current in court over billions of spending on various Covid related contracts (PPE I think for the most part) which have either not been disclosed in line with legal requirements or have been disclosed late.

Yes, I was typing that with a wry smile...

 

[WelshBluebird]

The problem is that Sunak isn’t squeaky clean on this either. Furlough is very much his brainchild, and this has arguably been one of the things which has helped lead us into continued lockdowns.

It has also been the thing that stopped millions of people being instantly made unemployed and having to claim UC.
For its faults - we would be in a massively worse position without it.
Even if lockdowns weren't a thing - it is heavily likely that certainly industries would not have been able to operate over the last 10 months or so (at the very least things like gigs, large scale spectator sports events etc) so furlough (or something similar) would have had to be done to avoid entire industries and large employers collapsing.

 

[Lampshade]

The main rise in cases started in mid-September, which is much more consistent with schools than EOTHO (assuming ~5 days from infection to positive test).

Seconded - and as anyone who works in an office knows, it's the people with children in school that end up bringing colds/flu into the workplace.