New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

[Richard Scott]

Oh my word. That is the entire point that I was making, would you please go back and actually read what I wrote rather than what you think I wrote.

No, I've written a summary for you. That's much easier to read.

 

[tommy2215]

We were told by Johnson that there would be a review on 15th February and that the lockdown may be eased then. And now it seems according to the news on numerous media today, this lockdown is now going to last until at least Easter! And one of them is even saying the lockdown could last until at least JUNE!! I'm really struggling today after reading this news. Many millions of other will be feeling just the same. We can't bloody take this mental torture any longer.....

Can only hope the COVID Recovery Group put as much pressure on Boris as possible.

 

[52290]

First of all, It is the mirror, so take it with a pinch of salt. It is the left wing version of the sun (and this is coming from someone who is pretty highly left leaning).

Secondly, in terms of what is in the article, if accurate, then I think we really need to think about the options. For me at least, a longer lockdown but then the ability to actually travel to see my family at Easter would be much preferable to a shorter lockdown but then coming out into the tier system that prevents travel etc. The main issue I'd have is the fact I wouldn't trust the government to stick to that after the Christmas debacle.

Read Private Eye if you want to know all about the hypocrisy of the newspapers. There's a new edition out today with some juicy bits about the Sun's covid rules breaking Christmas party.

 

[35B]

Well there's pre existing immunity gained from other coronaviruses, which could be around 20% (look up research by Gabriela Gomes in particular, it's quite interesting).

As far as I'm aware, the 10% is just people showing antibodies - these fade after time, so T/B-cell immunity might well be much higher.

Many more people at Easter got COVID than we know of, because testing was terrible back then.

By simple guesswork, I could say that we are at maybe 40% coverage from natural means countrywide, and some pockets should already be at endemic state. But that again is just my hunch.

If there was no effect of the weather, then we would have seen much higher rates in the summer - certainly when I went into London, so many places were packed. I presume this was similar across the country in many cities.

It's a good discussion to have though as I've seen nothing specific academically about this, so I'm just going off my own hypotheses based on the data I see.

I still struggle with the moral implications of your hypothesis, given the number of deaths that Covid is causing right now.

 

[kristiang85]

I still struggle with the moral implications of your hypothesis, given the number of deaths that Covid is causing right now.

Well I struggle with the moral implications of the extreme interventions, given the number of avoidable non covid deaths and long term implications for people's physical and mental health and livelihoods.

But we shall agree to disagree on that.

 

[HSTEd]

Well my own moral position is "Would NICE have approved the lockdown strategyh as a public health intervention, on the basis of its existing cost benefit criteria?"

I'm pretty sure the answer is no.

 

[ChrisC]

Well, it absolutely beggers belief that they could possibly even consider keeping the national lockdown going in the form it is now until at least Easter! Why at least Easter? What happened to the tiered system we were supposed to be going back to? What happened to restrictions progressively eased? By mid February all the healthcare and deaths stats should really be coming down then week on week. By then the lockdown or tiered system really needs to start being eased and all these ridiculous restrictions. Johnson previously said life should be back to normal by Easter!

I was chatting to a neighbour this morning on the phone who helps out with lots of activities at the church in the village. What she told me worryingly does make me think that some of these newspaper articles suggesting that many of the current restrictions may be in place until Easter may not be too far from the truth.

Yesterday, the Church of England updated its website to include detailed guidelines for churches planning services during the weeks leading up to Easter including Good Friday on 2nd April. All rules of social distancing, risk assessments, mask wearing, hand sanitising, deep cleaning of buildings that are to be used again within 48 hours and no touching of objects that have been touched within 48 hours, no singing, sitting in household groups and no mingling etc all seem to be still in place as have been since churches were permitted to reopen on a limited basis from last July. She was quite upset as they have not really opened the church on any regular basis since it was closed last March. The regulations and guidelines for opening have just been too much for a small congregation of elderly and vulnerable people to put in place to safely open.

The reason I mention this is, if this has now been officially announced on the Church of England website, have the archbishops already had some indications from the government that restrictions at the current level may still have to be followed even going into April. After chatting to her, I have just been looking at the Church of England Website, and these guidelines for right up to Easter are now there.

 

[Cdd89]

They may, but it is not directly corrolatory. Using warm weather -> decline of virus as short hand for what is actually happening, misses out the crucial intermediate step that allows us to understand the regulation and moderataion of the process.

Even if you don’t think warmer weather directly reduces transmission (and personally, I do), there are multiple indirect behavioural effects that are undeniable, for example:

• People meet up outdoors more and do more outdoor activities
• People get their houses to a nice temperature by opening windows instead of closing them
• Windows are naturally kept open on buses

 

[duncanp]

I was chatting to a neighbour this morning on the phone who helps out with lots of activities at the church in the village. What she told me worryingly does make me think that some of these newspaper articles suggesting that many of the current restrictions may be in place until Easter may not be too far from the truth.

Yesterday, the Church of England updated its website to include detailed guidelines for churches planning services during the weeks leading up to Easter including Good Friday on 2nd April. All rules of social distancing, risk assessments, mask wearing, hand sanitising, deep cleaning of buildings that are to be used again within 48 hours and no touching of objects that have been touched within 48 hours, no singing, sitting in household groups and no mingling etc all seem to be still in place as have been since churches were permitted to reopen on a limited basis from last July. She was quite upset as they have not really opened the church on any regular basis since it was closed last March. The regulations and guidelines for opening have just been too much for a small congregation of elderly and vulnerable people to put in place to safely open.

The reason I mention this is, if this has now been officially announced on the Church of England website, have the archbishops already had some indications from the government that restrictions at the current level may still have to be followed even going into April. After chatting to her, I have just been looking at the Church of England Website, and these guidelines for right up to Easter are now there.

I am a regular church goer, and am completely cheesed off with the Church of England at the moment.

The Archbishop of Canterbury is one of the worst COVID bedwetters and lockdown enthusiasts that I know. When the government says "jump", he says "how high?"

Places of worship are allowed to open in the current lockdown, and yet the C of E hierarchy are allowing churches to close voluntarily rather than insisting that they keep open.

In the first lockdown, public worship was suspended before the government closed places of worship, and when they reopened the ARchbishop said that there was "no hurry" to reopen churches.

I am on the PCC (Parochial Church Council) of my local church, which runs the parish on a day to day basis, and we have had no indication that the current level of restrictions is going to continue after Easter.

So I suspect that all these regulations that have to be followed in order to keep churches open are, like many other places, completely pointless and only marginally effective. But we must be seen to be doing something, mustn't we?

 

[Bikeman78]

F-all for the rest of us then.

Sorry Prime Minister, but April before we're allowed out is too late for me.

I'm going to draw my line in the sand. I intend to ride on some 315s before they go in the bin at the May timetable change. I intend to go ahead whatever rules are in place. The most "dangerous" part of the trip will be the bike ride to the station.

 

[yorksrob]

I'm going to draw my line in the sand. I intend to ride on some 315s before they go in the bin at the May timetable change. I intend to go ahead whatever rules are in place. The most "dangerous" part of the trip will be the bike ride to the station.

Indeed. My abiding impression of the last year has been how safe an environment the railway system has been.

For myself, I intend to be out walking in April, enjoying the countryside/coast, for my own sanity, if nothing else.

 

[Bikeman78]

Exactly, given that they cancelled Christmas for London & the south east with 6 days notice, I hardly trust them not to suddenly change course a few days before Easter. Other papers are talking about Easter being Outdoor mixing only.

What planet is the government on if they think indoor mixing isn't already happening day in day our all over the country? For a start my neighbour has her son round to visit very weekend. My Mrs has a large family, numerous aunts, uncles, cousins, most of whom couldn't care less about Covid any more.

 

[brad465]

If some form of lockdown lasts until Easter or just before, it will not happen quietly: calls from affected businesses, chiefly hospitality and the arts, will turn into near-constant screaming in the media; the Tory backbenchers against all this will do the same in Parliament and the media too (Steve Baker already appears to be in early stages of a leadership challenge rally cry), and if we get even just a few days of nice weather near the end of March, the conditions exist for public protesting (there have been some small protests in this lockdown so far so I expect they'll continue, but won't say it'll be rioting just yet).

Furthermore if the current trend of decreasing infections, soon to be combined with decreasing deaths and hospitalisations as this vaccine rollout continues, all of the above have good foundations to make their feelings known.

 

[bramling]

What planet is the government on if they think indoor mixing isn't already happening day in day our all over the country? For a start my neighbour has her son round to visit very weekend. My Mrs has a large family, numerous aunts, uncles, cousins, most of whom couldn't care less about Covid any more.

I noticed my neighbour had extended family round today. To be fair he’s not massively pro-restriction, but they have been quite robustly shielding since last March to the extent they’ve barely left the house. Needless to say most of the road had people round at Christmas, despite being in tier 4.

 

[WelshBluebird]

and yet the C of E hierarchy are allowing churches to close voluntarily rather than insisting that they keep open.

Forgive me, but what exactly is wrong with that? Surely forcing all to stay open regardless of the wishes of the people who have to work there would be the wrong thing? Especially given what is probably the average age! Giving the choice to each church and not mandating either option is probably the best option!

 

[Philip]

Could do with having some clarity from the government about the likely timescales of the gentle lifting of restrictions, and the criteria for doing so. The newspaper articles mentioned aren't helping with their headline-grabbing speculation about reopening at Easter etc. It just causes uncertainty and anxiety for people.

The initial criteria (relating to hitting the vaccine target by mid-February) seems to have become vague, with comments that 'it is unlikely there will be any significant easements before April' now circulating the news. What other criteria need to be met? Case numbers? R rate? Hospital admissions? Total number in hospitals? The government need to be clear about what to and what not to expect come 8th March, obviously subject to the specified criteria being met.

 

[35B]

I am a regular church goer, and am completely cheesed off with the Church of England at the moment.

The Archbishop of Canterbury is one of the worst COVID bedwetters and lockdown enthusiasts that I know. When the government says "jump", he says "how high?"

Places of worship are allowed to open in the current lockdown, and yet the C of E hierarchy are allowing churches to close voluntarily rather than insisting that they keep open.

In the first lockdown, public worship was suspended before the government closed places of worship, and when they reopened the ARchbishop said that there was "no hurry" to reopen churches.

I am on the PCC (Parochial Church Council) of my local church, which runs the parish on a day to day basis, and we have had no indication that the current level of restrictions is going to continue after Easter.

So I suspect that all these regulations that have to be followed in order to keep churches open are, like many other places, completely pointless and only marginally effective. But we must be seen to be doing something, mustn't we?

I am on the PCC of a church that has maintained services when possible, including (where possible) use of a choir. The measures required to support being open - which are in reality no more than is expected of anywhere else that is open to the public - are not especially onerous, but do require volunteers to be willing and able to commit time to maintaining things within "Covid secure" guidelines.

I firmly believe churches should have been able to remain open, even if only for private prayer, in the first lockdown and that the CofE made the wrong call. But I would be equally opposed to a measure that required all churches to be kept open for prayer and/or services regardless of the ability of that church's congregation to support opening.

As for setting out measures to last until Easter, I welcome clarity over how we should plan. For churches planning their services through Lent and into Easter, which is after all a more important (if less popular) festival than Christmas, having clarity that we must plan our services and events on the basis of current restrictions is welcome clarity. If restrictions are lifted earlier, then we can expand what we do, but it helps us manage the risk of organising something that is then closed down.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 Jan 2021 ==

Could do with having some clarity from the government about the likely timescales of the gentle lifting of restrictions. The newspaper articles mentioned aren't helping with their headline-grabbing speculation about reopening at Easter etc. It just causes uncertainty and anxiety for people.

I'd love greater clarity, but we saw where that led to in December when circumstances changed for the worse. I don't expect clarity over the dates, but I would appreciate clarity over the criteria that need to be met for the restrictions to be eased and ultimately lifted.

As for the media, speculation sells papers.

 

[jtuk]

Indeed. My abiding impression of the last year has been how safe an environment the railway system has been.

I wouldn't know. I've not taken a train since March, as there's not been a single second since then where there's both been the ability to travel on a train in comfort, and something worthwhile to travel to.

 

[notlob.divad]

Even if you don’t think warmer weather directly reduces transmission (and personally, I do), there are multiple indirect behavioural effects that are undeniable, for example:

• People meet up outdoors more and do more outdoor activities
• People get their houses to a nice temperature by opening windows instead of closing them
• Windows are naturally kept open on buses

And it is my arguement that there is no reason why we, as human beings with freedom of choice, cannot de-link the latter human behaviours, from the former climatic conditions, by the choices we make.

As I stated at the start. If it was simply down to warm weather, you would not be getting spikes in transmission and the development of new more transmissable mutations in the Southern Hemisphere during what is their summer.

 

[joncombe]

If some form of lockdown lasts until Easter or just before, it will not happen quietly: calls from affected businesses, chiefly hospitality and the arts, will turn into near-constant screaming in the media; the Tory backbenchers against all this will do the same in Parliament and the media too (Steve Baker already appears to be in early stages of a leadership challenge rally cry),

Do you really believe this will happen? I'd like to, but I feel that if it was going to, it would have done so by now. This has been going on close to a year now.

We were told lockdown for 3 weeks to flatten the curve. Then we'll send covid packing in 12 weeks. Normality by the autumn. Near normality with this "Moonshot" or whatever it was. A normal Christmas. Then normality by Easter. Now it seems to be moving to "we might start to life some restrictions by Easter, but only if your good".

There is never an end in sight. Yet most of the population seem to be happy to go along with it, strung along with promises of normality in a few months that NEVER happen. All the enjoyment has been taken out of life and most of the population is just existing from one day to the next it seems.

I'd love to have an end in sight to this, but it doesn't seem to be getting any nearer and there doesn't seem to be anyone trustworthy. I am not sure I can stand it much longer.

 

[duncanp]

I am not sure I can stand it much longer.

There must be many other people who share the same sentiment as you, and this is why I believe that there will be an increasing pushback against continuing the lockdown.

To cut the government some slack, they did not know the timing and extent of the second wave in September, and they could not have foreseen the precise nature of the new strain of the virus which emerged just before Christmas.

But as the figures improve, and the vaccination program progresses, it is going to be more and more difficult to justify maintaining restrictions, to the extent that it will eventually become impossible.

 

[bramling]

Do you really believe this will happen? I'd like to, but I feel that if it was going to, it would have done so by now. This has been going on close to a year now.

We were told lockdown for 3 weeks to flatten the curve. Then we'll send covid packing in 12 weeks. Normality by the autumn. Near normality with this "Moonshot" or whatever it was. A normal Christmas. Then normality by Easter. Now it seems to be moving to "we might start to life some restrictions by Easter, but only if your good".

There is never an end in sight. Yet most of the population seem to be happy to go along with it, strung along with promises of normality in a few months that NEVER happen. All the enjoyment has been taken out of life and most of the population is just existing from one day to the next it seems.

I'd love to have an end in sight to this, but it doesn't seem to be getting any nearer and there doesn't seem to be anyone trustworthy. I am not sure I can stand it much longer.

I’m definitely picking up a sense from the media that there’s the expectation of the current lockdown dragging on longer than first thought (what a surprise!).

However there are increasing signs that the population is growing restless. Apart from the continuing “interesting” compliance with the stay at home, more and more business owners round here are putting snotty posts on Facebook or in their front windows. Doing some hotel booking in the last week I’ve found some very vitriolic stuff aimed at the WAG and Drakeford - the gist being “we spend a lot of money doing everything you asked us to do, and you still shafted us”.

These voices are only going to get louder, but equally there’s still people loving WFH.

 

[6862]

Do you really believe this will happen? I'd like to, but I feel that if it was going to, it would have done so by now. This has been going on close to a year now.

We were told lockdown for 3 weeks to flatten the curve. Then we'll send covid packing in 12 weeks. Normality by the autumn. Near normality with this "Moonshot" or whatever it was. A normal Christmas. Then normality by Easter. Now it seems to be moving to "we might start to life some restrictions by Easter, but only if your good".

There is never an end in sight. Yet most of the population seem to be happy to go along with it, strung along with promises of normality in a few months that NEVER happen. All the enjoyment has been taken out of life and most of the population is just existing from one day to the next it seems.

I'd love to have an end in sight to this, but it doesn't seem to be getting any nearer and there doesn't seem to be anyone trustworthy. I am not sure I can stand it much longer.

You've put it well and I have to agree with you. I genuinely believe we are living in the 'new normal' that Boris and co have been going on about for 10 months. I really think a national Tier 2 or 3 is as good as its going to get.

 

[bramling]

You've put it well and I have to agree with you. I genuinely believe we are living in the 'new normal' that Boris and co have been going on about for 10 months. I really think this national Tier 2 or 3 is as good as its going to get.

I do get a sense that the goalposts keep being moved to the right. Look at how many times furlough has been “about to end”.

When we need to start really worrying is perhaps if anything comes on the news intimating that there’s issues with the vaccines. Sky were already taking great delight yesterday in reporting the Israel news that the single dose strategy may not be as effective as initially hoped.

 

[Yew]

And it is my arguement that there is no reason why we, as human beings with freedom of choice, cannot de-link the latter human behaviours, from the former climatic conditions, by the choices we make.

I think I'll pass on heading to a beer garden in my t-shirt and shorts in the current weather, thanks.

 

[brad465]

Do you really believe this will happen? I'd like to, but I feel that if it was going to, it would have done so by now. This has been going on close to a year now.

We were told lockdown for 3 weeks to flatten the curve. Then we'll send covid packing in 12 weeks. Normality by the autumn. Near normality with this "Moonshot" or whatever it was. A normal Christmas. Then normality by Easter. Now it seems to be moving to "we might start to life some restrictions by Easter, but only if your good".

There is never an end in sight. Yet most of the population seem to be happy to go along with it, strung along with promises of normality in a few months that NEVER happen. All the enjoyment has been taken out of life and most of the population is just existing from one day to the next it seems.

I'd love to have an end in sight to this, but it doesn't seem to be getting any nearer and there doesn't seem to be anyone trustworthy. I am not sure I can stand it much longer.

I get where you're coming from, but all things authoritarian and extreme boil over eventually, whether that happens tomorrow, in March or in 2022. We can't do anything more than speculate for the next month or so to see how this might end. If by the lockdown anniversary the Covid situation has died down a lot, but there's no end in sight and the population cotton onto the narrative still, then we're practically screwed.

Beyond the anniversary is also when the fallout will become more apparent, and I believe the media's love of sensationalising events and negative revelations for profit works both ways: they've been doing it plenty with Covid's direct effects, but I can see them doing the same with all the costs of our strategy, but only when Covid infections and deaths are much lower. This front page from the Metro back in October suggests it can happen, but I don't see this happening again until at least March:

 

[duncanp]

You've put it well and I have to agree with you. I genuinely believe we are living in the 'new normal' that Boris and co have been going on about for 10 months. I really think a national Tier 2 or 3 is as good as its going to get.

Having a national tier 2 on a long term basis is not sustainable economically or socially. There will eventually be a point where we simply will not be able to afford the furlough scheme any longer.

Tier 2 or Tier 3 on an indefinite basis will involve restrictions on families meeting indoors and other gatherings.

People might be prepared to tolerate this on a short term basis, but if they are told "no seeing your family for the next two years", compliance will start to break down and eventually become non existent.

And if heavy restrictions are still in place at the time of the local and national elections in May, all the governments of the UK will be taught a lesson at the ballot box. This is the one thing that will make them listen.

I do get a sense that the goalposts keep being moved to the right. Look at how many times furlough has been “about to end”.

When we need to start really worrying is perhaps if anything comes on the news intimating that there’s issues with the vaccines. Sky were already taking great delight yesterday in reporting the Israel news that the single dose strategy may not be as effective as initially hoped.

The news from Israel that the single dose strategy may not be as effective as initially hoped is based on evidence of transmissibility three weeks after receiving the first dose.

Sir Patrick Vallance was quoted as saying that immunity from the first dose doesn't just happen overnight and takes time to build up, eventually reaching the 90% figure quoted. He also said that Israel will never get to see how effective the single dose strategy will be, as they are carrying on with the policy of a second dose after three weeks.

 

[6862]

Having a national tier 2 on a long term basis is not sustainable economically or socially. There will eventually be a point where we simply will not be able to afford the furlough scheme any longer.

Tier 2 or Tier 3 on an indefinite basis will involve restrictions on families meeting indoors and other gatherings.

People might be prepared to tolerate this on a short term basis, but if they are told "no seeing your family for the next two years", compliance will start to break down and eventually become non existent.

And if heavy restrictions are still in place at the time of the local and national elections in May, all the governments of the UK will be taught a lesson at the ballot box. This is the one thing that will make them listen.

But what makes you think our Lords and Masters care one jot about any of this? They clearly don't care about stopping families meeting, destroying the economy or killing off entire industries. And about the elections - I'll eat my hat if they happen at all!

 

[brad465]

But what makes you think our Lords and Masters care one jot about any of this? They clearly don't care about stopping families meeting, destroying the economy or killing off entire industries. And about the elections - I'll eat my hat if they happen at all!

I expect the elections to be delayed, but doing so will only make support for the Government worse in the long run. It will also give London Mayoral Candidate Shaun Bailey an extreme dilemma, as the Tory candidate he obviously wants to try and take over from Khan, but his own party in Westminster are denying him and his voters the chance to do so (the same will apply for Tory supporters in the Scottish and Welsh devolved administrations if they're also delayed). It won't be a quiet postponement to say the least (in terms of how people react to it).

 

[duncanp]

But what makes you think our Lords and Masters care one jot about any of this? They clearly don't care about stopping families meeting, destroying the economy or killing off entire industries. And about the elections - I'll eat my hat if they happen at all!

You can't put off elections for ever.

If the United States can hold an election in the middle of the pandemic, then there is no reason why we can't do the same.

They may not care about destroying the economy now, but eventually something will happen to make them care.

I am old enough to remember the inner city riots of 1981, and most people will be aware of the riots that happened in the summer of 2011.

Sooner or later something will happen to set off another series of protests. Almost every week we are seeing anti lockdown demonstrations happening up and down the country.