New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

[notlob.divad]

then as days lengthen it will get naturally depressed to low levels.

Stop repeating this nonsense. The virus doesn't care what date of the year it is, how long the daylight hours are, or what the weather is like. It responds to people and their actions. If people hole up indoors either because the nights are dark and its a bit wet and rainy, or because it is too hot and they want the cool of being indoors and shelter from the sun, it will have the same effect in increasing the transmission. But humans have the ability to break that corrolation by adjusting their behaviour.

If what you say was true, South Africa and Brazil would not currently be having some of the biggest spikes in transmission, with new variants and mutations.

 

[duncanp]

Stop repeating this nonsense. The virus doesn't care what date of the year it is, how long the daylight hours are, or what the weather is like. It responds to people and their actions. If people hole up indoors either because the nights are dark and its a bit wet and rainy, or because it is too hot and they want the cool of being indoors and shelter from the sun, it will have the same effect in increasing the transmission. But humans have the ability to break that corrolation by adjusting their behaviour.

If what you say was true, South Africa and Brazil would not currently be having some of the biggest spikes in transmission, with new variants and mutations.

But respiratory viruses do tend to decline when the weather gets warmer.

This is borne out by years of experience with the flu and other coronaviruses such as SARS and MERS.

Only time will tell the extent to which COVID-19 will decline when the weather gets warmer.

 

[notlob.divad]

But respiratory viruses do tend to decline when the weather gets warmer.

This is borne out by years of experience with the flu and other coronaviruses such as SARS and MERS.

Only time will tell the extent to which COVID-19 will decline when the weather gets warmer.

They may, but it is not directly corrolatory. Using warm weather -> decline of virus as short hand for what is actually happening, misses out the crucial intermediate step that allows us to understand the regulation and moderataion of the process.

In a similar way to famous corrolation between people who die of drowning vs recent consumption of ice-cream. Yes there is a corrolation there but without putting the intermediate step in we draw completly the wong conclusions. Once the incorrect notion is bedded into society, as this evidenced by the repeated false statements on this message board, it leads to the wrong actions being taken because false assumptions are made.

 

[Islineclear3_1]

How is drowning correlated with recent consumption of ice cream?

 

[Class 33]

I try and avoid The Mirror website now. But just had a look on there and it reports lockdown won't be eased until at least Easter! This is just ridiculous and stupidity beyond belief if this turns out to be the case. At least a THREE MONTH national lockdown! No consideration it seems given to the further catastrophic damage this will do to the economy and the mental health effects of MILLIONS of people! I for one, just don't know how much more of all this I can take.

Lockdown to last until at least Good Friday as PM makes 'top secret' Easter plan

It was initially hoped the current lockdown in England would ease on February 22 with schools opening and tiers returning - but that now looks increasingly unlikely and it could last until April

www.mirror.co.uk

Lockdown to last until Good Friday at the earliest as PM makes 'top secret' Easter plans​

It was initially hoped the current lockdown in England would ease on February 22 with schools opening and tiers returning - but that now looks increasingly unlikely and it could last until April

Tough lockdown restrictions will last until at least Good Friday with Boris Johnson making "top secret" plans for an Easter easing of rules so families can mix, according to reports.

However, it is understood even this date could look optimistic if the vaccine rollout runs into significant difficulties.

Ministers are said to have warned that with the exception of schools, there is unlikely to be any relaxation of the current measures by the upcoming review point in the middle of next month.

Originally, the current lockdown was expected to ease on February 22 with schools opening and England returning to a tier system.

It comes after new figures showed the UK had suffered its biggest single day jump in virus deaths of the pandemic yesterday after another 1,610 fatalities were confirmed.

The Prime Minister said when he announced the lockdown: “I hope we can steadily move out of lockdown, reopening schools after the February half term and starting, cautiously, to move regions down the tiers.”

He later admitted 'a lot of things have to go right' for lockdown to start easing by then, and Dominic Raab warned there would not be a single 'big bang' when restrictions do end.

Mr Johnson had also claimed that restrictions would be substantially lifted by Easter Sunday.

The PM said: “I think we can certainly look forward to a very, very different world in this country, from Easter onwards."

The latest target for any significant lifting of the lockdown is now Good Friday on April 2, according to The Sun.

And top secret plans are said to be being drawn up at Downing Street for people to meet up with their families over Easter.

A source told the newspaper: "It's way too soon to start talking about when, but the work is being done quietly on the how."

 

[WelshBluebird]

I try and avoid The Mirror website now. But just had a look on there and it reports lockdown won't be eased until at least Easter! This is just ridiculous and stupidity beyond belief if this turns out to be the case. At least a THREE MONTH national lockdown! No consideration it seems given to the further catastrophic damage this will do to the economy and the mental health effects of MILLIONS of people! I for one, just don't know how much more of all this I can take.

First of all, It is the mirror, so take it with a pinch of salt. It is the left wing version of the sun (and this is coming from someone who is pretty highly left leaning).

Secondly, in terms of what is in the article, if accurate, then I think we really need to think about the options. For me at least, a longer lockdown but then the ability to actually travel to see my family at Easter would be much preferable to a shorter lockdown but then coming out into the tier system that prevents travel etc. The main issue I'd have is the fact I wouldn't trust the government to stick to that after the Christmas debacle.

 

[Islineclear3_1]

Cue more businesses going to the wall and more mass non-compliance

 

[chris11256]

First of all, It is the mirror, so take it with a pinch of salt. It is the left wing version of the sun.

Secondly, in terms of what is in the article, if accurate, then I think we really need to think about the options. For me at least, a longer lockdown but then the ability to actually travel to see my family at Easter would be much preferable to a shorter lockdown but then coming out into the tier system that prevents travel etc. The main issue I'd have is the fact I wouldn't trust the government to stick to that after the Christmas debacle.

Exactly, given that they cancelled Christmas for London & the south east with 6 days notice, I hardly trust them not to suddenly change course a few days before Easter. Other papers are talking about Easter being Outdoor mixing only. In a less cynical view, perhaps the Government are taking their time, because they know that once the easing starts this time round, there's no going back into lockdown/heavy restrictions.

I'd still be very surprised if schools open next month. At my school we're working on the basis of reopening after Easter, although we're a sixth form so will probably be opening later/last anyway.

 

[Islineclear3_1]

First of all, It is the mirror, so take it with a pinch of salt. It is the left wing version of the sun (and this is coming from someone who is pretty highly left leaning).

Not just the mirror, lots of media are reporting similar news

I would hope the areas where rates are falling will have restrictions eased by then

 

[Class 33]

That's why I try and avoid the likes of The Mirror and others for doom mongering stories like this. But I happened to have a quick look just now and couldn't believe what I saw.

Well, it absolutely beggers belief that they could possibly even consider keeping the national lockdown going in the form it is now until at least Easter! Why at least Easter? What happened to the tiered system we were supposed to be going back to? What happened to restrictions progressively eased? By mid February all the healthcare and deaths stats should really be coming down then week on week. By then the lockdown or tiered system really needs to start being eased and all these ridiculous restrictions. Johnson previously said life should be back to normal by Easter!

I am sick of Johnson and his cabinet saying things and giving us real hope such as "Life should be back to normal by Easter" and then backtracking on that and moving the goalposts further. They are playing mind games on millions of people in this country. They are playing with real people's lives.

By around mid to late March/early April we might have decent warm sunny weather. And if this "Stay at home. Protect the NHS. Save Lives" slogan nonsense is still in force then, I really can't see many people sticking to that atall. Many people will want to get out and about and enjoy the weather, not stuck at home!

 

[duncanp]

In a less cynical view, perhaps the Government are taking their time, because they know that once the easing starts this time round, there's no going back into lockdown/heavy restrictions.

I think this is true, as the government know that people are not going to tolerate any more moving up the tiers once an area has moved down.

The Sun are taking a slightly different slant on it, in that they say Easter will be the earliest date for a significant easing of restrictions.

That means there could be some easing of restrictions in early March, and then more easing of restrictions at or just before Easter (ie. around the anniversary of the first lockdown)

As I said earlier today, there is a lot of expectation management going on, so that when the actual easing of restrictions happens, people will be grateful.

With reference to another current news story, I think the locktivists are rather like Donald Trump. They realise that their days are numbered, and are becoming increasingly inclined to ranting and raving to try and make themselves relevant.

The business section of the Telegraph are also reporting that pubs and restaurants are demanding that, when they open, they are allowed to operate with restrictions similar to those that were in place when they reopened last July. (ie no silly and pointless rules about 10pm closing time, substantial meals in order to get a beer, masks when moving around the pub, and no household mixing inside the pub.)

 

[notlob.divad]

How is drowning correlated with recent consumption of ice cream?

Ice cream consumption and death by drowning have a very strong corrolation. Both increase when the weather gets warm.
Warm weather -> people being hotter -> more people want to cool down with a tasty treat -> more ice-cream consumption
Warm weather -> people being hotter -> more people going for a swim -> more people drowning

plotting ice cream consumption against people drowning will give a very stong corrolation, without causation. It is important to differentiate.

How Ice Cream Kills: Understanding Cause and Effect

Like most people I enjoy a tasty scoop of ice cream, especially Oreo blizzards, but what few people realize is how dangerous a treat ice cream has become. First there is the issue of obesity, second...

www.decisionskills.com

How Ice Cream Kills: Understanding Cause and Effect

You could add to this.
Warm weather, -> more people outside -> reduced transmission paths for viral spread -> reduced covid-19 deaths.

and get an inverse corrolation between Ice cream consumption and covid deaths.

So should we all eat more Ice-Cream to save people from Covid? No because it is patently absurd.

But should we all modify our natural behaviour and go outside in the fresh air, even though the weather is not the best? Well actually - yes, that probably isn't such a bad idea. Just don't then go congregating indoors with other to warm up again.

 

[Class 33]

Well, it looks like the festivals and events industry this summer looks like it could be completely wiped out for the second year in a row. Because they're going to drag out this lockdown and silly restrictions for however many more months.

Theatres were due to be reopening on 30th April without social distancing requirements. Doesn't look like that will happen now either!

I absolutely despair what damage Johnson is doing to this country. He's absolutely wrecking it for millions of people.

 

[Islineclear3_1]

@notlob.divad

Um... you haven't shown proper evidence that eating ice cream correlates to drowning, you've just lifted the author's words.

Where is the evidence (from the ice cream manufacturer) and studies to prove that eating ice cream can increase the risk of drowning?

Even the author diverts away and writes about the correlation to obesity

 

[kristiang85]

I feel like I should post one of my favourite websites here: https://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations

More on topic...

Stop repeating this nonsense. The virus doesn't care what date of the year it is, how long the daylight hours are, or what the weather is like. It responds to people and their actions. If people hole up indoors either because the nights are dark and its a bit wet and rainy, or because it is too hot and they want the cool of being indoors and shelter from the sun, it will have the same effect in increasing the transmission. But humans have the ability to break that corrolation by adjusting their behaviour.

If what you say was true, South Africa and Brazil would not currently be having some of the biggest spikes in transmission, with new variants and mutations.

From the data I've seen, when a virus is new to a population it will indeed spread whatever the weather. When it becomes endemic, however, if it has seasonal characteristics it will then follow the usual pattern.

It seems very much that the countries who were effective at slowing it first time round are now suffering again, whatever the weather, because it had not reached the endemicity. Whereas places like the UK were pretty hammered early on, so we are most likely to see it being seasonal from now on in.

This is just my hypothesis, but it still ties in with that lockdowns just delay the inevitable, and in many cases make outcomes worse in the wider picture. Especially as the virus evolves to 'get around' the lockdown measures.

 

[35B]

@notlob.divad

Um... you haven't shown proper evidence that eating ice cream correlates to drowning, you've just lifted the author's words.

Where is the evidence (from the ice cream manufacturer) and studies to prove that eating ice cream can increase the risk of drowning?

Even the author diverts away and writes about the correlation to obesity

Yes, because he’s demonstrated a correlation between eating ice cream and drowning, not that eating ice cream causes drowning. Which is kind of important to understand when people produce numbers saying that x causes y, as you need a bit more than that to be able to accept that the relationship is anything more than a coincidence. Which is then where the obesity data is interesting in that article, because the data on ice cream consumption and weight gain could be used to suggest ice cream is a diet food.

 

[ainsworth74]

@notlob.divad

Um... you haven't shown proper evidence that eating ice cream correlates to drowning, you've just lifted the author's words.

Where is the evidence (from the ice cream manufacturer) and studies to prove that eating ice cream can increase the risk of drowning?

Even the author diverts away and writes about the correlation to obesity

Unless I miss a trick there isn't any evidence and that's the point. The stats show that as more people consume ice cream the number of drownings increase, a correlation. But the two are independent of each other and advising someone to avoid eating ice cream to reduce their risk of drowning is obviously absurd. What you should do is advise people to avoid swimming in open bodies of water/rivers/etc which is something that people do when the weather gets warmer just as they tend to eat ice cream more.

@notlob.divad is therefore advancing the view that warm weather and a reduction in Covid cases is a similar correlation that just because the weather gets warmer doesn't mean the virus miraculously disappears instead the cause of the reduction in the virus is more likely to be linked to other factors such as people spending more time outside, being in beer gardens rather than inside pubs, etc etc.

 

[35B]

I feel like I should post one of my favourite websites here: https://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations

More on topic...



From the data I've seen, when a virus is new to a population it will indeed spread whatever the weather. When it becomes endemic, however, if it has seasonal characteristics it will then follow the usual pattern.

It seems very much that the countries who were effective at slowing it first time round are now suffering again, whatever the weather, because it had not reached the endemicity. Whereas places like the UK were pretty hammered early on, so we are most likely to see it being seasonal from now on in.

This is just my hypothesis, but it still ties in with that lockdowns just delay the inevitable, and in many cases make outcomes worse in the wider picture. Especially as the virus evolves to 'get around' the lockdown measures.

I don’t understand the maths of that if only about 10% of the population have had Covid - that leaves a large population still to be exposed to Covid before it becomes endemic and could settle down to the pattern you propose.

 

[Dave91131]

Well, it looks like the festivals and events industry this summer looks like it could be completely wiped out for the second year in a row. Because they're going to drag out this lockdown and silly restrictions for however many more months.

Theatres were due to be reopening on 30th April without social distancing requirements. Doesn't look like that will happen now either!

In my opinion you can add to those 2 things children having a normal education (i.e. without 'bubbles', masks, Covid tests, online learning and of course no educational trips) along with further misery for most non essential retail, air and coach companies, casinos, bowling alleys, and I'm sure a whole load more I can't reel off at this time.

I really hope I'm wrong for so many reasons, but this is another wash out of a year I fear.

 

[Yew]

So should we all eat more Ice-Cream to save people from Covid? No because it is patently absurd.
.

Thats the sort of unevidenced non-pharmaceutical intervention I can get behind

 

[brad465]

That's why I try and avoid the likes of The Mirror and others for doom mongering stories like this. But I happened to have a quick look just now and couldn't believe what I saw.

Well, it absolutely beggers belief that they could possibly even consider keeping the national lockdown going in the form it is now until at least Easter! Why at least Easter? What happened to the tiered system we were supposed to be going back to? What happened to restrictions progressively eased? By mid February all the healthcare and deaths stats should really be coming down then week on week. By then the lockdown or tiered system really needs to start being eased and all these ridiculous restrictions. Johnson previously said life should be back to normal by Easter!

I am sick of Johnson and his cabinet saying things and giving us real hope such as "Life should be back to normal by Easter" and then backtracking on that and moving the goalposts further. They are playing mind games on millions of people in this country. They are playing with real people's lives.

By around mid to late March/early April we might have decent warm sunny weather. And if this "Stay at home. Protect the NHS. Save Lives" slogan nonsense is still in force then, I really can't see many people sticking to that atall. Many people will want to get out and about and enjoy the weather, not stuck at home!

If we are in some form of lockdown come the anniversary of the first lockdown (23rd March), don't expect it to pass quietly, especially if infection levels are much lower and vaccination levels have gone up nicely by then. The CRG will be very vocal and I suspect many businesses and business groups that are suffering will also get more vocal, especially with the Budget on the 3rd March revealing the scale of all this financially.

 

[kristiang85]

I don’t understand the maths of that if only about 10% of the population have had Covid - that leaves a large population still to be exposed to Covid before it becomes endemic and could settle down to the pattern you propose.

Well there's pre existing immunity gained from other coronaviruses, which could be around 20% (look up research by Gabriela Gomes in particular, it's quite interesting).

As far as I'm aware, the 10% is just people showing antibodies - these fade after time, so T/B-cell immunity might well be much higher.

Many more people at Easter got COVID than we know of, because testing was terrible back then.

By simple guesswork, I could say that we are at maybe 40% coverage from natural means countrywide, and some pockets should already be at endemic state. But that again is just my hunch.

If there was no effect of the weather, then we would have seen much higher rates in the summer - certainly when I went into London, so many places were packed. I presume this was similar across the country in many cities.

It's a good discussion to have though as I've seen nothing specific academically about this, so I'm just going off my own hypotheses based on the data I see.

 

[notlob.divad]

Where is the evidence (from the ice cream manufacturer) and studies to prove that eating ice cream can increase the risk of drowning?

There isn't thats the whole point. Corrolation v's causation. It corrolates, but there is no direct cause so there is nothing to prove.

Um... you haven't shown proper evidence that eating ice cream correlates to drowning, you've just lifted the author's words.

Even the author diverts away and writes about the correlation to obesity

Corrolations of Ice-Creams consumption to other activites that increase/decrease during warm weather is a widley read and discussed topic in many areas of data analysis to warn people against drawing false conclussions. If you want to see the full proofs go and open a school text book on the subject. It is not my job to re-teach the world the basics scientific principles that should have been learnt during high school science lessons or at the very least A-level.

 

[Richard Scott]

There isn't thats the whole point. Corrolation v's causation. It corrolates, but there is no direct cause so there is nothing to prove.



Corrolations of Ice-Creams consumption to other activites that increase/decrease during warm weather is a widley read and discussed topic in many areas of data analysis to warn people against drawing false conclussions. If you want to see the full proofs go and open a school text book on the subject. It is not my job to re-teach the world the basics scientific principles that should have been learnt during high school science lessons or at the very least A-level.

Ok, a school text book will tell you to look at independent, dependent and control variables. Control variables very important as otherwise not scientific. How many wayward control variables are there in this one?

 

[Class 33]

In my opinion you can add to those 2 things children having a normal education (i.e. without 'bubbles', masks, Covid tests, online learning and of course no educational trips) along with further misery for most non essential retail, air and coach companies, casinos, bowling alleys, and I'm sure a whole load more I can't reel off at this time.

I really hope I'm wrong for so many reasons, but this is another wash out of a year I fear.

Indeed. Absolutely loads of types of businesses this is still going to effect. Many of them will go under and be unable to return. It's absolutely dreadful.

If indeed this national lockdown is going to definitely continue until at least Easter, then what an earth happened to the lockdown/restrictions review that was supposed to be taking place on 15th February? And further reviews that were supposed to be happening every few weeks after that? It will be absolutely insanity and madness to keep this lockdown going until at least Easter without any easing.

 

[Islineclear3_1]

Ok got it now!

Tired after a few long days on the front line...

 

[Yew]

As far as I'm aware, the 10% is just people showing antibodies - these fade after time, so T/B-cell immunity might well be much higher.

Indeed, the University of Manchester were suggesting that 25% had had it back in the Summer.

 

[tommy2215]

The news that the UK supposedly has the world's highest death rate probably terrified the Government into making this lockdown last for as long as they can get away with it. Which will be quite a long time given the widespread support for lockdown atm.

 

[notlob.divad]

Ok, a school text book will tell you to look at independent, dependent and control variables. Control variables very important as otherwise not scientific. How many wayward control variables are there in this one?

Oh my word. That is the entire point that I was making, would you please go back and actually read what I wrote rather than what you think I wrote.

 

[Class 33]

The news that the UK supposedly has the world's highest death rate probably terrified the Government into making this lockdown last for as long as they can get away with it. Which will be quite a long time given the widespread support for lockdown atm.

Yes, it's terrible the UK having the highest death rate. But we've got all these millions of vaccinations that have started now and will continue on for months to come. By March all the hospital admissions/numbers in hospitals/deaths should really be tumbling down week on week. The lockdown should really start easing by then. And by April/May, all these stats should be very very low. By then, the lockdown and/or tiered system should have been completely lifted, along with all these ridiculous restrictions which are wrecking absolute havoc with the economy and millions of people's mental health. Many will be really struggling to get through this. We were told by Johnson that there would be a review on 15th February and that the lockdown may be eased then. And now it seems according to the news on numerous media today, this lockdown is now going to last until at least Easter! And one of them is even saying the lockdown could last until at least JUNE!! I'm really struggling today after reading this news. Many millions of other will be feeling just the same. We can't bloody take this mental torture any longer.....