New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

[yorksrob]

I still see a massive problem, unfortunately. Having scared elements of the population witless, managing the younger and middle-aged people is going to prove a problem, as they become surrounded in their unvaccinated state by increasing numbers of vaccinated people, in many cases no doubt keen to resume their normal activities. I cannot see how on earth they can reconcile this.

The Government will have no choice. When the vaccinated people resume their lives, younger and middle aged people will too. I don't see how they can stop them(us).

 

[hwl]

If there are any restrictions, they must be continuously reviewed and eased as soon as possible. Arbitrary time periods cause undue and unnecessary suffering.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 19 Jan 2021 ==


That doesn't matter, what matters if the can cope, not historical capacity. And that's before we consider that you failed to account for reductions in case loads due to restrictions. Our society cannot sacrifice everyones lives to ensure optimal conditions.

If you reduce restrictions too quickly then case numbers will rise with some eventually hospitalised and in ICU. With high seeding levels in communities as restrictions are remove case numbers will stop falling so sharply and then if too many restrictions removed start rising again. It is a careful balance.
I'm not sure that many have go their heads round the impact of the new strain on transmission. The US reckons the Kent 501 strain has between 44-52% greater transmission where it is in the US, PHE latest analysis is that the Kent strain daily growth rate is 6% higher than the older strain daily growth rates. The Kent strain is a harder adversary to deal with.
Some of the serge capacity has been created by using operating theatres and recovery areas so until that is unwound and a lot of the other ICU capacity available the NHS won't be able to carry out the levels of urgent surgery required that is currently being deferred, this isn't about optimal.

 

[bramling]

The Government will have no choice. When the vaccinated people resume their lives, younger and middle aged people will too. I don't see how they can stop them(us).

I agree that’s probably what will happen, but there will be immense anger when people realise that having put their life on hold for over a year, they’re quite likely going to have Covid thrust their way anyway. How some of the 30-something pro-lockdown types will receive that will be, er, interesting - especially if this coincides with the time they find their tax bill has increased!

 

[takno]

A 25% reduction from present levels would still be operating at more than pre-covid ICU capacity nationally. I think it is going to take a while to bring ICU admission down significantly by vaccination (much harder than reducing mortality) hence the government needing to use the other main lever and reduce case rates. If they need to carefully control case rates, the lifting of restrictions will be gradual and measured (as the government has indicated in the press conferences several times).

A 25% reduction, plus the massive reduction from the fact that numbers are going down enormously should free up a lot of capacity. Even if you believe the current level of lockdown is what is causing numbers to drop, then you'd have to concede that going down to level 2 would not lead to them going through the roof before you've done the over 60s as well. At that point you've covered off half the hospital admissions, and the problem is basically solved. We need to open up as soon as there is very little likelihood of services being overwhelmed.

 

[yorksrob]

I agree that’s probably what will happen, but there will be immense anger when people realise that having put their life on hold for over a year, they’re quite likely going to have Covid thrust their way anyway. How some of the 30-something pro-lockdown types will receive that will be, er, interesting - especially if this coincides with the time they find their tax bill has increased!

We (I'm a forty something) were always going to be a long way back in the queue for a vaccine. That should be no surprise to anyone.

 

[takno]

If you reduce restrictions too quickly then case numbers will rise with some eventually hospitalised and in ICU. With high seeding levels in communities as restrictions are remove case numbers will stop falling so sharply and then if too many restrictions removed start rising again. It is a careful balance.
I'm not sure that many have go their heads round the impact of the new strain on transmission. The US reckons the Kent 501 strain has between 44-52% greater transmission where it is in the US, PHE latest analysis is that the Kent strain daily growth rate is 6% higher than the older strain daily growth rates. The Kent strain is a harder adversary to deal with.
Some of the serge capacity has been created by using operating theatres and recovery areas so until that is unwound and a lot of the other ICU capacity available the NHS won't be able to carry out the levels of urgent surgery required that is currently being deferred, this isn't about optimal.

I think people get the facts about the faster spread perfectly well. I think they're also capable of reading the graphs, and of looking at the numbers of people who are out of the market for catching the disease, either through natural or vaccinated immunity.

We all agree that the ICU capacity needs to be wound back to its original purpose quickly, but I don't think you'll get a huge amount of support for keeping the country locked down for another month just so you can do that a couple of weeks early.

 

[bramling]

We (I'm a forty something) were always going to be a long way back in the queue for a vaccine. That should be no surprise to anyone.

I agree, it isn’t a surprise to me too. However I can bet a lot of people aren’t going to see it that way. How much noise they make and whether anyone will listen remains to be seen.

 

[yorksrob]

How much noise they make and whether anyone will listen remains to be seen.

As a sometime lockdown-sceptic, I would say to them "welcome to my world".

 

[Alex C.]

Given a lot of capacity has been 'created' by repurposing areas usually used for other purposes I suspect there will be some difficult decisions coming up in the short term - do we prioritise dealing with the backlog of non-covid work that has built up or do we reduce restrictions knowing the capacity for an increase in admissions is there but treatment for those on waiting lists could be delayed further? I don't think there's an easy answer to that.

 

[yorksrob]

Given a lot of capacity has been 'created' by repurposing areas usually used for other purposes I suspect there will be some difficult decisions coming up in the short term - do we prioritise dealing with the backlog of non-covid work that has built up or do we reduce restrictions knowing the capacity for an increase in admissions is there but treatment for those on waiting lists could be delayed further? I don't think there's an easy answer to that.

The easiest compromise would be to reduce restrictions on going places outdoors, as happened after lockdown 1. Even SAGE agree that transmission is a lot less likely outdoors. Not ideal, but a hell of a lot better than what we have now.

 

[bramling]

The easiest compromise would be to reduce restrictions on going places outdoors, as happened after lockdown 1. Even SAGE agree that transmission is a lot less likely outdoors. Not ideal, but a hell of a lot better than what we have now.

The difficulty with that is this will create surges in demand at places like beauty spots and beaches, and there’s a number of reasons why this is undesirable. In my view they would do better to simply open up everything at the same time, in particular non-essential shops and perhaps elements of hospitality like sit-in restaurants, to spread people out as far and wide as possible.

It doesn’t really look good to see the same old group of people - the furloughs - packing out the beaches, gridlocking local roads and leaving a mountain of rubbish to be cleared up behind them, whilst everyone else toils at work paying tax to subsidise the furlough handouts.

 

[yorksrob]

The difficulty with that is this will create surges in demand at places like beauty spots and beaches, and there’s a number of reasons why this is undesirable. In my view they would do better to simply open up everything at the same time, in particular non-essential shops and perhaps elements of hospitality like sit-in restaurants, to spread people out as far and wide as possible.

It doesn’t really look good to see the same old group of people - the furloughs - packing out the beaches, gridlocking local roads and leaving a mountain of rubbish to be cleared up behind them, whilst everyone else toils at work paying tax to subsidise the furlough handouts.

Well, that would work for me, believe me, however SAGE and their ilk seem determined to keep everything shut for as long as possible and I don't see that we can stop them.

Plus not everyone outside is on furlough. Lots of people have annual leave and would like to use it in a worthwhile way.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

If you reduce restrictions too quickly then case numbers will rise with some eventually hospitalised and in ICU. With high seeding levels in communities as restrictions are remove case numbers will stop falling so sharply and then if too many restrictions removed start rising again. It is a careful balance.
I'm not sure that many have go their heads round the impact of the new strain on transmission. The US reckons the Kent 501 strain has between 44-52% greater transmission where it is in the US, PHE latest analysis is that the Kent strain daily growth rate is 6% higher than the older strain daily growth rates. The Kent strain is a harder adversary to deal with.
Some of the serge capacity has been created by using operating theatres and recovery areas so until that is unwound and a lot of the other ICU capacity available the NHS won't be able to carry out the levels of urgent surgery required that is currently being deferred, this isn't about optimal.

Kent areas were the worst for weeks on end from November into late December case levels >1000/100k but many are down below 400 now and falling on a daily basis so this strain can be moderated. Also ONS are saying up to 1in8 have antibodies now in SE so along with vaccination now starting to build case levels will continue to decline and then as days lengthen it will get naturally depressed to low levels. Unfortunately the damage has been done already and as you say until NHS is running back at a manageable levels restrictions will stay on. I believe someone has sold PM that with vaccine coming we need to take more short term pain for better long term outcome which if fighting the virus is all that matters that fine but of course it isn't.

 

[bramling]

Well, that would work for me, believe me, however SAGE and their ilk seem determined to keep everything shut for as long as possible and I don't see that we can stop them.

Plus not everyone outside is on furlough. Lots of people have annual leave and would like to use it in a worthwhile way.

The trouble is it’s mixed messaging again. It can’t on the one hand be okay for beach-goers to pack out a train getting there, but on the other hand be terrible for a small group of people to have a baby-shower in a closed patisserie!

Normality should be normality, not the silly version where some people get a bumper rolling public holiday. That’s no good for anyone, not least those with annual leave who don’t want to find anywhere they go stuffed full of time-filling furloughs. You’re probably right though, it’s a safe bet we’ll see outdoor recreation prioritised ahead of shops and hospitality.

I still think people are going to react badly when they realise that they have been fed a message that Covid is a major risk to themselves, yet then are apparently thrown to the wolves once the elderly are vaccinated. The only conclusion many can draw from that is that they have been lied to, and that’s not going to be well received. This is going to make the government messaging very tricky over the next few months.

 

[takno]

I still think people are going to react badly when they realise that they have been fed a message that Covid is a major risk to themselves, yet then are apparently thrown to the wolves once the elderly are vaccinated. The only conclusion many can draw from that is that they have been lied to, and that’s not going to be well received. This is going to make the government messaging very tricky over the next few months.

Nonsense. Government messaging will be very easy: stick with the lie for a couple of months longer than is justified by anything. They can then pivot by opening a museum featuring a collage of pictures of all the old people who didn't die called "the museum of justified sacrifice", and call us all heroes. We may even be allowed to congratulate ourselves with a weekly clap.

(No idea how the quoting got messed up there, sorry)

 

[jtuk]

75% of Covid ICU admissions are under 70 so it will take a while for vaccinations to impact those.

What percentage of those are in ICU as a result of Covid, and what percentage are in ICU for something else but happened to have a positive test?

 

[bramling]

Nonsense. Government messaging will be very easy: stick with the lie for a couple of months longer than is justified by anything. They can then pivot by opening a museum featuring a collage of pictures of all the old people who didn't die called "the museum of justified sacrifice", and call us all heroes. We may even be allowed to congratulate ourselves with a weekly clap.

You may well be right given how easily manipulated some people have proven themselves to be!

However I’m not so sure this one will be so easy to reconcile, as all of a sudden people might find themselves thrust into situations which they haven’t been thusfar, for example forced back to work, and into situation where all of a sudden the “Covid safe” measures they’ve grown used to for the past year are no longer as relevant. I suppose one solution to this is a further extension of the furlough scheme...

 

[Domh245]

What percentage of those are in ICU as a result of Covid, and what percentage are in ICU for something else but happened to have a positive test?

A negligible amount I'd think. Given that just about everything has been cancelled (which would stop a lot of ICU admissions from post-op) and yet we're still seeing somewhere near double usual occupancy in places, I really don't think that argument hold. Maybe a small number of patients in acute beds are "with, but not for" covid, but ICU quite clearly is full of people because of covid.

And don't forget that ICU admissions tend not to be in a great way when admitted. If they happened to have a positive test upon admission (as opposed to having covid), I shouldn't think it long before they needed ICU care for covid of itself.

 

[chris11256]

Usual beware as it’s the Sun.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13791357/boris-johnson-top-secret-lockdown-ease-easter/ Mr Johnson is adamant to keep his tier system but it's likely that most of the country would automatically go back into Tier 4 - the highest level of restrictions with pubs and shops still shut - to begin with.

Apparently lockdown easing planning has begun. By default everyone goes into tier 4 with very slow motions down to tier 3 and such. Personally I’m not holding out much hope for Easter this year.

Although I’m not sure what difference tier 4 would make, as it’s no different to the current lockdown. Unless they plan tier 4 to include schools being open.

 

[Domh245]

Although I’m not sure what difference tier 4 would make, as it’s no different to the current lockdown. Unless they plan tier 4 to include schools being open.

Pretty much - the main difference would be schools, but there are some subtle messaging differences as well (for example, current restrictions are that exercise should be "once a day" whilst tier 4 has no such guidance, some easing around residential care visiting, no compulsory shielding advice, etc) but it would signify a step in the right direction if nothing else.

Expecting things to go from current restrictions to lower tiers straight off the bat is unrealistic (well, perhaps apart from Scilly) and IMO it's quite right that we start to get children back into school at the earliest possible opportunity

 

[yorksrob]

Although I’m not sure what difference tier 4 would make, as it’s no different to the current lockdown. Unless they plan tier 4 to include schools being open.

F-all for the rest of us then.

Sorry Prime Minister, but April before we're allowed out is too late for me.

 

[kristiang85]

Tier 3 I could live with, as I could escape this hellhole country to anywhere better.

Tier 4 makes no difference as far as I can tell, especially as schools seem to be treated separately, so I doubt their status will change. It is an easement in name only.

 

[chris11256]

According to the Telegraph, some
areas moving to tier 4 might happen in early March. Possibly to coincide with schools opening in those areas?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politic...nst-rush-reopen-covid-lockdown-say-ministers/ Early March earmarked for moving first areas out of lockdown – but only into toughest tiers of virus restrictions

 

[Dent]

According to the Telegraph, some
areas moving to tier 4 might happen in early March. Possibly to coincide with schools opening in those areas?

How can anywhere "move" to Tier 4 when everywhere is currently in Tier 4? That is not a move.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

What percentage of those are in ICU as a result of Covid, and what percentage are in ICU for something else but happened to have a positive test?

what is fact that 1 in 6 patients are acquiring Covid as a result of going into hospital

You may well be right given how easily manipulated some people have proven themselves to be!

However I’m not so sure this one will be so easy to reconcile, as all of a sudden people might find themselves thrust into situations which they haven’t been thusfar, for example forced back to work, and into situation where all of a sudden the “Covid safe” measures they’ve grown used to for the past year are no longer as relevant. I suppose one solution to this is a further extension of the furlough scheme...

Sunak was right first time round to cull furlough but he was out manoeuvred this time round he needs to make it stick as too many people and business owners are taking advantage and they need a reality check if they want to have a future that is anything close to what they've been used to.

 

[duncanp]

How can anywhere "move" to Tier 4 when everywhere is currently in Tier 4? That is not a move.

Exactly.

People will not be fooled by pretending that we are "moving out of lockdown into Tier 4"

But I can't help thinking that there is a bit of expectations management going on here.

In other words, the government is saying the first move out of lockdown will be to tier 4 to dampen down people's expectations.

Then when Boris announces a move to Tier 3 at the beginning of March we will all think the sun shines out of his backside, and we will forget all the mistakes he has made.

The decision on which tier people will move to at the beginning of March will be based on the data for the middle of February, which is still 4 weeks away.

So any headlines about "strict lockdown until Easter" are just pure speculation.

 

[Class 33]

Boris previously said that the tiered system has a "sunset" of 3rd February. And on 27th January there will be a vote in parliament as to whether the tiered system should continue until the end of March. Since that was announced though, the tiered system has gone and the national lockdown replacing it, which is due for review on 15th February. But what about a vote in parliament in that week as to whether the tiered system should continue until the end of March, that was originally intended for 27th January? I've not heard anything about it.

 

[Watershed]

Boris previously said that the tiered system has a "sunset" of 3rd February. And on 27th January there will be a vote in parliament as to whether the tiered system should continue until the end of March. Since that was announced though, the tiered system has gone and the national lockdown replacing it, which is due for review on 15th February. But what about a vote in parliament in that week as to whether the tiered system should continue until the end of March, that was originally intended for 27th January? I've not heard anything about it.

The Amendment Regulations effecting the third "lockdown" extended the validity of the All Tiers Regulations until the end of March.

Parliament has therefore already voted for the tier system to be extended.

 

[Class 33]

The Amendment Regulations effecting the third "lockdown" extended the validity of the All Tiers Regulations until the end of March.

Parliament has therefore already voted for the tier system to be extended.

Oh god, how absolutely ridiculous. I really can't believe the stupidity of this government and parliament. So at least another 9 weeks of this nonsense yet!

 

[duncanp]

Oh god, how absolutely ridiculous. I really can't believe the stupidity of this government and parliament. So at least another 9 weeks of this nonsense yet!

Although the regulations expire at the end of March, that doesn't mean that the current lockdown will continue until then.

All the indications seem to be that there will be some easing of the lockdown at the beginning of March, although to what extent the lockdown will be eased is still being worked out.

But legally, the whole of England is in Tier 4 at the moment, so the government cannot just pretend to release the whole country from lockdown into Tier 4. People will not be fooled by that.

I also think that when the regulations come up for renewal at the end of March, parliament will demand some kind of timetable or roadmap for easing the remaining lockdown restrictions.