New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

[Philip]

The positive case numbers are continuing to reduce fairly significantly, approx. 33000 today compared to approx. 45000 last Tuesday and approx. 37000 yesterday; and the week before the figures were well in the '50ks. Lockdown is clearly working in this sense, so let's hope we don't see a levelling off. I would hope good progress in vaccination along with these case numbers continuing to reduce will lead to easements in restrictions at the initial stated target of late February/early March, and ignoring bleak 'advice' from certain SAGE scientists.

 

[HST43257]

The positive case numbers are continuing to reduce fairly significantly, approx. 33000 today compared to approx. 45000 last Tuesday and approx. 37000 yesterday; and the week before the figures were well in the '50ks. Lockdown is clearly working in this sense, so let's hope we don't see a levelling off. I would hope good progress in vaccination along with these case numbers continuing to reduce will lead to easements in restrictions at the initial stated target of late February/early March, and ignoring bleak 'advice' from certain SAGE scientists.

It makes sense for cases to be reducing now, since its now 20 days since everyone (except Scilly) went into Tier 3 or 4. It should, on paper, just be families of cases getting covid now, plus some key workers.

I think we will come out of lockdown in a little less than or more than month and all into tier 4 restrictions, then reducing cautiously. Tiers in areas should be more grouped, so there isn’t a situation like before where Tier 3 people from the rest of Yorkshire would all come to York, which was in Tier 2. Instead, have all of Yorkshire in 1 tier, and the same in other regions.

 

[NorthOxonian]

It makes sense for cases to be reducing now, since its now 20 days since everyone (except Scilly) went into Tier 3 or 4. It should, on paper, just be families of cases getting covid now, plus some key workers.

I think we will come out of lockdown in a little less than or more than month and all into tier 4 restrictions, then reducing cautiously. Tiers in areas should be more grouped, so there isn’t a situation like before where Tier 3 people from the rest of Yorkshire would all come to York, which was in Tier 2. Instead, have all of Yorkshire in 1 tier, and the same in other regions.

Except Tier 4 restrictions are lockdown (and not even "lockdown in name only" - Tier 4 is now defined as the current restrictions). There will also be no sense of things getting better, which is what any move down the tiers should engender. Realistically when lockdown is eased, it will at worst be into Tier 3 everywhere (and more likely it will be Tier 2 in most places but Tier 3 in "hot spots"). I think any changes will be bigger (and a little further into the future) than you predict.

 

[Dent]

The positive case numbers are continuing to reduce fairly significantly, approx. 33000 today compared to approx. 45000 last Tuesday and approx. 37000 yesterday; and the week before the figures were well in the '50ks. Lockdown is clearly working in this sense, so let's hope we don't see a levelling off. I would hope good progress in vaccination along with these case numbers continuing to reduce will lead to easements in restrictions at the initial stated target of late February/early March, and ignoring bleak 'advice' from certain SAGE scientists.

Rather disingenuous to say "lockdown is clearly working" based on the available evidence. Given that the peak was before the lockdown started, the evidence points more towards it being unnecessary. Even if the peak were after the start of the lockdown, correlation does not prove causation.

 

[HST43257]

Except Tier 4 restrictions are lockdown (and not even "lockdown in name only" - Tier 4 is now defined as the current restrictions). There will also be no sense of things getting better, which is what any move down the tiers should engender. Realistically when lockdown is eased, it will at worst be into Tier 3 everywhere (and more likely it will be Tier 2 in most places but Tier 3 in "hot spots"). I think any changes will be bigger (and a little further into the future) than you predict.

Fair enough. Put everyone into tier 3 and wait 3 weeks before moving anyone up or down

 

[Philip]

Rather disingenuous to say "lockdown is clearly working" based on the available evidence. Given that the peak was before the lockdown started, the evidence points more towards it being unnecessary. Even if the peak were after the start of the lockdown, correlation does not prove causation.

You're completely wrong there. The peak was during the week when the lockdown started, but many areas were already in the lockdown in all but name tier 4 by then and the vast majority in at least tier 3. You're making a weak argument against very clear facts.

 

[packermac]

The positive case numbers are continuing to reduce fairly significantly, approx. 33000 today compared to approx. 45000 last Tuesday and approx. 37000 yesterday; and the week before the figures were well in the '50ks. Lockdown is clearly working in this sense, so let's hope we don't see a levelling off. I would hope good progress in vaccination along with these case numbers continuing to reduce will lead to easements in restrictions at the initial stated target of late February/early March, and ignoring bleak 'advice' from certain SAGE scientists.

Well if they hit their target the first four bands will be vaccinated by mid February, add 14-21 days for any sort of effectiveness achieves your date. But you still have those between 50 and 70 to vaccinate, so still a risk for the NHS re those needing hospital beds. Any easing I would suggest will be very small.

 

[Philip]

Well if they hit their target the first four bands will be vaccinated by mid February, add 14-21 days for any sort of effectiveness achieves your date. But you still have those between 50 and 70 to vaccinate, so still a risk for the NHS re those needing hospital beds. Any easing I would suggest will be very small.

But with case numbers reasonably low as well perhaps they might deem the risk of the NHS being quickly overwhelmed low enough to tentatively ease things; I'm thinking schools returning after the half term then in either the first or second week of March a return to tier 3 with 2-weekly reviews.

 

[hwl]

Well if they hit their target the first four bands will be vaccinated by mid February, add 14-21 days for any sort of effectiveness achieves your date. But you still have those between 50 and 70 to vaccinate, so still a risk for the NHS re those needing hospital beds. Any easing I would suggest will be very small.

75% of Covid ICU admissions are under 70 so it will take a while for vaccinations to impact those.

 

[bramling]

You're completely wrong there. The peak was during the week when the lockdown started, but many areas were already in the lockdown in all but name tier 4 by then and the vast majority in at least tier 3. You're making a weak argument against very clear facts.

Realistically the only thing which has changed in many areas is the schools being closed, however they’d already broken up by the latter half of December anyway.

 

[HSTEd]

75% of Covid ICU admissions are under 70 so it will take a while for vaccinations to impact those.

Unfortunately we don't know how mayn of those people are Clinically Extremely Vulnerable so we have no idea what will happen to admissions

 

[Philip]

Realistically the only thing which has changed in many areas is the schools being closed, however they’d already broken up by the latter half of December anyway.

The lockdown/restrictions take a couple of weeks before there's a notable difference, because of the long incubation period and the chain of transmission having to slowly fizzle out. If you take the last week of December as when the tier 4 started across most areas, then you're looking at the second week of January for things to start to improve notably, which is pretty much what's happened. A similar pattern happened over the first and second lockdowns.

I would say there is a little too much pinning on the vaccination progress in the media as to when lockdown ends, case numbers will be a factor too, as they were when the previous two lockdown were reviewed/lifted.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 19 Jan 2021 ==

Unfortunately we don't know how mayn of those people are Clinically Extremely Vulnerable so we have no idea what will happen to admissions

That's a good point, assuming all those in the 'extremely vulnerable' category have been vaccinated, then I think you can knock a huge amount more than 25% off the admissions.

 

[takno]

75% of Covid ICU admissions are under 70 so it will take a while for vaccinations to impact those.

And yet with cases falling off a cliff separately from the vaccinations, the 25% cut from the over 70s might well be plenty. We obviously need to get hospitals back on track rather than half-closed and reconfigured for Covid care, but it's not at all clear that that hospital admissions will provide any basis at all for an ongoing lockdown by mid-February.

 

[Dent]

The lockdown/restrictions take a couple of weeks before there's a notable difference, because of the long incubation period and the chain of transmission having to slowly fizzle out. If you take the last week of December as when the tier 4 started across most areas, then you're looking at the second week of January for things to start to improve notably, which is pretty much what's happened.

The peak by specimen date was on 28th December, not second week of January. Once you realise that, your narrative of the lockdown working falls apart as the peak before it even started, let alone it having time to have any effect.

 

[Philip]

The peak by specimen date was on 28th December, not second week of January. Once you realise that, your narrative of the lockdown working falls apart as the peak before it even started, let alone it having time to have any effect.

Which still correlates well with the start of tougher restrictions since London and the South East were in tier 4 by 23rd December.

 

[Dent]

Which still correlates well with the start of tougher restrictions since London and the South East were in tier 4 by 23rd December.

It certainly doesn't correlate with the current lockdown "working" since it hadn't even started then.

In that case, would you say that the transition from the tiers to the national lockdown was unnecessary, and they should have stuck with the tiers as they at the end of December, with regular reviews and areas moving down the tiers as cases dropped?

 

[6862]

Which still correlates well with the start of tougher restrictions since London and the South East were in tier 4 by 23rd December.

And do you think many people were actually following those rules in the period of 23rd-28th December?

 

[Philip]

It certainly doesn't correlate with the current lockdown "working" since it hadn't even started then.

In that case, would you say that the transition from the tiers to the national lockdown was unnecessary, and they should have stuck with the tiers as they at the end of December, with regular reviews and areas moving down the tiers as cases dropped?

The tier 4 is more or less lockdown anyway, except for schools being open, but the majority of schools haven't been open since around 18th December anyway. A lockdown is a unified approach across the country, which more people are likely to adhere to. I think cases would still be dropping if the tiered status as of the end of December had remained in place, but maybe not as fast as they are now with lockdown.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 19 Jan 2021 ==

And do you think many people were actually following those rules in the period of 23rd-28th December?

Yes, I think the majority were doing.

 

[hwl]

Unfortunately we don't know how many of those people are Clinically Extremely Vulnerable so we have no idea what will happen to admissions

The stats say that the majority aren't, hence the case rates (with time lag) will be a big driver for a while yet.

 

[Dent]

I think cases would still be dropping if the tiered status as of the end of December had remained in place, but maybe not as fast as they are now with lockdown.

Of course cases would still be dropping if the tiers were as they were at the end of December, that is evident from the fact that they were dropping at the end of December. There is no evidence that they would be dropping be dropping more slowly, which is an unsubstantiated and unverifiable claim.

 

[hwl]

And yet with cases falling off a cliff separately from the vaccinations, the 25% cut from the over 70s might well be plenty. We obviously need to get hospitals back on track rather than half-closed and reconfigured for Covid care, but it's not at all clear that that hospital admissions will provide any basis at all for an ongoing lockdown by mid-February.

A 25% reduction from present levels would still be operating at more than pre-covid ICU capacity nationally. I think it is going to take a while to bring ICU admission down significantly by vaccination (much harder than reducing mortality) hence the government needing to use the other main lever and reduce case rates. If they need to carefully control case rates, the lifting of restrictions will be gradual and measured (as the government has indicated in the press conferences several times).

 

[Philip]

Of course cases would still be dropping if the tiers were as they were at the end of December, that is evident from the fact that they were dropping at the end of December. There is no evidence that they would be dropping be dropping more slowly, which is an unsubstantiated and unverifiable claim.

The fact that lockdown emphasises the 'stay at home' message with strict enforcement, whereas tiers 3 and 4 didn't I would say has had quite a big effect. People take notice of this kind of thing and so that is obviously going to have the effect of reducing the mixing of people and thus a reduction in transmission. Also as I say, people are more likely to comply when it is a nationwide and unified approach, rather than different areas of the country having different rules.

 

[HSTEd]

The stats say that the majority aren't, hence the case rates (with time lag) will be a big driver for a while yet.

Have you seen stats for that?
All I've seen is age bracketing, but we are now vaccinating "CEV" people under 70 and I have not seen any data on what fraction of admissions they represent.

 

[Dent]

The fact that lockdown emphasises the 'stay at home' message whereas tiers 3 and 4 didn't I would say has had quite a big effect.

Just because you would say it doesn't make it true. There is no evidence of that in the available data.

 

[Philip]

Just because you would say it doesn't make it true. There is no evidence of that in the available data.

Well you can go on looking for data which you're not going to find, I'm as close to certain as can be that it is by and large the effect of lockdown, with a little help from growing immunity, that is driving down the case numbers.

 

[Dent]

Well you can go on looking for data which you're not going to find, I'm as close to certain as can be that it is by and large the effect of lockdown, with a little help from growing immunity, that is driving down the case numbers.

So you admit that you will not find data to support your conclusion. On what basis are you "as close to certain as can be" of a conclusion which is not supported by any data and is actually contradicted by the date if the peak?

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

It certainly doesn't correlate with the current lockdown "working" since it hadn't even started then.

In that case, would you say that the transition from the tiers to the national lockdown was unnecessary, and they should have stuck with the tiers as they at the end of December, with regular reviews and areas moving down the tiers as cases dropped?

Majority of SE were in tier 2 until 18/12 then moved to tier 3 for 24hrs then tier 4 on 19/12. The national lockdown changed very little from tier 4 and closing schools was imposed as an after measure. Xmas has made following trend data more of an issue but looking at actual day of test not when it was reported which is daily headline data in my area (SE) our peak was 30/12 and its been on a slowly declining trend since which corelates with tier 4.

Looking at the wider picture the current level of hospitalisations has yet to show any moderation but the data is erratic. Last update was Sunday when there was 939 net admissions not the highest since new year but not low. We are weeks away from reaching equilibrium between new cases and discharges and by then there could be 45k hospitalised putting severe strain on those managing them. My view is there will be pressure bought to bare to keep restrictions on even when peak hospitalisations is reached to give the staff some respite and rebuild a buffer.

In terms of tiering some area are already back to Tier 2 levels like the majority of Devon for example but that won't happen because Exeter is an outlier and its now absorbing patients from L&SE reducing its ability to absorb local cases so restrictions are likely to stay on even come February. The mood music from govt is Easter at best and I see CRG are pushing for 8 March this being the 3 weeks after cohorts 1-4 should have received 1st dose which is what Boris/Hancock said was key target but they've since rolled back on this in my view. With opposition still pushing for more restrictions the govt can hold the line for months on parliamentary pressure to push back against this.

 

[Yew]

Fair enough. Put everyone into tier 3 and wait 3 weeks before moving anyone up or down

If there are any restrictions, they must be continuously reviewed and eased as soon as possible. Arbritrary time periods cause undue and unnecessary suffering.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 19 Jan 2021 ==

A 25% reduction from present levels would still be operating at more than pre-covid ICU capacity nationally. I think it is going to take a while to bring ICU admission down significantly by vaccination (much harder than reducing mortality) hence the government needing to use the other main lever and reduce case rates. If they need to carefully control case rates, the lifting of restrictions will be gradual and measured (as the government has indicated in the press conferences several times).

That doesn't matter, what matters if the can cope, not historical capacity. And that's before we consider that you failed to account for reductions in case loads due to restrictions. Our society cannot sacrifice everyones lives to ensure optimal conditions.

 

[yorksrob]

In terms of tiering some area are already back to Tier 2 levels like the majority of Devon for example but that won't happen because Exeter is an outlier and its now absorbing patients from L&SE reducing its ability to absorb local cases so restrictions are likely to stay on even come February. The mood music from govt is Easter at best and I see CRG are pushing for 8 March this being the 3 weeks after cohorts 1-4 should have received 1st dose which is what Boris/Hancock said was key target but they've since rolled back on this in my view. With opposition still pushing for more restrictions the govt can hold the line for months on parliamentary pressure to push back against this.

That's what happens when there is no one holding the Government to account.

 

[bramling]

That's what happens when there is no one holding the Government to account.

I still see a massive problem, unfortunately. Having scared elements of the population witless, managing the younger and middle-aged people is going to prove a problem, as they become surrounded in their unvaccinated state by increasing numbers of vaccinated people, in many cases no doubt keen to resume their normal activities. I cannot see how on earth they can reconcile this, as they can’t suddenly change the record from “this is lethal for everyone” to “now all the elderly are vaccinated, let’s get back to normal and if lots of younger people now catch Covid then so be it”.