New 4-tier system for England

[Ianno87]

I've been told that young people in London routinely give false addresses when they check in somewhere. Could have contributed towards the spike in cases and tier 4 upshot I suppose.

To be fair, it would still spread even if they gave the correct address...

 

[trainophile]

To be fair, it would still spread even if they gave the correct address...

True, but if tracing was effective it might keep the spread down a bit.

 

[DB]

I've been told that young people in London routinely give false addresses when they check in somewhere. Could have contributed towards the spike in cases and tier 4 upshot I suppose.

I verry much doubt if that practice is any more or less prevalent in London than it is anywhere else!

 

[trainophile]

I verry much doubt if that practice is any more or less prevalent in London than it is anywhere else!

I was told it third hand, having originated from someone whose daughter studies in London, so quite possibly so. I think there is possibly a more "going out" culture in London though, particularly among students and the young - although that's just an impression, I'm not holding it up as fact.

 

[Kite159]

I've been told that young people in London routinely give false addresses when they check in somewhere. Could have contributed towards the spike in cases and tier 4 upshot I suppose.

I suspect some people giving out false details when it came to checking into pubs is nationwide issue. I wonder how many times "M Mouse", "D Cummings" or "B Johnson" etc has checked into pubs, especially those who don't have anybody checking the data you are giving them. Or even in some cases giving details of someone else (as a joke)

 

[greyman42]

I was told it third hand, having originated from someone whose daughter studies in London, so quite possibly so. I think there is possibly a more "going out" culture in London though, particularly among students and the young - although that's just an impression, I'm not holding it up as fact.

There is a more "going out" culture in London. Prior to Covid, there was not much difference between a Monday night and a Friday night.

 

[packermac]

I think it clearly doesn't help understanding of any situation to deny the thought processes and decisions that lead to where we've come to. Even if it ammounts to saying "Well, we thought this at the time, but we decided that it was wrong because of x". It rather implys that they're unwilling to discuss "x".



I think that SAGE have certainly demonstrated a lack of thinking proportionately throughout this crisis.

SAGE role is to view things from a scientific ands medical perspective NOT take a view or give advice of any political or economic impact, that is what the elected government do.
You may disagree with the government and not like the science, but there will be varying scientific opinions as on many scientific issues, but this is still a new virus so advice will change, sometimes almost on a daily basis.

 

[Richard Scott]

SAGE role is to view things from a scientific ands medical perspective NOT take a view or give advice of any political or economic impact, that is what the elected government do.
You may disagree with the government and not like the science, but there will be varying scientific opinions as on many scientific issues, but this is still a new virus so advice will change, sometimes almost on a daily basis.

True so why don't the government take more than one opinion on board then?

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

SAGE role is to view things from a scientific ands medical perspective NOT take a view or give advice of any political or economic impact, that is what the elected government do.
You may disagree with the government and not like the science, but there will be varying scientific opinions as on many scientific issues, but this is still a new virus so advice will change, sometimes almost on a daily basis.

Whittys advice has been pretty consistent from the outset and most of his warnings about cases increasing if you relax too much have come to fruition. However, he has always made the point that whilst the virus is the dominant factor in there thinking he has always struck a note of caution about the wider societal impacts of the measures being deployed and thats the for the govt to strike the balance. SAGE aren't dominant as Whitty put a marker down many weeks ago that Tier 3 wouldn't be enough but govt resisted anything anymore severe so they took the political decision not to follow advice then. However, here we are with half the country now in Tier 4 and the rest to follow over the next weeks in all probability so in the end advice has been taken. I do feel now that despite there wish to have a balanced approach for the next few months they've swung firmly behind SAGE advice and thats sensible given respiratory viruses are at there peak in the Northern Hemisphere in Jan/Feb.

 

[Richard Scott]

Whittys advice has been pretty consistent from the outset and most of his warnings about cases increasing if you relax too much have come to fruition. However, he has always made the point that whilst the virus is the dominant factor in there thinking he has always struck a note of caution about the wider societal impacts of the measures being deployed and thats the for the govt to strike the balance. SAGE aren't dominant as Whitty put a marker down many weeks ago that Tier 3 wouldn't be enough but govt resisted anything anymore severe so they took the political decision not to follow advice then. However, here we are with half the country now in Tier 4 and the rest to follow over the next weeks in all probability so in the end advice has been taken. I do feel now that despite there wish to have a balanced approach for the next few months they've swung firmly behind SAGE advice and thats sensible given respiratory viruses are at there peak in the Northern Hemisphere in Jan/Feb.

But how many cases has been way off. The other thing is this isn't a one horse race as many of us have tried to point out many times. People's livelihoods are being ruined as some may end up losing their business altogether and may come combined with more mental health cases (which now seem to be filling up hospitals if a recent item on news about Southmead hospital in Bristol is being replicated across the country). The people who consistently call for these measures seem to be those in secure jobs who are widely unaffected by this. I can be thankful that my job is one of those but I can see the bigger picture, can you?

 

[DB]

Whittys advice has been pretty consistent from the outset and most of his warnings about cases increasing if you relax too much have come to fruition.

Questionable cause and effect there - the cases went down despite decreasing restrictions in the first half od the summer, because it was summer. They have been going up since September because that's what respiratory viruses do in winter. Claiming that with more restrictions they wouldn't have done just isn't a tenable argument, as can be seen by looking around the world at the non-existent relationship between severity of restrictions and number of cases.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

But how many cases has been way off. The other thing is this isn't a one horse race as many of us have tried to point out many times. People's livelihoods are being ruined as some may end up losing their business altogether and may come combined with more mental health cases (which now seem to be filling up hospitals if a recent item on news about Southmead hospital in Bristol is being replicated across the country). The people who consistently call for these measures seem to be those in secure jobs who are widely unaffected by this. I can be thankful that my job is one of those but I can see the bigger picture, can

For sure which is why I attempted to paint the picture of Whitty as someone who does see the big picture and provides advice which govt uses in its approach but then the doomsters, aided and abetted by Labour, push the narrative that advice (guidance or recommendations offered with regard to prudent future action) hasn't been followed resulting in them turning 180 degrees. This time I fear they have dug in for the long term. They also really have NO idea of the mental health issues that are occurring and because they are long burn they wont show up but plenty of MPs are pushing the issue. To address this though would mean a fundamental policy shift to one that accepts that the vulnerable either have to be shielded or sacrificed and thats unlikely to happen.

 

[HSTEd]

True, but if tracing was effective it might keep the spread down a bit.

But tracing simply hasn't been sufficiently effective anywhere in the world, possibly baring police states.

 

[DB]

But tracing simply hasn't been sufficiently effective anywhere in the world, possibly baring police states.

And even then is only possibly effective where a country has closed its borders, and cases within the country remain very low.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

But tracing simply hasn't been sufficiently effective anywhere in the world, possibly baring police states.

Unless you can turn the tests round quickly which they can't tracing is futile. Currently in my area using the data off the govt dashboard they are achieving less than 40% within 24hrs and 100% is taking upto 5 days so whats the point. This relies upon individuals doing the right thing and not everybody works for an employer like a TOC who will accept without question you need to self isolate and will pay you. So until they address that flaw self isolation wont achieve what it should and you would have thought that it must be evident with the level of transmission thats going on that they need to change policy in this area but just isn't in the Tory DNA.

 

[bramling]

But how many cases has been way off. The other thing is this isn't a one horse race as many of us have tried to point out many times. People's livelihoods are being ruined as some may end up losing their business altogether and may come combined with more mental health cases (which now seem to be filling up hospitals if a recent item on news about Southmead hospital in Bristol is being replicated across the country). The people who consistently call for these measures seem to be those in secure jobs who are widely unaffected by this. I can be thankful that my job is one of those but I can see the bigger picture, can you?

I think there’s an element of “put rubbish in, get rubbish out” with the scientists. I bet BJ has never specified to them what he’s actually hoping to achieve, apart perhaps from vague stuff like “we must beat this”.

I feel sorry for Whitty in particular, he knows that Boris’s “follow the science” policy means anything that at the end of this is regarded as being negative will be dumped on to him. To be honest if I were in his position and having to advise such a loose cannon as BJ then I’d probably play pretty cautious too, as the main thing which can be dumped on him is the death toll, the wider economic and health implications are much harder to pin down.

I’m not saying any of this is right, it absolutely isn’t, but I think it’s where we are.

 

[Ianno87]

I notice the electronic Cambridgeshire road signs are back to saying "Essential Travel Only"...

 

[bramling]

I notice the electronic Cambridgeshire road signs are back to saying "Essential Travel Only"...

We went for a drive up to Norfolk on Christmas Day and saw the same - every road sign was either displaying something akin to “essential journeys only”, or “tier 4 rules apply from 26th Dec”.

Whilst absolutely not busy compared to a normal non-Covid Friday, the roads certainly were busier than one might have found on Christmas Day a decade or more ago. No visible police presence that we could see.

I saw a “stay at home protect the NHS” sign in London today too. I suppose that is in line with tier 4. At least there aren’t the rather threatening “obey the rules or move to a higher tier” ones seen over the last couple of months. These always reminded me of scattergun management.

 

[317 forever]

My plan too. I've managed to get shifts on Christmas day and Boxing day, and I have plenty of work to get on with at home too, so I'll just try and have a productive couple of weeks.

Likewise I worked on Christmas Day, admittedly not just to deny as much knowledge as possible that it was Christmas, but so that I could have an extra day off for New Year.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Dec 2020 ==

I was in Leeds at lunch time (stopped off on the way to one of our offices) - busiest I've seen it for months in the city centre, and the trains I travelled on were no less busy than they've been in recent weeks (Northern / TPE). From what I saw of the XC and LNER ones, they were a good bit busier than they have been.

Does very much seem that a good proprortion of people are ignoring the scaremongering now.

I have noticed that it has never been as quiet out as in late March / April, not even during the November lockdown. I expect many people even in tier 4 take advantage of the "unlimited exercise" purpose for going out.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Dec 2020 ==

I expect national Tier 4 (aka lockdown) to be announced on the 27th or 28th. I’m not sure when it will actually take effect or how long it will last yet but from what I’ve heard it will be longer than the second lockdown....

It probably will be longer, though probably not announced until at least Wednesday. In November they had the in the end retracted Christmas relaxations to think about. Now it is likely to get colder until February, making this lockdown inevitable until either it gets warmer or the rollout of the vaccine progresses sufficiently quickly.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Dec 2020 ==

I had a similar experience going to Southport on the train yesterday from Wigan.

When I got to the barriers at Southport, Merseyside Police had two officers stopping everyone off the train and they sent the two people on front of me back on the train.

I challenged the officer and explained it was guidance and not law. He eventually, after me explaining that 'should avoid' doesn't equate to 'must not', said that it might not be law but to think of the moral impact of spreading the virus from tier 3 to 2. I explained that his job was to uphold the law, not morals.

He let me carry on with my day

If I didn't know better, I'd worry that the police had seen our forums and interpretations of how we can find it reasonable to travel during restrictions if not indeed lockdowns.

 

[ChrisC]

We went for a drive up to Norfolk on Christmas Day and saw the same - every road sign was either displaying something akin to “essential journeys only”, or “tier 4 rules apply from 26th Dec”.

Whilst absolutely not busy compared to a normal non-Covid Friday, the roads certainly were busier than one might have found on Christmas Day a decade or more ago. No visible police presence that we could see.

Unusually quiet roads, even for Christmas Day, in Nottinghamshire and even more so in Lincolnshire, which are both Tier 3 areas. I’ve never known the usually very busy A17 between Sleaford and Newark so quiet. It was really strange seeing stretches of that road completely empty. I don’t know if the more urban areas were busier but certainly not the main roads in more rural areas.

Boxing Day here was very dull and a bit drizzly and I didn’t go out of my village in Nottinghamshire so have no idea how busy the roads were. However, there were hoards of people out walking around the village with many large groups of up to a dozen people. The village was also full of parked cars with people parking up to go walking.

 

[Smidster]

I would also not be at all surprised if we have national Tier 4 shortly, likely for a period of 6 weeks, and would actually be in general agreement with it.

The main reason being that the situation is very different to November in that with a vaccine we have a solution that can protect 99% of the vulnerable in a matter of weeks and so think we have a duty to get as many people "across the line" as we can.

January/February are awful months anyway and if that helps to release little pressure on health services to aid the rollout then fine.

Now the minute the vulnerable are protected then would hope and expect things to get better quickly - and those in charge want nothing more than to end restrictions (the thought they love this is mad)

 

[duncanp]

I think that if there is going to be a national lockdown, the announcement of it will coincide with the announcement of the approval of the Oxford Vaccine, along with an idea of the strategy for using the vaccine. (ie Vaccinate the 12 - 15 million people who are most at risk of hospitalisation in 6 - 8 weeks, following which restrictions can be progressively eased)

This will give people some hope that there is a way out of this constant cycle of lockdowns, easing of restrictions, tier system, cases going up again, more lockdowns... etc. etc.

 

[Ianno87]

We went for a drive up to Norfolk on Christmas Day and saw the same - every road sign was either displaying something akin to “essential journeys only”, or “tier 4 rules apply from 26th Dec”.

Whilst absolutely not busy compared to a normal non-Covid Friday, the roads certainly were busier than one might have found on Christmas Day a decade or more ago. No visible police presence that we could see.

I saw a “stay at home protect the NHS” sign in London today too. I suppose that is in line with tier 4. At least there aren’t the rather threatening “obey the rules or move to a higher tier” ones seen over the last couple of months. These always reminded me of scattergun management.

Christmas Day mid-morning/lunchtime was relatively busy traffic-wise in Cambridge. Later on in evening was deadly quiet.

 

[Hadders]

I notice the electronic Cambridgeshire road signs are back to saying "Essential Travel Only"...

The Hertfordshire signs have said this since we moved into Tier 4. Same as during the November lock down. Plenty of traffic on the roads though.

 

[bramling]

The Hertfordshire signs have said this since we moved into Tier 4. Same as during the November lock down. Plenty of traffic on the roads though.

Come to think of it I’m not sure the London ones have ever stopped saying it. Certainly at least one on the A1 in the suburbs.

 

[317 forever]

I would also not be at all surprised if we have national Tier 4 shortly, likely for a period of 6 weeks, and would actually be in general agreement with it.

The main reason being that the situation is very different to November in that with a vaccine we have a solution that can protect 99% of the vulnerable in a matter of weeks and so think we have a duty to get as many people "across the line" as we can.

January/February are awful months anyway and if that helps to release little pressure on health services to aid the rollout then fine.

Now the minute the vulnerable are protected then would hope and expect things to get better quickly - and those in charge want nothing more than to end restrictions (the thought they love this is mad)

It was hard to take the mockdown lockdown in November entirely seriously. It was obviously timed so that Christmas relaxations could be over-prioritised. Then these were retracted anyway.

At least now it is colder, making the spread rifer, as we are seeing in the stats and the new mutant.

In all conscience I knew it would be silly to visit London's West End this month for these reasons and the shops being busy. This is why I went to London in November instead.

Come to think of it I’m not sure the London ones have ever stopped saying it. Certainly at least one on the A1 in the suburbs.

When on my way home from Euston in November, I spotted in one of the scrolling poster boards a Stay at Home poster. Leaving aside the fact that unlimited exercise was permitted and travel merely advised against, no staff or police minded anyone being there from what I could see.

 

[mawallace]

I think that if there is going to be a national lockdown, the announcement of it will coincide with the announcement of the approval of the Oxford Vaccine, along with an idea of the strategy for using the vaccine. (ie Vaccinate the 12 - 15 million people who are most at risk of hospitalisation in 6 - 8 weeks, following which restrictions can be progressively eased)

This will give people some hope that there is a way out of this constant cycle of lockdowns, easing of restrictions, tier system, cases going up again, more lockdowns... etc. etc.

Umm - call me a skeptical but I have a feeling the Oxford will be approved this week - agree just in time for a 'lockdown' to get people vaccinated.

 

[Pete_uk]

I'm sure COVID19 has been having a wail of a time this past week! So I would expect a national level 4 lockdown (whatever that may mean) in January as cases start to sky rocket.

 

[Mojo]

lt sounds it to me also! The BBC have spent the last two days drumming up ambulance service problems.

 

[Envy123]

OK, I hope Tier 5 does not happen with even further restrictions. I accepted that I may not be able to swim until Easter at the earliest, but having no takeaways would really really suck. I don't like ready meals and don't always have time to cook.