New 4-tier system for England

[DB]

Oh spare me the histrionics from the mighty 1922 Committee, 1922 was probably when they last had a backbone.

Well, at least they are saying something, unlike the supine non-opposition party!

 

[The Ham]

Not being funny, but has any PM had to deal with something like this before?

To be honest, Boris has made so many major mistakes, I don't like him much now.

Saying that, would Labour have been any better? Probably not.

My biggest issue relating to Boris with Covid is that it has all been a case of too little too late, all decisions are last minute or seriously flawed hence we find ourselves 10x worse off than we were in March.

Last night's announcement really backfired! With those scenes of pre-covid like passenger numbers in the major stations and really busy roads, I couldn't believe what I saw.

All I can say is that 2021 will probably be the worst year for most of us so far. I can't see us making any real progress until at least 2022, as all we've had so far has been going backwards with higher case numbers rather than going forwards and lowering case numbers.

I also think it will be a very long time before mass vaccination will actually help as we are only at around 350,000 people. That is nothing when you have a population of 68 million. Even if 35 million had it at this point, thats is only just over 50% of the population so it's going to be a long time before millions have had it, that's assuming anybody wants to. I'm personally not sure I'd want something that has been rushed out.

The reason that it's for through the trails faster than would normal be the case isn't down to cutting off corners, rather it's down to resources.

Normally there's a lag between each step as there's a need to apply for grants, receive the grant, get the trail subjects, start the trail. Governments have been giving lots of money for grants and there's lots of people willing to be on a trail and they all have a fairly good chance of being somewhere where they could pick it up.

As such the process has been compressed, but only at the expense of the waiting around stages which serve no purpose other than linking between the stages.

The Oxford vaccine had been being developed for a future virus for some time and so the design of the vaccine (sequencing the right bit of virus DNA) took all of 48 hours and was done before we even went into the first lockdown.

 

[yorkie]

Can we try to stick to the 4-tier system in this thread please.

To discuss anything else, please use an existing thread (if there is one) or create a new thread (if there isnt).

Thanks

 

[221101 Voyager]

How long can we expect tier 4 to last for?

 

[DB]

The reason that it's for through the trails faster than would normal be the case isn't down to cutting off corners, rather it's down to resources.

Normally there's a lag between each step as there's a need to apply for grants, receive the grant, get the trail subjects, start the trail. Governments have been giving lots of money for grants and there's lots of people willing to be on a trail and they all have a fairly good chance of being somewhere where they could pick it up.

As such the process has been compressed, but only at the expense of the waiting around stages which serve no purpose other than linking between the stages.

The Oxford vaccine had been being developed for a future virus for some time and so the design of the vaccine (sequencing the right bit of virus DNA) took all of 48 hours and was done before we even went into the first lockdown.

Yes, but that ignores any potential long-term effects, and there is no way of shortening the process there - if there are any, they may not be known about yet.

Of course, it may well all be fine - but given the shortened timescale and the political pressure it's easy to see why some people might be wary.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

How long can we expect tier 4 to last for?

Hancock suggested on at least 2 interviews this morning that it may be required until there has been mass vaccination.

 

[NorthOxonian]

How long can we expect tier 4 to last for?

It's impossible to say - how long is a piece of string? If the vaccine rollout becomes much faster and starts to have a big impact on the figures or something unforeseen happens, we could be looking at a few weeks. If not, I fear it'll be months.

My gut feeling is pessimistic, I think it'll last until all vulnerable people have been vaccinated and maybe even longer (since the media narrative will shift to focussing on the risk of long Covid at that point). My birthday is in April and personally, I expect that even then most areas will be in Tier 4 (probably only areas geographically far from London have a chance of escaping). I hope I'm wrong, of course, but it's difficult to see anything changing any time soon.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Already we seem to have a widespread acceptance that this strain is more infectious - which may be the case, but whether it is or not is it really so surprising that respiratory infections might spike in the middle of December?

And there seems to be an assumption which it will just continue to increase, when actually it might level off of its own accord.

And if it has been around since September and is so infectious, why isn't the whole country seeing the same?

Its working its way West and North as i write this insidiously seeping through society although it will slowed up by Tier 4 (yes a few people rushed out of London at St Pancras and media dress up as an exodus wont really accelerate it) its what viruses do ne Spanish Flu restrictions just slow it down.

Actually in Kent cases increases are slowing down and Essex / E.London are the primary drivers of rapid increase in numbers so I do agree there will be a natural slowdown as in the end it will run out of hosts.

 

[SuspectUsual]

How long can we expect tier 4 to last for?

According to my son, Hancock was quoted this morning saying words to the effect of tier 4 is here until vaccination is rolled out. So several months then

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Hancock suggested on at least 2 interviews this morning that it may be required until there has been mass vaccination.

Having been caught napping over having to make the latest change to restrictions he's decided to go large and at least plan for the worst now and hope for the best unlike there previous approach of hope it will come good

 

[221101 Voyager]

It's impossible to say - how long is a piece of string? If the vaccine rollout becomes much faster and starts to have a big impact on the figures or something unforeseen happens, we could be looking at a few weeks. If not, I fear it'll be months.

My gut feeling is pessimistic, I think it'll last until all vulnerable people have been vaccinated and maybe even longer (since the media narrative will shift to focussing on the risk of long Covid at that point). My birthday is in April and personally, I expect that even then most areas will be in Tier 4 (probably only areas geographically far from London have a chance of escaping). I hope I'm wrong, of course, but it's difficult to see anything changing any time soon.

According to my son, Hancock was quoted this morning saying words to the effect of tier 4 is here until vaccination is rolled out. So several months then

I did recall seeing on the news, that someone let slip we might be in tier 4 until March. I'll have to see if I can rewatch it for a clarification on the wording though to be 100% sure.

Either way though I think it'll be several months until we see progress of any sort annoyingly.

 

[PeterY]

I've tried to think positive during COVID, but it's becoming more challenging everyday and I'm sure most people feel the same.

I've tried to think positive though out this pandemic but I'm struggling now. I don't take isolation from other people very well. It's going to be a very long holiday on my own. I'm happy to live alone but also enjoy the company of others. I feel that's what has been taken away.
I've done a lot of ZOOM meetings (12 step program) but I'm really missing the interaction of seeing real people.

I feel the lonely ness of most of the population will be hard to overcome.

 

[Trackman]

Hancock suggested on at least 2 interviews this morning that it may be required until there has been mass vaccination.

That has cheered me up no end.
It's all like a bad dream.

 

[221101 Voyager]

I've tried to think positive though out this pandemic but I'm struggling now. I don't take isolation from other people very well. It's going to be a very long holiday on my own. I'm happy to live alone but also enjoy the company of others. I feel that's what has been taken away.
I've done a lot of ZOOM meetings (12 step program) but I'm really missing the interaction of seeing real people.

I feel the loneliness of most of the population will be hard to overcome.

Same for me on your first point.

I'm also really missing interacting in person too. I don't like virtual meetings at all.

On your final point I agree too.

Let's just hope things get better eh? If you ask me, the only way is up isn't it?

 

[DB]

Same for me on your first point.

I'm also really missing interacting in person too. I don't like virtual meetings at all.

On your final point I agree too.

Let's just hope things get better eh? If you ask me, the only way is up isn't it?

I'm in a similar position - generally rather a loner, but not to this extent!

Wonder if any of those mandating all these restrictions lives alone?

 

[yorksrob]

I heard a few weeks mentioned in the news as well. Perhaps the Government are backtracking.

 

[Kite159]

I heard a few weeks mentioned in the news as well. Perhaps the Government are backtracking.

They probably know that people will get to a point of completely ignoring any restrictions as they have simply had enough

 

[brad465]

The current reporting is suggesting that the increase in R could be between 0.4 and 0.9: if the infection rate increased the value towards the top of that range, it's possible that nothing will stop it spreading out of control, other than a lockdown by the very definition of the word (good luck making that work), or it spreading so fast it burns out through increased immunity, which isn't beyond the bounds if existing immunity applies.

 

[johntea]

Same for me on your first point.

I'm also really missing interacting in person too. I don't like virtual meetings at all.

On your final point I agree too.

Let's just hope things get better eh? If you ask me, the only way is up isn't it?

I was in the office for my last day on Friday and it was fantastic, we had a secret santa, then after work a meal and a few drinks, now I've got 2 weeks off to erm...do what I've done most of the year and spend at home just without the work aspect!

I feel fortunate in that I work for the NHS so there has been no financial impact to me, in fact I was even stunned by the prospect of a pay rise from next year! But it is certainly eye opening when the bank balance is in the green yet I've pretty much bought everything I would want at the moment so at the moment it is just a number on a screen, I can't go on a nice holiday, enjoy shopping or travelling without a nappy on my face, simple things in life we all took for granted before 2020

In some ways I'm almost tempted to cancel my 2 weeks off but I would just be working...from home!

 

[Controller1701]

Well as people want to have a date for the easing of restrictions I suggest the following announcement to satisfy the wish for an end date.

Our great leader The Right Hon B Johnson ranking second only to the almighty JC (In this case the great almighty Jesus Christ our lord and saviour whose birthday everyone wants to celebrate by spending the day with their families in a day of prayer and religious celebration. Remember this is what Christmas is all about. We should all be leaving all those gifts we buy, at the church in praise and celebration of his arrival in this world 2020 years ago. So remember to make sure all those toys you are buying for your children are taken by those same children to your local house of worship and praise to be given to the birthday celebrant) should announce the lowering of restrictions on December 31st 2099. Until that date (Now set in stone) the current system will remain in force.

I trust that those demanding a date when the restrictions are started to be relaxed is set would accept and be happy with such an announcement

 

[UP13]

I'm a primary school teacher in London.

Until two days ago, I was mixing with children from 30 different family bubbles in my classroom. This was fine because Covid isn't that dangerous. Now I'm told I can't see my own family for Christmas as Covid is so dangerous. However I can go back to mingling with 30 children in two weeks time because Covid isn't that dangerous...

I'm happy to take the risk being in class with my pupils and I don't want to go back to remote learning. However it is a kick in the teeth that I can't see my own family. Being honest I've been struggling with work related stress and the start of depression (not Covid related) and Christmas was the one thing keeping me going.

I'm not going to go in the rights and wrongs of strategies against Covid (although I think Covid is more serious than many on here give it credit for) however the government seem to consistently do things that are worst of both worlds - not combating the virus effectively and tanking the economy in the process (which I think will take a century to pay off).

The second lockdown was meant to save Christmas and yet it hasn't. All the economic cost but none of the benefit.

 

[55002]

I'm a primary school teacher in London.

Until two days ago, I was mixing with children from 30 different family bubbles in my classroom. This was fine because Covid isn't that dangerous. Now I'm told I can't see my own family for Christmas as Covid is so dangerous. However I can go back to mingling with 30 children in two weeks time because Covid isn't that dangerous...

I'm happy to take the risk being in class with my pupils and I don't want to go back to remote learning. However it is a kick in the teeth that I can't see my own family. Being honest I've been struggling with work related stress and the start of depression (not Covid related) and Christmas was the one thing keeping me going.

I'm not going to go in the rights and wrongs of strategies against Covid (although I think Covid is more serious than many on here give it credit for) however the government seem to consistently do things that are worst of both worlds - not combating the virus effectively and tanking the economy in the process (which I think will take a century to pay off).

The second lockdown was meant to save Christmas and yet it hasn't. All the economic cost but none of the benefit.

You can also go to church in tier 4, as covid is not dangerous in there

 

[AntoniC]

I`m a civil servant and have been working from home (performing my full range of duties) since March 18th, with a projected date of return to the office of May 2021 - how this latest news will affect me I dont know.
I give full credit to my employer , because there has been no pressure for me to return to the office, as I can do my full range of duties.
I am missing seeing my colleagues (even the annoying ones) and others have said there is only so much you can get from MS Teams meetings , I really do want to see my colleagues in the flesh !.
I appreciate that I am lucky as I am still on full pay, in fact I have more money to spend as I am not paying £115/month for my season ticket.
As I live in a Tier 3 area my dad comes round once a week to see me, and if the weathers nice at the weekend, me my dad and stepmum go for a socially distanced walk together.
As for Christmas, the plan was for 3 bubbles to meet (Me/Dad & Stepmum/Stepmum`s brother & sister) to meet Christmas Day & Boxing Day, that`s all changed now its Christmas Day only - I will cope but my thoughts go out to those who can`t cope.

 

[DelayRepay]

I'm in much the same boat as the last few posters. Financially I'm slightly better off due to not commuting, and less leisure related spend. My job is secure. I have been working at home since March, and will be until at least May. Human interaction with others is limited to Teams and Zoom meetings.

I live on my own. My close family live in another part of the country. I've seen them five times this year, and since September it's been impossible as they were placed in Tier 3 and now I'm in Tier 4. We would have been able to meet as a Christmas bubble but that is now not possible. My best friend lives in the same part of the country and I have not seen him since September either. It was very difficult trying to support him through redundancy remotely. We might be blokes but there were times I just wanted to give him a hug.

I am really struggling to be honest. Looking forward to Christmas is what's kept me going through the last few lonely, dark, miserable months. We had already cut down numbers (just me + my mum/sister/sister's kids who are already in a support bubble). I had been isolating at home to avoid taking any infections into the house. Mum spent the last fortnight agonising about what size turkey to buy! At the last minute it's cancelled and I have no idea when I will next see my family.

Yesterday I took my Christmas decorations down, threw the few cards I've received in the bin, and sat and cried. I've arranged a courier to take the presents I'd already bought up to mums, I hope they get there in time. I am dreading work later because everyone will be talking about Christmas and have fake Christmas backgrounds on Zoom. As far as I am concerned this is just a normal week now.

I have a week off work from Thursday with no idea what I will do. I cannot cancel it otherwise I will lose the leave as I am already at the limit of what can be carried forward to the next year.

Well meaning people make comments like 'Christmas isn't cancelled, it will just be a little different' and 'Why don't you meet on Zoom and have a virtual Christmas dinner' are just making things worse.

Sorry for the mini rant but I needed to get that off my chest and it's better to do it here I think!

 

[Mintona]

I can’t see it ending anytime soon. Now there is a new strain of the virus, which may well be resistant to the vaccine, we will just stay locked down forever more.

 

[6862]

As far as I am concerned this is just a normal week now.

My plan too. I've managed to get shifts on Christmas day and Boxing day, and I have plenty of work to get on with at home too, so I'll just try and have a productive couple of weeks.

 

[The Ham]

You can also go to church in tier 4, as covid is not dangerous in there

If you can find a church meeting in person, the rules about what you can do are restrictive and so many churches are online only.

I'm in much the same boat as the last few posters. Financially I'm slightly better off due to not commuting, and less leisure related spend. My job is secure. I have been working at home since March, and will be until at least May. Human interaction with others is limited to Teams and Zoom meetings.

I live on my own. My close family live in another part of the country. I've seen them five times this year, and since September it's been impossible as they were placed in Tier 3 and now I'm in Tier 4. We would have been able to meet as a Christmas bubble but that is now not possible. My best friend lives in the same part of the country and I have not seen him since September either. It was very difficult trying to support him through redundancy remotely. We might be blokes but there were times I just wanted to give him a hug.

I am really struggling to be honest. Looking forward to Christmas is what's kept me going through the last few lonely, dark, miserable months. We had already cut down numbers (just me + my mum/sister/sister's kids who are already in a support bubble). I had been isolating at home to avoid taking any infections into the house. Mum spent the last fortnight agonising about what size turkey to buy! At the last minute it's cancelled and I have no idea when I will next see my family.

Yesterday I took my Christmas decorations down, threw the few cards I've received in the bin, and sat and cried. I've arranged a courier to take the presents I'd already bought up to mums, I hope they get there in time. I am dreading work later because everyone will be talking about Christmas and have fake Christmas backgrounds on Zoom. As far as I am concerned this is just a normal week now.

I have a week off work from Thursday with no idea what I will do. I cannot cancel it otherwise I will lose the leave as I am already at the limit of what can be carried forward to the next year.

Well meaning people make comments like 'Christmas isn't cancelled, it will just be a little different' and 'Why don't you meet on Zoom and have a virtual Christmas dinner' are just making things worse.

Sorry for the mini rant but I needed to get that off my chest and it's better to do it here I think!

Whilst you may feel like you're the only person finding it hard most of us are on our own way.

Personally I'd rather you came on here and ranted and shouted at us about how bad things are than did something with consequences.

I'm someone who likes my own company or if being with people doing so in small groups, however even so lockdown has been hard. In grateful that my boss has encouraged us to work on the office (tier 2, there's only 6 of us) which has ment that I'm not in the house so the time. Even during lockdown 2 when I was working from home again I was taking my kids to school and so had a reason to get out of the house.

I can't image how is react given what you've been doing, but I suspect a rant on a Web forum is probably the least that I'd be doing!

This may sound crazy (and maybe get you a few get away from me you crazy person looks) but I've found out useful to go for a walk in the park or any other greenspace nearby and just say hello to those you pass. It's not a lot but those social interaction can just lift your mood a little and make the day just a little better, as can seeing nature.

Hope you (and any others who are feeling the same too) feel better about life soon and find some ways to help you to do so.

 

[Smidster]

On the timelines question I think there is reason to be somewhat optimistic that in the speed with which the vaccine could produce results.

If we say that after 10 million people you have hit quite a lot of the priority groups (that would likely get you to the 65+ age group at least) then because of the features of the virus most of the risk of putting pressure on the NHS goes away - about 90% of deaths are in the over 65 group.

You might want to keep some of the less invasive preventative measures in place a little longer (e..g masks in enclosed spaces) but at that point I would hope you go to a much more guidance based system as the most vulnerable will have been protected.

Doesn't mean it will be instant but perhaps March instead of May.

 

[DelW]

I'm in much the same boat as the last few posters. Financially I'm slightly better off due to not commuting, and less leisure related spend. My job is secure. I have been working at home since March, and will be until at least May. Human interaction with others is limited to Teams and Zoom meetings.

I live on my own. My close family live in another part of the country. I've seen them five times this year, and since September it's been impossible as they were placed in Tier 3 and now I'm in Tier 4. We would have been able to meet as a Christmas bubble but that is now not possible. My best friend lives in the same part of the country and I have not seen him since September either. It was very difficult trying to support him through redundancy remotely. We might be blokes but there were times I just wanted to give him a hug.

I am really struggling to be honest. Looking forward to Christmas is what's kept me going through the last few lonely, dark, miserable months. We had already cut down numbers (just me + my mum/sister/sister's kids who are already in a support bubble). I had been isolating at home to avoid taking any infections into the house. Mum spent the last fortnight agonising about what size turkey to buy! At the last minute it's cancelled and I have no idea when I will next see my family.

Yesterday I took my Christmas decorations down, threw the few cards I've received in the bin, and sat and cried. I've arranged a courier to take the presents I'd already bought up to mums, I hope they get there in time. I am dreading work later because everyone will be talking about Christmas and have fake Christmas backgrounds on Zoom. As far as I am concerned this is just a normal week now.

I have a week off work from Thursday with no idea what I will do. I cannot cancel it otherwise I will lose the leave as I am already at the limit of what can be carried forward to the next year.

Well meaning people make comments like 'Christmas isn't cancelled, it will just be a little different' and 'Why don't you meet on Zoom and have a virtual Christmas dinner' are just making things worse.

Sorry for the mini rant but I needed to get that off my chest and it's better to do it here I think!

I do sympathise, and I hope it's helped to be able to put your feelings into print like that. I live on my own as well, and being retired I don't have work as a distraction, so I've needed to find ways to keep occupied while so many normal activities aren't available.

I'd agree with The Ham's suggestion to get out for a walk if possible. I started daily walks in lockdown 1 and they really made a difference. Now it's darker and colder it's not so easy, but I think it's important to get out of the house for a while each day unless the weather is really unpleasant. The forecast for later this week is for some sunshine, and half an hour of sun on your face can really improve how you feel.

My other suggestion is to have small, achievable things to look forward to. Maybe cook (or order in) a special meal once a week, or set a time aside to watch a favourite film. We all need something to look forward to and get us out of bed in the morning.

The spring will come, the sun will shine again, and the virus will recede, even if that seems a way off now. Keep the faith that it will happen!

 

[DustyBin]

On the timelines question I think there is reason to be somewhat optimistic that in the speed with which the vaccine could produce results.

If we say that after 10 million people you have hit quite a lot of the priority groups (that would likely get you to the 65+ age group at least) then because of the features of the virus most of the risk of putting pressure on the NHS goes away - about 90% of deaths are in the over 65 group.

You might want to keep some of the less invasive preventative measures in place a little longer (e..g masks in enclosed spaces) but at that point I would hope you go to a much more guidance based system as the most vulnerable will have been protected.

Doesn't mean it will be instant but perhaps March instead of May.

I admire your optimism but when the government themselves are talking about April, and then start dropping summer into the conversation, I can see us being several months away from any proper relaxation of restrictions. I honestly think it depends on what they WANT to happen. They may rather enjoy the level of control they now have over the population, and with enough people believing their every word they could easily find reasons to keep this going for as long as they like. Far fetched? Perhaps, but we shouldn’t ignore their actions up to this point; the warning signs are there.