New 4-tier system for England

[Darandio]

So based on insufficient data and with only moderate confidence they make further decisions that ruin lives and livelihoods. There needs to be a hell of an inquiry once all this is over and heads need to roll.

 

[Ianno87]

So based on insufficient data and with only moderate confidence they make further decisions that ruin lives and livelihoods. There needs to be a hell of an inquiry once all this is over and heads need to roll.

I'd determine in this context that "moderate" means "of reasonable likelihood of a relationship".

 

[221129]

I wrote this earlier also, you may have missed it...

I feel it is likely to be you that has missed the point. I suspect the OP there was referring to the Spanish influenza pandemic whilst also leading a world war.

 

[hwl]

So based on insufficient data and with only moderate confidence they make further decisions that ruin lives and livelihoods. There needs to be a hell of an inquiry once all this is over and heads need to roll.

Four analytic approaches were reviewed regarding the transmissibility of VUI-202012/01
o Growth rate from genomic data: which suggest a growth rate of VUI-202012/01 that that is 71% (95%CI: 67%-75%) higher than other variants.
o Studies of correlation between R-values and detection of the variant: which suggest an absolute increase in the R-value of between 0.39 to 0.93.

o PCR ct values: which suggest a decrease of ct value of around 2 associated with the new variant.
o Viral load inferred from number of unique genome reads: which suggests 0.5 increase in median log10 inferred viral load in Y501 versus N501.

They have looked at about 1,000 cases. Note the confidence interval "A growth rate of VUI-202012/01 that that is 71% (95%CI: 67%-75%) higher than other variants"
That is pretty good certainty for higher transmission...

Higher confidence would come from analysis of ~5k+ cases.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

I'd determine in this context that "moderate" means "of reasonable likelihood of a relationship".

I have moderate confidence in the Johnson/Arcuri theory


I’ll get my coat...

 

[43096]

Understand some basic statistical rigour before posting, please.

"Confidence" in statistical terms means the strength of correlation between two sets of data, in other words the level of certainty as to whether the correlation is strong enough to conclude whether there is a firm link or not.

Less patronising, please.

"Moderate" does not exactly suggest that there is much certainty.

 

[hwl]

I feel it is likely to be you that has missed the point. I suspect the OP there was referring to the Spanish influenza pandemic whilst also leading a world war.

They had the second wave under control in December 1918 then relaxed for Christmas and the third wave came in early Jan 1919. Boris may just have looked at a history book.

 

[Ianno87]

Less patronising, please.

"Moderate" does not exactly suggest that there is much certainty.

Please enlighten me into what level of statistics you have done, beyond once making a pie chart in Excel.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

Is Neil Ferguson associated with NERVTAG per chance?

 

[43096]

Please enlighten me into what level of statistics you have done, beyond once making a pie chart in Excel.

I'm not even going to bother to reply to that.

Learn some manners.

 

[Ianno87]

I'm not even going to bother to reply to that.

Learn some manners.

Learn some statistics then

 

[43096]

Learn some statistics then

1. How do you know I haven't?
2. Perhaps you can enlighten us all as to what your expertise is in this. You're quite happy to throw out accusations but have presented zero evidence of your own credentials.

 

[farleigh]

Please enlighten me into what level of statistics you have done, beyond once making a pie chart in Excel.

Could you give me an accurate mathematical definition of 'moderate' please.

 

[DB]

They had the second wave under control in December 1918 then relaxed for Christmas and the third wave came in early Jan 1919. Boris may just have looked at a history book.

But they didn't really 'have it under control', did they? It was just natural fluctuation.

We need to stop pretending that anyone can 'control' an infectious respiratory disease. One it's got beyond the point of containing and eradicating it, the most which can be done is likely to be slowing down the spread a bit - by using measures which may cause more problems than they solve.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Is Neil Ferguson associated with NERVTAG per chance?

Yes

 

[adc82140]

The very same Neil Ferguson that said back in April he thought it was OK to visit his lover because he'd already had Covid? He's the case precedent we're using for our Christmas plans. The whole lot of us across three households tested positive in November, so as far as I'm concerned I pose no danger to any one of the planned group. If this lot can make up their own rules, so can I.

 

[yorkie]

Ferguson is involved? In that case extra caution is required; his track record is abysmal.

And let's not forget Ferguson is one of those rotten authoritarians who is very keen for others to be restricted, while he does what he pleases.

 

[43096]

Ferguson is involved? In that case extra caution is required; his track record is abysmal.

And let's not forget Ferguson is one of those rotten authoritarians who is very keen for others to be restricted, while he does what he pleases.

The same Neil Ferguson who "resigned" from SAGE after his disgraceful conduct, but is still listed as being a member in the latest membership listing.

 

[3141]

Plus of course it is related to testing capacity - the more who are tested, the more who are found.

True, and certainly 35,000 new cases sounds a lot more worrying than 10,000 would, and the actual number is likely to be higher still, because not everyone who's infected gets tested. But the thing will spread from the number who have got it, whether or not we know what that number is. Mass testing shows whether the number of cases is increasing or falling, and provides a basis for deciding what action should be taken. (I'm avoiding commenting on what that action should be as you and I have differing views about that.)

 

[brad465]

Seeing reports circulating of not only anger and disgust from the 1922 Committee at the latest revelations, but that vice-chair Sir Charles Walker is suggesting Hancock resigns if Johnson himself doesn't.

 

[Baxenden Bank]

Please enlighten me into what level of statistics you have done, beyond once making a pie chart in Excel.

4,000 deaths per day (or was it just hospitalisations) was produced by the world class experts, perhaps confidence in a pie chart by a non scientist is not much misplaced.

 

[Darandio]

Seeing reports circulating of not only anger and disgust from the 1922 Committee at the latest revelations, but that vice-chair Sir Charles Walker is suggesting Hancock resigns if Johnson himself doesn't.

Indeed, the accusation is that they already knew the tier 4 system was being brought in but purposely left it until the MP's had left and therefore could bypass what had been voted into law. It's pretty damn obvious to me that was the case.

 

[bramling]

Indeed, the accusation is that they already knew the tier 4 system was being brought in but purposely left it until the MP's had left and therefore could bypass what had been voted into law. It's pretty damn obvious to me that was the case.

Could be interesting if this one gains traction. Any Brexit deal perceived to be a “sell-out” could pour petrol on any fire.

 

[birchesgreen]

Oh spare me the histrionics from the mighty 1922 Committee, 1922 was probably when they last had a backbone.

 

[221101 Voyager]

I feel it is likely to be you that has missed the point. I suspect the OP there was referring to the Spanish influenza pandemic whilst also leading a world war.

Oh well in that case, I apologise, nobodys perfect and not everyone is a historian to know about all the ins and outs of WWI!

If that was what @peters was trying to get at he should have said that.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Case levels today should leave no one in any doubt how prevalent this is in areas where this strain has spread to

London 11577 110% up over one week nearly 300% over two weeks. 2909 hospitalised up 23% over week
South East 7120 90% up over week 220% over two weeks. 2321 hospitalised up 10% over week
East England 4646 80% up over week 1943 220% over two weeks. hospitalised up 27% over week

Hospitalisations lag cases about two weeks so 600 patients extra in london over last week could be 1800 extra patients by this time next week and todays admission rate underpins that rate of increase so even in London with its spare capacity will soon be overwhelmed.

Thing is this has been evident in Kent for the last four weeks and the trend was showing in lockdown being an area where lockdown 2.0 gave no suppression. So something different was going on down there and I get they may not have fully understood that it was a new strain until recently but the data was consistently going in the wrong direction so why didn't they take preemptive action. But they didn't even as cases started increasing in W.Kent starting as it spread across from N.Kent as we came into December and then into South Essex and SE London as December wore on.

I can only conclude that there was political interference not to be seen to suppressing Xmas but like March and October they leave it too late now and i can see cases spiraling to recent French levels before they fall again and a further significant economic impact.

 

[birchesgreen]

On Wednesday Johnson accused Starmer of wanting to cancel christmas, amazing how well that has aged eh?

Hancock gave a briefing about this new strain on Monday btw, and they knew about it weeks before.

 

[221101 Voyager]

On Wednesday Johnson accused Starmer of wanting to cancel christmas, amazing how well that has aged eh?

Hancock gave a briefing about this new strain on Monday btw, and they knew about it weeks before.

Indeed, how things change eh?

I think that Smarmy Starmer and Buffoon Boris are both equally useless. I think we are doomed.

I've tried to think positive during COVID, but it's becoming more challenging everyday and I'm sure most people feel the same.

Let's see what 2021 holds shall we?

 

[DB]

Case levels today should leave no one in any doubt how prevalent this is in areas where this strain has spread to

London 11577 110% up over one week nearly 300% over two weeks. 2909 hospitalised up 23% over week
South East 7120 90% up over week 220% over two weeks. 2321 hospitalised up 10% over week
East England 4646 80% up over week 1943 220% over two weeks. hospitalised up 27% over week

Hospitalisations lag cases about two weeks so 600 patients extra in london over last week could be 1800 extra patients by this time next week and todays admission rate underpins that rate of increase so even in London with its spare capacity will soon be overwhelmed.

Thing is this has been evident in Kent for the last four weeks and the trend was showing in lockdown being an area where lockdown 2.0 gave no suppression. So something different was going on down there and I get they may not have fully understood that it was a new strain until recently but the data was consistently going in the wrong direction so why didn't they take preemptive action. But they didn't even as cases started increasing in W.Kent starting as it spread across from N.Kent as we came into December and then into South Essex and SE London as December wore on.

I can only conclude that there was political interference not to be seen to suppressing Xmas but like March and October they leave it too late now and i can see cases spiraling to recent French levels before they fall again and a further significant economic impact.

Already we seem to have a widespread acceptance that this strain is more infectious - which may be the case, but whether it is or not is it really so surprising that respiratory infections might spike in the middle of December?

And there seems to be an assumption which it will just continue to increase, when actually it might level off of its own accord.

And if it has been around since September and is so infectious, why isn't the whole country seeing the same?

 

[peters]

Oh well in that case, I apologise, nobodys perfect and not everyone is a historian to know about all the ins and outs of WWI!

If that was what @peters was trying to get at he should have said that.

With there being so many new posts I can't see your original response but I don't know how I am supposed to write things any more clearer.

I named the PM I was referring to, named the pandemic I was referring to and used an abbreviation for World War I, which I was taught in primary school. I also made it extremely clear that I was referring to that PM dealing with a pandemic and world war simultaneously. I presumed everyone knows Britain was involved in WWI and that I didn't need to specifically say that! So the only thing that could have been unclear is if you weren't familiar with the WWI abbreviation, which Google can help you with.

I'm not a historian, I dropped history at the end of third year of secondary school as I found learning history from a textbook boring, I only learnt about the Spanish flu pandemic this year.