New 4-tier system for England

[6862]

What is damaging for business and people's mental health is this constant uncertainty.

To be honest, I think the government just don't care about avoiding uncertainty any more. They're just arranging the deckchairs on the Titanic, and there's nothing else they can do. Their actions have decimated the economy and ruined lives, and even if they suddenly started to communicate effectively it's much too late to make any difference.

 

[yorksrob]

I agree with the sentiments around Tier 3, and the issue is the endless nature of it - in that the only thing that will change the course is case rates changing, and no consideration is given to the limits of people’s tolerance for these sorts of restrictions.

Humans are social animals and lockdown tolerance is limited - most people can’t do lockdown indefinitely, banning things and shouting “don’t meet up” doesn’t change that, it just shifts people to less safe contexts.

It’s the same principle as why abstinence-only sex education is ineffective. It’s odd that people who understand risk reduction in other contexts don’t seem to get it in this one, and instead maintain the fantasy that humans behave like robots in following their rules to the letter.

Yes, considering these are supposedly officials with some grounding in public health pushing this agenda, it is peculiar that the parallels with sexual health issues seem to be lost on them.

During the AIDS epidemic, the emphasis wasn't on trying to stop people bonking, it was on trying to get them to do it more safely. The same can't be said of socialising now.

 

[CaptainHaddock]

4,000? Does the ground hold that many?

In theory but currently capacity is capped at 1,000 due to Covid.

 

[MikeWM]

The trouble with the tiers is it provides fuel for an “it’s not fair I’m in tier 3 and he’s in tier 2” argument, which up until now has played out as north versus south.

Yes, that's my point. Arguing about which block of the prison we think we ought to be in is just a distraction from fighting back about being in prison in the first place. Convenient way to divide and rule again, just like masks, etc.

 

[trainophile]

So theoretically being moved into tier 1 from tier 2 cuts down my travel options, as I could be turned around on my return home from a trip to a tier 2 area, whereas when both places were tier 2 I could move between them. Thanks a bunch!

 

[adc82140]

So theoretically being moved into tier 1 from tier 2 cuts down my travel options, as I could be turned around on my return home from a trip to a tier 2 area, whereas when both places were tier 2 I could move between them. Thanks a bunch!

No it doesn't. There are no restrictions from Tier 2 to Tier 1 and vice versa. If you live in Tier 2, the rules follow you (ie no mixing indoors, but it's unenforceable), if you live in Tier 1, you have to abide by Tier 2 rules in Tier 2.

 

[trainophile]

No it doesn't. There are no restrictions from Tier 2 to Tier 1 and vice versa. If you live in Tier 2, the rules follow you (ie no mixing indoors, but it's unenforceable), if you live in Tier 1, you have to abide by Tier 2 rules in Tier 2.

Ah, thanks for clarifying. Afraid I lost the plot with the various rules some time ago .

 

[adc82140]

Ah, thanks for clarifying. Afraid I lost the plot with the various rules some time ago .

It's understandable. To be honest I'm starting to think, despite being anti lockdown, that a January national lockdown (call it a Vaccine lockdown to put a positive spin on it) would be better than this in out shake it all about nonsense.

 

[trainophile]

It's understandable. To be honest I'm starting to think, despite being anti lockdown, that a January national lockdown (call it a Vaccine lockdown to put a positive spin on it) would be better than this in out shake it all about nonsense.

Trouble is, on a whim we could end up with both, in any order they select by sticking a pin in a short list of options, while wearing a blindfold!

 

[duncanp]

It's understandable. To be honest I'm starting to think, despite being anti lockdown, that a January national lockdown (call it a Vaccine lockdown to put a positive spin on it) would be better than this in out shake it all about nonsense.

If the government wants a national lockdown (in England) in January, then they will have to get that approved by parliament.

What they might do instead, to avoid the pesky inconvenience of democratic scrutiny, is move everywhere in England into Tier 3 from early in the new year, until the tier system comes up for renewal at the end of the month. (Tough luck all you publicans in Herefordshire and Bristol who thought that moving down a tier would allow you to re-open for more than two seconds, and sod all the money that you spent on buying in new stock)

I hope MPs grow a pair for once when this comes up in parliament and refuse to renew the lockdown or tier system unless there is a clear and permanent way out of this mess, once and for all)

 

[adc82140]

To be honest if we are all in Tier 3 we can travel at will, because the advice says to avoid ftavel in and out of tier 3 unless necessary.

 

[Chester1]

Boris won't make a lock down decision until he is forced to. Its only 16 days after the last English lockdown ended, that decision will not be for a while yet.

If the Oxford vaccine is approved by end of the year the chances of another English lockdown are low. The tier system (including local tier 4s) should slow things down enough to vaccinate a decent chunk of high risk people by end of February.

 

[6862]

I reckon that another lockdown is pretty much certain. Boris is only saying he wants to avoid it so that he can blame us peasants when he imposes one. We're back in the late October situation again. I reckon this is the new normal - a cycle of lockdown/'freedom'/lockdown interspersed with governmental chaos and them blaming us for trying to maintain some aspects of what it means to be a human.

 

[bramling]

Boris won't make a lock down decision until he is forced to. Its only 16 days after the last English lockdown ended, that decision will not be for a while yet.

If the Oxford vaccine is approved by end of the year the chances of another English lockdown are low. The tier system (including local tier 4s) should slow things down enough to vaccinate a decent chunk of high risk people by end of February.

I tend to agree with the views expressed on here that we'll probably get the whole country in something like "tier 3 +" straight after Christmas, which would effectively be a lockdown in all but name.

I just can't see Boris holding his nerve through the early part of January, even if the Oxford vaccine is immiment.

What happens will probably depend on what Sturgeon does. We already have Wales and NI going in to lockdown by name, if Sturgeon joins the bandwagon then I can't see Boris allowing himself to be the outlier. It's notable a third lockdown hasn't been ruled out today.

 

[Chester1]

I reckon that another lockdown is pretty much certain. Boris is only saying he wants to avoid it so that he can blame us peasants when he imposes one. We're back in the late October situation again. I reckon this is the new normal - a cycle of lockdown/'freedom'/lockdown interspersed with governmental chaos and them blaming us for trying to maintain some aspects of what it means to be a human.

I would agree if Pfizer vaccine remains the only one being rolled out. Currently 138,000 have had the first jab. Probably looking at 1.7 million becoming fully vaccinated each month next year. Oxford vaccine would increase that by at least 4 million a month. There is a world of difference between our situation at the end of February with and without an Oxford vaccine rollout from start of January.

I tend to agree with the views expressed on here that we'll probably get the whole country in something like "tier 3 +" straight after Christmas, which would effectively be a lockdown in all but name.

I just can't see Boris holding his nerve through the early part of January, even if the Oxford vaccine is immiment.

I doubt it will litterally be the whole country. Herefordshire getting added to Tier 1 shows that the government is keen to avoid putting areas with low case rates under very tight measures. I think mid Jan is more likely for introduction of tier 4. Boris will want to pretend its not required because of his Christmas policy. He can't do that in early Jan.

 

[bramling]

I doubt it will litterally be the whole country. Herefordshire getting added to Tier 1 shows that the government is keen to avoid putting areas with low case rates under very tight measures. I think mid Jan is more likely for introduction of tier 4. Boris will want to pretend its not required because of his Christmas policy. He can't do that in early Jan.

Unfortunately he can if he blames it on people not following his rules. Drakeford is already doing exactly that, and we haven't even had Christmas yet!

 

[duncanp]

Unfortunately he can if he blames it on people not following his rules. Drakeford is already doing exactly that, and we haven't even had Christmas yet!

Yes.

People in England (and the rest of the UK no doubt) will be blamed for the increase in cases after Christmas, due to them mixing in so called "festive bubbles".

In other words, we will all be blamed for the consequences of doing something that the government allowed us to do. (ie. mixing with other households over the five days from December 23rd)

The government (and by this I mean the devolved governments as well as the UK government) just didn't have the balls to prohibit people from meeting up over Christmas. It would have been better if they had been honest with people, and because they haven't been honest with people we are all going to suffer the consequences.

And the BBC are reporting that Boris Johnson is "hoping to avoid" another national lockdown.

Which of course means that it is a virtual certainty, just like when a government minister resigns after they have been given the Prime Minister's "full confidence and support".

 

[adc82140]

Interestingly Professor Pantsdown (Neil Ferguson) is not advocating a national lockdown this time:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-55360836?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=5fdcbaed6f142d02bee3d0ba%26Ferguson%3A%20I%27m%20more%20concerned%20about%20January%20than%20Christmas%262020-12-18T14%3A42%3A31.844Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:79412dfd-4efa-48d0-a9ec-46d85eeb0bed&pinned_post_asset_id=5fdcbaed6f142d02bee3d0ba&pinned_post_type=share

Prof Ferguson said it may be a case of more focused local measures than another national lockdown due to the differences between areas.

 

[duncanp]

Here is some more from Prof Neil Ferguson, the Imperial College London scientist. He told BBC Radio 4's World at One any future lockdowns may need to be more restrictive.

He said: “I’m actually more concerned about what we’re going to be facing in early January than I am over the Christmas period itself.

“There’ll be more general contacts in the population than typically occurs over the Christmas season and we’ll still have a limited amount of vaccine.

“The concern I have right now is that if we talk about the east of England - case numbers were rising during the last lockdown. So there may be a need for additional controls beyond even what were in place then.”

Prof Ferguson said it may be a case of more focused local measures than another national lockdown due to the differences between areas.

Well he would know all about "general contacts in the population" wouldn't he?

And why doesn't the BBC say "Here is some more from Prof Neil Ferguson, the Imperial College London scientist who broke the lockdown rules when it suited him, whilst still expecting everyone else to follow them"

 

[roversfan2001]

Does anyone still listen to what Ferguson has to say after his 500k deaths prediction?

 

[island]

If the government wants a national lockdown (in England) in January, then they will have to get that approved by parliament.

What they might do instead, to avoid the pesky inconvenience of democratic scrutiny, is move everywhere in England into Tier 3 from early in the new year, until the tier system comes up for renewal at the end of the month. (Tough luck all you publicans in Herefordshire and Bristol who thought that moving down a tier would allow you to re-open for more than two seconds, and sod all the money that you spent on buying in new stock)

I hope MPs grow a pair for once when this comes up in parliament and refuse to renew the lockdown or tier system unless there is a clear and permanent way out of this mess, once and for all)

Just to note that legally, movements between tiers have the same approval requirements as changes into and out of lockdowns.

Politically, of course, it may differ.

 

[Chester1]

Unfortunately he can if he blames it on people not following his rules. Drakeford is already doing exactly that, and we haven't even had Christmas yet!

Its still not worth the political risk. He might as well delay until later in January. I guess I am bias because I am booked to go on holiday on 5th January and a lockdown before 6th January would force me to cancel!

There is also brexit to factor in. Both lockdowns caused supply chain problems and the Govermment will be reluctant to cause additional problems in early Jan. A lockdown in early Jan would essentially be telling the public that we will be spending litterally half our time locked down until end of pandemic and I don't think the Government will want to deal with the backlash that will cause. My money is on three weeks of trialling local tier 4 before any decision is made. That won't happen until the 28th December at the earliest. That would put a lockdown (or not) decision around 18th January. Much would depend on the effect of tier system and the vaccine situation.

 

[Kite159]

To be honest if we are all in Tier 3 we can travel at will, because the advice says to avoid ftavel in and out of tier 3 unless necessary.

The big issue is that hotels are closed so whilst you can travel, you can't stay overnight.

-----

As for lockdown 3, it will also depend if the mass media start banging the drums for it, wheeling out scientists with "if we don't lockdown ASAP many people will die" reports etc.

Then straight away after the lockdown starts, start with the anti lockdown stories/scientists etc

 

[Mojo]

As a a supporter of Hereford FC I'm delighted with the shire dropping down into tier 1. not only does it mean I'll be able to go to home games and enjoy a few beers with friends beforehand, but also we are now the only "elite" football club allowed to have crowds of up to 4,000 and thus for the next fortnight at least will be the best supported football team in England!

4,000? Does the ground hold that many?

The rule is 4,000 or 50% capacity whichever is the lower. The Football Club's website says that they have a ground capacity of 5,213 which would mean a maximum legal capacity of 2,606. However they have a news article which says that they will keep capacity at 1,000 for the time being.

 

[Chester1]

The big issue is that hotels are closed so whilst you can travel, you can't stay overnight.

-----

As for lockdown 3, it will also depend if the mass media start banging the drums for it, wheeling out scientists with "if we don't lockdown ASAP many people will die" reports etc.

Then straight away after the lockdown starts, start with the anti lockdown stories/scientists etc

That started yesterday. I hope the Govermment has the sense not to lockdown one month after a month long lockdown. It can do a third lockdown but a fourth would be politically damaging. A month including February half term holiday would be their best bet. If the Oxford vaccine roll out starts early Jan then people will get behind one last push to buy time to get high risk people vaccinated. If England copies Wales and Northern Ireland and locksdown from 28th December until early February then there will be demands for a fourth lockdown in late February. Once the Oxford vaccine starts being rolled out we will be vaccinating more than 1 million people per week. Stalling for 3 weeks will make a huge difference to ensuring a third lockdown is the final one. There is some chance that Tiers 1-4 work and another lockdown can be avoided. Licencing the Pfizer vaccine extremely fast gives the UK a shot at it.

 

[joncombe]

That started yesterday.

And continues at a pace today.

The lead story on the BBC website at the moment is basically their "why hasn't Boris announced another lockdown yet" story.

Which starts out with essentially the statement that Northern Ireland and Wales have already announced lockdown on the 28th, that Scotland will be reviewing it on Tuesday and "have not ruled anything out".

Then it goes on to include this quote

The president of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine, Dr Katherine Henderson, said England and Scotland needed to do "whatever it takes" to get a grip of the virus, even if that meant "full lockdown".

Then some scare-mongering about the R number now being above 1. Then we have quotes from Kier Starmer.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said "nobody wants a third lockdown" but England's tiered system was "not strong enough".
He called for the prime minister to "toughen up over Christmas", saying the Welsh government's decision to limit Christmas bubbles to two households, instead of three, was a "step in the right direction".

His comment "step in the right direction" presumably hints that he thinks the Welsh, with an open-ended post-Christmas lockdown and a reduction in the number of households that can meet at Christmas still isn't enough.

Then we've got the quotes from Professor Ferguson that any future lockdown will have to be tougher than the one in November. Then later some more quotes from various NHS leaders about bed capacity etc.

So I'm quite sure the BBC and others will keep the pressure up over the weekend and Boris to cave in some way on Monday, if not before. Whether that will be cutting the number of households that can mix, reducing the number of days, a post Christmas lockdown or cancelling it altogether I don't know yet, but I would suspect a post Christmas lockdown, a reduction in days (perhaps 24, 25th and 26th only) and a reduction in number of households along with more "scary messaging".

 

[yorksrob]

Starmer is cooking his own goose. He'll be gone quicker than Corbyn at this rate.

 

[Chester1]

And continues at a pace today.

The lead story on the BBC website at the moment is basically their "why hasn't Boris announced another lockdown yet" story.

Which starts out with essentially the statement that Northern Ireland and Wales have already announced lockdown on the 28th, that Scotland will be reviewing it on Tuesday and "have not ruled anything out".

Then it goes on to include this quote



Then some scare-mongering about the R number now being above 1. Then we have quotes from Kier Starmer.



His comment "step in the right direction" presumably hints that he thinks the Welsh, with an open-ended post-Christmas lockdown and a reduction in the number of households that can meet at Christmas still isn't enough.

Then we've got the quotes from Professor Ferguson that any future lockdown will have to be tougher than the one in November. Then later some more quotes from various NHS leaders about bed capacity etc.

So I'm quite sure the BBC and others will keep the pressure up over the weekend and Boris to cave in some way on Monday, if not before. Whether that will be cutting the number of households that can mix, reducing the number of days, a post Christmas lockdown or cancelling it altogether I don't know yet, but I would suspect a post Christmas lockdown, a reduction in days (perhaps 24, 25th and 26th only) and a reduction in number of households along with more "scary messaging".

If Boris introduces and English lockdown on 28th December, 26 days after the end of a 30 day lockdown he will be toast. He will be guaranteeing a fourth lockdown and will take the blame for it. He stalled on the second lockdown for 6 weeks, I suspect he will do the same again. Tier 4 seems to be the best way to so that.

 

[joncombe]

Tier 4 seems to be the best way to so that.

You mean lockdown? But give it a different name?

 

[adc82140]

You mean lockdown? But give it a different name?

It's localised though. Makes all the difference to politicians circumventing parliament.