2020 US Presidential Election

[ainsworth74]

Add the whole soldiers and marines who died were suckers or losers thing:

Trump rejected the idea of the visit because he feared his hair would become disheveled in the rain, and because he did not believe it important to honor American war dead, according to four people with firsthand knowledge of the discussion that day. In a conversation with senior staff members on the morning of the scheduled visit, Trump said, “Why should I go to that cemetery? It’s filled with losers.” In a separate conversation on the same trip, Trump referred to the more than 1,800 marines who lost their lives at Belleau Wood as “suckers” for getting killed.

(emphasis added)

Trump: Americans Who Died in War Are ‘Losers’ and ‘Suckers’

The president has repeatedly disparaged the intelligence of service members, and asked that wounded veterans be kept out of military parades, multiple sources tell The Atlantic.

www.theatlantic.com

Then there was the farce over the dismissal of Captain Brett Crozier who was seemingly very popular captain:

(annoyingly I can't find the video that shows the honour guard formed by his crew on the hanger deck but I think this one gives the general idea)

He was in command of the aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt when it suffered with its outbreak early on in the year (April) and was dismissed for drawing attention to this which still has more than a bit of whiff of being tied up with Trump ending up being made to look bad due to his lack of response as Commander in Chief wanting the captain gone. Followed up by this statement made to the crew from the acting secretary of the Navy which did not, as you might imagine, do much to smooth over the issues...

After all of that and the other examples above I could well believe actually that a lot of armed forces personnel were split ballot voters. Voted Biden for the presidency but Republican down ticket. Because who the hell would vote for a guy who says things like that about about you, your comrades and the fallen?

 

[Chester1]

Trump is the first US president in my life time to not start a war. I suspect thats why the damage of such awful statements was limited to a 50:50 split (if Birches is correct). I very much hope Biden makes it a trend. I am mildly optimistic.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Trump is the first US president in my life time to not start a war. I suspect thats why the damage of such awful statements was limited to a 50:50 split (if Birches is correct). I very much hope Biden makes it a trend. I am mildly optimistic.

Indeed. The US should stop being the worlds policeman and stop cease starting wars. Indeed, agree with the sentiments - lets hope Biden continues this trend.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

How on earth did Rudi Giuliani get involved with Donald Trump?

I remember him being the Mayor of New York City for many years

Rudy was never an angel...

I seem to remember he'd been heavily criticised as NYC Mayor for a series of police brutality incidents involving unarmed African American males, but then 11/9 happened and unsurprisingly those "minor issues" were forgotten about.

 

[overthewater]

The votes are coming in much more slowly now, but for a few states I've been watching it looks like the current and final majorities (deficit in North Carolina) for Biden will be:

Georgia current majority 14,149, additional 40% of remaining 3,000 votes brings final majority to ~15,350 (<0.5%)
Arizona current majority 12,813, reduction of 13% of remaining 53,800 votes brings final majority to ~5,800
Pennsylvania current majority 45,516, additional 49% of remaining 136,300 votes brings final majority to ~112,000 (>0.5%)
North Carolina current deficit 74,870, additional 27% of remaining 104,800 votes brings final deficit to ~47,000
Nevada current majority 36,726, additional 21% of remaining 120,900 votes brings final majority to ~62,000

All calculations somewhat simplistic and with some inaccuracies. Additional votes based on performance in the state from votes recorded since 5/11/2020, "additional 40%" means that Biden is leading 70% to 30% in these, and hence the difference accounts for the increased majority.

Mail-in and other votes counted in North Carolina over the last few days favour Biden, but not enough to overcome the lead already established by Trump from voting on the day. Conversely, in Arizona the most recent votes counted go in Trump's favour, but not enough to overtake Biden's lead there.

A very well balanced review of the current situation, which that does prove overall what a incredibly tight race it was across the USA if you take away California. With the loss in the house and chance of statemate in the Senate plus the internal disputes in democrats I can't see nothing much change over the next 2 years.

Perhaps though i read a poll that said Biden-Trump were about 50% each with military personnel, Trump has alienated quite a lot of service personnel over the last 4 years.

Are these the same polls that under est trump while at the same time over est biden? It would be interesting to see if they match up with the actual poll information. If they do, they would be the only ones.

I think that Trump’s churlish reaction to John McCain’s death did not go down at all well with the military.

Its one of the only honest things he's done, in a weird content. He hates obama, and Mitt Romney aswell, that his opinion. He could have kept his mouth shut, which would have more than likley meant Arizona voting for him.

I just wonder what it was that caused so much fiction between the two.

Add the whole soldiers and marines who died were suckers or losers thing:

Trump: Americans Who Died in War Are ‘Losers’ and ‘Suckers’

The president has repeatedly disparaged the intelligence of service members, and asked that wounded veterans be kept out of military parades, multiple sources tell The Atlantic.

www.theatlantic.com

Its unclear the truth around this story, even Vox who are pretty good with stuff are not 100% sure, They may will be something about it, ( knowing full will of trumps record but it could have been misquote or something) , Since the scottish indep debacle I take nothing for fact unless there is 100% facts. I'm not defending what was said, i'm just saying.

Did Trump call US war dead “losers” and “suckers”? The controversy, explained.

It’s the word of a lot of trustworthy reporters relaying what unnamed people are saying against the word of untrustworthy people being open about where they stand.

www.vox.com

What would help clear this up — right now — is if any of the sources who spoke to the outlets or anyone else who heard Trump’s comments came forward to state on the record what they know. As of this moment, it’s the word of a lot of trustworthy reporters relaying what unnamed people are saying against the word of untrustworthy people being openly clear about where they stand.

Trump is the first US president in my life time to not start a war. I suspect thats why the damage of such awful statements was limited to a 50:50 split (if Birches is correct). I very much hope Biden makes it a trend. I am mildly optimistic.

The last person to have that honor was surprisingly a one term President Jimmy carter. Sunny Jim in 1982 said I wish I had a war.

Indeed. The US should stop being the worlds policeman and stop cease starting wars. Indeed, agree with the sentiments - lets hope Biden continues this trend.

Alas its not very likely with this track record.

 

[Chester1]

The last person to have that honor was surprisingly a one term President Jimmy carter. Sunny Jim in 1982 said I wish I had a war.

Alas its not very likely with this track record.

Biden will be a one term president too. Its worth noting though that the only one term president between Carter and Trump (Bush senior) did start a war. Prior to him 1 and 1/3rd of a term President Lyndon Johnson did too.

Jimmy Carter (still alive and active 39 years after leaving office) comes across as a genuinely decent guy and probably wasn't serious when he said that.

 

[Strathclyder]

Rudy was never an angel...

I seem to remember he'd been heavily criticised as NYC Mayor for a series of police brutality incidents involving unarmed African American males, but then 11/9 happened and unsurprisingly those "minor issues" were forgotten about.

As this Last Week Tonight with John Oliver segment from 2018 suggests, his entire life and career has been leading up to him hitching/welding his wagon to the Trump train. Less of a career going down the toilet and more of a natural progression/end point. And much like Trump, most New Yorkers knew who Rudy was and what he was like long before the former's candidacy/presidency and the latter's 2016 RNC keynote performance/prolonged stint as the president's personal attorney; Trump a grifter, conman and cheat and Rudy a slimeball.

 

[Chester1]

As this Last Week Tonight with John Oliver segment from 2018 suggests, his entire life and career has been leading up to him hitching/welding his wagon to the Trump train. Less of a career going down the toilet and more of a natural progression/end point. And much like Trump, most New Yorkers knew who Rudy was and what he was like long before the former's candidacy/presidency and the latter's 2016 RNC keynote performance/prolonged stint as the president's personal attorney: a grifter, conman and cheat and a slimeball respectively.

On the plus side he provided a good ending to the Borat sequel!

 

[najaB]

Trump is the first US president in my life time to not start a war.

I'm not sure how old you are, but I suspect you're not yet 78 years old. The last war that the USA declared was against Romania in 1942. Everything since then has been a "police action", "military intervention", "peacekeeping operation" or similar. It might seem like I'm splitting hairs, but Trump had at least two actions that could easily have escalated into a shooting war - the missile attack in Syria in 2017 and the attack on
Qasem Soleimani earlier this year. Fortunately in both cases there wasn't an escalation but that is down to restraint displayed by the other side.

I just wonder what it was that caused so much fiction between the two.

 

[Typhoon]

'He was a war hero because he was captured'. (From video clip in #1059)

That is what Trump still doesn't get.

But, along with those reports came word that American prisoners had proved tough to break. Asked to list the names of the men in his squadron, McCain instead listed the offensive line of the Green Bay Packers. When his famous name afforded him a chance to jump the line to go home early, he refused; prisoners were supposed to be released in the order in which they had been taken, and he knew he wasn’t next in line. When his cellmate’s broken arm went untreated, McCain fashioned a cast out of his own bandages.

That is just a flavour of what is at https://time.com/5260228/john-mccain-pow-history/. That is why he is a war hero. A refusal to let his father's position let him pull rank, a refusal to relieve his own suffering by casing it to be inflicted on others, a willingness to support others even at his lowest ebb. Too frequently Trump said things when he needed to shut up or provide a minimal response. This may have been the worst. As far as I can work out McCain was respected right across Congress. He deserved better.

 

[najaB]

That is just a flavour of what is at https://time.com/5260228/john-mccain-pow-history/. That is why he is a war hero. A refusal to let his father's position let him pull rank, a refusal to relieve his own suffering by casing it to be inflicted on others, a willingness to support others even at his lowest ebb.

And don't forget that Trump used his father's connections to avoid going to Vietnam in the first place.

 

[Typhoon]

And don't forget that Trump used his father's connections to avoid going to Vietnam in the first place.

After what Trump said about McCain, I'm not certain I would want Trump alongside me in any conflict. I would rather have the 'losers', even Captain Darling went over the top.

 

[jfollows]

Presumably some of the last votes to come in will be from military posted elsewhere, who on balance will probably tend more towards Trump.

In https://thesoulfulveteran.com/tag/who-did-the-us-military-really-vote-for-in-the-2016-us-election/ it's reported that in 2016:

123,724,157 Americans voted in 2016 (not counting votes for 3rd party candidates). If ten percent of the voters were active troops or inactive veterans, then about 12.4 million represents the military vote. If we divide the military pie into 8 slices, the slice that represents combat vets is about 1.55 million troops, but the other seven slices total 10.199 million troops that served in non-combat positions.

• Combat vets who voted for Trump = 930k
• Combat vets that voted for Clinton = 620k
• Non-Combat vets/troops that voted for Trump = 4.774 million
• Non-Combat vets/troops that voted for Clinton = 5.425 million

Total for Trump = 5,704,000
Total for Clinton = 6,045,000

That means Clinton won the military vote by 341,000.

Essentially the "headline" figure might be that 60% of troops voted for Trump in 2016, but when the military vote is broadened to include the large numbers of non-combat military personnel, the balance is more like 50% each, with a slight bias against Trump.
So how will that have changed in 2020?

 

[Springs Branch]

How on earth did Rudi Giuliani get involved with Donald Trump?

I remember him being the Mayor of New York City for many years

I was wondering the same thing. My first thought was that maybe, prior to becoming NYC Mayor, Giuliani had some sort of reputation as a successful lawyer for the New York Mob. And that's why his skill set fitted so well with the soon-to-be-ousted gangsters in the White House.

But looking up Giuliani's story on Wiki, apparently he had been famous as a mafia-busting New York prosecutor before his fame went global as the city's mayor in the aftermath of 9/11.


On a slight rail-based tangent, I remember the Giuliani administration being credited with removing huge numbers of homeless "residents" from the NY Subway system in the 1990s. Although the rolling stock was being renewed/refurbished, graffiti removed and crime tackled effectively, on many lines (like the 1 Train) it seemed like every subway car had one or two destitute people with their chattels making a temporary home there.

Along with the very visible homeless population on the streets, most of them seemed to disappear within a very short period. A colleague at the time commented "it's nice being able to get a non-sticky seat on the subway, but what has Giuliani actually done with all those homeless people?" I never did work out where they all went (I'm sure they weren't given homes to live in!)

 

[najaB]

I never did work out where they all went (I'm sure they weren't given homes to live in!)

Any coincidence that the McRib has been on and off the menu since the early 90s...?

 

[nlogax]

Any coincidence that the McRib has been on and off the menu since the early 90s...?

I shouldn't laugh..I shouldn't....

 

[berneyarms]

Biden's election, which now seems likely, will be good for Amtrak and urban rail transit but bad for the UK, particularly post Brexit. He is likely to side with Eire and by inference the EU in any dispute/conflict the UK has with them.

For the record, my country's name is "Ireland" when using the English language. Éire is the Irish language name, and I suspect that you don't write or speak in Irish!

Whatever my personal views, the election of an Irish-American POTUS is not good news for the UK. This is of particular consequence post Brexit in view of the EU's attitude to perfidious Albion, however pleasing it is to be able to send a P45 to the obnoxious P45.

What Biden will do is reinforce that the US view that the commitments agreed to in the Belfast Agreement of 1998 are adhered to by all parties, to avoid any chance of conflict arising again. Given the suffering that happened on the island of Ireland and in Great Britain over the period of "the Troubles", with over 3,500 deaths, I would like to think that we would all share that hope.

That should not be viewed as something "bad" for the UK, nor should it be about Biden siding with one side or the other.

I would like to think that defending a relatively peaceful society in Northern Ireland would remain a prime objective of the UK Government.

 

[RichT54]

I would like to think that defending a relatively peaceful society in Northern Ireland would remain a prime objective of the UK Government.

The problem is that the government is falsely claiming that their law breaking will preserve the agreement, when it does nothing of the sort.

 

[daodao]

For the record, my country's name is "Ireland" when using the English language. Éire is the Irish language name, and I suspect that you don't write or speak in Irish!


What Biden will do is reinforce that the US view that the commitments agreed to in the Belfast Agreement of 1998 are adhered to by all parties, to avoid any chance of conflict arising again. Given the suffering that happened on the island of Ireland and in Great Britain over the period of "the Troubles", with over 3,500 deaths, I would like to think that we would all share that hope.

That should not be viewed as something "bad" for the UK, nor should it be about Biden siding with one side or the other.

I would like to think that defending a relatively peaceful society in Northern Ireland would remain a prime objective of the UK Government.

I did not mean to cause offence by using the name Eire, which is in wide use as a name for the 26 counties that form the Irish Republic; would you prefer the use of that name instead? The name Ireland would not have been precise as it refers to the whole of the island, and includes the 6 counties currently administered by the UK.

It will be challenging to achieve the combination of (a) avoidance of internal trade or travel restrictions between the territories administered by the UK, (b) a hard Brexit, and (c) adherence to the Belfast agreement. The current Westminster administration's promotion of the Internal Markets bill prioritises (a) and (b), which is clearly of concern to Joe Biden.

 

[najaB]

The name Ireland would not have been precise as it refers to the whole of the island, and includes the 6 counties currently administered by the UK.

It's clear in context. If it's not clear from the context then you can use the Republic of Ireland (though that's not its official name).

 

[overthewater]

I never did work out where they all went (I'm sure they weren't given homes to live in!)

Los Angeles would be very good bet, since there homeless problem has increase ten-fold.

For the record, my country's name is "Ireland" when using the English language. Éire is the Irish language name, and I suspect that you don't write or speak in Irish!


What Biden will do is reinforce that the US view that the commitments agreed to in the Belfast Agreement of 1998 are adhered to by all parties, to avoid any chance of conflict arising again. Given the suffering that happened on the island of Ireland and in Great Britain over the period of "the Troubles", with over 3,500 deaths, I would like to think that we would all share that hope.

That should not be viewed as something "bad" for the UK, nor should it be about Biden siding with one side or the other.

I would like to think that defending a relatively peaceful society in Northern Ireland would remain a prime objective of the UK Government.

Surly UK had no chance even if trump was still to be kept in power? House which is still dem controlled made it clear it would not do a deal if Good friday agreement went to pot

 

[berneyarms]

I did not mean to cause offence by using the name Eire, which is in wide use as a name for the 26 counties that form the Irish Republic; would you prefer the use of that name instead? The name Ireland would not have been precise as it refers to the whole of the island, and includes the 6 counties currently administered by the UK.

It will be challenging to achieve the combination of (a) avoidance of internal trade or travel restrictions between the territories administered by the UK, (b) a hard Brexit, and (c) adherence to the Belfast agreement. The current Westminster administration's promotion of the Internal Markets bill prioritises (a) and (b), which is clearly of concern to Joe Biden

No offence was taken at all, don't worry, I just thought I'd explain it! It is a symptom of historical politics. Successive UK Governments used the term "Éire" to describe the country for political reasons until the Good Friday Agreement was signed into law. Mercifully we have moved on from that now, and they do recognise that the country is called "Ireland".

To be clear, the name of the country is "Ireland". The other area on the island is "Northern Ireland" (it's neither a country nor a province (three counties in Ulster are south of the border!) just to complicate matters).

Turning to the US, you have to remember that they played a massive role in getting the Belfast Agreement across the line, between George Mitchell chairing the talks, and Bill Clinton ringing the unionists and nationalists on Good Friday in the middle of the night to try and get them all to agree. It is seen as a major US foreign policy achievement and no US politician on either side of the House with an understanding of the history will want to see it threatened. That includes Republicans (I'll leave Trump out of that however, as I doubt he really gets it).

Finding a path out of the current situation for all concerned is really difficult, given the open border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, and the fact that the latter remains part of the United Kingdom, but I think some form of compromise is going to have to happen so that the normal life in Northern Ireland that everyone has now adjusted to can continue. That is in everyone's interest, be they from Ireland, Northern Ireland or Great Britain.

Going back to the awful days of IRA terrorism is not a runner.

Biden and Pelosi are reminding some of the more hard line Brexiteers of that reality, in taking the view they have.

But again I don't view Biden as being bad for the UK - the man is an expert in foreign policy, and he will want to keep both Ireland and Britain on side so to speak!

 

[Senex]

I did not mean to cause offence by using the name Eire, which is in wide use as a name for the 26 counties that form the Irish Republic; would you prefer the use of that name instead? The name Ireland would not have been precise as it refers to the whole of the island, and includes the 6 counties currently administered by the UK.

It will be challenging to achieve the combination of (a) avoidance of internal trade or travel restrictions between the territories administered by the UK, (b) a hard Brexit, and (c) adherence to the Belfast agreement. The current Westminster administration's promotion of the Internal Markets bill prioritises (a) and (b), which is clearly of concern to Joe Biden.

Is Éire really in wide use? Throughout my life I can only recall seeing/hearing it rarely, with the normal use being "Ireland" for the Republic and "Irish" for its people. It's always, again in my experience and so maybe not typical, been very specifically "Northern Ireland" and the "Northern Irish" for Six Counties.

 

[Gloster]

I must admit to using Eire if I want to make it clear that I am referring specifically to the 26 counties not part of the UK. More generally I just use Ireland.

 

[berneyarms]

As I said above, Éire is only used when speaking/writing in Irish.

I have never known any Irish person to say in English that they’re from “Éire”. Always “Ireland”.

Anyways we digress from the topic in hand - what will happen in the US!

 

[DerekC]

Trump can't bear to lose and has a pathological need to be the focus of attention every day. Also the Republican Party appears still to be in thrall to him, despite everything, because of his huge supporter base. There must be a strong possibility that he is going to go on refusing co-operation with the incoming administration, will leave the White House at the last possible moment accompanied by mass demonstrations of his armed supporters, then lead the Republicans in a continuing campaign to block and frustrate everything that Biden wants to do with a view to either himself or one of his offspring being re-elected in 2024. if (as expected) the GOP wins the Senate he will have a big lever to pull.

How good an operator is Biden? There is a hope that he can win over enough of the sensible wing of the Republican Party to get his key legislation through, but how many of them are there left? The Senate could certainly block the re-establishment of the Nuclear Treaty with Iran, but could it stop re-engagement with the Paris Accord and re-joining the WHO?

 

[cjmillsnun]

I think the US left both Paris and WHO by executive order so hopefully that should suffice to reinstate them.

 

[najaB]

I think the US left both Paris and WHO by executive order so hopefully that should suffice to reinstate them.

Indeed they did, and it would. Most of Trump's actions were by Executive Order, there was surprisingly little legislation actually passed considering they had unified control of government for two years.

 

[jfollows]

Arizona now "called" by the networks, including Fox, for Biden.

Biden is currently leading by 11,434 votes, but has only won 43.7% of the votes counted since 5/11/2020, so Trump has been reducing his deficit there from 68,300 over a week ago, however not enough to overturn Biden's majority, and now there are relatively few votes remaining to be counted.

[I estimate around 25,000 votes remaining, so that Biden would need to win fewer than 27% of these in order to lose his majority, which isn't going to happen. I calculate his majority will reduce by 3,200 leaving him ~8,000 votes ahead when the counting is complete.]

EDIT - I know Arizona a little bit, I have family in Tucson and have visited several times. Phoenix is a huge sprawl that goes on for ever - I've always returned to the UK on the direct early evening BA flight from Phoenix and have driven there from Tucson, usually N from Tucson then W, but I've also driving W from Tucson, then N. Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix, accounts for >2m of the ~3.3m total votes cast, and has voted 50.3% in Biden's favour this time. In the past it was more Republican. Pima County, which includes Tucson, has always been more Democrat, about 0.5m votes. I know the supermarket where Gabrielle Giffords was shot, her husband is now elected Senator, and a lot of people don't like what Trump said about John McCain, whose wife has now said positive things about Biden's win unsurprisingly.

These states shift over time. Texas was once solidly Democrat (Lyndon Johnson). Migration is changing the way America votes. Arizona is unlikely to be taken for granted as "Republican" for a long time now - Tucson is a nice place and clearly very strongly influenced by its Hispanic ("Latinx" seems to be the politically-correct term now?) population - my relatives who live there are all originally from Mexico or their children for sure.

EDIT - CNN just commented that there will be no recount in Arizona, even though Biden's margin is relatively small (.034% currently) the laws in Arizona only allow it for a much smaller margin (https://ballotpedia.org/Recount_laws_in_Arizona)

Arizona recount procedures​

Automatic recount procedures​

Automatic recounts are required under the following conditions:

“	A. A recount of the vote is required when the canvass of returns in a primary or general election shows that the margin between the two candidates receiving the greatest number of votes for a particular office, or between the number of votes cast for and against initiated or referred measures or proposals to amend the Constitution of Arizona, is less than or equal to the lesser of the following: 1. One-tenth of one per cent of the number of votes cast for both such candidates or upon such measures or proposals.2. Two hundred votes in the case of an office to be filled by state electors and for which the total number of votes cast is more than twenty-five thousand.3. Fifty votes in the case of an office to be filled by state electors and for which the total number of votes cast is twenty-five thousand or less.4. Two hundred votes in the case of an initiated or referred measure or proposal to amend the constitution.5. Fifty votes in the case of a member of the legislature.6. Ten votes in the case of an office to be filled by the electors of a city or town or a county or subdivision of a city, town or county. B. Subsection A does not apply to elections for precinct committeemen, school district governing boards, community college district governing boards, fire district boards or fire district chiefs or secretary-treasurers or boards of other special districts. [2]	”
—Arizona Revised Statutes

Automatic recounts are paid for by the county or town, depending on the race.[3] There is no set a deadline for the completion of an automatic recount.

Requested recount procedures​

Arizona does not allow requested recounts.

 

[ainsworth74]

Indeed they did, and it would. Most of Trump's actions were by Executive Order, there was surprisingly little legislation actually passed considering they had unified control of government for two years.

That's because of the obstructionist Dems in Congress!

Wait...