Our total reliance on a vaccine and putting life on hold until it's rolled out

[cuccir]

There may be only 30 million doses of a particular vaccine ordered, but the UK has ordered 380 million doses of various vaccines in total. Some of that will be hedging bets in case some of them don't turn out to work, but I don't think there's any suggestion that particular groups won't be vaccinated. Though given the scale of trying to vaccinate the whole population, undoubtedly some of the more vulnerable groups will be targeted to be vaccinated first.

Exactly. It's also worth saying that you don't need to vaccinate everyone to significantly cut down the spread of covid-19. If you vaccinate 50% of the population, and another 15% have protection via previous infection (which at worst seems to result in reduced likelihood of getting it again) then you significantly reduce infection rates for all as there are far fewer vectors.

 

[yorkie]

While this is just one opinion, it does show I think a sign that even those fully on board in the spring have now had enough ...

Yep, absolutely.

I speak to many people and I get similar vibes. I don't just mean people I work with or forum members, but contractors, parents, people I play football with, and much more. Tomorrow I really need to make sure I make the time to tell my union to get stuffed and make sure they're not getting a penny off my next payslip. Even my Union rep privately agrees with me!

 

[brad465]

As the lockdown thread is "locked" I've gone for this thread which has relevance as well for this one - it seems those on the backbenches who are rebellious to restrictions and our current strategy as a whole are starting to mobilise further:

Covid: Tory MPs form group to oppose future lockdowns

The group of around 50 MPs says a repeat of current restrictions would "devastate" the economy and "cost lives".

www.bbc.co.uk

Conservative MPs who voted against the current lockdown in England have formed a new group aimed at preventing further blanket national restrictions.

The Covid Recovery Group will argue for a different approach when the current curbs end on 2 December to enable the country to "live with the virus".

Its 30-plus members want more analysis of the economic damage being done and to challenge the scientific advice.

The PM has stressed the NHS is at risk of a "medical disaster" without action.

Boris Johnson has insisted the data on hospitalisations and deaths is "irrefutable" and justified the four-week closure of non-essential shops, pubs, restaurants and leisure facilities, which took effect from 4 November.

A further 20,412 coronavirus cases were reported in the UK on Tuesday, with another 532 deaths within 28 days of a positive test recorded.

Although Parliament overwhelmingly backed the restrictions - which include ban on contacts between members of different households outside a support bubble either indoors or in private gardens - in a vote at the start of November, 34 Tory MPs opposed them while 19, including former PM Theresa May, abstained.

 

[HSTEd]

Even at the desired 1260 vaccination centres administering the target 975 doses per week, that works out at only about 87,000 people completing the two dose vaccination per day.

Even vaccinating only pensioners this is going to take a LONG time.

 

[LittleAH]

I hope this is the right thread for this point: one of my Facebook friends was up in arms at the sight of lockdown flouters in April and a non-partisan denouncing of all the protests in June.

Today they quoted a news article on the vaccine discovery and added the following opinion; "This isn’t a huge rollout task they only need to prioritise the weak, elderly and vulnerable and then we can all get back to our lives. I now know of many people that have had covid and none of them died. And only a small number went to hospital. Fast track Pfizer’s vaccine and stop throwing money away on furlough and bounce back schemes I don’t want to be taxed to death for the rest of my life thanks."

While this is just one opinion, it does show I think a sign that even those fully on board in the spring have now had enough and are aware of the long term costs of all this. Furthermore the news of a vaccine, regardless of how effective it actually is, will make people question why most restrictions remain in place once the most vulnerable have presumably got it.

This is all down to our awful government. Locked down too late in march, half-arsed the lockdown, no proper policing of those flouting the regulations, people entering the UK weren't required to isolate until June, Dominic Cummings affair, pointless Eat out to Help out campaign which help spread the virus again etc.

People might be bored of it, but without compliance it just prolongs the situation that we are in. Sadly, there are too many selfish idiots out there.

 

[cuccir]

Even at the desired 1260 vaccination centres administering the target 975 doses per week, that works out at only about 87,000 people completing the two dose vaccination per day.

Even vaccinating only pensioners this is going to take a LONG time.

The two doses must be 28 days apart and only start working fully 2 weeks later.

At full capacity, if those numbers are right, every 28 days you can vaccinate 4,675,200 people. You then need to vaccinate the same people for the next 28 days.

If it takes till say the start of February for vaccination to reach full capacity, at that rate you can vaccinate 18,700,800 people by the start of autumn 2021. That's a lot, but it's clearly not loads.

More positively, there are 15.6 million over 60s in the UK, 1.2 million NHS employees, and 500,000 teachers, with spare capacity for another 1.3 million vulnerable people or key workers in that period. That makes it feasible to vaccinate all of them by September next year, that is by the start of that school year and winter flu season.

That to me seems a reasonable point to say that most if not all restrictions should be removed (but to be very clear: I'd imagine removing the harshest restrictions much sooner).

That timeframe obviously improves if some of the single injection vaccines can work, or if vaccination capacity can be increased. My calculations are probably quite cautious too eg you may well be able to get a couple of million in before February. Combine with summer conditions being worse for the virus and perhaps more bullishly the vaccine brings us close to normal by June?

 

[Bantamzen]

I hope this is the right thread for this point: one of my Facebook friends was up in arms at the sight of lockdown flouters in April and a non-partisan denouncing of all the protests in June.

Today they quoted a news article on the vaccine discovery and added the following opinion; "This isn’t a huge rollout task they only need to prioritise the weak, elderly and vulnerable and then we can all get back to our lives. I now know of many people that have had covid and none of them died. And only a small number went to hospital. Fast track Pfizer’s vaccine and stop throwing money away on furlough and bounce back schemes I don’t want to be taxed to death for the rest of my life thanks."

While this is just one opinion, it does show I think a sign that even those fully on board in the spring have now had enough and are aware of the long term costs of all this. Furthermore the news of a vaccine, regardless of how effective it actually is, will make people question why most restrictions remain in place once the most vulnerable have presumably got it.

I wish this message would be put out there to the wider population. Ever since the news broke of the progress of the Pfizer vaccine social media has exploded with post from people, generally people at low risk, scrambling to put their hands to get the vaccine the moment it lands. Try to explain to them the logistics of getting 14 billion vials out there to vaccine the entire world might take years, and that the cost of such a process means that they almost certainly won't be first in line if at all leads to some very angry responses. I suspect an awful lot of people are going to be angry when they find out that they will not be getting any vaccine any time soon.

Edit

I also noticed a bit of PR creep leaking into the media over the potential vaccine. There is a Q&A piece on the BBC News site that starts off fairly realistically, but then proffers up this little beauty of a statement:

How will the vulnerable be protected from Covid? And other questions

The government has announced the end of all Covid restrictions in England.

www.bbc.co.uk

If a coronavirus vaccine is approved for widespread use, it is likely that people will still be offered the jab even if they have had Covid-19 in the past. That’s because natural immunity may not be long-lived and immunisation could offer more protection.

Now given that the Pfizer vaccine uses the immune system to recognise certain proteins that virus uses to connect to cells in order to develop anti-bodies and cell memory, it seems an odd statement to make. Whether the immune system is initially triggered by the virus or protein based vaccine surely won't make any difference to how long immunity might be expected? They both use exactly the same immune system processes to trigger a response. I fear this is the early stages of profiteering, something I expect a lot of in the coming years.

 

[yorksrob]

This is all down to our awful government. Locked down too late in march, half-arsed the lockdown, no proper policing of those flouting the regulations, people entering the UK weren't required to isolate until June, Dominic Cummings affair, pointless Eat out to Help out campaign which help spread the virus again etc.

People might be bored of it, but without compliance it just prolongs the situation that we are in. Sadly, there are too many selfish idiots out there.

It is nonsense to believe that the endless cycle of lockdown offers anything other than destruction and more impoverishment. The only thing pointless lockdown restrictions do offer is a way for the Government to get people to blame eachother for the effects of a seasonal virus which spreads as much when people go to work, school or college as it does when people go to the seaside.

Even if everyone followed the rules to the letter the problem wouldn't go away.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Nov 2020 ==

As the lockdown thread is "locked" I've gone for this thread which has relevance as well for this one - it seems those on the backbenches who are rebellious to restrictions and our current strategy as a whole are starting to mobilise further:

Covid: Tory MPs form group to oppose future lockdowns

The group of around 50 MPs says a repeat of current restrictions would "devastate" the economy and "cost lives".

www.bbc.co.uk

This is good news. This vaccine can't be allowed to become another excuse for more lockdown.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Nov 2020 ==

I am continually baffled by the groupthink on this forum that Covid is little more than a kind of hoax which will just dissapear if we ignore it. It is not just another form of flu. Lockdowns are the only way to stop the health system being overwhelmed. Do you want Britain to end up like Italy in the first wave?

Oh dear oh dear.

Yet another coming up with the nonsense that anyone against highly damaging lockdowns believe covid "is a hoax". Covid is not a hoax, and the only sensible way to mitigate its effects is to put in sensible measures such as social distancing etc.

If lockdown were to have any chance of "working" (or as near to working as we could expect to get), they would have to lockdown everything. Work, schools, college, the lot.

Picking and choosing what the Government thinks is expedient doesn't work, and the fact that they have to do this is admission that the policy doesn't work.

 

[JonathanP]

It is nonsense to believe that the endless cycle of lockdown offers anything other than destruction and more impoverishment. The only thing pointless lockdown restrictions do offer is a way for the Government to get people to blame eachother for the effects of a seasonal virus which spreads as much when people go to work, school or college as it does when people go to the seaside.

This is good news. This vaccine can't be allowed to become another excuse for more lockdown.

I am continually baffled by the groupthink on this forum that Covid is little more than a kind of hoax which will just dissapear if we ignore it. It is not just another form of flu. Lockdowns are the only way to stop the health system being overwhelmed. Do you want Britain to end up like Italy in the first wave?

 

[HSTEd]

I believe I have been fairly clear that I would expect a couple hundred thousand dead, which is not a normal flu year.

But I still think it's better than what we have now, and the impacts of that.
Hospitals being overloaded for a handful of weeks is not really a world ending nightmare.

 

[43066]

I believe I have been fairly clear that I would expect a couple hundred thousand dead, which is not a normal flu year.

And of course we will be getting those deaths (and more) regardless, just of much younger people than the average Covid victim, and spread over a longer period. The ONS predicted 200k excess deaths from the first lockdown alone...

 

[yorksrob]

And there are still things that aren't being done to mitigate the issue. Why are care homes still relying on a merry-go-round of underpaid agency staff. Why have options not been provided to help members of multi-generational households to rehouse themselves.

It seems that lockdown has become the "go-to" catch all option.

 

[MikeWM]

And here comes the next link in the chain of effective compulsion. Remember how this was dismissed as a 'conspiracy theory' when first mentioned back in March?

Premier League in talks with government amid hope vaccine could see fans back in stadiums by end of season

And the Premier League are negotiating with officials at the Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport over how the vaccine could be incorporated within a digital health passport, helping to speed up the return of fans next year.

(bold mine)

How long before a 'digital health passport' is required to catch a train or go to Tesco?

 

[DustyBin]

This is all down to our awful government. Locked down too late in march, half-arsed the lockdown, no proper policing of those flouting the regulations, people entering the UK weren't required to isolate until June, Dominic Cummings affair, pointless Eat out to Help out campaign which help spread the virus again etc.

People might be bored of it, but without compliance it just prolongs the situation that we are in. Sadly, there are too many selfish idiots out there.

To say "people might be bored of it" is rather downplaying the devastating impact this is having on peoples lives. It's hardly suprising people are ignoring the rules, especially when the lockdown appears to have been implemented on the back of some questionable statistics....

 

[87electric]

And here comes the next link in the chain of effective compulsion. Remember how this was dismissed as a 'conspiracy theory' when first mentioned back in March?

Premier League in talks with government amid hope vaccine could see fans back in stadiums by end of season

(bold mine)

How long before a 'digital health passport' is required to catch a train or go to Tesco?

Indeed. I've seen this coming a mile away. Want to enjoy your leisure time again? Stand in line for your new digital health passport. Non compliance will lead to restriction of movement. I was predicting the airlines would be the first to operate the idea, but going for the leisure market first is more obvious.

 

[DB]

To say "people might be bored of it" is rather downplaying the devastating impact this is having on peoples lives. It's hardly suprising people are ignoring the rules, especially when the lockdown appears to have been implemented on the back of some questionable statistics....

Indeed, plus the claim that compliance would lead to it being shorter is baseless - why do those who promote this persist in claiming it? At most, compliance would just slow down the transmission a bit, making it drag on even longer.

 

[MattA7]

Worryingly it makes you wonder how badly disadvantaged unvaccinated people will be treated by society. We should also remember that there will be some who vaccination is medically contraindicated.

 

[Class 33]

So yesterday the fantastic news of this vaccine and an increase of optimism of life returning to normal by the spring. When asked if life can return to normal by the spring, government advisor John Bell said ""Yes, yes, yes. I am probably the first guy to say that but I will say that with some confidence.".

However today in the briefing, when Jonathan Van Tam was asked the same question he was unable to say when life could return to normal! Talk about kicking the can down the road!!

You would think that with this vaccine starting to be rolled out soon that by April surely life should be starting to return to normal - no social distancing, no face mask wearing requirements, etc. We just can not continue like we are for too much longer now. It will be beyond insanity and belief, if social distancing, face mask wearing, etc drags on beyond the end of March, especially with this vaccine being rolled out!

 

[DB]

So yesterday the fantastic news of this vaccine and an increase of optimism of life returning to normal by the spring. When asked if life can return to normal by the spring, government advisor John Bell said ""Yes, yes, yes. I am probably the first guy to say that but I will say that with some confidence.".

However today in the briefing, when Jonathan Van Tam was asked the same question he was unable to say when life could return to normal! Talk about kicking the can down the road!!

You would think that with this vaccine starting to be rolled out soon that by April surely life should be starting to return to normal - no social distancing, no face mask wearing requirements, etc. We just can not continue like we are for too much longer now. It will be beyond insanity and belief, if social distancing, face mask wearing, etc drags on beyond the end of March, especially with this vaccine being rolled out!

I think it likely that by March the level of compliance with any restrictions will be so low that they will have no choice but to drop most of them.

 

[Class 33]

I think it likely that by March the level of compliance with any restrictions will be so low that they will have no choice but to drop most of them.

Let's hope so, in particular this dreaded social distancing that is causing so many problems and disruption to the economy and people's lives, and taking away the good things in life.

After yesterday's news I was feeling somewhat more optimistic that all these restrictions will be gone by 1st April. But after hearing what Mr Van Tam said today, I'm not feeling quite so optimistic now. Wouldn't be too surprised if by March when surely we should have defeated(or near enough at least) this second wave, that the likes of Johnson, Whitty, Valance, etc are still saying "We still need to keep up social distancing."!!!

 

[PTR 444]

Just out of interest, assuming all goes to plan with the Pfizer vaccine, how long would it take to immunise everyone over the age of 50 and those with underlying health conditions?

If we can just get those groups vaccinated by the beginning of March, then I’d say there would be a strong case for removing nearly all restrictions by April. I guess the government just don’t want to let the game away all at once in case something goes horribly wrong.

 

[DustyBin]

Just out of interest, assuming all goes to plan with the Pfizer vaccine, how long would it take to immunise everyone over the age of 50 and those with underlying health conditions?

If we can just get those groups vaccinated by the beginning of March, then I’d say there would be a strong case for removing nearly all restrictions by April. I guess the government just don’t want to let the game away all at once in case something goes horribly wrong.

I have an awful feeling that we'll not return to anything like normal even after the vaccine has been rolled out. There is a suggestion that the vaccine(s) will only help us to live with the virus, which to me implies that some restrictions will remain long term. I hope I'm wrong.

Also, rather disturbingly, there was a scientist on Sky News just now saying that we need to be kept in a permanent state of readiness to deal with another pandemic. We do of course need to take learnings from what has happened, but permanent restrictions and the possibility of being locked down everytime there's a bug going around really doesn't appeal to me!

 

[greyman42]

I suspect an awful lot of people are going to be angry when they find out that they will not be getting any vaccine any time soon.

Well i could not care less when i get the vaccine.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Nov 2020 ==

I am continually baffled by the groupthink on this forum that Covid is little more than a kind of hoax which will just dissapear if we ignore it. It is not just another form of flu. Lockdowns are the only way to stop the health system being overwhelmed. Do you want Britain to end up like Italy in the first wave?

Do you want the economy to end up an absolute basket case with millions unemployed with no prospect of work.

 

[Richard Scott]

This is all down to our awful government. Locked down too late in march, half-arsed the lockdown, no proper policing of those flouting the regulations, people entering the UK weren't required to isolate until June, Dominic Cummings affair, pointless Eat out to Help out campaign which help spread the virus again etc.

People might be bored of it, but without compliance it just prolongs the situation that we are in. Sadly, there are too many selfish idiots out there.

So people have done as they've been asked since March in the whole with no sign of any improvement. Think the selfish idiots might be those who want all this to continue as currently there seems no sign of it going away, the economy is down the pan, we're building up a number of well-being and mental health issues not to mention the waiting lists. How much longer do you expect people to carry on like this? They're not being selfish or idiotic but have come to realise what the reality is. Stop being so self righteous and condescending.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Nov 2020 ==

I think it likely that by March the level of compliance with any restrictions will be so low that they will have no choice but to drop most of them.

By March? From my observations it's pretty much gone now!!!!

 

[yorksrob]

Let's hope so, in particular this dreaded social distancing that is causing so many problems and disruption to the economy and people's lives, and taking away the good things in life.

After yesterday's news I was feeling somewhat more optimistic that all these restrictions will be gone by 1st April. But after hearing what Mr Van Tam said today, I'm not feeling quite so optimistic now. Wouldn't be too surprised if by March when surely we should have defeated(or near enough at least) this second wave, that the likes of Johnson, Whitty, Valance, etc are still saying "We still need to keep up social distancing."!!!

I'm of the view that we need some measures, including a level of social distancing at least until the more vulnerable groups have recieved a vaccine. However, I believe that people's likelihood of following sensible measures is undermined by lockdowns and onerous restrictions. Such restrictions are just teaching people to disobey authority in general.

 

[Bantamzen]

Well i could not care less when i get the vaccine.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Nov 2020 ==


Do you want the economy to end up an absolute basket case with millions unemployed with no prospect of work.

You may not get it at all.

 

[Class 33]

I am continually baffled by the groupthink on this forum that Covid is little more than a kind of hoax which will just dissapear if we ignore it. It is not just another form of flu. Lockdowns are the only way to stop the health system being overwhelmed. Do you want Britain to end up like Italy in the first wave?

I think the vast vast majority of forum members on here do not think that Coronavirus is a hoax. But many think that all these lockdowns and seemingly never-ending restrictions are an over-reaction.

We can't keep going in and out of lockdowns for many months or even years to come. It is causing absolutely catastrophic damage to the economy and people's livelihoods and mental health. Boris and his cabinet are constantly coming up with more restrictions and lockdown plans. We've now got this national lockdown after Johnson was constantly pestered by the likes of SAGE and Whitty and Valance coming up with ridiculous projections of daily deaths reaching 4,000 per day and the need for an urgent national lockdown! And now there is talk that when we come out of this lockdown, that whilst we will be going back to the tiered restrictions, that even tougher Tier 4 restrictions could be introduced, along with the size of each region being increased! We really do not need this! It seems the cabinet are treating this like a strategy game. They could be saying "Well this isn't working too well. Let's try something else instead.". They are playing with real people's lives with all this!

Johnson and his cabinet really need now to start working on an exit strategy out of all this lockdown business and all these restrictions over the coming months. Indeed a number of MP's have told/asked Johnson this, including what is the criteria required to be downgraded from say Tier 3 restrictions down to Tier 2 restrictions. But from my observations when witnessing these questions/comments in parliament, Johnson never gives a satisfactory proper answer!

In a previous Downing Street Press Briefing a few weeks, Van Tam was asked if a successful vaccine is found and rolled out can social distancing then be scrapped. To which he said yes if a successful vaccine is found and rolled out social distancing can then be scrapped. Well all being well(unless things don't go according to plan) a successful vaccine has now be found and will be rolled out over the next few months. So let's hope by April, all this lockdown, social distancing, face mask wearing laws, etc will all be scrapped, and that they don't come up with other excuses as to why all these restrictions needs to continue.

 

[Horizon22]

I think the vast vast majority of forum members on here do not think that Coronavirus is a hoax. But many think that all these lockdowns and seemingly never-ending restrictions are an over-reaction.

We can't keep going in and out of lockdowns for many months or even years to come. It is causing absolutely catastrophic damage to the economy and people's livelihoods and mental health. Boris and his cabinet are constantly coming up with more restrictions and lockdown plans. We've now got this national lockdown after Johnson was constantly pestered by the likes of SAGE and Whitty and Valance coming up with ridiculous projections of daily deaths reaching 4,000 per day and the need for an urgent national lockdown!

Whilst 4,000 might be slightly extreme it has to be remembered that was if the restrictions remained broadly low or similar. We reached almost 600 today, so I wouldn't say its necessarily ridiculous as an upper limit.

 

[Carlisle]

Lockdowns are the only way to stop the health system being overwhelmed.

It may not be too long before there’s pressure to introduce similar measures ,on hospitality anyway , every last Friday before Christmas & New Years Eve, to assist our emergency services The floodgates are going to be difficult to close

 

[Domh245]

Whilst 4,000 might be slightly extreme it has to be remembered that was if the restrictions remained broadly low or similar. We reached almost 600 today, so I wouldn't say its necessarily ridiculous as an upper limit.

Firstly remember that the near 600 is reported today, not actually died today - some historic comparisons of "peak" days show them to be significantly higher than the actual number. Also remember that cases have been (by just about every metric) plateauing for the last few weeks - it is therefore absurd to assume continued, unchecked exponential growth at the upper limit necessary to hit 4k a day. As an "if we rolled back to februrary and instructed pensioners to lick every doorknob" scenario, it's a reasonable worst case, but with all the data we had on the trajectory before the most recent impositions of tiers & lockdowns, it's ludicrous