can public transport ever recover from COVID-19

[dk1]

I find a lot of the problem is people are buying cheap nasty face coverings. Just make sure you get yourself half decent ones & wearing them for the journey is no problem whatsoever. The odd break for refreshment is permitted too.

 

[Carlisle]

Well, they certainly won't recover while the government continues to enact restrictions designed to stop people from travelling!

Agreed, usage appeared to recover reasonably well in summer but fell away again once Wales reimposed some travel restrictions, England tightened rules on household mixing then Scotland essentially closed all indoor hospitality for alcohol consumption

 

[yorksrob]

We won't see the true nature of railway passenger transport until the medical emergency has concluded. It's no use trying to second guess the outcome based on a sea of ever changing restrictions and lockdowns.

 

[Richard Scott]

I find a lot of the problem is people are buying cheap nasty face coverings. Just make sure you get yourself half decent ones & wearing them for the journey is no problem whatsoever. The odd break for refreshment is permitted too.

I have decent ones but they are still uncomfortable. Why do those who find them easy to wear keep trying to dictate to us that don't. I restrict travel now as not pleasant and won't be returning until these measures are lifted. I used to put a fair amount of money in the farebox and if others are of same opinion then this money isn't going to be forthcoming and services may be at risk irrespective of what some people try and tell us to do.

 

[dk1]

I have decent ones but they are still uncomfortable. Why do those who find them easy to wear keep trying to dictate to us that don't. I restrict travel now as not pleasant and won't be returning until these measures are lifted. I used to put a fair amount of money in the farebox and if others are of same opinion then this money isn't going to be forthcoming and services may be at risk irrespective of what some people try and tell us to do.

I think you could look at the dictating thing from both sides. It's compulsory to wear them unless exempt. If anyone doesn't want to travel simply for that reason then so be it. It isn't a great deal really. Everything is in ERMA for the foreseeable on the railway & may be extended beyond the current expiry dates already agreed. Time will tell as this whole pandemic is very fluid.

 

[Richard Scott]

I think you could look at the dictating thing from both sides. It's compulsory to wear them unless exempt. If anyone doesn't want to travel simply for that reason then so be it. It isn't a great deal really. Everything is in ERMA for the foreseeable on the railway & may be extended beyond the current expiry dates already agreed. Time will tell as this whole pandemic is very fluid.

I know it's compulsory unless exempt my point being some of us can't put up with it so aren't travelling for that reason, appreciate that is a choice but it's a choice that is costing the rail industry and may be putting lines/services/jobs at risk. In the past 6 months I've spent about £50 on rail travel, normally I'd easily spend that in a month. When people start moaning about cuts need to think about why this might have occurred.

 

[dk1]

I know it's compulsory unless exempt my point being some of us can't put up with it so aren't travelling for that reason, appreciate that is a choice but it's a choice that is costing the rail industry and may be putting lines/services/jobs at risk. When people start moaning about cuts need to think about why this might have occurred.

Might be a few service reductions at peak times but very doubt it will be much more than that. Fingers crossed we will turn a corner in the Spring.

 

[Richard Scott]

Might be a few service reductions at peak times but very doubt it will be much more than that. Fingers crossed we will turn a corner in the Spring.

I hope you are right but railways can't survive just moving fresh air around, may be acceptable now but when inevitable tax rises come in some things will have to give.

 

[Jamesrob637]

Peaktime railways were creaking until COVID. Nobody I know wants a return to 2019 passenger numbers unless we introduce longer and more frequent trains. Given that can't happen in many places I know, peak fares need to come more in line with off-peak fares (10-20% supplement maybe) and people will slowly return to the railway. Or get Carnet tickets rolled out, so many days in a certain period.

 

[trainophile]

If we're going to be stuck with Covid maybe for many years to come, people aren't going to want to travel on even fairly full services, and certainly not to sit next to a stranger for any duration of time. This is going to present a huge challenge to the railways, and one that doesn't seem to have any obvious solution. They will probably have to raise fares radically to compensate for the reduction in passenger numbers.

 

[Jamesrob637]

If we're going to be stuck with Covid maybe for many years to come, people aren't going to want to travel on even fairly full services, and certainly not to sit next to a stranger for any duration of time. This is going to present a huge challenge to the railways, and one that doesn't seem to have any obvious solution. They will probably have to raise fares radically to compensate for the reduction in passenger numbers.

It's only people sitting next to others when there are other free seats in the carriage that gets my goat. If it's already well busy, fair enough.

 

[Richard Scott]

If we're going to be stuck with Covid maybe for many years to come, people aren't going to want to travel on even fairly full services, and certainly not to sit next to a stranger for any duration of time. This is going to present a huge challenge to the railways, and one that doesn't seem to have any obvious solution. They will probably have to raise fares radically to compensate for the reduction in passenger numbers.

Well that's their choice not to travel. Either people accept they may have to sit next to someone else or carry on being a flower and expect everyone else to work around them, which isn't going to happen. I think it'll be the public's attitude that will have to change not the operator trying to allow for this. When I was in Europe in August many trains were loaded to capacity, that's going to have to be accepted here too like it was before all of this.

 

[Mag_seven]

If we're going to be stuck with Covid maybe for many years to come, people aren't going to want to travel on even fairly full services, and certainly not to sit next to a stranger for any duration of time.

I suggest they really need to stop being scared and recognise that travelling will always carry a risk of catching something just like it always has.

I think it'll be the public's attitude that will have to change not the operator trying to allow for this.

Exactly this - the government must stop scaring people about the risks of catching COVID 19 and educate them. For the great great majority catching it will result in nothing other than just a mild illness just like catching anything else does.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

As I understand it, the plan for one of my local bus operators is to reduce frequencies on all routes as soon as the Government remove the requirement for physical distancing on buses. People will just have to get used to it when that happens.

 

[londonmidland]

For anyone that has travelled on the trains this weekend, what have the passenger loadings been like?

From a few pictures I’ve seen, everywhere looks completely dead.

 

[trainophile]

For anyone that has travelled on the trains this weekend, what have the passenger loadings been like?

From a few pictures I’ve seen, everywhere looks completely dead.

Unsurprising as we're in lockdown again.

 

[cactustwirly]

Was out an about in the Cookham area, I saw the Marlow train and it was surprisingly busy for a Sunday afternoon in lockdown.

 

[bramling]

We won't see the true nature of railway passenger transport until the medical emergency has concluded. It's no use trying to second guess the outcome based on a sea of ever changing restrictions and lockdowns.

I do think some of the dire prophecies about long-term reductions are probably not going to be played out.

Right now I think most people just want to get back to normal, and novelty is wearing off for all but the cosiest of work-from-homers.

The one to watch may turn out to be Home Counties 9-5 commuting, but even that I think will be more a case of how long rather than not at all. A modest fall in peak demand wouldn’t really go amiss anyway, as were it to be sustained it would avoid the need for some expensive capacity schemes.

I do think the railway, or perhaps more correctly the DFT, is going to have to scratch its head on quality however. Part of the 1990s and 2000s boom was I think influenced by the way the fledgling privatised TOCs invested in high-quality trains with interiors which went some way to matching car levels of comfort. Something like a Connex-interior Electrostar was pretty luxurious (I remember getting on one at Ashford for the first time and being very pleasantly surprised by how nice the interior was, despite viewing them with trepidation as they were replacing fine stuff like VEPs). By contrast something like standard class on a 700 doesn’t exactly tip the scales in favour of taking the train where there’s alternative options available).

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Nov 2020 ==

For anyone that has travelled on the trains this weekend, what have the passenger loadings been like?

From a few pictures I’ve seen, everywhere looks completely dead.

Underground was actually fairly quiet today, more so than yesterday.

 

[yorksrob]

I do think some of the dire prophecies about long-term reductions are probably not going to be played out.

Right now I think most people just want to get back to normal, and novelty is wearing off for all but the cosiest of work-from-homers.

The one to watch may turn out to be Home Counties 9-5 commuting, but even that I think will be more a case of how long rather than not at all. A modest fall in peak demand wouldn’t really go amiss anyway, as were it to be sustained it would avoid the need for some expensive capacity schemes.

I do think the railway, or perhaps more correctly the DFT, is going to have to scratch its head on quality however. Part of the 1990s and 2000s boom was I think influenced by the way the fledgling privatised TOCs invested in high-quality trains with interiors which went some way to matching car levels of comfort. Something like a Connex-interior Electrostar was pretty luxurious (I remember getting on one at Ashford for the first time and being very pleasantly surprised by how nice the interior was, despite viewing them with trepidation as they were replacing fine stuff like VEPs). By contrast something like standard class on a 700 doesn’t exactly tip the scales in favour of taking the train where there’s alternative options available).

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Nov 2020 ==



Underground was actually fairly quiet today, more so than yesterday.

Yes, I agree that the railway will need to get back to finding that sweet spot between quality and value. The Connex electrostar interior is still one of the more comfortable modern trains to this day.

 

[trebor79]

If we're going to be stuck with Covid maybe for many years to come, people aren't going to want to travel on even fairly full services, and certainly not to sit next to a stranger for any duration of time. This is going to present a huge challenge to the railways, and one that doesn't seem to have any obvious solution. They will probably have to raise fares radically to compensate for the reduction in passenger numbers.

Wouldn't bother me in the slightest.
If there's some ongoing expectation of ridiculously low passenger density then honestly it's time to just close the entire network. There's no point having a mass transit system that can't be used by masses!

 

[DB]

Wouldn't bother me in the slightest.
If there's some ongoing expectation of ridiculously low passenger density then honestly it's time to just close the entire network. There's no point having a mass transit system that can't be used by masses!

Quite. People will just have to get used to it.

I think all these predictions of long term change are much exaggerated. There will probably be some increase in home working in some industries, but nowhere near as much as some are predicting.

 

[trebor79]

Quite. People will just have to get used to it.

I think all these predictions of long term change are much exaggerated. There will probably be some increase in home working in some industries, but nowhere near as much as some are predicting.

I think the wheels are starting to come off the homeworking fad. Individuals and businesses are realising it's not awesome after all. It's all very well with established teams, but even then there is a loss of spontaneity and creativity. But it's almost impossible to bring new team members up to speed remotely.
My next door neighbour runs a consultancy. He tends to work form home but most.of his team are back in the office and he tells me the office building (shared with other businesses) was just as busy on Thursday and Friday as before.
A friend of mine from university co-founded a tax insurance brokerage. They employed a new person over the summer and started to go back in to the office in the Lloyds building to on board him, even though they all knew him from a common previous employer. His rabbit hutch flat in central London wasn't really suitable, and they just didn't feel it was right to leave him to work it out for himself.

That's 2 small examples. No doubt some companies will bet the farm on home working. They'll save money in the short term, but I think they'll find themselves overtaken by companies that maintain more traditional arrangements. Office based teams can collaborate in a much more natural and fun way and those organisations will prove more innovative and competitive.
I was home working for a year before covid, and it was OK. I got out for meetings 2 or 3 times a week on average. Since mid-March I've been out twice to meetings and detest being sat in my house all day every day. I'm not productive without being round other people and don't feel inspired. It all just feels rather ersatz. If someone offered me a job, with the catch that o have to go into an office 5 days a week, I'd snap their hand off.
I'm in a nice spot in the countryside. Christ knows what it's like.for people in flats and small houses.

 

[Jamesrob637]

For anyone that has travelled on the trains this weekend, what have the passenger loadings been like?

From a few pictures I’ve seen, everywhere looks completely dead.

Don't forget that we have a completely separate thread dedicated to train loadings entitled "How busy have your trains been?"

 

[philosopher]

The Guardian are reporting the findings of a RAC poll saying that people now regard a car as more essential than before the pandemic and that most would not use their car less even if better public transport was available.

Covid set back attitudes to public transport by two decades, says RAC

Most Britons see their car as more important now and would not choose greener alternative

www.theguardian.com

The pandemic has put back attitudes to driving versus public transport by two decades, with almost two-thirds of UK car owners now considering their vehicle essential, research has found.

A clear majority would now refuse to switch to a greener alternative even if better trains or buses were available, according to the RAC. The research for its annual Report on Motoring found reluctance to use public transport was now at its highest for 18 years.

Compared with 2019, significantly more young drivers, and those living in the capital – around 65% of each – regard their vehicle as essential.

Although 50% reported actually using their car less overall this year, with 33% of the 3,000 respondents currently working from home, more than half, some 57%, perceived access to a car as more important now than before the coronavirus pandemic.

While 54% said safety was a consideration, an increasing number now deemed a car necessary to shop or visit friends. Meanwhile, only 43% agreed they would use their cars less if there was better public transport, a sharp fall from 57% in 2019, and the lowest figure since 2002.

If this poll is correct, then it sounds like public transport operators will have a hard time getting people back onto public transport.

 

[Richard Scott]

The Guardian are reporting the findings of a RAC poll saying that people now regard a car as more essential than before the pandemic and that most would not use their car less even if better public transport was available.

Covid set back attitudes to public transport by two decades, says RAC

Most Britons see their car as more important now and would not choose greener alternative

www.theguardian.com

If this poll is correct, then it sounds like public transport operators will have a hard time getting people back onto public transport.

Meaning traffic and hence pollution and accidents will increase leading to more deaths. What an achievement.

 

[trebor79]

If this poll is correct, then it sounds like public transport operators will have a hard time getting people back onto public transport.

Traffic congestion will be a persuader.

 

[yorksrob]

Indeed. There's only room for so many little tin boxes on the roads.

 

[telstarbox]

Anecdotally I have two colleagues (outside London) who've switched from public transport to driving to work, because their trains are crowded and there is very little road congestion at the moment. There would be a tipping point where it won't work if everyone does that though.

 

[greyman42]

For anyone that has travelled on the trains this weekend, what have the passenger loadings been like?

From a few pictures I’ve seen, everywhere looks completely dead.

York was reasonably busy at the weekend with what looked like day-trippers. The car parks were quite full so i think most will of travelled by car. The fact that the pubs were shut would make travel by car a more attractive prospect as people won't be having a drink, along with people being concerned about being asked why they were travelling.

 

[bramling]

Anecdotally I have two colleagues (outside London) who've switched from public transport to driving to work, because their trains are crowded and there is very little road congestion at the moment. There would be a tipping point where it won't work if everyone does that though.

Personally I'm reducing rail travel primarily due to masks. I'm not complying, however I have to be in the right mood to be bothered to play the "stare out the vigilante" game. That wasn't today as I woke up tired, so car it was.