can public transport ever recover from COVID-19

[birchesgreen]

Does wearing face masks put people off leisure travel? I

Not really, i got used to it pretty quickly.

 

[HSTEd]

Well it does for me.

 

[bramling]

Not really, i got used to it pretty quickly.

Totally puts me off. I’m not wearing a mask for the (relatively small number of work-related) journeys I’ve been doing, which hasn’t been an issue, however having read some of the stories on here about spiteful PAs from guards I can’t be bothered with discretionary rail trips.

To be honest I’m actually finding myself increasingly persuaded by the notion of DOO, which isn’t something I ever expected to say.

 

[Ianno87]

Does waring face masks put people off leisure travel? I haven't travelled with my family because there's no way my children would wear one and I'm uncomfortable in it too. We used to ravel by train a lot, now it's better to travel by car.

I don't think it's a major factor.

The drop off in demand is more down to absence of reasons to travel (e.g. reduced leisure activities, restrictions on friends/family gatherings, etc).

Children under 11 are exempt anyway.

 

[Dave91131]

Does waring face masks put people off leisure travel? I haven't travelled with my family because there's no way my children would wear one and I'm uncomfortable in it too. We used to ravel by train a lot, now it's better to travel by car.

100% yes.

 

[Peter Sarf]

I have to wear a face mask all day at work. Sometimes I get out of breath when doing something physical. For me it is not much of a problem on public transport as I am not exerting myself there. I am not currently making many trips on public transport however as not many are necessary. I see it as a courtesy to others to avoid spreading what I might have to other people.

 

[philosopher]

I don't think it's a major factor.

The drop off in demand is more down to absence of reasons to travel (e.g. reduced leisure activities, restrictions on friends/family gatherings, etc).

Children under 11 are exempt anyway.

The lack of sporting crowds and music festivals I imagine must have a big impact on passenger numbers, particularly on weekend.

 

[Bikeman78]

I think it does, it makes journeys very uncomfortable! The government, on the other hand, think they have the opposite effect and give people “confidence” so there will be higher numbers travelling (which I think is nonsense)

The people wedging onto trains going to Barry Island clearly weren't bothered about the lack of masks. I think short and medium distance journeys will be okay but the railway will struggle to win back longer distance passengers whilst masks are mandatory.

 

[Richard Scott]

Does waring face masks put people off leisure travel? I haven't travelled with my family because there's no way my children would wear one and I'm uncomfortable in it too. We used to ravel by train a lot, now it's better to travel by car.

Certainly doesn't encourage me, went on a train for an hour last week and that was long enough. Couldn't do more than that. Hardly done any leisure travel by train in past few months. Normally would travel frequently.

 

[trebor79]

It does put me off. I've used the train a few times recently, only to go to Norwich, not long distance. There's no way I could put up with it for now than about 30 minutes.

 

[Non Multi]

It's not just having to wear a covering on the train, but also at the venues that you're heading to. I'm not going to put up with one for hours on end for what's supposed to be a 'leisure activity'. It can all wait until next year.

 

[trebor79]

I do find I am using the train more for shorter journeys. I'm concerned that at some point there will be swingeing cuts to services, particularly the more local and rural lines, so feel compelled to do my bit and contribute money to the farebox whenever I can. And my car is misfiring at the moment so that's another excuse to take the train when possible.

 

[squizzler]

And my car is misfiring at the moment so that's another excuse to take the train when possible.

Presumably the car could be sold to somebody who is desperate to avoid using mass transport at a vastly inflated price! If somebody is going to make money from the hysteria over taking the train, it might as well be those who are more sanguine about doing so.

 

[kylemore]

Does waring face masks put people off leisure travel? I haven't travelled with my family because there's no way my children would wear one and I'm uncomfortable in it too. We used to ravel by train a lot, now it's better to travel by car.

Yes.

I have made one leisure related rail journey since March and that of only 35min duration each way. I love the West Highland but there is no way I'm sitting for 3 hours or more with a mask on, plus with the prospect of being banned from enjoying a wee dram of malt whilst viewing the scenery, then the experience becomes miserable.

If the line's existence is put at risk then it won't be my fault, it'll be the fault of the incompetents coming up with these policies.

 

[DB]

Totally puts me off. I’m not wearing a mask for the (relatively small number of work-related) journeys I’ve been doing, which hasn’t been an issue, however having read some of the stories on here about spiteful PAs from guards I can’t be bothered with discretionary rail trips.

To be honest I’m actually finding myself increasingly persuaded by the notion of DOO, which isn’t something I ever expected to say.

Certainly put me off, and I didn't use them for months (I am mask-exempt, but simply didn't want the hassle). After the latest lockdown announcement I decided I'd had enough of being forced out, and used them on Sunday (I needed to travel for work, and had put it off too long). I will need to travel for work again in the next few weeks, probably a number of times, and will do so. Might also use them to go out walking somewhere, which is also allowed.

I don't like the whole hostile atmosphere which the masks create - I do have a sunflower lanyard to avoid some of the hassle, but it's ridiculous that this is required. I joined in a discussion on the train back on Sunday, where the guard asked a woman sitting nearby without a mask whether she had one, then requested proof when she said she was exempt. She knew the rules and quoted them at him, and I backed her - the guard backed down, but said it was company policy to ask. This sort of behaviour will definitely be putting off some people who are exempt.

 

[greyman42]

I don't like the whole hostile atmosphere which the masks create - I do have a sunflower lanyard to avoid some of the hassle, but it's ridiculous that this is required. I joined in a discussion on the train back on Sunday, where the guard asked a woman sitting nearby without a mask whether she had one, then requested proof when she said she was exempt. She knew the rules and quoted them at him, and I backed her - the guard backed down, but said it was company policy to ask. This sort of behaviour will definitely be putting off some people who are exempt.

Which company was this?

 

[DB]

Which company was this?

Northern

 

[david1212]

It's not just having to wear a covering on the train, but also at the venues that you're heading to. I'm not going to put up with one for hours on end for what's supposed to be a 'leisure activity'. It can all wait until next year.

I've posted before that this plus having either book ahead or risk finding a pub or restaurant with capacity put me off both day trips and a holiday. A work colleague and his partner took a UK holiday at the end of September having moved the dates from earlier in the year. While a break they said it was rather different and restrictive to the point of coming home a day early.

The earliest I can now see me even considering a day trip is Easter.


For rail now the traditional peak has gone from 3rd December to encourage travel and spread loadings perhaps setting all fares to a maximum of the walk on off peak fare initially until April would be sensible.

 

[trebor79]

Editorial in the latest Railway Magazine suggesting the axe is hanging over many services if loadings don't begin to recover in the next 6 months. Suggests some lines may even be mothballed completely.

 

[DB]

Editorial in the latest Railway Magazine suggesting the axe is hanging over many services if loadings don't begin to recover in the next 6 months. Suggests some lines may even be mothballed completely.

Well, they certainly won't recover while the government continues to enact restrictions designed to stop people from travelling!

 

[yorksrob]

Editorial in the latest Railway Magazine suggesting the axe is hanging over many services if loadings don't begin to recover in the next 6 months. Suggests some lines may even be mothballed completely.

It will be interesting to see whether the axe actually falls on lines that haven't recovered, or whether the old predjudices come to the fore.

For example, the Whitby branch seems the most like pre-lockdown levels of all services I've been on, so if that is threatened, we will know that they're not judging routes on their recovery.

 

[squizzler]

It will be interesting to see whether the axe actually falls on lines that haven't recovered, or whether the old predjudices come to the fore.

For example, the Whitby branch seems the most like pre-lockdown levels of all services I've been on, so if that is threatened, we will know that they're not judging routes on their recovery.

If peak services are rationalised due to lack of commuter demand, minor routes may get a more practical regular interval service as rolling stock from elsewhere becomes available.

 

[yorksrob]

If peak services are rationalised due to lack of commuter demand, minor routes may get a more practical regular interval service as rolling stock from elsewhere becomes available.

In a sensible world, that woud happen. I just don't trust decisions to be made on that basis.

 

[kylemore]

Editorial in the latest Railway Magazine suggesting the axe is hanging over many services if loadings don't begin to recover in the next 6 months. Suggests some lines may even be mothballed completely.

Hopefully the economies that are required can be made by temporarily cutting capacity rather than mothballing entire lines.

For instance my station in Kilmarnock enjoys a half hourly service to Glasgow which could be reduced to hourly - especially if they ran as four cars.

However it would help if the management refrained from digging their own graves - the attitude should be "what is the absolute minimum compliance with this nonsense that is required to keep operating?" and apply that and zero beyond that.

 

[The Ham]

It will be interesting to see whether the axe actually falls on lines that haven't recovered, or whether the old predjudices come to the fore.

For example, the Whitby branch seems the most like pre-lockdown levels of all services I've been on, so if that is threatened, we will know that they're not judging routes on their recovery.

Given that the big impact on passenger numbers is likely to be London bound commuters I'm not sure how that's going result in justifying the closure of branch lines which could be back to 2015 to 2017 levels of use rather rapidly.

 

[yorksrob]

Given that the big impact on passenger numbers is likely to be London bound commuters I'm not sure how that's going result in justifying the closure of branch lines which could be back to 2015 to 2017 levels of use rather rapidly.

I certainly hope that that is the case. But given the article is apparently mentioning "axeing" services, it does cause some worry. Even if a london commuter route did decline in passenger usage substantially, I can't imagine any such services would come close to being axed, which leads me to wonder where such an axe might fall !

 

[trebor79]

Given that the big impact on passenger numbers is likely to be London bound commuters I'm not sure how that's going result in justifying the closure of branch lines which could be back to 2015 to 2017 levels of use rather rapidly.

Perhaps because the branch line might be loss-making (still) and the commuter line not so loss making, even with reduced demand?
There's really no telling at this stage how it might be done. For example, it might be that overall subsidy has to be returned to pre-pandemic levels (or some other arbitrary target). There would be a number of ways of doing that:

• Axing the most unprofitable routes until you achieve that aim
• Start with a desktop exercise of axing everything, then reinstate things until the subsidy level is reached, this might be prioritised in a number of ways:
  • Most profitable (or least unprofitable)
  • Most socially useful
  • Options that will remove most car journeys
• Do something like a Serpell and decide trains are for long distance intercity (and London-centric intercity at that) and commuting in a few large conurbations and close everything else.

Overlaid on this are things like freight routes. For example the route out of Felixstowe to the Midlands is strategically important. So if the physical railway needs to remain in place, you might as well run a passenger service along it too, even in a Serpell-style world.

Who knows at this stage. But everyone in the industry should be concerned (and in every other publically-funded institution for that matter) - there is going to have to be a belt-tightening exercise in this country which is going to make austerity look like a picnic.

 

[greyman42]

Hopefully the economies that are required can be made by temporarily cutting capacity rather than mothballing entire lines.

I think it will be difficult to make meaningful economies without making staff redundant unless the furlough scheme covers it?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Nov 2020 ==

However it would help if the management refrained from digging their own graves - the attitude should be "what is the absolute minimum compliance with this nonsense that is required to keep operating?" and apply that and zero beyond that.

I agree. Perhaps they could look at how the management at airline companies are trying to survive.

 

[The Ham]

Perhaps because the branch line might be loss-making (still) and the commuter line not so loss making, even with reduced demand?
There's really no telling at this stage how it might be done. For example, it might be that overall subsidy has to be returned to pre-pandemic levels (or some other arbitrary target). There would be a number of ways of doing that:

• Axing the most unprofitable routes until you achieve that aim
• Start with a desktop exercise of axing everything, then reinstate things until the subsidy level is reached, this might be prioritised in a number of ways:
  • Most profitable (or least unprofitable)
  • Most socially useful
  • Options that will remove most car journeys
• Do something like a Serpell and decide trains are for long distance intercity (and London-centric intercity at that) and commuting in a few large conurbations and close everything else.

Overlaid on this are things like freight routes. For example the route out of Felixstowe to the Midlands is strategically important. So if the physical railway needs to remain in place, you might as well run a passenger service along it too, even in a Serpell-style world.

Who knows at this stage. But everyone in the industry should be concerned (and in every other publically-funded institution for that matter) - there is going to have to be a belt-tightening exercise in this country which is going to make austerity look like a picnic.

If we're going to work on a basis of pre Covid-19 levels of subsidy then which subsidy are we talking about, the day to day subsidy (i.e. not including enhancements) or the total subsidy (i.e. including enhancement finding)?

As each gives a very different answer, and within each year over the last decade the day to day subsidy changes significantly.

Of course it could be entirely possible that cuts to frequencies and train lengths are reduced only for them to be reversed within 5 years.

However I'll come back to the point that I keep highlighting, that a 20% fall would only result in a rolling back of passenger numbers seen in 2012.

Whilst there's been some improvements since then few would find that level of service too bad compared to 2019.

 

[route101]

Got used to wearing a mask, have no problems going away on train if i want to.