Lockdown in England from Thursday 5 November until Wednesday 2 December

[43066]

I presume it’s about reducing the number of interactions between different households.

There is a twisted logic to the notion that to reduce spread you have to choose from a list of things, and if you accept that some things are priorities *not* to close (eg schools and essential workplaces being the two most obvious), then it simply leaves other things more exposed.

Where this falls down is of course the reality that people can simply meet in houses instead, which I suspect is what’s happening, and has probably been happening since the spring, and a Hancock fisty-tantrum isn’t going to stop it.

It depends on the list you’re looking at.

The inconvenient reality is that the “vector” of infection hasn’t been people from different households meeting in pubs and restaurants over the summer. It has been people going back to work and therefore meeting for extended periods in indoor settings, education going back, and the onset of autumn.

Closing pubs and other hospitality at 10pm very blatantly made the “indoor” vector worse, as people have left the pub at 10pm and then gone to each others’ houses to continue drinking in a non socially distanced setting.

If the objective is really to reduce infections - surely we should be closing down education? But no, that’s politically unpalatable, so the government is once again scapegoating the industry that has been hit the hardest by this - and has spent a fortune on PPE - only to be shut down again now.

(my view is *absolutely not* that education should be closed down - but I think the government is being inconsistent in their stated approach)

Not wishing to drag this thread off topic, but I firmly disagree with you there. Sunak might be the only capable member of the current government, I think he's done a cracking good job of managing the financial side of this crisis, without any experience.

Those of us who voted for this government were trying to avoid John McDonnel taking a wrecking ball to the economy. We have wound up with a Conservative chancellor who has basically done a full Hiroshima-nuclear number on it, and foxtroted it back into the dark ages!

The financial fall-out from which will be felt for generations.

 

[yorkie]

Yes that makes you a very naughty boy, and I applaud you for it!

For my part I went out to buy a bottle of decent Malbec as all I had in was one bottle of corner-shop-special Merlot that I bought the other week on my way home from the pub (already leathered
I hasten to add). I didn’t drink it then so I certainly wasn’t going to drink it on a school night....

Rest assured alcoholic drinks are deemed essential.

I didn't get a reply regarding my earlier question about shoes but it sounds like people who need shoes could struggle; does anyone know what options a parent would have for obtaining shoes for their child during the lockdown? It would be ridiculous if the only option was to order online and hope the size fits. The wealthier parents who may support lockdowns can afford multiple shoes for all occasions for their children but this is far from the case for many parents.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Nov 2020 ==

I'm glad that you had lots of fun, and I wish all of us were able to go out and have fun. However, I do think it is a little irresponsible of twenty of you to go out - the rule of two is crazy, but twenty is really pushing your luck.

Being Uni students, I assume they are from the same 'household'/'bubble'. If they are outdoors the risk of transmission is miniscule, and it sounds like most Uni students have either had it or are going to get it soon anyway. The majority are asymptomatic and a colleague told me most of her daughter's friends have had it and her daughter's rhinovirus infection was far worse than Sars-Cov-2.

 

[hst43102]

The financial fall-out from which will be felt for generations.

Of course, but due to the amount of pressure he has been facing over this and that needing extra funds, I think he has managed it relatively well. The loans from WW2 are still being paid off, but it only took the economy 5-10 years to recover from the war. It also has to be remembered that the entire world is going to experience some hard times after this is cleared up.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Nov 2020 ==

Being Uni students, I assume they are from the same 'household'/'bubble'. If they are outdoors the risk of transmission is miniscule, and it sounds like most Uni students have either had it or are going to get it soon anyway.

I'm a uni student. There's four others in my household, and I think the maximum in any household/bubble at my uni is 10. I was looking up the statistics earlier today, and at my university (Newcastle), around 5% of students have tested positive so far. I think the media has blown the university outbreak far out of proportion - they are trying to find a group to blame the virus on. I'm desperately trying to follow the rules myself, but it really has an adverse impact on your mental health. Still, I don't know any other way around it at the moment.

 

[43066]

Of course, but due to the amount of pressure he has been facing over this and that needing extra funds, I think he has managed it relatively well. The loans from WW2 are still being paid off, but it only took the economy 5-10 years to recover from the war. It also has to be remembered that the entire world is going to experience some hard times after this is cleared up.

WW1 was only paid off in the last few years, I believe?! I’d rather not have another load of debts incurred that take a century to pay off, thanks.

I realise I’m in a minority on this website as a Tory voter, but I come from a long line of them. Rest assured this is NOT the kind of thing we are voting for when we vote Conservative. We don’t want taxes to increase, and we certainly don’t want property prices to drop because the economy has been banjaxed...

Boris (and Sunak) would do well to remember that.

 

[hst43102]

I realise I’m in a minority on this website as a Tory voter, but I come from a long line of them. Rest assured this is NOT the kind of thing we are voting for when we vote Conservative. We don’t want taxes to increase, and we certainly don’t want property prices to drop because the economy has been banjaxed...

I voted Conservative in my only election so far - last year's one - because I trusted them to do a good job of the economy and Brexit, and I'd like to keep a good chunk of my future earnings rather than paying >50% in tax. I think that Boris and Cummings have messed up just about everything, but - as I said in my earlier post - Sunak seems to be the only one in government with some sense in him. I do think that the previous chancellor - Javid - would have done a much better job, but he fell out with Boris, and for good reason too.
If there was another election any time soon, I would be seriously tempted to vote for another party.

 

[Chester1]

The money is being borrowed from the Bank of England (which created it out of nothing). We won't be paying it back for a generation because the debt is owed by one part of the government to another part. Printing money (£290bn + £150bn announced today) would normally cause higher inflation but the affect is limited by almost every major economy doing it too. It will still have damaging effects but they will become apparent in short and medium term. Let's not pretend it is like debt from the world wars.

 

[43066]

I voted Conservative in my only election so far - last year's one - because I trusted them to do a good job of the economy and Brexit, and I'd like to keep a good chunk of my future earnings rather than paying >50% in tax. I think that Boris and Cummings have messed up just about everything, but - as I said in my earlier post - Sunak seems to be the only one in government with some sense in him. I do think that the previous chancellor - Javid - would have done a much better job, but he fell out with Boris, and for good reason too.
If there was another election any time soon, I would be seriously tempted to vote for another party.

I was preaching to the converted in my last post.

I’ll be honest, I expected Johnson to take much better ownership of being leader, with the strong Brexit mandate he was awarded last year. But he simply failed to step up to the plate. Decent management of the economy is the minimum you’d expect from any Tory government. Then Covid came along. What a crushing, diabolical disappointment this government has been, in all possible respects, in relation to the pandemic.

I don’t dislike Sunak, I’m disappointed that he backed down on the furlough point in relation to this latest lockdown. It would be far better if had it been cut dead. I suspect the odious Cummings threatened to take him outside and kneecap him for political reasons.

I’m afraid we need a good dose of Thatcherite common sense in this country: and a boot up the jacksey for many! The government won’t pay peoples’ wages long term, so it’s time to get back to work, or end up destitute.

 

[bramling]

Not wishing to drag this thread off topic, but I firmly disagree with you there. Sunak might be the only capable member of the current government, I think he's done a cracking good job of managing the financial side of this crisis, without any experience.

Depends on one's perspective, I suppose. I am *very* uneasy about hundreds of billions being spent, as quite simply where is this coming from, and how is it going to be repaid? To be fair to Sunak, it seems he has been put in this position as a consequence of decisions made by others, however I'm uneasy about the way he's promoting himself. Also whichever way one looks at it, Eat Out To Help Out was clearly a mistake.

 

[43066]

The money is being borrowed from the Bank of England (which created it out of nothing)

Money is never created out of nothing. There’s a good reason why we aren’t all allowed to print bank notes out in our homes.

Think, for a moment, about why that might be. If you or I could print unlimited £5 notes out, how quickly would something in a shop priced at £5 become worthless?

 

[Chester1]

Depends on one's perspective, I suppose. I am *very* uneasy about hundreds of billions being spent, as quite simply where is this coming from, and how is it going to be repaid? To be fair to Sunak, it seems he has been put in this position as a consequence of decisions made by others, however I'm uneasy about the way he's promoting himself. Also whichever way one looks at it, Eat Out To Help Out was clearly a mistake.

I answered you question of were it is coming from: the Bank of England printed it electronically. £290bn so far and another £150bn announced today (quantitative easing). It more or less matches the government spending deficit. It keep the illusion that the Bank of England is not directly funding spending it only buys off the secondary (re sale) bond market but it might as well directly give the money to the government. The government debt owed to private organisations and individuals is almost at the same level as at the start of the crisis. Just like the £375bn printed during the crash, the £440bn printed to cover the pandemic will cause side effects but its not as bad as actually borrowing £440bn.

Money is never created out of nothing. There’s a good reason why we aren’t all allowed to print bank notes out in our homes.

Think, for a moment, about why that might be. If you or I could print unlimited £5 notes out, how quickly would something in a shop priced at £5 become worthless?

The Bank of England created £375bn during the crash, £60bn in 2016 and £290bn this year by inputting numbers onto a computer. I am well aware that printing money causes inflation from previous historic examples. This time because quantitative easing is happening at a massive rate across the world the inflationary effects are largely cancelling each other out. The £290bn created this year has not resulted in high inflation. It will filter through to some extent at some point and its not a magic money tree but its also nothing like real debt. At the end of this the UK will have the highest national debt relative to GDP since the 1950s but at least £875bn of it will effectively be owed to itself!

 

[plugwash]

I suspect the inflationary effects are also less than they would normally be because people aren't spending as much as they normally would, both because they are worried about the future and because many of the things they would normally spend money on are currently forbidden or discouraged.

 

[DelayRepay]

I didn't get a reply regarding my earlier question about shoes but it sounds like people who need shoes could struggle; does anyone know what options a parent would have for obtaining shoes for their child during the lockdown? It would be ridiculous if the only option was to order online and hope the size fits. The wealthier parents who may support lockdowns can afford multiple shoes for all occasions for their children but this is far from the case for many parents.

This is not ideal but the best option might be to try a supermarket? I have read that some M&S stores will be keeping their clothing departments open (on the basis that they are an essential food retailer, and essential retailers that are open are allowed to sell non essential goods). Worth checking before making a special journey but hopefully there are some options.

I hope you manage to sort something out.

 

[Mag_seven]

I have read that some M&S stores will be keeping their clothing departments open (on the basis that they are an essential food retailer, and essential retailers that are open are allowed to sell non essential goods).

And that to me sums up how ludicrous and divisive the whole thing is - small independent shoe retailers have to close whilst the big boys take all their business during "lockdown". Maybe some of those small shoe shops should consider selling tins of beans etc.

 

[Hadders]

I didn't get a reply regarding my earlier question about shoes but it sounds like people who need shoes could struggle; does anyone know what options a parent would have for obtaining shoes for their child during the lockdown? It would be ridiculous if the only option was to order online and hope the size fits. The wealthier parents who may support lockdowns can afford multiple shoes for all occasions for their children but this is far from the case for many parents.

There are no restrictions in England on the goods supermarkets can sell so a supermarket with a clothing department is where I'd head to for an emergency pair of shoes.

 

[35B]

Sorry, I don’t follow.

If outdoor/hospitality businesses aren’t spreaders of the virus (as you seem to have acknowledged), surely it’s illogical to close those businesses down?

The point of the policy (we can only assume) isn’t just to be “logical on its own terms”, and close a bunch of similar businesses down, it’s to reduce the spread of the virus.

I made no comment on the merits of the policy in terms of its objective. I did say that crafting the regulations so that they are consistent about the nature of businesses that may open is entirely logical. Whether we agree with the policy, or with its chosen implementation, does not affect whether the regulations are logically consistent.

 

[Crossover]

BBC running an article today regarding infections "may be stabilising"

UK coronavirus infections may be 'stabilising'

Although the number of new cases continues to rise, the growth rate is slowing, latest data show.

www.bbc.co.uk

UK coronavirus infections may be 'stabilising'
The increase in coronavirus infections appears to be slowing around the UK, latest data from the Office for National Statistics show.
Although the number of people with Covid continues to rise, the growth is levelling off.
In the week to 30 October, ONS says new daily infections in England stabilised at around 50,000.
That means around one person in every 90 in England has Covid. In Wales and Scotland the figure is slightly lower.
There, one in 110 people are testing positive for the virus.

Of course, the lockdown, at little over a day old, will have had nothing to do with this reduction

 

[AM9]

BBC running an article today regarding infections "may be stabilising"

UK coronavirus infections may be 'stabilising'

Although the number of new cases continues to rise, the growth rate is slowing, latest data show.

www.bbc.co.uk

Of course, the lockdown, at little over a day old, will have had nothing to do with this reduction

But the tier three restrictions in the north will have.

 

[yorksrob]

But the tier three restrictions in the north will have.

I'd like to see the evidence of that.

If anything, the tier 2 restrictions officially stopped households mixing indoors. My money would be on those having had an effect, if anything.

 

[Yew]

But the tier three restrictions in the north will have.

Questionably so

 

[Domh245]

Questionably so

Not really. North West estimated infections plateaued around the 20th, so based on the average 5 day difference from infection to symptoms that'd put peak infection at around the 15th, more or less the time that the tier system started to come into effect


snipped from ONS report

 

[yorksrob]

Not really. North West estimated infections plateaued around the 20th, so based on the average 5 day difference from infection to symptoms that'd put peak infection at around the 15th, more or less the time that the tier system started to come into effect

View attachment 85512
snipped from ONS report

Didn't most of the North West begin in tier 2, rather than tier 3 ? (As did bits of Y&H, which also plateaud at the same time).

 

[Dent]

Not really. North West estimated infections plateaued around the 20th, so based on the average 5 day difference from infection to symptoms that'd put peak infection at around the 15th, more or less the time that the tier system started to come into effect

View attachment 85512
snipped from ONS report

Correlation does not prove causation.

 

[DelayRepay]

And that to me sums up how ludicrous and divisive the whole thing is - small independent shoe retailers have to close whilst the big boys take all their business during "lockdown". Maybe some of those small shoe shops should consider selling tins of beans etc.

I agree, and the small shoe shops have my sympathy. I only mentioned it in the hope that it helps the child that Yorkie knows get some new shoes.

 

[DB]

Correlation does not prove causation.

But if the rate was already reducing before the measures had time to have any effect then they cannot be the cause.

 

[Domh245]

Correlation does not prove causation.

No but it does seem to me that there is almost certainly some sort of effect that the implementation of the tier system had. The number of positives won't just start falling like that without some sort of change, especially as we're not near any sort of herd immunity threshold either breaking transmission chains

 

[Crossover]

But the tier three restrictions in the north will have.

The Tier 3 restrictions MAY have. The problem with the ever and rapid changes to the approach means its unlikely anyone will be able to pinpoint what changes have had a meaningful effect!

 

[jtuk]

The Tier 3 restrictions MAY have. The problem with the ever and rapid changes to the approach means its unlikely anyone will be able to pinpoint what changes have had a meaningful effect!

Given Nottingham was already on the way down before tiers came into place, let alone before it went from tier 2 to 3, I'm just going to assume it's the virus naturally tailing off, just like the first time around

 

[MikeWM]

Didn't most of the North West begin in tier 2, rather than tier 3 ? (As did bits of Y&H, which also plateaud at the same time).

Yes, only Liverpool went into Tier 3 to begin with. And positive tests there started to fall well *before* they went into Tier 3.

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1323320306627448832

The graph there shows that cases peaked around October 7th, a week before Tier 3 came into effect.

 

[yorksrob]

Yes, only Liverpool went into Tier 3 to begin with. And positive tests there started to fall well *before* they went into Tier 3.

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1323320306627448832

The graph there shows that cases peaked around October 7th, a week before Tier 3 came into effect.

Thanks for the confirmation !

 

[BackOnTheTrain]

I also thought initially he looked less political and more sensible but his stalling over paying out more furlough for Tier 3 areas did not help in slowing down the transmission rate. That was a bad call over 10's millions and now we are in for 10-20B or more.

Also they still don't get that unless your in a well paid salaried job with full sick pay or the ability to wfh its a tough call to self isolate. Had they incentivised the poorer or self employed people to isolate with fair amounts of cash they would have reduced transmission rates and potentially avoided the large costs of lockdown let alone the long run economic damage this is doing.

They quite simply don’t care about the poor/disabled etc. If they did they would have increased ESA by £20/week when they increased UC by £20/week because of COVID-19.

And the fact that there’s been a petition about increasing ESA to match UC open for months and only 73 people have bothered to sign it speaks volumes about the general population not caring too. (You can’t claim ESA and UC, it’s one or the other, and it’s not advisable to close an ESA claim and open a UC claim because then you have to go through the whole process all over again.)

The latest “clinically extremely vulnerable” advice encourages ESA claims too if you can’t work from home.

The petition is below if you want to sign it — I have, and have also emailed my MP. It’s time to stick up for those who most need the help, many of whom will have bigger health issues to be dealing with.

Archived Petition: Extend Covid-19 benefit increases to legacy benefit claimants

Many legacy benefits claimants already live in poverty. Excluding them from Covid financial support unfairly penalises those who may not have access to other support or employment opportunities due to lockdown.

petition.parliament.uk