Lockdown in England from Thursday 5 November until Wednesday 2 December

[AntoniC]

If this is the case then make sure you are on here at least, i'm sure many of us have our inboxes open if you need a chat.

Cheers mate, much appreciated
Reason I will be on my own is because my dad and his wife have bubbled with wife`s sister and brother.
The sister is her brothers primary carer and so his other sister has to be available to care if needed.
It will be a zoom christmas for me (esp as I asked for a webcam of Santa !) and my dad has said I wont go short on food and (non-alchoholic) drinks.

 

[adc82140]

Our Hospital ICU capacity is black and white though,its going to be reached before long.

No it isn't. The hospital will have surge capacity. They can divert major trauma to other hospitals. They can postpone routine surgery. Would it shock you if I said that the bulk of the time ITUs run to pretty much capacity, give or take a bed or two. It would be a national scandal if we didn't, as there would be people sitting needlessly on the waiting lists for surgery.

Edit: Here's a Guardian article from this time last year, stating that the NHS had a winter capacity crisis looming

NHS winter crisis: extra beds created by 52% of UK hospitals

BTS says 48% are still using overflow beds introduced for the same period last year

www.theguardian.com

More than half of hospitals have opened extra beds to help them cope with the NHS winter crisis amid an influx of patients with potentially fatal breathing problems.

Many of the so-called escalation beds are already occupied by people suffering from flu, pneumonia or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbated by the arrival of very cold weather in many parts of the UK.

The British Thoracic Society (BTS), which represents specialist lung doctors and nurses, has found that 52% of UK hospitals have already created extra bed capacity to help them prepare for the imminent surge in winter demand.

Sounds rather famliar doesn't it. Remember the article is dated 2019. Potentially fatal breathing problems. Don't remember a mass panic then.

 

[malc-c]

There is no real way to resolve this quickly...not until the majority have been exposed and naturally built up defenses to it and any variation the virus mutates into. No government will take the stance of just letting life carry on as normal because the hospitals and emergency services were at a level that could cope with what would have been a very high intake of people that could not cope with the infection, so the first lockdown was bound to happen. It was a case of trying to manage the strain on the NHS and other services, a strain caused by decades of cost cuts by successive governments. But it's clear to anyone, after isolation, people will still be infected once the lockdown conditions were relented and people mixed, so with a second (and possibly successive spikes if subsequent lockdowns were put in place) was obvious, so why didn't the government spend the past 6 months stockpiling equipment and supplies so the ICU bed rate matched or exceeded those of Germany or other countries. It may even assist all those being made redundant as jobs making the required equipment and supplies would become available. Then once we have the hospitals, staff, and possibly infrastructure in place, then let everyone get back to work and normality. Hopefully then the services and supplies are in place to deal with the more serious cases. Those with milder symptoms would deal with it the same way as a normal bout of flu.... Yes there will be deaths, but that is a forgone conclusion when events like this happen. The alternative is years of constant in and out of lockdowns, businesses collapsing, and a country that is in debt for decades.

 

[ChrisC]

Well, I'm sorry, it'll have to be allowed. My mother has Power of Attorney and thus needs to visit regularly to do financial affairs etc.

My wife and I have the car and need to take granny out - it's for the benefit of her mental health. She cannot go out unaccompanied and can't walk further than the end of her road. My mother is not fit enough to push her in a wheelchair

It's a risk both my mother and I will have to take. If we get a fine, so be it but granny may not make it until the end of the year...

I understand exactly how you feel.

I have my 85 mother living with me who has dementia. Throughout the last lockdown, for over 12 weeks, I cared for her without any help. As a family we rigidly stuck to all the rules of the restrictions, and my sister and her partner, who live 40 miles away, did not visit us and we didn’t visit them. We did always have an understanding that if I got too stressed and couldn’t cope, they would have my mum over to stay for a few days to give me some respite. It was stressful for me, but with the good weather, living in the country with a nice garden to enjoy, we got through it.

Not exactly legal, because there are 2 of us in each household, since mid June we have now formed a social bubble between the 2 households. Myself and my mother have not been in anyone’s else’s house and neither have my sister and her partner. Since July we have visited each other’s house at least once a week and my mother has gone to stay with them for a few days each month to give me respite. We are doing this to care for a vulnerable person.

We are going to continue to do this and if we have to pay fines then so be it.
Right through March, April, May and June I cared for my mum single handed and did not break any rules. Yet at the same time as I was doing this, my neighbours teenage children were in and out of the house, riding around in cars with friends from other households and having others inside to visit daily.

Was I the fool for putting myself through a very stressful 3 months when others around me were totally ignoring the restrictions. However, I am aware that the majority of people in the country have gone through a very difficult time and most, like me, did stick rigidly to the rules.

 

[Solent&Wessex]

Well, I'm sorry, it'll have to be allowed. My mother has Power of Attorney and thus needs to visit regularly to do financial affairs etc.

My wife and I have the car and need to take granny out - it's for the benefit of her mental health. She cannot go out unaccompanied and can't walk further than the end of her road. My mother is not fit enough to push her in a wheelchair

It's a risk both my mother and I will have to take. If we get a fine, so be it but granny may not make it until the end of the year...

You will be breaking the law unless you can show another exemption applies. The exemption for providing care or assistance to a vulnerable person might cover you.

I think you're correct in your assertion, however I suspect individuals will make their own moral judgement this time around. It will be interesting to observe compliance, rightly or wrongly people seem to have had enough.

Breaking the law it maybe, but in all reality, it will be unenforceable and undetectable. Unless the police are camping outside Granny's house monitoring who is going in one day (and claiming to be in Granny's support bubble) and then spotting that different people (also claiming to be in Granny's support bubble) are coming a different day then no one, apart from perhaps a nosey neighbour, will know.

As a previous post suggests, there is no legal register of support bubbles and no legal requirement as far as I can see, to provide any documentation, evidence, details of living arrangements etc.

If it were large groups of people mixing together, or even two couples or families, then it is fairly obvious it isn't genuine. However, as long as one of the parties live on their own then no one would be any the wiser.

For example - I live alone. Earlier in the year I was in a support bubble with someone. In late August they moved away from my local area and now live about 100 miles away. Since they moved they have been in a Tier 1 area and not subjected to any requirements regarding support bubbles, just the "rule of six". They also live alone in their new home. I live in a Tier 2 area which was subject to local restrictions previously so visiting in houses anywhere in the country has required me to be in a support bubble for some time. I am quite close to this person so was particularly keen to keep in physical contact. Thus, I was visiting them roughly every 2 to 3 weeks since they moved and staying with them for a few nights. This was all perfectly legal and fine as this person was my only support bubble and they were not in a support bubble with anyone else from a Tier 2 or 3 area, and could still apply the rule of 6 to their new friends they were making in their new home in a Tier 1 area.

Now however this friend of mine, like me previously, can only meet inside within a support bubble. Technically it seems I could still travel 100 miles down the country and stay with him for a few nights using the support bubble rules that still exist during this lockdown. It would be fine for me as I have always been in a support bubble with this person. However, as expected, since moving he has made one or two local friends and may - not unreasonably - want to form support bubbles with someone who lives down the road who he can see a couple of times per week rather just seeing me a once every couple of weeks.

Can he form a new support bubble with someone else? Well yes, as a resident of a Tier 1 area where support bubbles for groups up to 6 are not required and as such he was in my support bubble but I wasn't in his as he didn't need one, yes I believe he could.
Can I form a new support bubble with someone else closer to home? Legally, no, as any support bubble you have been in since the 14th September has to stay as it is. If it ceases to be a support bubble you are legally not allowed to form another one.
My friend has lived away since before the 14th September so isn't technically in a support bubble with me, but I am with him.

In reality, as he lives alone and I live alone, if I decided that I was going to visit my parents 15 miles away one weekend (and claim, if questioned, that they were my support bubble) but then visit my friend 100 miles away in the opposite direction the next weekend (and claim, if questioned, that he was my support bubble) then no one apart from me would know.

Like the scenario above, if my friend 100 miles away had his local friend around at his house (or he visited his local friend at his house), but then the next week I visited for a few nights (but my friend did not have his local friend and me both around at the same time) then unless the police were camping outside his house and monitoring who was coming in and out all the time or a nosey neighbour was taking pictures and passing them on to the police, then there would never be any more than 2 people in the house at any one time - my friend plus 1 visitor claiming to be in their support bubble - no one would ever know and the risk of being caught is so tiny it isn't worth worrying about.

 

[507021]

I don't think my mental health will survive another lockdown.

I was supposed to be moving house in a couple of weeks, now it's probably not going to happen until after Christmas.

 

[yorksrob]

Hospitals will be full by christmas

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 2 Nov 2020 ==


Does this include the Nightingale's and private hospitals?

It definitely suggests that the Nightingales should be a stepping stone to more longer term capacity, rather than a temporary fix.

 

[trebor79]

Hospitals will be full by christmas

No they won't, hospital occupancy for covid has already just about peaked in England.
Chart showing England hospital patients, today is first fall since September, and recent days almost flat.

 

[adc82140]

I don't think my mental health will survive another lockdown.

I was supposed to be moving house in a couple of weeks, now it's probably not going to happen until after Christmas.

You can still move house, as announced by the housing secretary on Breakfast telly.

 

[HSTEd]

Our Hospital ICU capacity is black and white though,its going to be reached before long.

It really isn't.
ICU capacity is itself not a single figure.

Given the recent decision not to make mass use of ventilators, an ICU is more characterised by the types of htings that are done there than by specific peices of equipment.

It is not a case of it can fit 100 people in perfect condition of care and then 101 people need it, putting it over capacity and thus everyone dies!
As nominal capacity is exceeded "quality of care" would be expected to drop, but not immediately off a cliff.

Indeed there was even that American trauama doctor pointing out how you can use one ventilator for two patients in an emergency.

 

[tetudo boy]

No.

Kids have already had far too much disruption to their education.

Too bad. The Merseyside Government (My local government) are already in talks of a school lockdown as they think it's too risky for children and teens to go to school. I'm not sure what my opinion is toward's this move is. While yes, I think school students have had quite a long period off-school, Merseyside has one of the highest Covid-19 rates in England, so I'm not sure...

 

[507021]

Too bad. The Merseyside Government (My local government) are already in talks of a school lockdown as they think it's too risky for children and teens to go to school. I'm not sure what my opinion is toward's this move is. While yes, I think school students have had quite a long period off-school, Merseyside has one of the highest Covid-19 rates in England, so I'm not sure...

The LCR combined authority had my support last time, but if this is true, they won't this time.

My eldest daughter's missed enough school already.

 

[35B]

Too bad. The Merseyside Government (My local government) are already in talks of a school lockdown as they think it's too risky for children and teens to go to school. I'm not sure what my opinion is toward's this move is. While yes, I think school students have had quite a long period off-school, Merseyside has one of the highest Covid-19 rates in England, so I'm not sure...

I would like to see them provide the comparative analysis of the impact on those children of not attending school. Preferably stratified by background, so it would be clear just where the impact would be felt.

 

[Class 33]

I was watching the parliament COVID-19 session this afternoon. Peter Bone mentioned "And there is some good news today. I understand that Covid cases are down 5% lower than they were 7 days ago......". But then Johnson replied with "....But the reality is the virus is doubling across the country...."!!!! What the ???!!! Some 2 weeks ago the number of cases were 18,804. And today they are 18,950! These comments about cases are currently doubling every 5 to 7 days(or whatever it is) is absolute nonsense! Cases have definitely stabilised over the past week and actually look like they are going to start falling imminently.

 

[Richard Scott]

Too bad. The Merseyside Government (My local government) are already in talks of a school lockdown as they think it's too risky for children and teens to go to school. I'm not sure what my opinion is toward's this move is. While yes, I think school students have had quite a long period off-school, Merseyside has one of the highest Covid-19 rates in England, so I'm not sure...

As I pointed out in another thread the virus is of less threat to school children than the mental health issues. If people think that's an unlikely outcome I work with teenagers and a number are showing signs of depression and saying how fed up they are with this situation and would rather be in school full time.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Another massive difference is that Germany has significantly more hospital beds per capita than the UK,
especially when it comes to intensive care, so there is a lot more 'headroom' before spikes overwhelm
your healthcare system.

Here are the figures according to Wikipedia:

List of countries by hospital beds - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Clicking on the arrow by the ICI beds column will sort the table accordingly,
revealing that Germany has the second highest ICU capacity in the world
at 38.7 beds per 100,000 inhabitants...

View attachment 85400



...while the UK is towards the nottom of the list with just 6.6 beds/100,000:
View attachment 85401



You can also see why New Zealand felt compelled to follow an elimination strategy, rather than letting it rip!











MARK

Whats even more stark though is our beds/100k are 1/3 those of Germany which is more important currently than ICU beds which seem less of an issue currently.

 

[Baxenden Bank]

Whats even more stark though is our beds/100k are 1/3 those of Germany which is more important currently than ICU beds which seem less of an issue currently.

How are the beds counted? Is it like for like? In this country we disposed of a large number of hospital long-term care beds, the care being provide in granny farms, sorry private care homes, instead. Locally a number of care homes are in former NHS premises. Plus we have a policy of 'care in the home' rather than hospital. Both of these policies could skew the figures. Also, how are care beds accounted for? Local authorities used to have a large capacity (many now closed in favour of bought in care from the private sector). Does Germany have the same NHS / local authority arrangements?

As I discovered when looking at the 'world rail mileages table' on Wikipedia, there is nothing simple in worldwide country by country comparisons. In that case define 'operational' or 'open' rather than technically open but not actually used by a train for decades.

 

[Class 33]

During this afternoon's parliament session there were a lot of MP's asking Johnson who do gyms have to shut during this lockdown, as they are good for mental and physical health. To which Johnson replied with the same answer to all of them, no we can't allow it unfortunately.

Someone has started a government petition to request that gyms should not have to close. It's already got almost half a million signatures. http://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/333869

 

[KevinTurvey]

My suspicion also is that because furlough payments and a lot of the other supports (eg Mortgage holidays and loans etc) were all due to be pulled on Saturday, panic has set in. Thousands of businesses unable to pay their rents, and tens of thousands of families unable to pay their mortgages (and possibly even provide food) just before Christmas reflects extremely badly on the government.

Announcing another lockdown was a quick way to fix this temporarily, by reinstating at the same time all the economic supports that were due to be lost without looking like a U turn, despite the slightly improving figures.

They've kicked the can down the road of course, so we'll face the same, if not worse economic problem in a months time, irrespective of what the figures have or have not done.

 

[TheSel]

How are the beds counted?

Count the wheels, and divide by four.

 

[43096]

Our Hospital ICU capacity is black and white though,its going to be reached before long.

Perhaps rather than going back to the magic money tree repeatedly to fund furlough and assorted other support activities (including trains carrying fresh air), we should have spent a fraction of that on increasing capacity further in the NHS to treat people. Better that than killing the economy and killing people from other causes.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Perhaps rather than going back to the magic money tree repeatedly to fund furlough and assorted other support activities (including trains carrying fresh air), we should have spent a fraction of that on increasing capacity further in the NHS to treat people. Better that than killing the economy and killing people from other causes.

Hindsight, yes if only we had the resources Germany has. Last Covid19 peak they were treating victims sent over from France !.

 

[507021]

You can still move house, as announced by the housing secretary on Breakfast telly.

I must have missed that, thanks very much.

 

[Jimini]

The main problem the Nightingale hospitals have is that they were set up as COVID specific wards / beds. Turns out that most people have COVID in addition to another already existing medical issue that requires bespoke hospital facilities over and above a bed and a ventilator..

 

[Tin Rocket]

Hindsight, yes if only we had the resources Germany has. Last Covid19 peak they were treating victims sent over from France !.

If Germany has plenty of spare capacity I wonder if they would take British patients if push came to shove?

 

[Peter Sarf]

If Germany has plenty of spare capacity I wonder if they would take British patients if push came to shove?

Probably be easier if we were in Europe. But at the right price maybe.

 

[Ianno87]

Probably be easier if we were in Europe. But at the right price maybe.

Sharing a land border is probably the bigger advantage here...

 

[Peter Sarf]

Sharing a land border is probably the bigger advantage here...

Very true. Being an island could we not have kept the damn thing out . Seriously though, I think you would be right in thinking Germany would be most easily disposed to helping out more immediate neighbours.

 

[Chester1]

Very true. Being an island could we not have kept the damn thing out . Seriously though, I think you would be right in thinking Germany would be most easily disposed to helping out more immediate neighbours.

Britain is an island but the UK is not...

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I was watching the parliament COVID-19 session this afternoon. Peter Bone mentioned "And there is some good news today. I understand that Covid cases are down 5% lower than they were 7 days ago......". But then Johnson replied with "....But the reality is the virus is doubling across the country...."!!!! What the ???!!! Some 2 weeks ago the number of cases were 18,804. And today they are 18,950! These comments about cases are currently doubling every 5 to 7 days(or whatever it is) is absolute nonsense! Cases have definitely stabilised over the past week and actually look like they are going to start falling imminently.

What your failing to realise is now they have 500k tests a day they will find the people to make up the numbers so Witty & Vallance are vindicated!!