Lockdown in England from Thursday 5 November until Wednesday 2 December

[yorkie]

I saw a report about a community who believed that eat out to help out cased a spike in cases in their area. There was no evidence to back this assertion up. I suspect that the old issue of multi-generational households would have been more of a factor.

It's nonsense as many countries are seeing an increase. York saw hardly any cases during August, then had a big spike when education reopened, and then went back to "green". Some people love to make up nonsense.

Totally negative comments. We would never have achieved anything with pessimists like you.
We have to tackle and beat this epidemic otherwise we have no future.
You seem to have given up already. RIP

How do you define "beating" an epidemic?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 2 Nov 2020 ==

Quite. I am a primary school governor, and what I hear from the school about the effect of lockdown clearly demonstrates how important it is that all children get their education, not just those whose parents have space and available technology. I see the same from my secondary age children.

I'm glad we agree on something!

 

[Islineclear3_1]

What you have described isn’t allowed. An extended household is fixed in size at two households total, not “any number of households as long as only two meet at any one time”. Each household can only be a member of one extended household. Households cannot flip back and forth between one extended household and another.

Additionally, from Thursday it may not be permissible to stay away from home overnight.

Well, I'm sorry, it'll have to be allowed. My mother has Power of Attorney and thus needs to visit regularly to do financial affairs etc.

My wife and I have the car and need to take granny out - it's for the benefit of her mental health. She cannot go out unaccompanied and can't walk further than the end of her road. My mother is not fit enough to push her in a wheelchair

It's a risk both my mother and I will have to take. If we get a fine, so be it but granny may not make it until the end of the year...

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

So how are you going to convince the families of the elderly you want shielding not to see them? I seem to remember outcry that care homes could not be visited, grandparents could not see their grandchildren. Care home or not many shielders, if they do it properly will not be able to be seen. Do not see the masses buying that one. Then there is all the free childcare this older generation seems to provide, who will be picking that up whilst the young work?

packermac i not advocating they can't see them or that they are forced to isolate but that they are very clear that there is a risk if they do and that if they subsequently get C19 the NHS may have run out of capacity to treat them. This is brutal reality of the situation the elderly are the most vulnerable and they represent the majority of hospitalisations and this is the primary issue that needs to be addressed if we are to manage the consequences virus and have some form of functioning economy.

 

[jtuk]

Here's my 'optimist' view of what can happen with this lockdown and after:

We see R - which was already dropping - back down to ~1 at end of the month.

We're seeing that already in some areas fyi

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

It's quite surprising to me how negative and critical people are on here about the UK policy, even though it's broadly similar to the German policy, which is mostly supported by German residents so far as I can see. Does this forum represent typical attitudes in Britain?

In my view the big difference between Germany, which by most accounts has handled the pandemic well, and the UK is the implementation of policy. We have had a Track & Trace app since June for instance. Implementation doesn't seem to get discussed much here through.

However mediocre some say Test, Track & Isolate is the facts are it has got to nearly million people to tell them to isolate yet the virus continues to grow. Even in areas that have had draconian measures even before the tier system was introduced they still have high levels of virus prevalence. So two things have to be happening either people aren't following the rules or we simply don't understand how the virus is transmitted

So comparing us to Germany who are dealing with the same virus our problem has to be people behaviour ie they don't self isolate for whatever reason and this needs fixing urgently rather than just testing more and more people.

 

[DJH1971]

Looks like I will have to kiss goodbye to what I paid for my advance ticket from Manchester Piccadilly to London on Friday 27th November.

 

[trebor79]

However mediocre some say Test, Track & Isolate is the facts are it has got to nearly million people to tell them to isolate yet the virus continues to grow. Even in areas that have had draconian measures even before the tier system was introduced they still have high levels of virus prevalence. So two things have to be happening either people aren't following the rules or we simply don't understand how the virus is transmitted

It's far too slow. It takes at least 48 hours to get a test result (looking at the governments own figures) and us and everyone I know who has been tested has taken until the fourth day to get a result. Add 2 days for a home testing kit.
By that time, if you're positive and have infected a load of contacts, they've been merrily infecting a load of other people before they are told to isolate nearly a week after the event. So they get tested, 4 to 6 days later the positive result comes in and a whole other batch of people has been obliviously infecting others for nearly a week.
It's just too slow to be effective, regardless of behaviours.

It's like playing whack-amole, but with a 20 second reaction penalty. It just can't possibly work as it stands, it's utterly futile.

 

[43066]

However mediocre some say Test, Track & Isolate is the facts are it has got to nearly million people to tell them to isolate yet the virus continues to grow. Even in areas that have had draconian measures even before the tier system was introduced they still have high levels of virus prevalence. So two things have to be happening either people aren't following the rules or we simply don't understand how the virus is transmitted

To be honest I think test and trace is a red herring. It’s an elimination strategy. Since the virus took hold, we’ve never had case numbers low enough to make it work, and it’s unenforceable unless you have police going round to peoples’ houses to ensure they’re isolating

A lot of people (quite understandably) will never download the app, and will give false contact details etc. to pubs so will never be reachable. Another sizeable chunk will (again quite understandably) be unwilling to isolate simply because they’ve been in the same restaurant as a COVID victim, so will ignore the call if they receive it.

 

[Freightmaster]

In my view the big difference between Germany, which by most accounts has handled the pandemic well, and the UK is the implementation of policy. We have had a Track & Trace app since June for instance. Implementation doesn't seem to get discussed much here through.

Another massive difference is that Germany has significantly more hospital beds per capita than the UK,
especially when it comes to intensive care, so there is a lot more 'headroom' before spikes overwhelm
your healthcare system.

Here are the figures according to Wikipedia:

List of countries by hospital beds - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Clicking on the arrow by the ICI beds column will sort the table accordingly,
revealing that Germany has the second highest ICU capacity in the world
at 38.7 beds per 100,000 inhabitants...





...while the UK is towards the nottom of the list with just 6.6 beds/100,000:




You can also see why New Zealand felt compelled to follow an elimination strategy, rather than letting it rip!











MARK

 

[Trackman]

Looks like I will have to kiss goodbye to what I paid for my advance ticket from Manchester Piccadilly to London on Friday 27th November.

Well, if it's Avanti they are doing RTV's and free amendments if you bought your ticket before the local restrictions, so I'll imagine it'll be the same for the national lockdown. I'd check on the Avanti webpage, but I have read it on their twitter account today.

 

[DJH1971]

Well, if it's Avanti they are doing RTV's and free amendments if you bought your ticket before the local restrictions, so I'll imagine it'll be the same for the national lockdown. I'd check on the Avanti webpage, but I have read it on their twitter account today.

What's is RTV's?

 

[Trackman]

What's is RTV's?

Rail Travel Vouchers
edit: Just checked their website, no mention of national lockdown yet.

If you purchased an Advance ticket to or from an area affected by local restrictions (local COVID alert level High or Very High in England or affected areas in Scotland or Wales) before the change was announced , you may be entitled to a Rail Travel Voucher. The voucher can be used as payment towards a new ticket and is valid for 12 months from the date of issue. The voucher may not be exchanged for cash.

If you purchased an Advance ticket to or from an area affected by local restrictions (local COVID alert level High or Very High in England or affected areas in Scotland and or Wales) before the change was announced, then you can change your ticket to travel on another day without an admin fee.

For both options, you’ll need to make the request before your booked train departs. If the Advance tickets were purchased before restrictions were announced, these offers will be backdated in situations where restrictions are already in place and will apply to future announcements if further restrictions are introduced. Rail Travel Voucher: To request a Rail Travel Voucher for your qualifying Advance ticket, please fill in our Enquiry form, including ‘local lockdown’ as part of your message. Amend your ticket: You can make your request using My Account. If you chose to check out as a guest, or experience any other issues usingMy Account, then please contact our call centre on0345 528 0253.

 

[ainsworth74]

What's is RTV's?

Rail Travel Voucher, a voucher which can be used to buy tickets from a station booking office. Used to be used for delay repay but since that went to cash they've become fairly irrelevant.

 

[packermac]

packermac i not advocating they can't see them or that they are forced to isolate but that they are very clear that there is a risk if they do and that if they subsequently get C19 the NHS may have run out of capacity to treat them. This is brutal reality of the situation the elderly are the most vulnerable and they represent the majority of hospitalisations and this is the primary issue that needs to be addressed if we are to manage the consequences virus and have some form of functioning economy.

Then what you are advocating is not shielding, it is just hoping for less contact and an NHS that is not overwhelmed.
You have not answered the question on health workers having to decide who lives or dies and are they prepared to, and who is going to have the time and money to fight the ambulance chasing law suits or deaths that may have been avoidable down the road. We live in a very litigious society now.

 

[43066]

You have not answered the question on health workers having to decide who lives or dies and are they prepared to

You do realise the NHS makes choices like this on a daily basis even during normal times. How do you think organ donations etc. work? They’re given to the individuals who are likely to benefit the most.

Ambulance chasing is done in relation to cases of medical negligence causing injury/death rather than clinical decisions about how best to allocate treatment.

 

[DustyBin]

They've apparently been ordered, not sure if that means they've been paid for. Given this government's communications "ordered" could mean anything from "paid for and in production now" to a conversation over dinner with a potential vaccine supplier.
I seem to recall some stories in the media that the problems are more around producing enough vials, and sorting out the distribution. Producing the actual vaccine, after it's been developed, is the realatively easy part.

Thanks. I may have got the wrong end of the stick, there was a news report maybe three weeks ago which showed vials going around a line which gave me the impression the vaccine was in full production.

How about we say: “Nobody has asked for this virus, but it represents a negligible risk to the vast majority of healthy working age people who catch it. We cannot continue to wreck our economy, and destroy the future of our country, to save people who are already close to the end of their natural lives.

Therefore it’s now time to ask those who are not elderly or medically vulnerable to return to their normal lives. Those who are in those categories are advised to shield as far as possible until a vaccine is available.”

Seems reasonable enough to me. Asking the elderly and vulnerable to shield makes a lot more sense than locking down the entire country every few months and condemning hundreds of thousands of much younger cancer and heart disease patients to death.

This is the only viable strategy in my opinion, we can't keep locking down the whole country while we wait for a vaccine which may or may not arrive.

 

[island]

Well, I'm sorry, it'll have to be allowed. My mother has Power of Attorney and thus needs to visit regularly to do financial affairs etc.

My wife and I have the car and need to take granny out - it's for the benefit of her mental health. She cannot go out unaccompanied and can't walk further than the end of her road. My mother is not fit enough to push her in a wheelchair

It's a risk both my mother and I will have to take. If we get a fine, so be it but granny may not make it until the end of the year...

You will be breaking the law unless you can show another exemption applies. The exemption for providing care or assistance to a vulnerable person might cover you.

 

[adc82140]

Getting enough people vaccinated, even if a vaccine becomes available in December, by next winter is an extremely tall order.

The way I see it it's not about getting enough people vaccinated to stop the spread, but more protecting those who are likely to end up in hospital. That takes a lot less vaccination. To put it bluntly, I couldn't give a stuff if someone feels rough for a week, and this shouldn't be the aim of vaccinaction. It must be to keep people out of hospital. The aim must be to target the vulnerable.

 

[DustyBin]

You will be breaking the law unless you can show another exemption applies. The exemption for providing care or assistance to a vulnerable person might cover you.

I think you're correct in your assertion, however I suspect individuals will make their own moral judgement this time around. It will be interesting to observe compliance, rightly or wrongly people seem to have had enough.

 

[Tin Rocket]

Hospitals will be full by christmas

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 2 Nov 2020 ==

Another massive difference is that Germany has significantly more hospital beds per capita than the UK,
especially when it comes to intensive care, so there is a lot more 'headroom' before spikes overwhelm
your healthcare system.

Here are the figures according to Wikipedia:

List of countries by hospital beds - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Clicking on the arrow by the ICI beds column will sort the table accordingly,
revealing that Germany has the second highest ICU capacity in the world
at 38.7 beds per 100,000 inhabitants...

View attachment 85400



...while the UK is towards the nottom of the list with just 6.6 beds/100,000:
View attachment 85401



You can also see why New Zealand felt compelled to follow an elimination strategy, rather than letting it rip!











MARK

Does this include the Nightingale's and private hospitals?

 

[adc82140]

Hospitals will be full by christmas

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 2 Nov 2020 ==


Does this include the Nightingale's and private hospitals?

Hospitals are always full in December. One of the ones I work at is at code black pretty much every day in December in a normal year.

 

[Tin Rocket]

Hospitals are always full in December. One of the ones I work at is at code black pretty much every day in December in a normal year.

We can expect a lot of hospitals shutting their doors then when there is no room for admissions.

 

[HSTEd]

We can expect a lot of hospitals shutting their doors then when there is no room for admissions.

It is far more likely that extemporised facilities will be made use of for triage purposes.

Having the Nightingales called "hospitals of death" is not worse PR then people dying in the street outside the hosptals.

Also note we are only in this position because the Government decided to suppress a summer outbreak in favour of a winter one.
This is what the lockdown people did when they ordered the March lockdown, and they should admit to it.

 

[yorkie]

We can expect a lot of hospitals shutting their doors then when there is no room for admissions.

It's not as black and white as that! I think the person you are responding to is more likely to have an accurate idea given they work in a hospital

A lot of people have no idea how hospitals work. It's the same with schools and people saying they should close. I am fortunate to have experience of both.

 

[DustyBin]

I'm currently watching PMQ's. Johnson's performance under scrutiny is frankly pathetic. He can't explain why gyms have to close and he can't explain why pubs can't sell takeaway alchohol to go with takeaway meals. His response to everything is "we're taking measues to save lives". I guess we'll just have to take your word for it Boris....

 

[philosopher]

It's quite surprising to me how negative and critical people are on here about the UK policy, even though it's broadly similar to the German policy, which is mostly supported by German residents so far as I can see. Does this forum represent typical attitudes in Britain?

In my view the big difference between Germany, which by most accounts has handled the pandemic well, and the UK is the implementation of policy. We have had a Track & Trace app since June for instance. Implementation doesn't seem to get discussed much here through.

For me the issue is that here, despite a three month lockdown in the Spring, we seem to have very little to show for it. The virus has continued to spread widely, while the economy and people’s lives have been massively disrupted, so we seem to have ended up in the worst of both worlds. In Germany (I may be wrong here) I get the impression the restrictions in the Spring were eased earlier than the UK, there was a greater return to normality over the Summer and finally the tightening of restrictions in the Autumn has been less than the UK as you are only going back into a partial instead of a full lockdown.

 

[AntoniC]

The new lockdown means my life will not be any more different that it has been over the last 8 months.

I will still be working from home , most probably delivering the extended Job Retention Scheme,
I will ne socially isolating myself and only seeing my dad once a week and as a family we had already agreed that due to family circumstances, I will spend Christmas on my own.

 

[Darandio]

I will spend Christmas on my own.

If this is the case then make sure you are on here at least, i'm sure many of us have our inboxes open if you need a chat.

 

[TheSel]

Also note we are only in this position because the Government decided to suppress a summer outbreak in favour of a winter one.
This is what the lockdown people did when they ordered the March lockdown, and they should admit to it.

At last! Someone who recognises the cause and effect.

√

10/10 VG.

 

[Tin Rocket]

It's not as black and white as that! I think the person you are responding to is more likely to have an accurate idea given they work in a hospital

A lot of people have no idea how hospitals work. It's the same with schools and people saying they should close. I am fortunate to have experience of both.

Our Hospital ICU capacity is black and white though,its going to be reached before long.