Lockdown in England from Thursday 5 November until Wednesday 2 December

[ABB125]

During that speech, you could easily make a drinking game out of it:

Drink one shot every time somebody said "Next Slide Please"
Drink two shots every time someone said "eh" or "uh"
Drink three shots every time "NHS" was mentioned

Just some humor.

At that rate you may become one of the many people neglected due to coronavirus patients! Woe betide ye!

 

[GRALISTAIR]

The news reports prior to the conference said that outbound flights would not be permitted (except for business purposes).
Personally, I would have thought it would make more sense to stop inbound flight: people leaving become the problem of the country they land in!

Yes did not make sense to me either.

 

[bramling]

There isn't anybody willing to take over from him so he'll either have to step down through I'll health or just hang on until there's a challenge from the opposition, (which doesn't want the chalice whilst it's still full of poison).

I agree, just that I think there’s going to be pressure from both the media and backbenchers. The media are already starting on the dithering, and before long it’s going to be a “Boris caused a longer lockdown by ignoring the scientists” narrative. Add that to “the delay to the last lockdown cost X lives” and he’s just toast.

Sunak might be quite happy to take over before some of the economic consequences need to be addressed.

 

[NorthOxonian]

Yes gotcha questions are their MO these days.

It's just ridiculous though.

I'm an undergraduate statistician - so there are hundreds of thousands better than me - and I can question the data better these journalists. That shouldn't be the case!

 

[HSTEd]

And the current situation isn't a PR disaster?

Not amongst the Tory voter base who are ultimately the only people who matter to the government.

 

[Jamesrob637]

I'd take Sunak right now

He has kept my mental health stable thanks to furlough and is continuing to do so
Seems a well-mannered man too
I have confidence in him and his role as it is far from easy!

 

[GRALISTAIR]

It's just ridiculous though.

I'm an undergraduate statistician - so there are hundreds of thousands better than me - and I can question the data better these journalists. That shouldn't be the case!

I know it really is annoying. It needed Andrew Neil asking questions

 

[ABB125]

Yes did not make sense to me either.

The alternative is to stop all air travel to/from the UK; I'm not sure that would go down well though...

 

[bramling]

Not amongst the Tory voter base who are ultimately the only people who matter to the government.

I wouldn’t bank on that. Many Conservative voters I suspect are absolutely fuming.

The only thing is that Labour don’t offer an alternative.

 

[Llanigraham]

Not amongst the Tory voter base who are ultimately the only people who matter to the government.

Not sure about that. The local Tory party are reporting a huge drop in membership.

 

[brad465]

So we have some of the government voting with the opposition, some of the opposition voting with the government, some voting for the "correct" side. Recipe for confusion and delay? That Fat Controller will not be amused!

If the vote passed where Labour were almost entirely in support along with the core numbers in Government, but at least half the Tory backbenchers voted against or abstained, you'd be forgiven for thinking Labour were the Governing party right now.

 

[ABB125]

Not amongst the Tory voter base who are ultimately the only people who matter to the government.

Normally I'd agree with you, but at the current rate it seems to be "Facebook Karen", the "locktivists" and "following the science" who are the ones who matter.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

The alternative is to stop all air travel to/from the UK; I'm not sure that would go down well though...

I know but I am biased there. My wife is traveling to the UK Friday arriving Saturday. Delta/KLM via Amsterdam. Or should I say she is supposed to be and booked on the flights.

 

[NorthOxonian]

I know it really is annoying. It needed Andrew Neil asking questions

Well if there's one good thing - if I can moan against it anyone can. I'm currently enjoying my penultimate trip out of the year, sat in a pub in safely Tory Chippenham - and everyone in here has questioned his judgement.

 

[ainsworth74]

There isn't anybody willing to take over from him so he'll either have to step down through I'll health or just hang on until there's a challenge from the opposition, (which doesn't want the chalice whilst it's still full of poison).

Quite. If I'm a Tory MP I'm quite happy for Boris to continue in post to attract as much criticism for this (and that other increasingly voluminous elephant in the room Brexit) for as long as possible. Certainly well into 2021 and then stick the knife in once he's no longer useful as a damage magnet. Right now though? I want him to stay exactly where he is as there's no point offering up someone else's career as a sacrifice.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Well if there's one good thing - if I can moan against it anyone can. I'm currently enjoying my penultimate trip out of the year, sat in a pub in safely Tory Chippenham - and everyone in here has questioned his judgement.

Wow that is not good.

 

[ABB125]

I wouldn’t bank on that. Many Conservative voters I suspect are absolutely fuming.

The only thing is that Labour don’t offer an alternative.

Definitely! Including no doubt the people in the north who voted Conservative for the first time ever in December. I have a feeling that the new "blue wall" may go the same way as Trump's wall (ie: nowhere) at the next election.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Quite. If I'm a Tory MP I'm quite happy for Boris to continue in post to attract as much criticism for this (and that other increasingly voluminous elephant in the room Brexit) for as long as possible. Certainly well into 2021 and then stick the knife in once he's no longer useful as a damage magnet. Right now though? I want him to stay exactly where he is as there's no point offering up someone else's career as a sacrifice.

That is extremely cynical but I think you are absolutely spot on there.

 

[bramling]

Definitely! Including no doubt the people in the north who voted Conservative for the first time ever in December. I have a feeling that the new "blue wall" may go the same way as Trump's wall (ie: nowhere) at the next election.

Yes and he can probably kiss goodbye to the few remaining London seats as well.

I just don’t know what planet BJ is on.

 

[ABB125]

Well if there's one good thing - if I can moan against it anyone can. I'm currently enjoying my penultimate trip out of the year, sat in a pub in safely Tory Chippenham - and everyone in here has questioned his judgement.

Wow that is not good.

I haven't joined the UoB Conservative Society, but I'd love to know what its members are thinking right now!

 

[rcro]

It will go through, as Labour wanted this all along, and there won't be enough tories rebelling

Itll be interesting to see what happens. It’s been said BoJo will need to rely on Labour votes to get it through, but that has its problems: with the recent suspension of Corbyn, those who followed him may defy Starmer who was very vocal about us needing another lockdown, but those who were/are now very anti-Corbyn will probably be easily persuaded to follow Starmer in the vote to approve the lockdown.

If the vote passed where Labour were almost entirely in support along with the core numbers in Government, but at least half the Tory backbenchers voted against or abstained, you'd be forgiven for thinking Labour were the Governing party right now.

Is now the time that politics takes over from anything else? The SNP and Labour could do well to abstain so it's down to either the Tories to vote for this, or the Tories to vote against their Prime Minister. My gut is that it is going to go through but don't underestimate how slimy politicians can be when there's the opportunity to get one up on the opposition!

 

[ABB125]

Quite. If I'm a Tory MP I'm quite happy for Boris to continue in post to attract as much criticism for this (and that other increasingly voluminous elephant in the room Brexit) for as long as possible. Certainly well into 2021 and then stick the knife in once he's no longer useful as a damage magnet. Right now though? I want him to stay exactly where he is as there's no point offering up someone else's career as a sacrifice.

To be perfectly honest that's a good strategy. It also gives more time for a new leader to emerge like a butterfly and glide gracefully about Parliament gaining support.

Sorry, I may have accidentally entered fantasy land there...

 

[kristiang85]

Is now the time that politics takes over from anything else? The SNP and Labour could do well to abstain so it's down to either the Tories to vote for this, or the Tories to vote against their Prime Minister. My gut is that it is going to go through but don't underestimate how slimy politicians can be when there's the opportunity to get one up on the opposition!

The problem is that Labour are checkmated - if they vote against it, and there is no lockdown, there will inevitably be a rise in deaths (as happens every winter). The Tories will just twist this and say that Labour killed those people, effectively. If they vote for it, people are still going to die in lockdown and due to lockdown, but the Tories can say Labour supported it. I can't see what else they can do. Even abstaining isn't a good look.

 

[_toommm_]

The problem is that Labour are checkmated - if they vote against it, and there is no lockdown, there will inevitably be a rise in deaths (as happens every winter). The Tories will just twist this and say that Labour killed those people, effectively. People are still going to die in lockdown and due to lockdown, but the Tories can say Labour supported it. I can't see what else they can do. Even abstaining isn't a good look.

It’s just going to add further fuel to the Labour infighting whatever happens

 

[ABB125]

Yes and he can probably kiss goodbye to the few remaining London seats as well.

I just don’t know what planet BJ is on.

London's running red with blood from the civil disorder... oh wait, it's actually Labour seats! The next general election will be absolutely fascinating. And I'll have to choose who's the least-worst option...

Is now the time that politics takes over from anything else? The SNP and Labour could do well to abstain so it's down to either the Tories to vote for this, or the Tories to vote against their Prime Minister. My gut is that it is going to go through but don't underestimate how slimy politicians can be when there's the opportunity to get one up on the opposition!

Perhaps the fact that Labour is likely to vote for the government will encourage more Conservatives to vote against, as they know the motion will pass, but can make their dissatisfaction known.

 

[HSTEd]

Not sure about that. The local Tory party are reporting a huge drop in membership.

Membership is of no consequence.

They will still vote for the blue rosette when ordered.

 

[158756]

Yes and he can probably kiss goodbye to the few remaining London seats as well.

I just don’t know what planet BJ is on.

Johnson is trying to save his skin from the public and media pressure to save the NHS, save granny etc. Reaching 1000 deaths a day again would be the end of his career just as much as lockdown.

The trouble is, what is the alternative? The Labour Party under Keir Starmer will not rest until the whole labour force is begging on the streets.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Funny how a couple of weeks ago they didn't have enough to pay workers in Manchester in Tier 3, now they got enough for furlough for another couple of months.

Disgraceful had they put this money on the table in the first place then these areas would have been in local lockdown earlier and suppressed cases.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 31 Oct 2020 ==

Itll be interesting to see what happens. It’s been said BoJo will need to rely on Labour votes to get it through, but that has its problems: with the recent suspension of Corbyn, those who followed him may defy Starmer who was very vocal about us needing another lockdown, but those who were/are now very anti-Corbyn will probably be easily persuaded to follow Starmer in the vote to approve the lockdown.

Majority of Labour wanted the circuit breaker so they have no choice but to support

 

[brad465]

What are the odds there might be newsworthy protests tomorrow in light of this announcement, given it's still the weekend?

 

[ABB125]

What are the odds there might be newsworthy protests tomorrow in light of this announcement, given it's still the weekend?

I would have thought that there will be some small scale protests, but I don't think it will be possible to organise something big (ie: 10s of 1000s marching on Parliament) overnight.