Lockdown in England from Thursday 5 November until Wednesday 2 December

[kristiang85]

One wonders if these models are even peer reviewed. There certainly needs to be more transparancy.

The original Ferguson model in March wasn't, so I doubt this one is.

Now the BBC are reporting this at the top of their homepage:

Coronavirus: Cabinet to meet as PM considers England lockdown

A new month-long "stay at home" order could be announced as soon as Monday, it is understood.

www.bbc.co.uk

The joke is that they are allowing the schools and universities to continue, but look at the age groups with the most spread on figure 5 here... https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...-number-of-people-in-england-who-had-covid-19

Basically, the steepest rises are in school and university age groups. Which is expected at this time of year anyway, but you can't justify a lockdown based on the rises in those age groups but let them be exempt.

(annoyingly this won't let me take a screenshot on my mobile, but I'll edit later with a screenshot once I'm on my desktop computer)

I've honestly never been so angry and upset at a decision made by a government in my life. SAD is bad enough as it is at this time of year, but at least we always have a social season to look forward to. This is going to be terrible.

 

[SuspectUsual]

Basically, the steepest rises are in school and university age groups. Which is expected at this time of year anyway, but you can't justify a lockdown based on the rises in those age groups but let them be exempt.

(annoyingly this won't let me take a screenshot on my mobile, but I'll edit later with a screenshot once I'm on my desktop computer)

I made the same point in post #43 and attached a photo of the graphs.

I’ve got two kids at university and one at sixth form college and whilst they assure me they’re “being sensible” (I know......) if even half of the stuff they tell me about what they’ve seen their peers do is true, the number in their age groups with C19 is only going to increase

 

[DustyBin]

This is interesting data. My own interpretation of it is that the novel Coronavirus arrived and claimed a large number of victims, albeit mostly vulnerable, as we had no immunity to it. It has now settled in (for want of a better expression) and is existing alongside, and most likely competing with, various established Coronaviruses and Rhinoviruses. Initial death rate aside, there’s nothing here to suggest that COVID-19 is particularly virulent. Even hospital admissions and the infection rate are easily explained as we are testing so many people and asymptomatic admissions are counted in the statistics. If I’m missing something here please feel free to tell me!

InProportion2 Covid-19 Dashboard

Covid-19 dashboard for England and Wales combining multiple official data sources in once place. Data last refreshed: 2022-01-16 02:43. Includes data items such as hospital admissions and NHS triage statistics to give a nuanced view of how Covid-19 is developing

inproportion2.talkigy.com

 

[kristiang85]

I made the same point in post #43 and attached a photo of the graphs.

I’ve got two kids at university and one at sixth form college and whilst they assure me they’re “being sensible” (I know......) if even half of the stuff they tell me about what they’ve seen their peers do is true, the number in their age groups with C19 is only going to increase

Ah cheers mate, sorry I must have missed that

 

[adc82140]

I've booked a haircut for Monday morning just in case. Not having the moptop again.

 

[Jamesrob637]

I've booked a haircut for Monday morning just in case. Not having the moptop again.

I only had mine done a fortnight ago and had it very short then so it'll be just after the festive period when I next need to go.

 

[Ianno87]

The original Ferguson model in March wasn't, so I doubt this one is.



The joke is that they are allowing the schools and universities to continue, but look at the age groups with the most spread on figure 5 here... https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...-number-of-people-in-england-who-had-covid-19

Basically, the steepest rises are in school and university age groups. Which is expected at this time of year anyway, but you can't justify a lockdown based on the rises in those age groups but let them be exempt.

(annoyingly this won't let me take a screenshot on my mobile, but I'll edit later with a screenshot once I'm on my desktop computer)

I've honestly never been so angry and upset at a decision made by a government in my life. SAD is bad enough as it is at this time of year, but at least we always have a social season to look forward to. This is going to be terrible.

Much more significant rise for secondary school age than primary school age, however.

Primaries are pretty much in line with the general population.

 

[brad465]

I've booked a haircut for Monday morning just in case. Not having the moptop again.

I did mine a few weeks ago in case, back in March I did exactly what you've done for this Monday and had mine cut 10 hours before lockdown when I normally would have waited 2 weeks, which kept me going for 3 months (I usually have them quarterly).


As well as confirmed cases levelling off recently, infection survey data has yet to cover off half term, which is likely to come through this week and the week after and could well confirm a peak.

 

[Ianno87]

I did mine a few weeks ago in case, back in March I did exactly what you've done for this Monday and had mine cut 10 hours before lockdown when I normally would have waited 2 weeks, which kept me going for 3 months (I usually have them quarterly).


As well as confirmed cases levelling off recently, infection survey data has yet to cover off half term, which is likely to come through this week and the week after and could well confirm a peak.

Although given the miserable weather this half term, lots of families are likely to have stayed at home so there may well not be a peak, but a small falling off.

 

[Smidster]

The Government clearly hasn't learned any lessons whatsoever from Lockdown 1 - Yet again we have dither and delay as things go downhill in a hurry.

They are very lucky the weather is so foul this weekend which may put some off the last weekend of freedom.

An absolutely miserable November ahead and then the double whammy of Brexit at New Year when we screw up all the other sectors not impacted as much by Covid.

It is so awful to know that your life, which is already pretty rubbish, is only going to get worse and there is nothing you can do about it.

 

[_toommm_]

Just announced - there will be a news conference at 4pm today held by Boris Johnson

 

[Ianno87]

Just announced - there will be a news conference at 4pm today held by Boris Johnson

Blimey - he's working on a weekend. Must be urgent crisis management needed this time.

 

[DelayRepay]

Blimey - he's working on a weekend. Must be urgent crisis management needed this time.

Yes, also reported that an emergency cabinet meeting is about to take place.

 

[johntea]

In other sad news Sean Connery has died

...Think I migt be treating myself to an Alan Partridge style Bond weekend at this rate! Minus Sunny Delight

 

[PTR 444]

Just announced - there will be a news conference at 4pm today held by Boris Johnson

On Halloween night as well. Can’t think of a better way to scare us all!

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Just announced - there will be a news conference at 4pm today held by Boris Johnson

Witty and Valence being wheeled out to give him some credibility - will he take questions and how will he react i wonder to Beth Rigby "why didn't you follow the scientists advice back in September and have a two week circuit breaker"

 

[bramling]

Blimey - he's working on a weekend. Must be urgent crisis management needed this time.

Oh dear! Things must be bad...

I suspect the main focus today is how the hell do we find a way of pacifying people. I would love to be a fly on the wall in that cabinet meeting.

 

[Class 33]

Whitty and Valance again at this press conference! Get ready for more babbling of doom and gloom from them yet again. These are the guys who said cases could reach 50,000 a day by mid October!

 

[bramling]

The Government clearly hasn't learned any lessons whatsoever from Lockdown 1 - Yet again we have dither and delay as things go downhill in a hurry.

They are very lucky the weather is so foul this weekend which may put some off the last weekend of freedom.

I don’t know, London seems pretty busy today.

Then there’s always the option to go for a nice long extended visit to the supermarket, which will keep people out of the rain!

 

[DelayRepay]

Maybe the news conference is to try to put the second lockdown rumours to bed? (we can live in hope!)

 

[bramling]

Maybe the news conference is to try to put the second lockdown rumours to bed? (we can live in hope!)

The only hope is if he’s been pilloried by backbenchers, the media, Sunak, or perhaps even the ERG.

Let’s hope so, but it’s not looking good.

 

[Trackman]

Maybe the news conference is to try to put the second lockdown rumours to bed? (we can live in hope!)

I wouldn't hold your breath.
Well from I've read the lockdown was leaked to the press hence emergency cabinet meeting.

 

[Tomp94]

Maybe the news conference is to try to put the second lockdown rumours to bed? (we can live in hope!)

Unfortunately that is wishful thinking. They’d have simply denied it all outright if it was not true

 

[Class 33]

Maybe. As something as drastic as a full national lockdown would more likely be announced by an "Address to the nation" from Boris only, rather than a press conference. But I expect this press conference is because of the press being leaked details of this national lockdown, and for Boris to explain along with Whitty and Vallance(*sigh*) with all the graphs they'll no doubt show as why a national lockdown will be going ahead. I could be wrong maybe, but probably not.

 

[northernchris]

Witty and Valence being wheeled out to give him some credibility - will he take questions and how will he react i wonder to Beth Rigby "why didn't you follow the scientists advice back in September and have a two week circuit breaker"

That woman is so annoying! She clearly has a pro-lockdown agenda and comes across quite aggressive

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

Just announced - there will be a news conference at 4pm today held by Boris Johnson

Changed to 5pm now

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Changed to 5pm now

Beeb probably told them 4Pm wouldn't be good time as they have a Live six Nations rugby match on!!

 

[adc82140]

Maybe. As something as drastic as a full national lockdown would more likely be announced by an "Address to the nation" from Boris only, rather than a press conference. But I expect this press conference is because of the press being leaked details of this national lockdown, and for Boris to explain along with Whitty and Vallance(*sigh*) with all the graphs they'll no doubt show as why a national lockdown will be going ahead. I could be wrong maybe, but probably not.

I think you're right. A ministerial statement would be required for a lockdown (not to mention the fact that national measures are supposed to be debated in the Commons too). I predict a Tier 4 announcement, with most of the North of England placed in it. Then watch in the next week as that spreads, leading to a national lockdown in all but name, possibly excluding Cornwall and the Isle of Wight. Let's see in a few hours how way off I am.

 

[HSTEd]

Fairly clear SAGE are just generating more and more terrifying models to justify their preferred strategy of eternal lockdown.

Once one death toll is proven insufficiently terrifying they immediately generate another one with an even higher death toll.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

I think you're right. A ministerial statement would be required for a lockdown (not to mention the fact that national measures are supposed to be debated in the Commons too). I predict a Tier 4 announcement, with most of the North of England placed in it. Then watch in the next week as that spreads, leading to a national lockdown in all but name, possibly excluding Cornwall and the Isle of Wight. Let's see in a few hours how way off I am.

The only places excluded will be the Isles of Scilly. Lockdown is coming to the land masses soon to be renamed the Silly Isles