Lockdown in England from Thursday 5 November until Wednesday 2 December

[bramling]

No doubt bumbling and banging his clenched fist on the table and telling us we will fight this and what a great nation we are. At least his speech means no Eastenders which is punishment & misery itself.

CJ

It really annoys me the way he is looking to have bungled this. If it was going to happen then he should have done it at the same time as Wales. For the second time we've now seen him bumble around and end up doing it late, which is going to make it hard to lift in short order.

I am *so* sick to death of him.

(Note I'm absolutely *not* saying it should happen as I don't think it should, but if he is going to do it then it should have been earlier.)


== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 31 Oct 2020 ==

How much of this depends on the data from the Imperial College survey, which would be OK if it wasn't for the fact that Imperial College is also developing a potential vaccine???

The same Imperial who spurred the last lockdown, and whose predictions were generally regarded to have been wide of the mark by some margin...

 

[duncanp]

So does this mean another furlough scheme will be brought back?

That is a good question.

If there is no kind of financial support for businesses and employees there is likely to be a large number of redundancies and business failures.

I think the government is spending the weekend working out what to do.

The budget in the spring will not make for pleasant reading, as we will eventually have to start paying for all of this.

 

[yorksrob]

This modelling that these SAGE people have come up with needs to be fully disclosed to the public. Let us see what assumptions they're making.

 

[seagull]

Next time the world stops, I'm definitely getting off.

 

[Pete_uk]

Next time the world stops, I'm definitely getting off.

I wouldn't wait for it to stop, just take a leap!

Anyway, I cannot see any way of lockdown 2 being done without financial support as just going for a few weeks without pay will put people on the streets.

 

[adc82140]

So they want to shut the shops in the run up to Christmas, where they do the bulk of their trade. Much as I despise Black Friday, it will be an Amazon only event this year. Farewell high street.

 

[bramling]

I wouldn't wait for it to stop, just take a leap!

Anyway, I cannot see any way of lockdown 2 being done without financial support as just going for a few weeks without pay will put people on the streets.

There will be guaranteed civil disobedience if not. But, on the other hand, I would rate there also being a chance that those at work may also kick off at the prospect of having to subsidise this again, especially when the "key workers" in particular don't feel particularly well valued after last time.

In fact, I continue to take the line that I am not working through another lockdown on that basis.

 

[joncombe]

So they want to shut the shops in the run up to Christmas, where they do the bulk of their trade. Much as I despise Black Friday, it will be an Amazon only event this year. Farewell high street.

Then if the rumours are believed and shops re-open in the first week of December expect chaos as Christmas shopping is compressed into 3 weeks especially if there are still capacity limits in shops due to distancing. Madness.

 

[bramling]

Then if the rumours are believed and shops re-open in the first week of December expect chaos as Christmas shopping is compressed into 3 weeks especially if there are still capacity limits in shops due to distancing. Madness.

Yep that would be utter chaos. Closing shops now is no different to having messed up a large amount of the spring / summer for the holiday industry, or Wales doing its circuit breaker over half term.

Meanwhile, there seemed to be a lot of people in the small Sainsbury's here just now, which is pretty unusual for this time on a Saturday morning. Please don't say panic buying is starting up again.

 

[trebor79]

Also has Boris and other members of the cabinet not taken into account we may have reached the peak in cases? Cases hit 26,888 NINE days ago, and cases have not risen to or above that amount since! We may have reached the peak. Why go into a catastrophic 4 week national lockdown??!!

And yet Kings College London are saying that cases are not spiralling out of control.

BBC News site this morning saying SAGE have modelled 4,000 deaths per day by mid December. Well with an IFR of 0.3%, that's well over a million infections per day needed to achieve that sort of death rate. In a population of 65m, already with some immunity.
It's not plausible, they appear to be assuming exponential growth continues ad infinitum. Unfortunately Boris and co don't have the nous to challenge dodgy figures like this.

If this comes in I'm taking Tuesday off to do my Christmas shopping in Norwich. I'm not giving my money to Bezos when there are very decent businesses I can support instead.

 

[bramling]

BBC News site this morning saying SAGE have modelled 4,000 deaths per day by mid December. Well with an IFR of 0.3%, that's well over a million infections per day needed to achieve that sort of death rate. In a population of 65m, already with some immunity.
It's not plausible, they appear to be assuming exponential growth continues ad infinitum. Unfortunately Boris and co don't have the nous to challenge dodgy figures like this.

What a shambles.

 

[trebor79]

Meanwhile, there seemed to be a lot of people in the small Sainsbury's here just now, which is pretty unusual for this time on a Saturday morning. Please don't say panic buying is starting up again.

It will. I've seen people on twitter saying "at least we have a few days to stock up on essentials". When was access to food etc ever restricted, other than by the stupid panic buyers. At least the supermarkets are aware and will rapidly.impose buying limits if it starts again.

 

[PTR 444]

Now the BBC are reporting this at the top of their homepage:

Coronavirus: Cabinet to meet as PM considers England lockdown

A new month-long "stay at home" order could be announced as soon as Monday, it is understood.

www.bbc.co.uk

The prime minister is considering a month-long lockdown across England in the hope that measures could be eased before Christmas, the BBC understands.
A new "stay at home" order could be announced on Monday, with schools, colleges and universities exempt.
Documents seen by the BBC suggest the UK is on course for a much higher death toll than during the first wave unless further restrictions are introduced.
Deaths could reach more than 4,000 a day, one of the models suggests.
This figure is based on no policies being brought in to slow the spread of the disease.
At the height of the pandemic during the spring, deaths in the UK reached more than 1,000 a day.
Infection rates have also been surging across the Channel, prompting new forms of lockdown in Belgium, France and Germany.

 

[Class 33]

There were reports earlier this month and in September that the country is highly likely to go back into a full national lockdown. But at the time, this never happened. Well this time it is looking highly likely a national lockdown will happen within days. All the press and media are reporting it, that it will be a 4 week lockdown and even specifically stating it will run from 4th November through to 1st December, and some sources saying that Boris will "Address the nation" on Monday night. It's going to happen this time. Boris has given in to the constant daily pestering for a national lockdown from the likes of SAGE and Whitty and Valance.

Someone here mentioned this is going to feel very much deja vu. Absolutely it will be. It will be just like completely resetting back to the national lockdown back on 23rd March. The "Stay at Home, Protect the NHS, Save Lives" slogan will return again, along with the thousands of times the accompanying ads will air on the TV and radio. For many people this is going to be an absolute nightmare going through all this over again. Many people's mental health will really suffer. Many businesses I expect will go under this time, many more than the first lockdown. Many people's livelihoods will be ruined. But the government just don't seem to be concerned about this. And I expect it won't end up being a 4 week lockdown, as they'll probably review it and decide to extend it by at least another 3 or 4 weeks. This will run right up to Christmas or even beyond. And then once the lockdown is eased, just like the first time this will be a gradual process taking months again! Absolutely bloody nightmare this is going to be.

I heard on the BBC News this morning that SAGE are predicting deaths could reach 5,000 per day if we don't lockdown. 5,000 per day??? Really, how did they come to that conclusion? And some other "experts" predicting that deaths could reach 500 per day, but this could last months.

Also the government don't seem to take into account that we may possibly have reached the peak of cases, back on 21st October - some TEN days ago, when there were 26,866 cases. We have not reached that figure or gone above it since then, which is encouraging. And also the overall R rate has decreased down to between 1.1 and 1.3.

 

[adc82140]

The likes of B&Q have said that they will remain open this time as they consider themselves to be hardware stores. I wonder how many other shops will search for loopholes like this?

 

[yorksrob]

I heard on the BBC News this morning that SAGE are predicting deaths could reach 5,000 per day if we don't lockdown. 5,000 per day??? Really, how did they come to that conclusion? And some other "experts" predicting that deaths could reach 500 per day, but this could last months.

One wonders if these models are even peer reviewed. There certainly needs to be more transparancy.

I hear on the news that no 10 is hoping to keep schools open this time. This lockdown will be a complete waste of time then.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

It’s having a serious toll on mental health now too, and on health in other ways too.

Meanwhile Sky News have just reported that some kind of statement is expected from BJ on, you guessed it, Monday...

Quite , I have struggled with access to dentistry and am just about to sign into some more treatment. Closing the service down when good precautions and some access is available , with considerable efforts made to prioritise and clear backlogs would be madness.

What about access to opticians etc , as above.

 

[Bantamzen]

We should learn one thing from la Belgique if we do (quoted from the BBC):

"households are allowed just one visitor."

Even one person visiting would make a massive difference for many. Class33 should at least back me up here.

Not if you are a grandparent missing their children and grandchildren. Why the hell should families be constrained to something like this, it is literally inhuman.

Boris has always said, whilst reluctant, if cases and more importantly hospital admissions go the wrong way then he will have to consider the toughest measures to try and get things back under control.

All these decisions should not be based on Xmas either, that would be lunancy to say thr least.

As ever, anywhere that closes must get government support, if you can't afford it then shutting everything down is perhaps not the right way to go but it does seem unless there is a vaccine, there is no real way of defeating this virus.

At the end of the day hospitals are paid for by people earning & spending money. Curtail that and you are going to starve the NHS of future funds, and this will result in far more deaths than the virus could ever cause. That is lunacy.

 

[bramling]

The likes of B&Q have said that they will remain open this time as they consider themselves to be hardware stores. I wonder how many other shops will search for loopholes like this?

Will be interesting to see if garden centres stay open.

Whilst gardening isn’t exactly at its peak at this time of year, most garden centres tend to do a Christmas range. Interestingly I’ve seen a few houses with Christmas decorations up already, I suppose that’s one way of cheering things up through what’s clearly going to be a dismal few weeks.

 

[adc82140]

Of course after 9th November Wales comes out of lockdown. So expect the shops in Chepstow to be rather busy.

 

[Bantamzen]

Of course after 9th November Wales comes out of lockdown. So expect the shops in Chepstow to be rather busy.

Never mind the 9th of November, the 5th could be interesting this year....

 

[Tomp94]

This lockdown can’t be happening at a worse time. I’m in the middle of a long drawn out house purchase. Took me a while to get the mortgage due to furlough. Am waiting to exchange and complete now.
In the event of a new lockdown I’d be furloughed but my job is safe.

No doubt my mortgage could either be pulled or more wait and delay with the contracts and exchange whilst in lockdown


I am disgusted by this government. Every single document produced by these phoney scientists who’s jobs and livelihoods aren’t at risk, should be published immediately

Who wants to be a modern day guy Fawkes?

Edit: someone a little more successful than guy fawkes

 

[trebor79]

I heard on the BBC News this morning that SAGE are predicting deaths could reach 5,000 per day if we don't lockdown. 5,000 per day??? Really, how did they come to that conclusion? And some other "experts" predicting that deaths could reach 500 per day, but this could last months.

Also the government don't seem to take into account that we may possibly have reached the peak of cases, back on 21st October - some TEN days ago, when there were 26,866 cases. We have not reached that figure or gone above it since then, which is encouraging. And also the overall R rate has decreased down to between 1.3 and 1.5.

The SAGE prediction is absolutely absurd. For that to occur you'd need over a million cases a day by next week (allowing for lag between infection and death). Even if the virus doubles every 7 days (and it's about every 13 days at present), you'd need about 600,000 infections per day right now to make that happen.
We're nowhere near that, nowhere near. Best estimate is about 100,000 per day at present.

I'm incredibly annoyed at this latest bout of hysteria from the government. I knew it was coming when for the past few days ministers have been saying it won't or they are doing everything to avoid it. That was the softening up excercise. Doesn't make it any less stupid though.

 

[C J Snarzell]

So does this mean another furlough scheme will be brought back?

The answer is YES. As long as they continue with this lockdown stupidity they have to provide financial support. They cannot enforce one without the other

It'll be interesting what Sunak has up his sleeve at the next Budget to claw all this money back. Taxes will go up, but guess what? Half of the population won't be paying their taxes - they are on Universal Credit because of what your idiot boss has done.

CJ

 

[northernchris]

At the end of the day hospitals are paid for by people earning & spending money. Curtail that and you are going to starve the NHS of future funds, and this will result in far more deaths than the virus could ever cause. That is lunacy.

And once you factor in more cancelled non-essential operations and reduced preventative screening, the overall quality of health of the population will decline which in turn will put further pressure on hospital admissions.

I'm really concerned of the impact another lockdown will have on the high street, especially on what would be their busiest time. When non-essential retail was allowed to reopen back in June cases remained a downward trajectory so it's clear they aren't a huge source of infection, yet forcing them to close will put thousands of jobs at unnecessary risk

 

[Yew]

I care because we need to know if it was worth doing so that governments can learn form it.

I'll try and explain in more detail; lockdowns might look good on the numbers immediately afterwards, but what really matters is if they do any good in the long run.

It's not a great analogy, but imagine an F1 race, one competitor can be ahead because another is in the pits, but if they're going to be 2 seconds a lap faster on fresh tires, then they're not going to be ahead at the finish line.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 31 Oct 2020 ==

BBC News site this morning saying SAGE have modelled 4,000 deaths per day by mid December. Well with an IFR of 0.3%, that's well over a million infections per day needed to achieve that sort of death rate. In a population of 65m, already with some immunity.
It's not plausible, they appear to be assuming exponential growth continues ad infinitum. Unfortunately Boris and co don't have the nous to challenge dodgy figures like this.

If this comes in I'm taking Tuesday off to do my Christmas shopping in Norwich. I'm not giving my money to Bezos when there are very decent businesses I can support instead.

<sarcasm?You're forgetting that herd immunity isn't real, and you're a eugenicist if you disagree...</sarcasm>

 

[C J Snarzell]

Obviously no Black Friday this year then?

To be fair everyday since the 23rd March has been 'black' or at least 'grey'.

CJ

 

[island]

No harm. Another nonsense American import.

 

[Domh245]

I wouldn't wait for it to stop, just take a leap!

I'm afraid many people will...

 

[Class 33]

Also the government don't seem to take into account that we may possibly have reached the peak of cases, back on 21st October - some TEN days ago, when there were 26,866 cases. We have not reached that figure or gone above it since then, which is encouraging. And also the overall R rate has decreased down to between 1.3 and 1.5.

A correction to that earlier post of mine about the R rate. It's actually decreased down to between 1.1 and 1.3.