How much longer will social distancing go on for in the UK?

[Yew]

They weren't testing asymptomatic people with hyper-sensitive genetic material detection back then...

If we looked at only symptomatic postive tests (which has generally been the definition of a 'case' up until now), the numbers are a lot lower. Turkey already does that (hence why they were struck off the travel corridor list), but actually I think Turkey's numbers show a more true representation of the pandemic.

It's fortunate that PCR testing has never caused fake epidemic before.

Deaths peaked in the UK for COVID at around 1,100 with a lockdown. Without one, that population adjustment would be unnecessary to show that it would be much much higher.

How much evidence is there that it did anything to the peak. If it did, surely we would see a significantly proportionally higher peak in Sweden, who didn't lock down?

 

[Bletchleyite]

How much evidence is there that it did anything to the peak. If it did, surely we would see a significantly proportionally higher peak in Sweden, who didn't lock down?

Sweden locked down voluntarily. It was effectively the same as if we'd followed Bozza's "don't go to the pub" speech without him needing to legally mandate it.

 

[DB]

Deaths peaked in the UK for COVID at around 1,100 with a lockdown. Without one, that population adjustment would be unnecessary to show that it would be much much higher.

It's not clear what role the lockdown played, given that it took place right at the time when the 'flu season' normally ends anyway. The fact that it didn't shoot straight back up suggests that the time of year wasa a significant factor. The fact that it's rising again in October is also not surprising.

 

[Yew]

Sweden locked down voluntarily. It was effectively the same as if we'd followed Bozza's "don't go to the pub" speech without him needing to legally mandate it.

I don't think it's possible to lock down voluntarily. By definition lockdowns are mandated.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I don't think it's possible to lock down voluntarily. By definition lockdowns are mandated.

Well, you can use whatever term you like to describe what happened, which was that Sweden's population voluntarily followed the advice they were given to minimise social contact.

 

[bramling]

It's an empty meaningless phrase. I'd prefer people said nothing.

The worrying thing is we sort of saw a “new normal” come in after 9/11, some elements of which are still with us nearly 20 years later.

We need to be careful that doesn’t happen here.

 

[DB]

I don't think it's possible to lock down voluntarily. By definition lockdowns are mandated.

Sweden introduced some rules (much less draconian than here), and people appear to have considered them reasonable and by and large stuck to them. The rules have also remained pretty constant.

In contrast here, the rules change every five minutes and many of them have lo discernible evidence or logic behind them. The public was willing to comply here at the beginning, just as in Sweden - this is shown by the high compliance in April and May. The actions fo the governments (England, Scotland ad Wales) since then have siginificantly reduced that willingness to go along with the rules.

 

[Yew]

Well, you can use whatever term you like to describe what happened, which was that Sweden's population voluntarily followed the advice they were given to minimise social contact.

No, I'm using the well defined and commonly understood nomenclature. You're engaging in pointless redefinitions to deflect from the actual points being made.

 

[DB]

Well, you can use whatever term you like to describe what happened, which was that Sweden's population voluntarily followed the advice they were given to minimise social contact.

The rules were likewise followed here back in April/May - without threats of massive fines for sime trivial violation. The difference now has been caused by the behaviour of the government.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The rules were likewise followed here back in April/May - without threats of massive fines for sime trivial violation. The difference now has been caused by the behaviour of the government.

I would agree that (specifically Cummings) is contributory, but two wrongs don't make a right and I'd question the morals and ethics of those who think they do.

 

[Howardh]

The worrying thing is we sort of saw a “new normal” come in after 9/11, some elements of which are still with us nearly 20 years later.

Yes, and not just boarding aircraft. Everywhere you go there's a likelyhood of being searched for security, be it a football ground, pub, virtually anywhere. I think most of us accept that in order to stay safe? However where was security when you needed it most @ Manchester Arena? The enquiry is ongoing, and I await the conclusions, but from what's already been published, security was "lax".

But back on topic, will the public adjust to wearing masks for....ever?? if a vaccine doesn't work? Maybe they will, but can they go on not hugging relatives? Not going abroad? I certainly can't be locked indoors for long, I need all the stuff I'm used to, be it sport, the pub, the lovers, the holiday on Ibiza. If life doesn't return to "normal" and this continues on and on...what sort of life is left for me/us?

 

[Bikeman78]

Sweden locked down voluntarily. It was effectively the same as if we'd followed Bozza's "don't go to the pub" speech without him needing to legally mandate it.

To be fair, far fewer people in the UK were going to the pub in the fortnight before lockdown, apart from the surge immediately before lockdown. Clearly the virus was running riot by early March. As I understand it, pubs and restaurants never had to close in Sweden. Perhaps some closed voluntarily but people must have used those that remained open or they would be bankrupt. Perhaps @scarby can comment?

 

[DB]

I would agree that (specifically Cummings) is contributory, but two wrongs don't make a right and I'd question the morals and ethics of those who think they do.

I'm not just talking about flouting the rules themselves (although that's certainly nor helped) - it's far wider than that: the lack of any strategy, the flip-flopping, the introduction of draconian rules (e.g. masks) on the flimsiest of evidence, with no system to evaluate whether they are actually doing anything and no end date, the constant increasing of fines for trivial things - and so on.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 23 Oct 2020 ==

Yes, and not just boarding aircraft. Everywhere you go there's a likelyhood of being searched for security, be it a football ground, pub, virtually anywhere. I think most of us accept that in order to stay safe? However where was security when you needed it most @ Manchester Arena? The enquiry is ongoing, and I await the conclusions, but from what's already been published, security was "lax".

Equally, that was a concert where a large part of the audience would be expected to be teenage girls - not exactly the sort of audience where problems are expected.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I'm not just talking about flouting the rules themselves (although that's certainly nor helped) - it's far wider than that: the lack of any strategy, the flip-flopping, the introduction of draconian rules (e.g. masks) on the flimsiest of evidence, with no system to evaluate whether they are actually doing anything and no end date, the constant increasing of fines for trivial things - and so on.

And this is why I think Sturgeon has got it spot on, even though I don't agree with all her measures. She's decided things and stuck with them. She's communicated clearly and effectively. She has come out of it all smelling of roses and is likely to mean SNP success and Scottish independence now a certainty within the next 10 years. Whereas Boris's career is in tatters.

 

[Howardh]

To be fair, far fewer people in the UK were going to the pub in the fortnight before lockdown, apart from the surge immediately before lockdown. Clearly the virus was running riot by early March. As I understand it, pubs and restaurants never had to close in Sweden. Perhaps some closed voluntarily but people must have used those that remained open or they would be bankrupt. Perhaps @scarby can comment?

Sweden has expensive alcohol, and maybe there is less consumption and nights out are a mixture of sof and hard drinks? Also the virus was worst during summer, when Sweden take the opportunity to be outside; so that may have helped. Tat's assuming busy bars and merry people cause the spread of covid, which I don't think's been proved.

 

[DB]

And this is why I think Sturgeon has got it spot on, even though I don't agree with all her measures. She's decided things and stuck with them. She's communicated clearly and effectively. She has come out of it all smelling of roses and is likely to mean SNP success and Scottish independence now a certainty within the next 10 years. Whereas Boris's career is in tatters.

She's a much better communicator, that I will grant. However, she certainly hasn't decided things and stuck with them - the measures in Scotland have changed nearly as often as the ones in England.

 

[bramling]

Yes, and not just boarding aircraft. Everywhere you go there's a likelyhood of being searched for security, be it a football ground, pub, virtually anywhere. I think most of us accept that in order to stay safe? However where was security when you needed it most @ Manchester Arena? The enquiry is ongoing, and I await the conclusions, but from what's already been published, security was "lax".

It isn’t even so much the measures (I suspect most people probably accept that airport security measures are a necessary evil that, with hindsight, might have been in place hitherto), but the attitudes.

I’m sure most of us on here will had the experience of “you can’t do that - security reasons”, when in reality it’s “I don’t like people doing that”. Just like there’s people who make up their own laws in an attempt to bully others into doing something, or more often not doing something, that affronts their own prejudices or preferences.

This whole thing, and masks in particular, has given these unpleasant interfering vigilante types of people a real raison d’etre, and it’s something which needs to be stamped upon.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 23 Oct 2020 ==

She's a much better communicator, that I will grant. However, she certainly hasn't decided things and stuck with them - the measures in Scotland have changed nearly as often as the ones in England.

Communications certainly help, and hers have been better than BJ’s by miles. And I say that as someone who isn’t a fan of hers by any means, I think she’s a toxic hateful divisive and incompetent individual, but I can’t fault her communications on this.

 

[Richard Scott]

She has come out of it all smelling of roses and is likely to mean SNP success and Scottish independence now a certainty within the next 10 years.

Which will help the rest of the UK's economy. Will the Scots be thankful for being a basket case economy?

 

[Bikeman78]

Tat's assuming busy bars and merry people cause the spread of covid, which I don't think's been proved.

I'm not convinced that they do. Belgium doesn't have a heavy drinking culture. In fact table service in pubs has existed there for years. Despite this, and masks everywhere, they are one of the worst countries in the world for Covid deaths.

 

[initiation]

Without one, that population adjustment would be unnecessary to show that it would be much much higher.

Is there any evidence for that? The countries with the highest death rate per capita are Peru and Belgium, yet they had more severe lockdowns than the UK. You could give an alien graphs of 10 different countries and ask them to judge who had the most severe lockdown - they would not be able to tell. I am not denying the death rate might have been a little bit higher but "much much higher", there is no evidence to support that.

Well, you can use whatever term you like to describe what happened, which was that Sweden's population voluntarily followed the advice they were given to minimise social contact.

Can you support this with literally any data or evidence that contact was "minimised"? Sure they took some sensible measures but for the vast majority of Swedes, there was no 'lockdown'. This is supported by Google mobility reports which shows decreases on mobility were massively lower in Sweden.

Also, a key point from a civil liberties perspective is that these changes were advised; they didn't have these authoritarian decrees so sure if you wanted to go to a bar, you still could but some people didn't.

 

[Bantamzen]

Well, you can use whatever term you like to describe what happened, which was that Sweden's population voluntarily followed the advice they were given to minimise social contact.

That isn't "locking down".

 

[kristiang85]

Sweden has expensive alcohol, and maybe there is less consumption and nights out are a mixture of sof and hard drinks? Also the virus was worst during summer, when Sweden take the opportunity to be outside; so that may have helped. Tat's assuming busy bars and merry people cause the spread of covid, which I don't think's been proved.

Having been to Sweden a few times, I can assure you that their Friday/Saturday nights out are just as crazy as ours -the drink is expensive yes, but people (young ones in particular) tend to pre-drink and then go out, so are just as drunk as we can be.

As you say, the link between drinking and COVID spread has not been proven, and I doubt there is much of a link. South Africa completely banned the sale of alcohol in both bars and shops, and it make no difference to the upward curve - and ironically cases only came down once the sales were reinstated! (that's no causation though - it was just the epidemic following the typical graph). So it makes no difference whatsover.

 

[Jamesrob637]

In April and May the weather was fantastic almost everywhere in the UK even if a little chilly. Just wear a sweater though and you'd be fine.

In October and November that's far from the case. Not warm enough to go out in short sleeves yet much too rainy to be pleasant outdoors when seated.

 

[kez19]

And this is why I think Sturgeon has got it spot on, even though I don't agree with all her measures. She's decided things and stuck with them. She's communicated clearly and effectively. She has come out of it all smelling of roses and is likely to mean SNP success and Scottish independence now a certainty within the next 10 years. Whereas Boris's career is in tatters.

I'm afraid the vibe I get from people locally and some who voted for her are well... fed up, so why did she not lockdown Glasgow/Central belt of Scotland in terms of cases then? She was quick to close off Aberdeen but she has still not took proper action for those areas? Oh yes funny how you mention independence I see she is allowing a March in Dundee to go ahead on Saturday but yet children can't go out for Halloween - yep COVID in this case does pick and choose so at a guess you be more struck down by COVID guising than you are at a march (mixing with other households and all that.... yes once again its one rule for us and them or if you are associated by political party it still is one rule for us/them)..

If independence did happen she be off like a rocket and let Scotland crumble, just a pity she can't take responsibilty or flak when things she says but lets pass the buck as usual.

As for Boris he has went down my estimation but he is on par with her, I am sure once this is all over they'll be part of The Three Stooges tribute act.


Sturgeon has communicated well.... like what I, I, me, me, things go tits up.... UK Governments fault! Tory's Fault, Boris Fault, deflect!

Sturgeon also has more scandals under her belt than I care to remember!, but yes she will be smelling of roses by the end of this, just a thing here since I stay in Scotland but I wouldn't believe the media up here anyway, BBC Scotland and STV have become SNP propaganda hence why I don't watch the news as all they do in general is paint a positive picture when it clearly isn't but hey believe what you want!

 

[superalbs]

Yes I too can't stand the phrase "The new normal" either. I prefer to call it "The temporary normal".

Or just, "not normal", because it's not.

 

[Bikeman78]

Having been to Sweden a few times, I can assure you that their Friday/Saturday nights out are just as crazy as ours -the drink is expensive yes, but people (young ones in particular) tend to pre-drink and then go out, so are just as drunk as we can be.

As you say, the link between drinking and COVID spread has not been proven, and I doubt there is much of a link. South Africa completely banned the sale of alcohol in both bars and shops, and it make no difference to the upward curve - and ironically cases only came down once the sales were reinstated! (that's no causation though - it was just the epidemic following the typical graph). So it makes no difference whatsover.

When I went to Stockholm, it did seem a bit more civilised than typical UK cities but it was still very busy and there were lots of tourists. I could say the same for the likes of Antwerpen but Belgium has suffered from Covid more than most. I've rarely seen drunk groups of people staggering about and I've been on trams and trains almost to close of service.

 

[Huntergreed]

Nicola Sturgeon again emphasising that her 'level 0' restrictions are the closest to normal we can get without a vaccine, regardless of how long this takes. I fear if a complication appears on the road to a vaccine, this cannot go on for that much longer.

 

[kristiang85]

Nicola Sturgeon again emphasising that her 'level 0' restrictions are the closest to normal we can get without a vaccine, regardless of how long this takes. I fear if a complication appears on the road to a vaccine, this cannot go on for that much longer.

I think Level 0 is on a par with August? So no fans at sporting events, only small groups allowed to meet, all the masks and social distancing in place? Yep, people won't put up with that beyond a few more months. And that's optimistic.

 

[ScotRail158725]

I think Level 0 is on a par with August? So no fans at sporting events, only small groups allowed to meet, all the masks and social distancing in place? Yep, people won't put up with that beyond a few more months. And that's optimistic.

level 0 is groups of up to 15 can meet, social distancing and masks indoor but everything else is largely unrestricted

 

[bramling]

I think Level 0 is on a par with August? So no fans at sporting events, only small groups allowed to meet, all the masks and social distancing in place? Yep, people won't put up with that beyond a few more months. And that's optimistic.

Now the weather has turned damp, one wonders how many mould-infested masks are being used?