How much longer will social distancing go on for in the UK?

[John Luxton]

I must admit I had to do a double take when her name resurfaced. Surely not the same one who was involved in Stockwell? Shows how things fade out of memory over time.

I never forgot her name - it is rather memorable if it had been Smith or Jones I would have probably forgotten! - But seriously what happened there was a disgrace. I know at the time the police were under pressure because of terror incidents but that was just over the top and she should have been dismissed. Not promoted. Most other people if they fouled up in their job to the extent someone died would have been well and truly sacked.

John

 

[Tetchytyke]

Most other people if they fouled up in their job to the extent someone died would have been well and truly sacked.

If you think that was bad, they made Norman Bettison (he of the Hillsborough cover up) Chief Constable of Merseyside!

 

[bramling]

I never forgot her name - it is rather memorable if it had been Smith or Jones I would have probably forgotten! - But seriously what happened there was a disgrace. I know at the time the police were under pressure because of terror incidents but that was just over the top and she should have been dismissed. Not promoted. Most other people if they fouled up in their job to the extent someone died would have been well and truly sacked.

John

I certainly think a dignified withdrawal from public-facing work wouldn’t have gone amiss.

That’s not to say I don’t have some sympathy for her as she was doing a very tough job that day, however as you say there has to be some accountability when one is responsible for a public execution, especially when the whole thing was so utterly bungled. There seemed to be a bit of an attempt to cover it up in the immediate aftermath as well.

 

[C J Snarzell]

If you think that was bad, they made Norman Bettison (he of the Hillsborough cover up) Chief Constable of Merseyside!

They even Knighted Bettison too which was a complete insult to the Hillsborough families. Stormin Norman actually set a record at one stage as the highest earning cop in the UK - he drew a big fat pension from Merseyside, then went onto become Chief Constable of West Yorkshire drawing a regular salary of £150,000 a year. Who says being a corrupt liar doesn't pay?

CJ

 

[LAX54]

So... Tier 1 and Tier 2....If you are in Tier 2 there are no vists to your home from anyone (a few exceptions), if you ive in Tier 1, and you are of course allowed a gaggle of 6 people at your hoise, so, are you allowed to visit friends and family in Tier 2 ? (travelling from T1)

 

[island]

At the risk of a slight oversimplification, you must follow the restrictions of where you live or where you currently are, whichever is stricter.

In your case, whilst visiting a tier 2 friend you may not gather in their house (unless one of the various exemptions apply). The garden is, for the time being, fair game.

 

[Bletchleyite]

So... Tier 1 and Tier 2....If you are in Tier 2 there are no vists to your home from anyone (a few exceptions), if you ive in Tier 1, and you are of course allowed a gaggle of 6 people at your hoise, so, are you allowed to visit friends and family in Tier 2 ? (travelling from T1)

You have to apply the strictest tier that applies to the situation you are in, so if you go to a house in T2, T2 applies, even if you live in T1.

 

[Yew]

I think this is the best place to put this, but according to the Guardian:

We can’t be sure that vaccines will mean an end to lockdowns. Scientists advise politicians to lock down to prevent the virus spreading so fast that hospitals run out of beds to treat the sick – whether they have Covid-19 or another life-threatening illness.

If our whole strategy might not mean the end to these measures, surely we have to move onto something else?

 

[Bantamzen]

I think this is the best place to put this, but according to the Guardian:



If our whole strategy might not mean the end to these measures, surely we have to move onto something else?

I think some scientists might want to start leaving the village before we get the torches and pitchforks out.....

 

[LAX54]

At the risk of a slight oversimplification, you must follow the restrictions of where you live or where you currently are, whichever is stricter.

In your case, whilst visiting a tier 2 friend you may not gather in their house (unless one of the various exemptions apply). The garden is, for the time being, fair game.

Okey dokey, so sopmeone in Suffolk cannot visit freinds in Essex, but Essex can visit Suffolk mates .

 

[greyman42]

No. Essex is tier 2 so whether you are in Essex or visiting friends outside of Essex, you are still tier 2.

 

[carlberry]

I think this is the best place to put this, but according to the Guardian:



If our whole strategy might not mean the end to these measures, surely we have to move onto something else?

Resourcing the NHS so it's got spare capacity built in, not constantly running at 100% and failing every time winter happens might be a good start!

 

[brad465]

Question Time in Sedgefield has just had a question on "Given how long this has gone on and there is no way out, are we all going to follow the rules?" This then saw several audience members cite their own challenges of mental health and/or of their relatives, as well as a brief recall of the 83 year old on the news yesterday openly opposed to what's going on.

This does seem to be a positive sign of a change in attitudes, given they all admitted this on national television.

 

[HSTEd]

I think some scientists might want to start leaving the village before we get the torches and pitchforks out.....

The Maxim Gun made mobs largely useless as a weapon against the ruling class.

Many senior scientists and politicians have been peddling some Hollywood vaccine silver bullet for months to justify the current strategy
Why would they stop now?

 

[Bantamzen]

The Maxim Gun made mobs largely useless as a weapon against the ruling class.

Many senior scientists and politicians have been peddling some Hollywood vaccine silver bullet for months to justify the current strategy
Why would they stop now?

Because the ruling class don't sit behind the Maxim Gun, or load it, or face the bullets coming the other way. They need popular support lest those guns be turned on them....

 

[Class 33]

Am absolutely sick to the teeth of social distancing now and how long it is dragging on for with no apparent end in sight again now. I can't stand hearing the words "social distancing" and "socially distanced". When I'm watching the news and it looks like these words are about to be mentioned I have my finger on the mute button on my TV remote control ready to block these blasted words out! Although I'm not always successful as sometimes the words are said when I'm least expecting them to! Also on some of the buses in Bristol there are precorded announcements going off every few minutes about "Must wear a face mask...." and "The number of available seats on this service have been reduced to aid social distancing.". I put my fingers in my ears when the "social distancing" words are mentioned to block them out! I really am that fed of hearing those words now. And I'm sure I'm not the only one!

 

[DB]

Am absolutely sick to the teeth of social distancing now and how long it is dragging on for with no apparent end in sight again now. I can't stand hearing the words "social distancing" and "socially distanced". When I'm watching the news and it looks like these words are about to be mentioned I have my finger on the mute button on my TV remote control ready to block these blasted words out! Although I'm not always successful as sometimes the words are said when I'm least expecting them to! Also on some of the buses in Bristol there are precorded announcements going off every few minutes about "Must wear a face mask...." and "The number of available seats on this service have been reduced to aid social distancing.". I put my fingers in my ears when the "social distancing" words are mentioned to block them out! I really am that fed of hearing those words now. And I'm sure I'm not the only one!

You are certainly not the only one! It's mad worse by the fact that it's actually a meanngless phrase - what they actually mean is 'physical distancing'.

 

[Ascotroyal]

Am absolutely sick to the teeth of social distancing now and how long it is dragging on for with no apparent end in sight again now. I can't stand hearing the words "social distancing" and "socially distanced". When I'm watching the news and it looks like these words are about to be mentioned I have my finger on the mute button on my TV remote control ready to block these blasted words out! Although I'm not always successful as sometimes the words are said when I'm least expecting them to! Also on some of the buses in Bristol there are precorded announcements going off every few minutes about "Must wear a face mask...." and "The number of available seats on this service have been reduced to aid social distancing.". I put my fingers in my ears when the "social distancing" words are mentioned to block them out! I really am that fed of hearing those words now. And I'm sure I'm not the only one!

Likewise. Where i work every 15 minutes i have listen to a tedious announcent about wearing masks ensuring both nose and mouth are protected and follow social distancing at all times. No comment about exemptions though which iv complained about.

The only saying that annoys me more is "the new normal"

 

[Class 33]

Likewise. Where i work every 15 minutes i have listen to a tedious announcent about wearing masks ensuring both nose and mouth are protected and follow social distancing at all times. No comment about exemptions though which iv complained about.

The only saying that annoys me more is "the new normal"

Yes I too can't stand the phrase "The new normal" either. I prefer to call it "The temporary normal", as that it was it should be, and not "The new normal" as though it will be like this forever now. But I don't see any of the media or politicians mentioning the temporary normal! But it's just not sustainable atall for this new normal to continue very long term or indefintely!

Back around July I noticed there were a few TV ads that mentioned things like "As things start returning to normal...". At that point I felt real hope that the ending of this destructive, restrictive and hassly "social distancing" would be on the horizon. Coronavirus cases, deaths, hospital admissions, etc were really coming down, the lockdown was easing every month. Things were looking promising. I was very much looking forward to the end of social distancing. But so much for that now. Things have changed since then, and there's just no end in sight for social distancing being scrapped anytime soon. This could even drag on beyond the end of March 2021, until if or when a vaccine is found, despite the effect it continues to have on the economy, people's livelihoods and their mental health.

I've noticed the Class 165 and Class 166's on Great Western Railway services are now having automated announcements about social distancing going off every few minutes! I was on one earlier today. "Oh for goodness sake!" I thought to myself when I heard that, and sighed and shook my head!

 

[Andrew S]

Yes I too can't stand the phrase "The new normal" either. I prefer to call it "The temporary normal"

It's an empty meaningless phrase. I'd prefer people said nothing.

 

[Bikeman78]

Back around July I noticed there were a few TV ads that mentioned things like "As things start returning to normal...". At that point I felt real hope that the ending of this destructive, restrictive and hassly "social distancing" would be on the horizon. Coronavirus cases, deaths, hospital admissions, etc were really coming down, the lockdown was easing every month. Things were looking promising. I was very much looking forward to the end of social distancing. But so much for that now. Things have changed since then, and there's just no end in sight for social distancing being scrapped anytime soon. This could even drag on beyond the end of March 2021, until if or when a vaccine is found, despite the effect it continues to have on the economy, people's livelihoods and their mental health.

It will drag on until enough people decide that they have had enough. Is anyone here old enough to remember the Hong Kong flu outbreak in 1968? With people unable to work from home and no internet shopping, I'm guessing that life carried on largely as normal. Were hospitals overwhelmed?

 

[MikeWM]

It will drag on until enough people decide that they have had enough. Is anyone here old enough to remember the Hong Kong flu outbreak in 1968? With people unable to work from home and no internet shopping, I'm guessing that life carried on largely as normal. Were hospitals overwhelmed?

Tony Benn doesn't appear to mention it in his diaries at all, and he was a government minister at the time! It seems (correctly) that it wasn't a political issue.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Tony Benn doesn't appear to mention it in his diaries at all, and he was a government minister at the time! It seems (correctly) that it wasn't a political issue.

Peaked at 600 deaths per day with no measures at all, so nothing like as serious.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31201-0/fulltext

The result was that as the UK's weekly death count mounted, peaking at about 600 in the week ending Oct 17, 1957, there were few hysterical tabloid newspaper headlines and no calls for social distancing. Instead, the news cycle was dominated by the Soviet Union's launch of Sputnik and the aftermath of the fire at the Windscale nuclear reactor in the UK.

 

[DB]

Peaked at 600 deaths per day with no measures at all, so nothing like as serious.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31201-0/fulltext

Remember that there was lower life expectancy then, so there would have been far fewer people particularly susceptible - i.e. very elderly and with existing serious medical conditions.

 

[MikeWM]

Peaked at 600 deaths per day with no measures at all, so nothing like as serious.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31201-0/fulltext

600 a day is the number given for the Asian flu. That article doesn't give an equivalent number for HK flu.

In addition, that article points out that half the HK flu deaths were in the under 65s, so it appears that it had a more alarming demographic hit for the young than the current virus.

 

[Yew]

Peaked at 600 deaths per day with no measures at all, so nothing like as serious.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31201-0/fulltext

Do some population adjustment...

 

[HSTEd]

Thanks to the exponential nature of the epidemic, hospitals would only be overwhelmed for a relatively brief period, especially if a brief lockdown is used on the "downslope" to sever the tail.

Given that we've had months of terrifying people to avoid hospitals and cancelling a lot of healthcare activities anyway, the question has to be asked about the real additional effect if they had just allowed hospitals to be swamped for a few weeks.
(Indeed in that strategy the optimal public policy goal would have been to drive R as high as possible in low risk groups to speed up the burn)

The Unions apparently agreed a cutting of staff in ICUs from 1:1 patient:worker to 6:1 patient:workers when the Nightingales were opening.
So it is unlikely that hugely increased mortality would have followed in coronavirus patients.

 

[DB]

Thanks to the exponential nature of the epidemic, hospitals would only be overwhelmed for a relatively brief period, especially if a brief lockdown is used on the "downslope" to sever the tail.

Given that we've had months of terrifying people to avoid hospitals and cancelling a lot of healthcare activities anyway, the question has to be asked about the real additional effect if they had just allowed hospitals to be swamped for a few weeks.

And don't forget that they've barely used any of the Nightingale hospitals. Before anyone raises the point about staffing, yes they have to staff them but I would assume they had plans on how they would do that, otherwise there would have been no point in setting them up.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Do some population adjustment...

Deaths peaked in the UK for COVID at around 1,100 with a lockdown. Without one, that population adjustment would be unnecessary to show that it would be much much higher.

 

[kristiang85]

Peaked at 600 deaths per day with no measures at all, so nothing like as serious.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31201-0/fulltext

They weren't testing asymptomatic people with hyper-sensitive genetic material detection back then...

If we looked at only symptomatic postive tests (which has generally been the definition of a 'case' up until now), the numbers are a lot lower. Turkey already does that (hence why they were struck off the travel corridor list), but actually I think Turkey's numbers show a more true representation of the pandemic.