How much longer will social distancing go on for in the UK?

[bramling]

Indeed.

The argument against this approach really boils down to “it’s not fair for only one group to suffer, so everyone has to suffer”. Basically equality of misery!

Good leadership should be adept at dealing with the “it’s not fair” mentality. We don’t have that.

Remember Mrs Thatcher’s comments about the gap?

 

[Yew]

Good leadership should be adept at dealing with the “it’s not fair” mentality. We don’t have that.

Indeed, I think a campaign of "This is the fastest way to return to normal" would easily put paid to any such criticisims.

 

[43066]

Good leadership should be adept at dealing with the “it’s not fair” mentality. We don’t have that.

Remember Mrs Thatcher’s comments about the gap?

Along the lines of socialists would rather have the poor poorer so long as the gap is smaller?

I don’t suppose she could have dreamt she was describing the actions of a future Tory government!!

 

[LAX54]

How much difference would adhering to the WHO recommdendation with regardsb to C19 of 'closer than 1 metre for more than 15 mins ' to be at risk ? what change to life etc would that have to everyday life ?

 

[NorthOxonian]

How much difference would adhering to the WHO recommdendation with regardsb to C19 of 'closer than 1 metre for more than 15 mins ' to be at risk ? what change to life etc would that have to everyday life ?

The most obvious issue is that everyone (other than those cohabiting) would have to become completely celibate.

 

[Class 33]

I think Johnson needs to answer some questions on his chopping and changing of when social distancing could end. And I'm surprised that no MP's or the media are asking similar questions.....

1) Two weeks ago he told us "These restrictions may last 6 months." giving the impression that it may not be quite as long as 6 months. Yet just a few days later Sunak said "These restrictions will last AT LEAST another 6 months.". They both contradict each other! Which is/was at the time actually correct, Johnson's statement or Sunak's statement?

And just a couple of weeks on from that Johnson now says "I promise to end social distancing by October 2021."!!! So....

2) Why exactly does he think social distancing rules may be required for as long as another 12 MONTHS?

3) If we can defeat this second peak and get the numbers of cases and deaths down to LOW levels, can social distancing then be scrapped? And if not, then why not?? Alternatively, what exactly is the criteria required for social distancing to be scrapped?


---------

Social distancing just can not continue for as long as another YEAR yet! If it does, then godknows what the economy and the unemployment numbers are going to be like by October next year! It doesn't bear thinking about. Some reports that they're expecting the number of unemployed to be 4 million by NEXT YEAR. I really do think they're being very conservative about that figure. I think it will be well over 4 million from November. 4 and a half million at the VERY least from November I reacon. And that number will continue to rise as the weeks go on whilst social distancing still remains. Some reports saying that from November that "There will be a tsunami of jobs cuts from November." and "There will be jobs cuts from November on an absolutely biblical scale.".

Plus the effects this is having on the nation's mental health. Many people's mental health are already suffering because of these restrictions for the past 6 and a half months. Can you imagine how much worst this will get if these restrictions remain for the long period of a further 12 MONTHS?? The government just don't seem to be very concerned about this. A further 6 months from now is bad enough, but another 12 months! A further 6 more months would be a struggle for me, but I may just about get through it somehow. But a further 12 months, well I just don't think I'll be able to take all this for another 12 months! Social distancing and all the problems it's causing(there's a LOT more implications and problems to this than just moving to be 2 metres away when passing people!), having to wear horrible face coverings in shops, etc and public transport, seeing all these black and yellow hazard tapes everywhere, INCREDIBLY difficult to find work whilst these restrictions drag on, plus other reasons this is effecting my mental health I do not wish to discuss here. Many MANY people's mental health is suffering because of these seemingly never-ending restrictions.

 

[brad465]

If it interests anyone this is the Great Barrington Declaration, which can be signed by the general public:

Great Barrington Declaration and Petition

As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists we have grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies, and recommend an approach we call Focused Protection

gbdeclaration.org

 

[MattA7]

Good I think everybody should be signing it. If it increases the chances of normality returning.

 

[kristiang85]

Plus the effects this is having on the nation's mental health. Many people's mental health are already suffering because of these restrictions for the past 6 and a half months. Can you imagine how much worst this will get if these restrictions remain for the long period of a further 12 MONTHS?? The government just don't seem to be very concerned about this. A further 6 months from now is bad enough, but another 12 months! A further 6 more months would be a struggle for me, but I may just about get through it somehow. But a further 12 months, well I just don't think I'll be able to take all this for another 12 months! Social distancing and all the problems it's causing(there's a LOT more implications and problems to this than just moving to be 2 metres away when passing people!), having to wear horrible face coverings in shops, etc and public transport, seeing all these black and yellow hazard tapes everywhere, INCREDIBLY difficult to find work whilst these restrictions drag on, plus other reasons this is effecting my mental health I do not wish to discuss here. Many MANY people's mental health is suffering because of these seemingly never-ending restrictions.

Quite. As has been discussed previously, whilst I'm not being badly affected by the policies in any obvious way, you're right in that it's all the little things that add up. Not being able to spontaneously go to the pub; bloody Zoom calls for both work and socialising; a life ruled by black and yellow tape; having to run home after I've forgotten my mask; the risk of being shouted at by COVID vigilantes for various minor reasons; not being able to plan or look forward to trips or events far in advance in case rules change; etc. etc. - it is a path to mental illness for many by way of a thousand cuts.

If this goes on for 12 months, there is going to be an incredibly weary, depressed and pretty cheesed off population - it will explode at some point, either in social unrest or a huge rise in poor health statistics (poor mental health is bad enough on its own, but it also leads to a weakened immune system, which will make the population more susceptible to everything else as well as COVID)

 

[bramling]

Quite. As has been discussed previously, whilst I'm not being badly affected by the policies in any obvious way, you're right in that it's all the little things that add up. Not being able to spontaneously go to the pub; bloody Zoom calls for both work and socialising; a life ruled by black and yellow tape; having to run home after I've forgotten my mask; the risk of being shouted at by COVID vigilantes for various minor reasons; not being able to plan or look forward to trips or events far in advance in case rules change; etc. etc. - it is a path to mental illness for many by way of a thousand cuts.

If this goes on for 12 months, there is going to be an incredibly weary, depressed and pretty cheesed off population - it will explode at some point, either in social unrest or a huge rise in poor health statistics (poor mental health is bad enough on its own, but it also leads to a weakened immune system, which will make the population more susceptible to everything else as well as COVID)

An excellent post, and IMO sums things up pretty well.

Patience is going to run out, especially with winter weather.

 

[John Luxton]

If it interests anyone this is the Great Barrington Declaration, which can be signed by the general public:

Great Barrington Declaration and Petition

As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists we have grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies, and recommend an approach we call Focused Protection

gbdeclaration.org

Yes I have already signed it for us rail enthusiasts its just a no brainer not to.

After many years of almost zero national network travel following passing my driving test in 1982 I have gone to all heritage lines by car as well as a few network branch lines in the south west. I was able to take early retirement just after turning 60 in December and thought I would go exploring the national network. My 60+ Railcard arrived around the time of lockdown! No way am I sitting in a train for hours with a mask on. Therefore its not been used!

 

[MattA7]

I wonder what they will do during Christmas time. I don’t celebrate Christmas but I imagine those who do will be unwilling to tolerate such restrictions even if they are pro-restrictions at the moment and I imagine that the government knows this deep down.

 

[Mugby]

You have to hand it to Boris, no one does bluff and bluster like he does but it's pretty obvious now that he will have to retreat from his position of total elimination of the virus, preferably sooner rather than later, the longer he leaves it, the more awkward it will be for him.

If the Barrington Declaration gains traction, it's a pity that Whitty and Vallance aren't signatories to it because they are effectively running the country at the moment, Boris simply acquiesces to their wishes.
Remember Whitty wanted the restriction to be in place for 'a very very long time'? - looks like he's got that now.
Remember they wanted a trade off; pubs shut so that schools could re-open? - they're not so far off achieving that too.

I think most of us on this board would agree that large sections of the economy, on life support now, will become irretrievable in the next few months.
Despite all the rubbish about 'We're going to build, build, build our way out of this' I can imagine a point being reached when Conservative high command, the grandees, men in grey suits or whatever will take Boris to one side and say 'Enough'.

 

[brad465]

You have to hand it to Boris, no one does bluff and bluster like he does but it's pretty obvious now that he will have to retreat from his position of total elimination of the virus, preferably sooner rather than later, the longer he leaves it, the more awkward it will be for him.

If the Barrington Declaration gains traction, it's a pity that Whitty and Vallance aren't signatories to it because they are effectively running the country at the moment, Boris simply acquiesces to their wishes.
Remember Whitty wanted the restriction to be in place for 'a very very long time'? - looks like he's got that now.
Remember they wanted a trade off; pubs shut so that schools could re-open? - they're not so far off achieving that too.

I think most of us on this board would agree that large sections of the economy, on life support now, will become irretrievable in the next few months.
Despite all the rubbish about 'We're going to build, build, build our way out of this' I can imagine a point being reached when Conservative high command, the grandees, men in grey suits or whatever will take Boris to one side and say 'Enough'.

The nearer we get to the end of October, the more traction I can see the declaration gaining. Public signatures were 80,000 when I signed it, nearly 4 hours later they're 93,661, so will likely get 100,000 by early tomorrow. The more it gets publicised the higher this will of course get. At least they've made this declaration with time available to change course before the end of furlough scheme tipping point arrives, but with talk of more restrictions next week, it will take a sizeable party revolt to see a change in course (the rebels though now have this declaration to backup their positions).

 

[Skimpot flyer]

M

This was very evident yesterday in Shipley, as the rain tipped down shoppers quickly abandoned the wide uncovered sections of the pavements in favour of all walking under the narrow covered areas next to the shops. And where some shops started to form queues, punters quickly opted to go elsewhere rather than risk ending up queuing in the rain.

I predicted this would happen

 

[bramling]

You have to hand it to Boris, no one does bluff and bluster like he does but it's pretty obvious now that he will have to retreat from his position of total elimination of the virus, preferably sooner rather than later, the longer he leaves it, the more awkward it will be for him.

If the Barrington Declaration gains traction, it's a pity that Whitty and Vallance aren't signatories to it because they are effectively running the country at the moment, Boris simply acquiesces to their wishes.
Remember Whitty wanted the restriction to be in place for 'a very very long time'? - looks like he's got that now.
Remember they wanted a trade off; pubs shut so that schools could re-open? - they're not so far off achieving that too.

I think most of us on this board would agree that large sections of the economy, on life support now, will become irretrievable in the next few months.
Despite all the rubbish about 'We're going to build, build, build our way out of this' I can imagine a point being reached when Conservative high command, the grandees, men in grey suits or whatever will take Boris to one side and say 'Enough'.

The trouble is Boris can bluster his way through things which don’t matter that much. Unfortunately this *does* matter, and his political persona has therefore hit a proverbial brick wall which it can’t get past.

I agree that this is probably going to get taken out of his hands in one way or other. The difficulty is that it’s going to be very awkward to retreat from a strategy which has cost hundreds of billions. That’s why we’re currently continuing to pour petrol on the fire whilst simultaneously trying to drain the ocean.

Someone like Tony Blair, pre Iraq at any rate, might have managed to communicate his way through this. Instead we’ve seen things like the Cummings scandal.

Meanwhile, Trump now seems to be on some kind of high. “It’s China’s fault” seems to be back in the discourse.

 

[C J Snarzell]

Given how dire this situation is panning out for the government, could we see another general election being called or will Boris simply be removed from office if his leadership becomes untenable?

CJ

 

[bramling]

Given how dire this situation is panning out for the government, could we see another general election being called or will Boris simply be removed from office if his leadership becomes untenable?

CJ

More likely it will be him removed.

I’d say it’s pretty certain he won’t be fighting another election. There may well be truth to the rumours that a graceful resignation (on health grounds) is on the cards once this is all over. I think being PM is not what he expected it to be, and to some extent he’s lost interest.

Realistically all of the current coterie of politicians are probably finished. If nothing else there will be a mood for fresh leadership. Starmer might survive simply as he appeared mid way through.

My money would be on either Gove or Hunt taking over. Sunak will be tainted.

 

[John Luxton]

I think most of us on this board would agree that large sections of the economy, on life support now, will become irretrievable in the next few months.
Despite all the rubbish about 'We're going to build, build, build our way out of this' I can imagine a point being reached when Conservative high command, the grandees, men in grey suits or whatever will take Boris to one side and say 'Enough'.

I have been a Conservative all my life of 61 years, brought up a Conservative by Conservative parents even though I live in an area which tends to nearly always vote Labour (Liverpool).

A few years ago I finally decided to join the Conservative Party and I would say I am fairly dedicated to the cause

However, I never thought a true Conservative Government would trash the economy and get the country into so much debt. No matter what the reason.

They can no longer use the excuse they are saving lives.

The fact is more lives are going to be effected by mass unemployment, failed business, property repossessions etc than can ever be imagined or will be effected by Covid.

The 2008 crash will be seen as a mere economic blip compared to what is coming. I doubt I will see us out of the mess in my lifetime given my age.

NO one at the top seem to care on the stress it is putting on people with the consequent health issues mental and physical leading to probable suicides etc.

Do these people not matter or only those with Covid? Hancocks comments about cancer treatment yesterday seem to suggest it is Covid, Covid, Covid.

Why have we become so Covid obsessed? Not just in the UK but in so many countries (with a few notable exceptions).

The Government forcibly closed businesses and then the chancellor turns around and says he can't save every job. That is a total and utter disgrace. Then don't close the businesses!

The grandees can't remove Boris too soon.

These are not traditional economy first conservatives. They have taken the ground vacated by Labour as it moved to the left. I certainly do not recognise this as true conservative government throwing money around everywhere even before Covid.

There is something sinister at play, though I don't subscribe with some of the half baked conspiracy theories either.

It is good to see another great headline in the Daily Mail for Thursday:

 

[DustyBin]

I have been a Conservative all my life of 61 years, brought up a Conservative by Conservative parents even though I live in an area which tends to nearly always vote Labour (Liverpool).

A few years ago I finally decided to join the Conservative Party and I would say I am fairly dedicated to the cause

However, I never thought a true Conservative Government would trash the economy and get the country into so much debt. No matter what the reason.

They can no longer use the excuse they are saving lives.

The fact is more lives are going to be effected by mass unemployment, failed business, property repossessions etc than can ever be imagined or will be effected by Covid.

The 2008 crash will be seen as a mere economic blip compared to what is coming. I doubt I will see us out of the mess in my lifetime given my age.

NO one at the top seem to care on the stress it is putting on people with the consequent health issues mental and physical leading to probable suicides etc.

Do these people not matter or only those with Covid? Hancocks comments about cancer treatment yesterday seem to suggest it is Covid, Covid, Covid.

Why have we become so Covid obsessed? Not just in the UK but in so many countries (with a few notable exceptions).

The Government forcibly closed businesses and then the chancellor turns around and says he can't save every job. That is a total and utter disgrace. Then don't close the businesses!

The grandees can't remove Boris too soon.

These are not traditional economy first conservatives. They have taken the ground vacated by Labour as it moved to the left. I certainly do not recognise this as true conservative government throwing money around everywhere even before Covid.

There is something sinister at play, though I don't subscribe with some of the half baked conspiracy theories either.

It is good to see another great headline in the Daily Mail for Thursday:

An excellent post, although not a party member I’m a long time Conservative voter and I agree with every word you’ve said.

 

[bramling]

I have been a Conservative all my life of 61 years, brought up a Conservative by Conservative parents even though I live in an area which tends to nearly always vote Labour (Liverpool).

A few years ago I finally decided to join the Conservative Party and I would say I am fairly dedicated to the cause

However, I never thought a true Conservative Government would trash the economy and get the country into so much debt. No matter what the reason.

They can no longer use the excuse they are saving lives.

The fact is more lives are going to be effected by mass unemployment, failed business, property repossessions etc than can ever be imagined or will be effected by Covid.

The 2008 crash will be seen as a mere economic blip compared to what is coming. I doubt I will see us out of the mess in my lifetime given my age.

NO one at the top seem to care on the stress it is putting on people with the consequent health issues mental and physical leading to probable suicides etc.

Do these people not matter or only those with Covid? Hancocks comments about cancer treatment yesterday seem to suggest it is Covid, Covid, Covid.

Why have we become so Covid obsessed? Not just in the UK but in so many countries (with a few notable exceptions).

The Government forcibly closed businesses and then the chancellor turns around and says he can't save every job. That is a total and utter disgrace. Then don't close the businesses!

The grandees can't remove Boris too soon.

These are not traditional economy first conservatives. They have taken the ground vacated by Labour as it moved to the left. I certainly do not recognise this as true conservative government throwing money around everywhere even before Covid.

There is something sinister at play, though I don't subscribe with some of the half baked conspiracy theories either.

It is good to see another great headline in the Daily Mail for Thursday:

I don’t know if it’s necessarily sinister, just a combination of circumstances:

* A leader who got there by being the least worst of a sewer-grade selection (and this wasn’t just unique to the Conservatives)

* A weird strategist (reputedly with anarchist beliefs) brought in because, as above, the leader is rubbish

* And so in order to let the strategist run everything we get the wettest and most useless cabinet in living memory.

Here we are with our economy completely trashed and people beating each other up over masks.

 

[43066]

I don’t know if it’s necessarily sinister, just a combination of circumstances:

* A leader who got there by being the least worst of a sewer-grade selection (and this wasn’t just unique to the Conservatives)

* A weird strategist (reputedly with anarchist beliefs) brought in because, as above, the leader is rubbish

* And so in order to let the strategist run everything we get the wettest and most useless cabinet in living memory.

Here we are with our economy completely trashed and people beating each other up over masks.

Very well summed up indeed. Christ almighty. If you didn’t laugh you’d cry.

 

[John Luxton]

Here we are with our economy completely trashed and people beating each other up over masks.

And that almost encouraged by the head of the Metropolitan Police too in her comments!

Someone who if there were real standards should have been sacked following the killing of Jean Charles de Menezes not promoted.

 

[bramling]

And that almost encouraged by the head of the Metropolitan Police too in her comments!

Someone who if there were real standards should have been sacked following the killing of Jean Charles de Menezes not promoted.

And comments which we can infer are endorsed by the politicians, since none of them countermanded them.

I must admit I had to do a double take when her name resurfaced. Surely not the same one who was involved in Stockwell? Shows how things fade out of memory over time.

 

[C J Snarzell]

I have a feeling that once the Covid storm has finally passed and the UK can focus on the overall devastation left behind, key faces from the government will change.

Hancock will go first - I actually think he looks like the nervous child these days who is on the verge of crying. Patel - her management of the police is dire to say the least, she needs to go and go soon. Raab - he should have tightened the border control issue early on - instead he left a hole in the boat while the rest of the cabinet has been paddling like mad to stay afloat. Then there's dear old Boris......

The rebuilding of the economy needs to be done with a fresh pair of eyes, a fresh mind and fresh optimism. In defence of Boris, he will be mentally & physically burned out by all this quite soon, anyone in his shoes will have felt like being put though a grinder repeatedly since March. Maybe he will hand the baton over at some point in 2021 before his hand is properly forced?

CJ

 

[Bantamzen]

The nearer we get to the end of October, the more traction I can see the declaration gaining. Public signatures were 80,000 when I signed it, nearly 4 hours later they're 93,661, so will likely get 100,000 by early tomorrow. The more it gets publicised the higher this will of course get. At least they've made this declaration with time available to change course before the end of furlough scheme tipping point arrives, but with talk of more restrictions next week, it will take a sizeable party revolt to see a change in course (the rebels though now have this declaration to backup their positions).

As I type the numbers are:

• 4,051 Medical & public health scientists
• 7,247 Medical practitioners
• 102,482 Members of public

When I signed it yesterday morning the numbers were approximately half these. But for me the important numbers here are number of people in the medical & scientific communities, the more that express their concerns, the more the experts currently guiding government policies will have to account for themselves. And that is what we need right now, the decision makers and their influencers to have their methods and advice challenged constantly, to ensure that they are not simply digging in instead of admitting that their strategies might not be working.

M

I predicted this would happen

As did I, and we both know it was a no-brainer. People aren't going to go out of their way to way wet through whilst queuing outside because a shop, or their local authority have decided that only so many people can be allowed in at one time based on, well who actually knows what the actual thinking is behind it?

 

[trebor79]

As did I, and we both know it was a no-brainer. People aren't going to go out of their way to way wet through whilst queuing outside because a shop, or their local authority have decided that only so many people can be allowed in at one time based on, well who actually knows what the actual thinking is behind it?

I stopped at a petrol station for the first time in ages. There was a notice on the door saying something about number of people allowed in at one time, I didn't bother reading it but did notice there were six or seven numbers in boxes with crosses through them, like it was continually changing.
Didn't notice until I was about to step out that it had a stupid one way system too, that I'd blundered round completely oblivious too.
Petrol stations (BP ones in particular) seem really keen on stupid one way systems. They are too small to be sensible, and in any case, when was the last time you were in a crowded petrol station?!

 

[Jamesrob637]

More likely it will be him removed.

I’d say it’s pretty certain he won’t be fighting another election. There may well be truth to the rumours that a graceful resignation (on health grounds) is on the cards once this is all over. I think being PM is not what he expected it to be, and to some extent he’s lost interest.

Realistically all of the current coterie of politicians are probably finished. If nothing else there will be a mood for fresh leadership. Starmer might survive simply as he appeared mid way through.

My money would be on either Gove or Hunt taking over. Sunak will be tainted.

Sunak is great but I can't see him being a good PM

(From a liberal leftie who hates people turning right on single carriageways!)

 

[Howardh]

Quite. As has been discussed previously, whilst I'm not being badly affected by the policies in any obvious way, you're right in that it's all the little things that add up. Not being able to spontaneously go to the pub; bloody Zoom calls for both work and socialising; a life ruled by black and yellow tape; having to run home after I've forgotten my mask; the risk of being shouted at by COVID vigilantes for various minor reasons; not being able to plan or look forward to trips or events far in advance in case rules change; etc. etc. - it is a path to mental illness for many by way of a thousand cuts.

If this goes on for 12 months, there is going to be an incredibly weary, depressed and pretty cheesed off population - it will explode at some point, either in social unrest or a huge rise in poor health statistics (poor mental health is bad enough on its own, but it also leads to a weakened immune system, which will make the population more susceptible to everything else as well as COVID)

You are not alone.

All the highlighted bits are what I'm going through. Throughout my life I've had everything planned, well in advance, such as holidays, day trips, sports games etc, so it's on the calendar and it's something to look forward to.

My calendar for the rest of this year and the whole of next is completely empty. Even next week's planned trip to the tram museum is probably off now.

It's the absolute emptiness that's facing me is what's driving me insane, this was supposed to last six months, it's probably nearer six years. I'll be 68, and by then will my body still be in a state to get me to where I want to go??

But back to my calendar, it frankly looks like I died last month....the only evidence is a line through a WhitbyGoth Festival later this month with "Cancelled" written over it.

 

[Andy Pacer]

I've gone out to do a Heart of Wessex ranger today with some reasonably priced tickets from Birmingham to get me there. No specific aspirations but just a yearn to get out and do something with my fairly precious spare time.

But I have nothing else "booked in" where in normal times I'd already have some trips in for early next year at least.