Further Restrictions Announced by Johnson (22/09)

[Ianno87]

The BBC article quotes the scientist saying we need to stop the virus at all costs.

"At all costs" - I love when people use that expression, because it's never what they actually mean.

 

[adc82140]

This is one scientist who sits on SAGE. There are also behavioural scientists and mental health experts to balance things, but they are obviously not wanting to have their five minutes of fame. Therefore SAGE decisions are more balanced than this, as well as the government having the final say on policy. Look at what happened in Ireland last week. Their scientists were shouting about going in to full lockdown, and in the event the government went instead for partial.

The SAGE members should be banned from speaking to the media.

 

[StationTown]

The BBC article quotes the scientist saying we need to stop the virus at all costs.

Sorry but these costs include increased deaths from other medical conditions like cancer, deteriorating mental health, increase in suicides, increased unemployment, increased homelessness, businesses closing down amongst many others.

Whilst I wish we could eliminate the virus we simply cannot have another national lockdown at any cost. The costs are to high for me.

He says no such thing. I assume the quote you're referring to is, "another national coronavirus lockdown is a possibility and we have to do what we can to avoid that at all costs." Clearly this has a different meaning to what you are suggesting.

Also, in regards to your second paragraph, Prof Peter Horby is quoted in the article as saying, "we really need to provide care to everybody - those with Covid and those without. The way to do that is to keep the numbers down." For me, he is acknowledging that there are other demands on the health service other than Covid, however he views controlling the spread of Covid as required to ensure people with non-Covid illnesses continue to receive the healthcare they require. You may disagree with this but i don't think you're fairly representing what is actually being said.

 

[bramling]

This is one scientist who sits on SAGE. There are also behavioural scientists and mental health experts to balance things, but they are obviously not wanting to have their five minutes of fame. Therefore SAGE decisions are more balanced than this, as well as the government having the final say on policy. Look at what happened in Ireland last week. Their scientists were shouting about going in to full lockdown, and in the event the government went instead for partial.

The SAGE members should be banned from speaking to the media.

The trouble is someone then reads this and thinks "we must go straight into full lockdown". People are not being fed a balanced diet of information, views and opinions - and many are seemingly incapable of seeking it out.

It's job losses which are the main driver of the change in opinion, though if your stereotypical home counties work-from-homer finds the restrictions outweigh the benefits of not having to commute to work then perhaps that may drive a shift there too. The trouble is that people have clocked on to the fact there's no real enforcement of many of the movement restrictions, so as long as they can have their day at the beach or whatever then who cares about others losing their jobs? Until, of course, they find that their own work dries up due to the ripple effect.

 

[duncanp]

The SAGE members should be banned from speaking to the media.

Definitely agree with this.

They are paid to advise the government on the scientific aspects of an issue, not to decide what government policy should be.

They shouldn't be throwing their toys out of the pram and whining to The Guardian/The BBC/..any other news media when the government doesn't do what they want.

 

[packermac]

Definitely agree with this.

They are paid to advise the government on the scientific aspects of an issue, not to decide what government policy should be.

They shouldn't be throwing their toys out of the pram and whining to The Guardian/The BBC/..any other news media when the government doesn't do what they want.

Unless their "contract" with SAGE says they cannot speak to the media when I last looked there was a free press in this country.

Plus there is also an "Independent" SAGE group that has both SAGE and non SAGE members. You proposing gagging them as well?

 

[SuspectUsual]

They are paid to advise the government on the scientific aspects of an issue, not to decide what government policy should be.

They shouldn't be throwing their toys out of the pram and whining to The Guardian/The BBC/..any other news media when the government doesn't do what they want.

Yes, but I imagine they find it increasingly difficult if their advice is not followed but the government continues to parrot the “following the science” line

 

[Bletchleyite]

"At all costs" - I love when people use that expression, because it's never what they actually mean.

Very true. Turning our nuclear arsenal on the UK to wipe out all human life would very effectively stop the virus, but I don't think anyone is seriously suggesting that.

 

[C J Snarzell]

Apparently BJ is making another announcement on restrictions tomorrow (Monday 12th October).

My guess is that he will impose a full shut down of pubs and bars in most places across the North of England (currently in the red zones), with the possibility of beauty salons and other businesses being ordered to shut too.

CJ

 

[birchesgreen]

Very true. Turning our nuclear arsenal on the UK to wipe out all human life would very effectively stop the virus, but I don't think anyone is seriously suggesting that.

Shush don't give them ideas!

 

[HSTEd]

Very true. Turning our nuclear arsenal on the UK to wipe out all human life would very effectively stop the virus, but I don't think anyone is seriously suggesting that.

It's unlikely we have sufficient yield to achieve this objective with the weapons at hand.

Estimates would put the UK nuclear arsenal at about 12 MT.
Soviets were estimated to need a couple hundred to kill 95% of the ppulation.

 

[yorksrob]

It's good to hear on the latest news bulletin, local politicians speaking out against the scapegoating of hospitality.

The Mayor of Bury said that nationally only about 2.3% ot transmissions took place in hospitality settings.

 

[Yew]

So if first lockdown didn't stop spread of virus they think we need to do it again, I'm not a top scientist but know from science if you repeat the same experiment you're likely to get similar results. So more of the same for years, destroying economy, causing mental health to spiral downward, more undetected and untreated illnesses. How positive.

I think that they're taking lessons from Field Marshal Haig.

 

[david1212]

Yesterday around 3:30pm when weatherwise it looked like the dark clouds and rain had passed over I went to the town centre as I had built up a list of items. I was surprised how many were walking around both the shopping streets and the park but maybe others too had waited for the sky to brighten for a change from being at home. The shops though overall were not busy with the only short queues outside charity shops. I did want one to buy Christmas cards and twice walked on rather than wait.

What was noticeable by 5pm were the numbers dressed for an evening out rather than daytime. Also queueing outside a couple of pubs/bars. Hence with these now closing at 10pm rather than midnight or later instead of starting their evening out at 7 - 8pm are some starting much earlier so still out for 5 hours or longer ? If so a boost for the businesses but potentially not achieving BoJo's objective particularly around 10pm and if then private partys. Even if small keeping to six or taking the risk of a few more if already half-cut distancing will be forgotten about.

While the details of the expected changes from next week are speculation if the threshold for the middle tier is 100 cases per 100000 people for now where I live will still be in the lowest tier. The adjacent area where I work though would move to the middle tier.

The local authority area where I live is also a residential area for students from two universities in the adjacent area. There always has been mixed views on this depending if overall judged a benefit or an inconvenience. If the Covid-19 case level increased so the area moved to the middle tier whatever the facts I'm sure there would be significant resentment against the students.

 

[Yew]

Apparently BJ is making another announcement on restrictions tomorrow (Monday 12th October).

My guess is that he will impose a full shut down of pubs and bars in most places across the North of England (currently in the red zones), with the possibility of beauty salons and other businesses being ordered to shut too.

CJ

Given the questionable statistics presented late last week, I fear that the rise that is driven by schools and universities will be 'tackled' by targeting pubs and social contact. Perhaps more useless masking as well.

 

[bramling]

Given the questionable statistics presented late last week, I fear that the rise that is driven by schools and universities will be 'tackled' by targeting pubs and social contact. Perhaps more useless masking as well.

My money’s on basically a copy of Sturgeon for the areas of concern - so basically northern England, with some movement “guidance” thrown in too. I wouldn’t be surprised to see masks in offices.

 

[takno]

Unless their "contract" with SAGE says they cannot speak to the media when I last looked there was a free press in this country.

Plus there is also an "Independent" SAGE group that has both SAGE and non SAGE members. You proposing gagging them as well?

If possible yes. Independent SAGE are an absolute farce.

 

[Yew]

I wouldn’t be surprised to see masks in offices.

I'd like to reiterate my comment about the government taking instruction from Field Marshall Haig. Once more over the top!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Oct 2020 ==

If possible yes. Independent SAGE are an absolute farce.

Indeed, independent they may be, but they are certainly not diverse.

 

[Mag_seven]

Indeed, independent they may be, but they are certainly not diverse.

Independent SAGE seem to work on the principle that any government restriction implemented is not strict enough. If they were genuinely independent we would see some criticism of government measures as being too strict.

 

[DelayRepay]

My money’s on basically a copy of Sturgeon for the areas of concern - so basically northern England, with some movement “guidance” thrown in too. I wouldn’t be surprised to see masks in offices.

There will be masks somewhere - every new announcement seems to include a slight extension of the mask wearing rules!

I am glad I went to visit my mum who lives in the north last week - I doubt I'll be allowed to go again for a little while. 9

 

[C J Snarzell]

My money’s on basically a copy of Sturgeon for the areas of concern - so basically northern England, with some movement “guidance” thrown in too. I wouldn’t be surprised to see masks in offices.

Basically 'dry' venues - alcohol only being sold in off licences and supermarkets. Sturgeon's approach is targeted on the 'revellers' who frequent the pubs/bars who have no respect for social distancing.

Alcohol sales were completely stopped in Ireland when the national lockdown was started, but they had to do a massive U-turn when hospital beds began to fill up with alcohol dependant patients who could not get their 'fix'.

I would think Boris will be following a similar approach to Sturgeon. Whether places like Weatherspoons will stay open for food & warm drinks will yet to be seen.

The mask issue is going a bit OTT. There is some suggestion they may be enforced to be worn in work places like offices. I assume alot of people wear them anyway when walking along corridors and moving across open floor space. Is there some suggestion they may have to be worn while seated at desks?

I also think Boris may re-enforce the penalty issue - some people are simply not deterred by the fines of breaching restrictions. Maybe Boris has tougher measures up his sleeve for the rule breakers.

CJ

 

[SuspectUsual]

Basically 'dry' venues - alcohol only being sold in off licences and supermarkets. Sturgeon's approach is targeted on the 'revellers' who frequent the pubs/bars who have no respect for social distancing.

So all the drinking moved to domestic premises where monitoring is nigh on impossible? Fantastic

 

[Crossover]

I think some of the increase in cases is down to "Freshers Flu"

This isn't actually flu, but the combination of a large number of new students all arriving at a university campus from all over the country and abroad.


See the Wikipedia article below, which suggests that an increase in respiratory illnesses happens around this time every year, it is just that this year COVD-19 is another virus that is in circulation.

Note the bit that I have outlined in bold, which suggests that the outbreak will peak a few weeks after arrival at university.

So if we keep the current measures in place we should expect to see the increase level off fairly soon.

Freshers' flu - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freshers'_Flu#cite_note-5

I would be inclined to agree and have posted myself about similar previously. I had it at the start of all 3 years of my time at uni - my gut feeling is that unis may be one of the larger inflators of numbers (though I would stress for the avoidance of forum doubt, that this is not evidence based)

 

[C J Snarzell]

So all the drinking moved to domestic premises where monitoring is nigh on impossible? Fantastic

I know mate - it'll just push alcohol consumption indoors with people getting together anyway in their homes, while the licencing industry just dissolves further into meltdown.

Even if some restaurants and venues remain open, it'll be a massive loss of business. How many people are going to go for a meal knowing they can't enjoy a glass of wine or a pint of lager with it?

CJ

 

[trainophile]

I know mate - it'll just push alcohol consumption indoors with people getting together anyway in their homes, while the licencing industry just dissolves further into meltdown.

Even if some restaurants and venues remain open, it'll be a massive loss of business. How many people are going to go for a meal knowing they can't enjoy a glass of wine or a pint of lager with it?

CJ

They could perhaps introduce a modest corkage charge (say a couple of quid) and permit people to take their own wine to have with their meal.

 

[adc82140]

Independent SAGE seem to work on the principle that any government restriction implemented is not strict enough. If they were genuinely independent we would see some criticism of government measures as being too strict.

Independent SAGE are a group of people considered too left field to be in the regular SAGE. So they'll have their own SAGE. With Blackjack. And hookers (let's see who watches Futurama here!)

Forbidding SAGE members to speak to the media has nothing to do with freedom of the press. Many jobs have that clause written in to it. I could go to the press, bill myself as a senior front line health professional with two decades experience and therefore some sort of authority and speak a whole load of twaddle. But if I did, I'd quite rightly be given my marching orders.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

Coronavirus: Liverpool faces 'tier three' lockdown - pubs, bars and gyms expected to close

The mayor of Liverpool city region says "a deal isn't a deal until it is agreed" as details of expected restrictions emerge.

news.sky.com

Liverpool's leaders have been told the city region will go into the strictest tier of England's new lockdown system - and the new measures could last up to six months, Sky News understands.

Pubs, bars, gyms, casinos and bookmakers are expected to close, while restaurants, schools and universities would remain open.

The city region leaders have held a call with central government and asked for a monthly review of the situation.

The move has yet to be signed off by the prime minister, who is due to unveil the new three-tier system of restrictions on Monday.

Leaders are expecting a financial contribution for track and trace systems and enforcement, but discussions on funding for local government are ongoing.

Manchester is also likely to be in the highest tier, but five of its MPs have warned the prime minister and chancellor about the "devastating impact" of shutting pubs and restaurants.

In a letter, they said "jobs, livelihoods and businesses" would be damaged and that it would lead to more illegal gatherings.

Interesting that pubs will have to close, but restaurants won't. Sounds like the "am I a café or a restaurant?" argument we had in Scotland a few days ago.

 

[VauxhallandI]

If they increase the mask wearing then I expect to see them wearing them in the House of Commons chamber.

 

[adc82140]

You've got to love Sky News. "Up to 6 months". Well yes, that's when the current covid legislation expires. So I suppose theoretically restrictions could blast that long, but it doesn't mean they will. Putting it in the headline is downright silly.

 

[duncanp]

You've got to love Sky News. "Up to 6 months". Well yes, that's when the current covid legislation expires. So I suppose theoretically restrictions could blast that long, but it doesn't mean they will. Putting it in the headline is downright silly.

I think the idea is that anywhere in Tier 3 will have their restrictions reviewed after 1 month, and at regular intervals thereafter.

If the North of England is closed down over Christmas, and London & the South East remains open, I can't imagine it will go down well, and Boris Johnson can kiss goodbye to all those "Red Wall" seats at the next election.

Maybe he is planning to quit as Prime Minister before the next election, so he doesn't give a flying f*** about the election result.