Further Restrictions Announced by Johnson (22/09)

[Bletchleyite]

I just hope any potential restrictions announced tomorrow aren't too harsh on household visits - I have ONE friend that comes round every Saturday and at the moment it is about the only thing I can look forward to - having worked at home all week it becomes a bit cabin fever to then spend the weekend alone!

I can't really see them getting rid of single-person support bubbles.

 

[philosopher]

If universities are the issue then why are we even worrying about it?

If universities are the issue, then they should send the students home and continue learning online, with half the fees refunded. Sending students to Uni seems to have resulted in the worst option both in terms of controlling the virus and student’s mental health.

 

[Bletchleyite]

If universities are the issue, then they should send the students home and continue learning online, with half the fees refunded. Sending students to Uni seems to have resulted in the worst option both in terms of controlling the virus and student’s mental health.

You can't now send them home as that would seed more spread in their home towns. It's too late now. They need to be kept there and as away from the rest of society as possible while it goes round and dies out.

 

[takno]

Most Scottish students do start University at 18. 2 years of nursery (start at the age of 3, usually), 7 years primary school, 6 years secondary school, then onto FE. You can leave secondary school at the end of 4th or 5th year, though.

I know people who got the required results at Higher, left at the end of 5th year, worked for a year then started Uni at the same time as their mates. I know of very few people starting Uni at 17 (unless they started nursery at 2 and a half)

I'd say about a third of the Scottish students I know went to Uni at 17, hardly any of them having bothered with Advanced Highers. No idea if that's variable over time or uni - most of the people I know would have started undergrad between about 2003 and 2010.

 

[Jamesrob637]

All I'll say is this:

Lock down everywhere or nowhere beyond its current restrictions.

 

[Howardh]

All I'll say is this:

Lock down everywhere or nowhere beyond its current restrictions.

In 3 - 4 weeks the "government" has the problem of what to do if the following lockdown failed - maybe because they hit the wrong target? That is the middle of November, 5 weeks shy of Xmas and New Year.

At that point they have to make a decision, lock down properly again - for 4 weeks and then open up at Xmas and have cases soar again in the new year, or continue the lockdown over and beyond Xmas?

Over to you, Dominic Boris.

Personally I just hope Manchester Airport is in the same red zone as Bolton so I can get to the airport and escape to Gibraltar - at least for afew days. Although I wish now I'd taken the flight to Ibiza for a week as we will be in quarantine anyway when I should have returned.

 

[kez19]

If they increase the mask wearing then I expect to see them wearing them in the House of Commons chamber.

Its one thing I am getting more annoyed at of hearing is regarding wearing masks outside, this is where they can take a hike, i'll happy walk about in the fresh air than be told that I must mask up basically everywhere. I wear a mask in work (no qualms there), but in my own time I rather being able to breathe air than be told to mask up more outside.

Actually they should also do this in all devolved governments as well, implement them into to those places, don't see why the public has to put up with them indoors and they don't, so much for lead by example?

 

[duncanp]

The BBC are now reporting that the Liverpool City Region is going to be the only place in England that will be put into Tier 3 restrictions when the scheme is announced tomorrow.

Obviously we will have to wait and see what Boris says, but I don't suppose Dominic Cummings has written his speech yet, nor has it been signed off by Chris Whitty, Patrick Vallance and Professor Pantsdown.

 

[kez19]

In 3 - 4 weeks the "government" has the problem of what to do if the following lockdown failed - maybe because they hit the wrong target? That is the middle of November, 5 weeks shy of Xmas and New Year.

At that point they have to make a decision, lock down properly again - for 4 weeks and then open up at Xmas and have cases soar again in the new year, or continue the lockdown over and beyond Xmas?

Over to you, Dominic Boris.

Personally I just hope Manchester Airport is in the same red zone as Bolton so I can get to the airport and escape to Gibraltar - at least for afew days. Although I wish now I'd taken the flight to Ibiza for a week as we will be in quarantine anyway when I should have returned.

For me the point even if they did consider lockdown again is has nothing been learnt since the first one I guess not? Cause a blip cases will go down but then will pick up again, why not to an extent just let it run its course? I don't like comparing it to cold or flu but for me just for the sake of letting it be done naturally, let it work through the country and it'll eventually die out (I would hope here), this stop starting isn't resolving anything its causing more issues but again what do I know we have to follow the science from these top scientists and politicians remember?

 

[Richard Scott]

For me the point even if they did consider lockdown again is has nothing been learnt since the first one I guess not? Cause a blip cases will go down but then will pick up again, why not to an extent just let it run its course? I don't like comparing it to cold or flu but for me just for the sake of letting it be done naturally, let it work through the country and it'll eventually die out (I would hope here), this stop starting isn't resolving anything its causing more issues but again what do I know we have to follow the science from these top scientists and politicians remember?

Which is what many of us have been saying for ages. When are those keen on lockdown going to realise you cannot control a virus no matter how many times you try and say it in a slogan?

 

[Howardh]

For me the point even if they did consider lockdown again is has nothing been learnt since the first one I guess not? Cause a blip cases will go down but then will pick up again, why not to an extent just let it run its course? I don't like comparing it to cold or flu but for me just for the sake of letting it be done naturally, let it work through the country and it'll eventually die out (I would hope here), this stop starting isn't resolving anything its causing more issues but again what do I know we have to follow the science from these top scientists and politicians remember?

I keep reading "don't kill granny".
Let's look at that further. You are 80, at home and managing without assistance, how are they gonna catch covid? OK, if they go out and about they face the same risks as everyone else, although it could be fatal to them. But if the distancing, the masks, the group limitations work (they either do, do partially, or don't - who knows?) then they should be able to catch a bus, go round a shop and have a brew in a cafe safely.
Therefore the only way they catch covid is if their family (and grand-family) bring it to their house, ie they hug and kiss, sit very close for long periods, and I've no doubt many have grandkids staying over.
So is the household the breeding ground? I don't know - but I've been out pubbing, kept myself to myself and I still don't think I've contracted Covid.

 

[kez19]

I keep reading "don't kill granny".
Let's look at that further. You are 80, at home and managing without assistance, how are they gonna catch covid? OK, if they go out and about they face the same risks as everyone else, although it could be fatal to them. But if the distancing, the masks, the group limitations work (they either do, do partially, or don't - who knows?) then they should be able to catch a bus, go round a shop and have a brew in a cafe safely.
Therefore the only way they catch covid is if their family (and grand-family) bring it to their house, ie they hug and kiss, sit very close for long periods, and I've no doubt many have grandkids staying over.
So is the household the breeding ground? I don't know - but I've been out pubbing, kept myself to myself and I still don't think I've contracted Covid.

I can't even answer that and thats from a personal view as I did have COVID back in June (mild symptoms), I wouldn't be surprised if that theory is a scapegoat too! (like I say we have scientists they should know where it goes and is transmitting but they don't its all guessing in my book!), I would have probably believed that back when I got infected with it but now I just don't know), I just think its just being made up as it goes along, throw someone in the wind and that the media take the bait then run with it, yet strange why none of the media has ever stopped to think of the bigger picture (par some are beginning too)

Lets just say the other theory in terms of hospitality (at the moment), so does COVID stop going around after 6pm in some areas and others after 10pm?, thats how stupid it is!

 

[Domh245]

The problem is when one of them goes home and it gets into the family. While unsavoury, the idea of them being strongly discouraged from going home for Christmas has a lot of mileage.

I would agree about the danger of it being passed from students to other family members, but the solution to that is to stop them going home for the next month or so, but by Christmas anyone who was going to have caught it will have (or rather, would have in a more idealised world without lockdowns artificially slowing the spread). In much the same way that fresher's flu had people feeling grotty for the first couple of weeks of term but by the middle of term at least, everyone was good as normal health (bar the usual seasonal colds) had universities been allowed to operate as good as normal, we'd have seen a few weeks of huge transmission followed by everything returning to normal

I wonder if there have ever been any studies done about fresher's flu type seasonal variation in university cities at large (ie are there significant spikes in the larger population of a city in October/January) - would have been helpful for understanding the risk of students spreading COVID to the wider community (which FWIW, I don't think would have been a particularly high risk)

 

[kez19]

Which is what many of us have been saying for ages. When are those keen on lockdown going to realise you cannot control a virus no matter how many times you try and say it in a slogan?

I'm guessing the ones calling for another lockdown are experts and with the constant telling us to wear a mask, the pushing or as I heard in the media of supposedly having mask wearing outside is pushing the boat (even for me) but I ain't going to wear a mask if I am out for a walk or let alone just going to my local ASDA/Sainsburys you can bug off, Yet in terms of masks didn't hear anyone telling us this if we had colds/flus but with this lets go OTT though.

 

[Richard Scott]

I'm guessing the ones calling for another lockdown are experts and with the constant telling us to wear a mask, the pushing or as I heard in the media of supposedly having mask wearing outside is pushing the boat (even for me) but I ain't going to wear a mask if I am out for a walk or let alone just going to my local ASDA/Sainsburys you can bug off, Yet in terms of masks didn't hear anyone telling us this if we had colds/flus but with this lets go OTT though.

'Experts' - would love to know what qualifies someone as an expert. We seem to have had a lot of these over the past 6 months but often they don't agree with each other. I'm somewhat dubious about what these experts have to say.

 

[MattA7]

I’m not sure if this is accurate but it appear most of England will be under level 3 of the lockdown restrictions

 

[NorthOxonian]

That graphic can be totally discredited. By all accounts, 100 per 100,000 cases will be the cut off for Level 2, and Level 3 much higher than that. Even most of the red areas on that map will have no change in restrictions.

 

[HSTEd]

50 would be a truly nutty level to set it at, then again, I think the whole plan is nutty to start with.

 

[brad465]

'Experts' - would love to know what qualifies someone as an expert. We seem to have had a lot of these over the past 6 months but often they don't agree with each other. I'm somewhat dubious about what these experts have to say.

The thing I particularly hate around the subject of experts is, and we know how much this has been a problem with the B-word, people effectively take the terms "expert" and "know-it-all" (or omniscient) to be synonymous, so people assume we should not trust experts because if they're wrong they are not experts, when in reality no-one knows everything, but experts have better knowledge on their field than others.

With regards to the Covid impacts, especially economically, it's almost impossible to get forecasts/predictions correct, so many who are experts in the related fields are likely to get things wrong often, but as this is an unprecedented situation that shouldn't see them discredited I don't think, although less so the more time passes and thus more we learn.

 

[trebor79]

What makes you think that? Students in halls live under licence, not tenancy. The licence will give them right of access at any time.

When I was in halls, arranged as flats of 6 with shared kitchen, it was effectively a tenancy. They posted a notice on the front door 2 days in advance of the fortnightly cleaning and made clear that this was to comply with the law around entering the tenants property.
Didn't stop one of the porters from bursting in on the girls to "check the plumbing" in the en suite bathrooms...

 

[Yew]

Students are generally intelligent enough to be able to weigh up consequences, though.

Weren't they promised "significant normality by november"?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Weren't they promised "significant normality by november"?

I suspect, again, that they're intelligent enough to know that there's no way anyone can promise an end date.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

'Experts' - would love to know what qualifies someone as an expert. We seem to have had a lot of these over the past 6 months but often they don't agree with each other. I'm somewhat dubious about what these experts have to say.

I'd imagine years of experience and knowledge in a relevant, directly related field..... Jonathan Van-Tam has 30+ years of expertise in epidemiology.

 

[trebor79]

You can't now send them home as that would seed more spread in their home towns. It's too late now. They need to be kept there and as away from the rest of society as possible while it goes round and dies out.

Indeed. They aren't likely to come into contact with any grannies. Send them home and they might.
Notable that the infection rates in the student hotspots are now levelling off, and even falling in places like Manchester.
Hospitalisations and "cases" generally also seem to be levelling off.
No doubt the government will in a few weeks spin a "success" from whatever nonsense is introduced tomorrow

Just had a zoom catch up with my uni mates. Pretty much all of us agreed that it would be better for the government to provide clear information so that all of us, grannies included can make our own decisions on how to live our lives and manage risk.
It's very very odd that covid had become since special case that the government needs to obsess over and try and prevent every last infection regardless of cost.

 

[102 fan]

I’m not sure if this is accurate but it appear most of England will be under level 3 of the lockdown restrictions

View attachment 84549

Am I alone in thinking 0.05 % of the areas population is very low to be introducing restrictions.
And why are we now talking about X in 100000, when this wasn't the guide at the start?

 

[trebor79]

I'd imagine years of experience and knowledge in a relevant, directly related field..... Jonathan Van-Tam has 30+ years of expertise in epidemiology.

But really epidemiology is rather academic. It should be used to inform policy, not define the policy.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Oct 2020 ==

Am I alone in thinking 0.05 % of the areas population is very low to be introducing restrictions.
And why are we now talking about X in 100000, when this wasn't the guide at the start?

Different sources seem to report different numbers for "infection rate". It can be daily, or over a period of time like 7 days.
But your point is valid, it's ludicrous to be taking these actions for what is usually a mild illness on such tiny numbers.

 

[Busaholic]

I do wonder if there’s an element to Khan that’s simply destructive - in that he would quite happily see bad things happen if it gave him the opportunity to blame Boris.

I can’t see any rational reason for him seeming to want London back in lockdown.

Completely agree with you that he seems completely focussed on power without really knowing what he wants to do once he gets it. I wish they’d just abolish the Mayor of London completely - none of them have really been up to much, Ken I had a sneaking respect for in that he did deliver quite a few things (even if his politics is absolutely not my cup of tea), but the anti-semetism has trashed any reputation he might have had. Boris and Khan have nothing been useless.

I agree the Conservative candidate is a car-crash.

Thankfully I don’t think Boris is paying any attention to Khan. He’ll have his nose rubbed in it again over TFL funding, and then will be tossed aside by Boris like a piece of dirt on the shoe. The northern mayors will be *much* harder to ignore though.

I've always been anti the all-powerful Mayor idea, a Prescottian idea indulged by Blair to keep Prescott onside (though God knows why). The selection by Labour of the solid but unimaginative Frank Dobson as their first Mayoral candidate showed they weren't really interested in the success of the project. The confusion about responsibility for the Met Police has dogged the post ever since, with no signs it will ever be resolved. Khan's total change of mind over Heathrow expansion plans proved he'd bend with the wind only a short time after taking up the post, and his refusal to take any responsibility for the Crossrail fiasco (albeit his wrongdoing is minor compared to others) shows his lack of backbone.

 

[HSTEd]

I'd imagine years of experience and knowledge in a relevant, directly related field..... Jonathan Van-Tam has 30+ years of expertise in epidemiology.

Yes, but noone in modern epidemiological history has attempted anything like what is being attempted now.
This is entirely uncharted terrain.

 

[kez19]

'Experts' - would love to know what qualifies someone as an expert. We seem to have had a lot of these over the past 6 months but often they don't agree with each other. I'm somewhat dubious about what these experts have to say.

Then you also have the social media experts (I should have included this too) and then you also have Piers Morgan.

 

[Yew]

Yes, but noone in modern epidemiological history has attempted anything like what is being attempted now.
This is entirely uncharted terrain.

Yet this approach is apparently conventional, and Swedens lack of lockdown is "controversial"