Further Restrictions Announced by Johnson (22/09)

[brad465]

Burnham seems to be becoming more the voice of reason these days. Not sure the same can be said of Khan.

Yes Burnham is very pro-economic support, having said on Question Time last Thursday that he will "not accept restrictions without support", and argues the latest announcement isn't enough. He also stood up for the arts and argued that if when we get through this much of the arts and hospitality are gone, then "Covid's won".

I don't think he's completely anti-current restrictions yet, while the life support he advocates can't go on forever, but I believe he acknowledges the current levels are not working and very much has the economy at heart.

 

[yorksrob]

Yes Burnham is very pro-economic support, having said on Question Time last Thursday that he will "not accept restrictions without support", and argues the latest announcement isn't enough. He also stood up for the arts and argued that if when we get through this much of the arts and hospitality are gone, then "Covid's won".

I don't think he's completely anti-current restrictions yet, while the life support he advocates can't go on forever, but I believe he acknowledges the current levels are not working and very much has the economy at heart.

Indeed. If he (and other Northern leaders) can't be against restrictions, they are right to insist on full support for the affected businesses.

And that in turn might encourage central government to evaluate those restrictions more critically, if they are forced to pay for the damage.

 

[Richard Scott]

Indeed. If he (and other Northern leaders) can't be against restrictions, they are right to insist on full support for the affected businesses.

And that in turn might encourage central government to evaluate those restrictions more critically, if they are forced to pay for the damage.

Especially as doubt central government can really afford it. I really hate to think what our taxes will be like in 5/10 years.

 

[kristiang85]

That seems to be the rumour floating round London too. I'm not sure where this is coming from, as that doesn't *seem* to be the intention at all, just targetted closures in specific areas. Khan seems to want London included for some reason, which to me feels like madness as London must surely already be suffering from the near complete absence of daily commuters from outside. Central London is still a ghost town in places.

I don't know what Khan's game is. In London, positive tests are nowhere near the north, and admission to hospital with COVID is flat. He seems hellbent on accellerating the demise of many businesses in London, probably to blame it on the government later.

Only a couple of weeks ago he was supporting the curfew and calling for it to happen, then earlier this week he changed his tune on that. But then he comes out with lockdown nonsense.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It does seem like measures are premature, and more about Borises desire to 'beat' the virus, than stopping the NHS being overwhelmed.

To be fair the NHS is already close to being overwhelmed in the North, and remember that admissions lag cases by about a week, so the higher figure in a week's time is already "locked in".

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 10 Oct 2020 ==

Burnham seems to be becoming more the voice of reason these days. Not sure the same can be said of Khan.

Burnham has always been to some extent a voice of reason, even when he's been calling for stricter restrictions. He always explains himself well and seems genuinely committed to the good of Greater Manchester and its inhabitants. I've listened to interviews with him a number of times and he's always come across as articulate and convincing.

The Liverpool mayor isn't *bad* but seems to live rather in his shadow (just as, like it or not, the city does too).

 

[Richard Scott]

To be fair the NHS is already close to being overwhelmed in the North, and remember that admissions lag cases by about a week, so the higher figure in a week's time is already "locked in".

Where is the evidence for this?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Where is the evidence for this?

Covid: What is the risk of the NHS being overwhelmed?

Infections and hospitalisations are all rising - how ready is the NHS?

www.bbc.co.uk

.. there are now nearly 3,000 patients in hospital with Covid.

That represents about 3% of hospital beds.

But given the reduced amount of activity - latest figures suggest only about half the number of routine operations are being done than was the case before the pandemic - there is still plenty of available space.

The latest occupancy figures suggest there were around 30,000 beds unoccupied across the UK in the summer - three times as many as was normally the case before the pandemic hit.

...for one.

 

[Richard Scott]

Covid: What is the risk of the NHS being overwhelmed?

Infections and hospitalisations are all rising - how ready is the NHS?

www.bbc.co.uk

...for one.

Such a reliable source. Afraid take most of BBC reporting with a large pinch of salt now. To be honest it doesn't actually say that hospitals are close to be overwhelmed at the moment anymore than would be expected at this time of year so not actually taking that as evidence.

 

[HSTEd]

Covid: What is the risk of the NHS being overwhelmed?

Infections and hospitalisations are all rising - how ready is the NHS?

www.bbc.co.uk

...for one.

The one that says there are still 30,000 empty beds, ten times the current number of hospitalised coronavirus cases?

 

[trainophile]

The one that says there are still 30,000 empty beds, ten times the current number of hospitalised coronavirus cases?

Is that without de-mothballing the Nightingale hospitals?

 

[HSTEd]

Is that without de-mothballing the Nightingale hospitals?

I don't know, thats just what the article says. I doubt it includes the Nightingale hospitals because that is still only 25% of normal NHS bed capacity.

 

[317 forever]

I wouldn't bank on the opposition. Worse than the Tories in all this.

Neither would I. They do promote the isolate in test, trace & isolate even more than the government.

 

[yorksrob]

Neither would I. They do promote the isolate in test, trace & isolate even more than the government.

They're right to support the test/trace system. I disagree with the imposition of ever more draconian restrictions on peoples every day lives.

 

[kristiang85]

But the NHS is overwhelmed every winter - it is a political football that has been kicked about every winter of my life. So full beds are no new thing, and I don't remember the economy being destroyed and all other illnesses sidelined for it in the past.

 

[Chester1]

That seems to be the rumour floating round London too. I'm not sure where this is coming from, as that doesn't *seem* to be the intention at all, just targetted closures in specific areas. Khan seems to want London included for some reason, which to me feels like madness as London must surely already be suffering from the near complete absence of daily commuters from outside. Central London is still a ghost town in places.

I don't know what Khan's game is. In London, positive tests are nowhere near the north, and admission to hospital with COVID is flat. He seems hellbent on accellerating the demise of many businesses in London, probably to blame it on the government later.

Only a couple of weeks ago he was supporting the curfew and calling for it to happen, then earlier this week he changed his tune on that. But then he comes out with lockdown nonsense.

I have been in Manchester city centre today and last weekend. Its as busy as a normal October weekend. That tells you something about what people really think about more restrictions. They may tell pollsters they support more measures and they may believe what they are saying but they are voting with their feet. Manchester's construction boom seems to have continued without much of a pause. I believe Birmingham is similar. Its not a good time for London to shoot itself in the foot.

I will be having a covid test this week... To go on holiday. A week away from the circus should be good! Testing on arrivals for most parts of Italy (+ other places such Madeira) is free to encourage international tourists to visit safely. It will be ironic if I can't cross the "border" into Cheshire or Lancashire but I am free to leave the UK.

 

[NorthOxonian]

I have been in Manchester city centre today and last weekend. Its as busy as a normal October weekend. That tells you something about what people really think about more restrictions. They may tell pollsters they support more measures and they may believe what they are saying but they are voting with their feet. Manchester's construction boom seems to have continued without much of a pause. I believe Birmingham is similar. Its not a good time for London to shoot itself in the foot.

I will be having a covid test this week... To go on holiday. A week away from the circus should be good! Testing on arrivals for most parts of Italy (+ other places such Madeira) is free to encourage international tourists to visit safely. It will be ironic if I can't cross the "border" into Cheshire or Lancashire but I am free to leave the UK.

Have to say, other than face coverings and having to queue to get into pubs, my day trip to the Isle of Wight and Portsmouth today was indistinguishable from normal. In particular, Southsea's evening economy seems to be absolutely thriving.

 

[ChrisC]

I will be having a covid test this week... To go on holiday. A week away from the circus should be good! Testing on arrivals for most parts of Italy (+ other places such Madeira) is free to encourage international tourists to visit safely. It will be ironic if I can't cross the "border" into Cheshire or Lancashire but I am free to leave the UK.

If travel involving crossing county borders and banning overnight stays is imposed throughout large areas of the North of England and the Midlands that will be the end of many UK hotels and other holiday accommodation. Many have just about managed to survive following being allowed to reopen at the beginning of July but are operating with reduced numbers of guests and greatly reduced staff levels. Many will be looking towards the October half term week as being their last fully booked busy week of the year and will be relying upon the income from that week to survive. Delaying making any announcements until Monday or Tuesday is just creating an even more worrying time when no-one knows whether holidays are on or off.

 

[Sanatogen]

The one that says there are still 30,000 empty beds, ten times the current number of hospitalised coronavirus cases?

Sorry can you point out where it says 30,000 empty beds are still available.

 

[bramling]

I have been in Manchester city centre today and last weekend. Its as busy as a normal October weekend. That tells you something about what people really think about more restrictions. They may tell pollsters they support more measures and they may believe what they are saying but they are voting with their feet. Manchester's construction boom seems to have continued without much of a pause. I believe Birmingham is similar. Its not a good time for London to shoot itself in the foot.

I will be having a covid test this week... To go on holiday. A week away from the circus should be good! Testing on arrivals for most parts of Italy (+ other places such Madeira) is free to encourage international tourists to visit safely. It will be ironic if I can't cross the "border" into Cheshire or Lancashire but I am free to leave the UK.

This is the thing - we hear about how people support restrictions, yet we see scenes like packed beaches, crowded town centres, and of course full-to-bursting restaurants during August.

It does seem increasingly that a subset of people want the restrictions which personally benefit them, which now furlough is finishing seems mainly to centre around the work from homes.

Returning to Khan, I agree with the view expressed here that goodness knows what he is playing at. To me he’s simply unhinged. I’ve always thought of him as a rather dirty politician - the “The Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, has done...” posters which we’ve seen on the Underground over the last few years are an example, and the bizarre Trump spat was simply odd.

 

[takno]

This is the thing - we hear about how people support restrictions, yet we see scenes like packed beaches, crowded town centres, and of course full-to-bursting restaurants during August.

It does seem increasingly that a subset of people want the restrictions which personally benefit them, which now furlough is finishing seems mainly to centre around the work from homes.

Returning to Khan, I agree with the view expressed here that goodness knows what he is playing at. To me he’s simply unhinged. I’ve always thought of him as a rather dirty politician - the “The Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, has done...” posters which we’ve seen on the Underground over the last few years are an example, and the bizarre Trump spat was simply odd.

Khan has been a huge disappointment as mayor. No worse than the last guy, but 100% laser-focused on getting elected, and with no real indication that he knows why he wants to get elected. Sadly the Tory candidate is absolute disaster area, so he's likely to get reelected anyway, but this weird lockdown obsession might tip it away from him.

 

[bramling]

Khan has been a huge disappointment as mayor. No worse than the last guy, but 100% laser-focused on getting elected, and with no real indication that he knows why he wants to get elected. Sadly the Tory candidate is absolute disaster area, so he's likely to get reelected anyway, but this weird lockdown obsession might tip it away from him.

I do wonder if there’s an element to Khan that’s simply destructive - in that he would quite happily see bad things happen if it gave him the opportunity to blame Boris.

I can’t see any rational reason for him seeming to want London back in lockdown.

Completely agree with you that he seems completely focussed on power without really knowing what he wants to do once he gets it. I wish they’d just abolish the Mayor of London completely - none of them have really been up to much, Ken I had a sneaking respect for in that he did deliver quite a few things (even if his politics is absolutely not my cup of tea), but the anti-semetism has trashed any reputation he might have had. Boris and Khan have nothing been useless.

I agree the Conservative candidate is a car-crash.

Thankfully I don’t think Boris is paying any attention to Khan. He’ll have his nose rubbed in it again over TFL funding, and then will be tossed aside by Boris like a piece of dirt on the shoe. The northern mayors will be *much* harder to ignore though.

 

[takno]

I wish they’d just abolish the Mayor of London completely - none of them have really been up to much, Ken I had a sneaking respect for in that he did deliver quite a few things (even if his politics is absolutely not my cup of tea), but the anti-semetism has trashed any reputation he might have had. Boris and Khan have nothing been useless.

The model of an all-powerful mayor and an irrelevant assembly hasn't stood the test of time. Sadly the Scottish government is slowly turning into a one-woman show in the same mould. Devolution should have been done with powerful parliaments and strong constitutional safeguards to maintain them. All of which is very off-topic I guess

 

[DelayRepay]

This is the thing - we hear about how people support restrictions, yet we see scenes like packed beaches, crowded town centres, and of course full-to-bursting restaurants during August.

It does seem increasingly that a subset of people want the restrictions which personally benefit them, which now furlough is finishing seems mainly to centre around the work from homes.

I agree, I think when people answer the pollsters questions, they are actually mean they support restrictions that affect other people.

My anecdotal evidence (mainly based on Facebook) is that even the most vocal supporters of more restrictions are not actually committed to following them. On my local Facebook page there are tow parallel discussions running and it seems that some of the people who believe schools should be closed again are the same people that are still planning to go Trick or Treating on Halloween.

 

[philosopher]

I do wonder if there’s an element to Khan that’s simply destructive - in that he would quite happily see bad things happen if it gave him the opportunity to blame Boris.

I can’t see any rational reason for him seeming to want London back in lockdown.

Completely agree with you that he seems completely focussed on power without really knowing what he wants to do once he gets it. I wish they’d just abolish the Mayor of London completely - none of them have really been up to much, Ken I had a sneaking respect for in that he did deliver quite a few things (even if his politics is absolutely not my cup of tea), but the anti-semetism has trashed any reputation he might have had. Boris and Khan have nothing been useless.

I agree the Conservative candidate is a car-crash.

Thankfully I don’t think Boris is paying any attention to Khan. He’ll have his nose rubbed in it again over TFL funding, and then will be tossed aside by Boris like a piece of dirt on the shoe. The northern mayors will be *much* harder to ignore though.

I reckon Sadiq Khan takes London’s recovery for granted, hence why he is so in favour of new lockdown measures. To me lockdowns, particularly long lasting ones could be existential threat to large cities, hence I find this attitude puzzling. The northern mayors remember when their cities in the 1980’s were quite troubled so are far more reluctant to push for additional measures.

At least Sadiq Khan does not seem to be quite in favour for lockdowns as New York‘s mayor Bill de Blasio who has already lockdowned certain parts of New York City for quite a small rise in infections.

 

[duncanp]

I see at least one "scientist" has said that a new nationa lockdown is a possibility, before Boris Johnson has even announced the latest restrictions.

Covid: Second national lockdown possible, says top UK scientist

The UK is at a "precarious point" as coronavirus cases continue to rise, warns Prof Peter Horby.

www.bbc.co.uk

I do wish these scientists would shut up and wind their necks in a bit.

Suggesting another national lockdown is a possibility will send people's anxiety levels through the roof and adversely affect their mental health.

But we should at least give the measures that are going to be announced tomorrow a chance to work,

The latest data on infection rates shows that the lowest percentage increases are in the North East and the North West of England, whereas the highest percentage increases are in the South West, South East and London.

If infection rates in London overtake those in the North West, and yet extra restrictions are not imposed on London, that is going to be politically very difficult for the government, and people will remember that at the next elections.

Another national coronavirus lockdown is a possibility and we have to do what we can to avoid that at all costs, a leading UK scientist has said.

Prof Peter Horby said the UK was at a "precarious point" as Covid-19 cases and hospital admissions continue to rise.
It comes after England's deputy chief medical officer warned the country was at a "tipping point".
Ministers say their local approach to restrictions is the right way forward.
The prime minister is expected to announce tougher local restrictions on Monday.
In a statement to MPs, Boris Johnson will outline plans for a three-tier system, where each region in England is placed into a tier based on the severity of cases in the area.
Later on Sunday, he will hold a call with cabinet ministers to update them on the next steps.
Across the UK, the R number - the average number of people each infected person passes the virus on to - is now estimated between 1.2 and 1.5. Anything above 1.0 means cases are increasing.
On Saturday, 15,166 people in the UK were reported to have tested positive for coronavirus - up 1,302 on Friday's figure, according to the latest figures on the government's dashboard. There were a further 81 deaths - a decrease of six on Friday.
'Difficult choices'
Prof Horby, chair of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag) and a government adviser, said the "critical mission" now was to protect the NHS to avoid non-essential hospital services being cancelled, as many were when the UK went into its first nationwide lockdown in March.
"We really need to provide care to everybody - those with Covid and those without," he said. "The way to do that is to keep the numbers down."
He warned that some hospitals in the north of England were already coming under pressure and it might not be long before intensive care beds fill up.
"I am afraid we are going to have to make some very difficult choices and act very quickly," he added.

Prof Horby said a surge in cases in the North was partly because people were coming into contact with more people than in other parts of the country.
He also told the BBC's Andrew Marr Show that in the months before the increase in cases, numbers had not dropped to as low a level in the North as in other parts of England.
Prof Horby said the country must accept more stringent measures to drive down transmission of the virus.
In an earlier statement, England's deputy chief medical officer Prof Jonathan Van-Tam said the seasons were "against us" and the country was running into a "headwind" ahead of the winter months.
He warned more deaths would follow a rise in cases over coming weeks and urged people to limit social contact.
It is expected that parts of the north of England and the Midlands will be placed under tougher measures as part of the prime minister's announcement.
Liverpool, where there are currently 600 cases per 100,000 people, is expected to be placed under the most severe set of restrictions, with all the city's pubs forced to close.
Pubs and restaurants across the central belt of Scotland closed their doors for at least two weeks on Friday, to try to tackle a rise in cases.

And I see that the ink is hardly dry on the new Scottish restrictions, and yet a minister there has said that there is no guarantee that pubs in the Central Belt will re-open on 26th October, which, sadly, was entirely predictable.

Covid in Scotland: 'No guarantee' pubs will reopen in two weeks

Scotland's hospitality minister defends the current closure of pubs and restaurants as part of Covid restrictions.

www.bbc.co.uk

Scotland's hospitality minister has said there is "no guarantee" that pubs and restaurants across the central belt will reopen in two weeks' time.

The Scottish government ordered their closure on Friday night as part of new Covid-19 restrictions.

Fergus Ewing said he was "acutely aware" of the "very serious, adverse impacts" on the hospitality sector.

But he said the restrictions were "absolutely necessary" and could continue past 25 October.

Mr Ewing told BBC Scotland's Sunday Politics programme: "Were they not in place, the worry is that we may have had to go to something even more stringent.

"The first minister had made it clear that she really wishes to avoid a further lockdown - as does, I believe, the leadership in the other parts of the United Kingdom.

"That is absolutely the case. But there can be no guarantees."



The new restrictions involve licensed premises in Greater Glasgow and Clyde, Lothian, Lanarkshire, Forth Valley and Ayrshire and Arran being closed until 25 October - although they can still serve takeaways.

Hospitality venues in the rest of Scotland are allowed to open, but are only permitted to serve non-alcoholic drinks and food indoors between 06:00 and 18:00.

Licensed premises in these areas are still able to serve alcohol in outdoor areas, such as beer gardens, up to the 22:00 curfew introduced in September.

Image captionFergus Ewing accepted the restrictions were having very serious impacts on the hospitality industry
Reacting to criticism that the hospitality sector had been treated unfairly, Fergus Ewing said the Scottish government was following the best scientific advice.

He said there were "no absolute certainties" when it comes to establishing how a person caught coronavirus.

But he said illegal house parties or hospitality settings "where alcohol is imbibed and inhibitions lax" appeared to be the places where the risks were greatest.

 

[Richard Scott]

I see at least one "scientist" has said that a new nationa lockdown is a possibility, before Boris Johnson has even announced the latest restrictions.

Covid: Second national lockdown possible, says top UK scientist

The UK is at a "precarious point" as coronavirus cases continue to rise, warns Prof Peter Horby.

www.bbc.co.uk

I do wish these scientists would shut up and wind their necks in a bit.

Suggesting another national lockdown is a possibility will send people's anxiety levels through the roof and adversely affect their mental health.

But we should at least give the measures that are going to be announced tomorrow a chance to work,

The latest data on infection rates shows that the lowest percentage increases are in the North East and the North West of England, whereas the highest percentage increases are in the South West, South East and London.

If infection rates in London overtake those in the North West, and yet extra restrictions are not imposed on London, that is going to be politically very difficult for the government, and people will remember that at the next elections.




And I see that the ink is hardly dry on the new Scottish restrictions, and yet a minister there has said that there is no guarantee that pubs in the Central Belt will re-open on 26th October, which, sadly, was entirely predictable.

Covid in Scotland: 'No guarantee' pubs will reopen in two weeks

Scotland's hospitality minister defends the current closure of pubs and restaurants as part of Covid restrictions.

www.bbc.co.uk

So if first lockdown didn't stop spread of virus they think we need to do it again, I'm not a top scientist but know from science if you repeat the same experiment you're likely to get similar results. So more of the same for years, destroying economy, causing mental health to spiral downward, more undetected and untreated illnesses. How positive.

 

[duncanp]

I think some of the increase in cases is down to "Freshers Flu"

This isn't actually flu, but the combination of a large number of new students all arriving at a university campus from all over the country and abroad.


See the Wikipedia article below, which suggests that an increase in respiratory illnesses happens around this time every year, it is just that this year COVD-19 is another virus that is in circulation.

Note the bit that I have outlined in bold, which suggests that the outbreak will peak a few weeks after arrival at university.

So if we keep the current measures in place we should expect to see the increase level off fairly soon.

Freshers' flu - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The most likely cause is the convergence of large numbers of people arriving from all over the world.[3] The poor diet and heavy consumption of alcohol during Freshers' Week is also reported as a cause for many of the illnesses contracted during this time. "Stress, which may be induced by tiredness, combined with a poor diet, late nights and too much alcohol, can weaken the immune system and be a recipe for ill health. All this can make students and staff working with the students more susceptible to infections within their first weeks of term."[4] In addition to this, nearly all university academic years in the UK commence around the end of September or beginning of October, which "marks the start of the annual flu season". The increased susceptibility to illness from late nights, heavy alcohol consumption and stress peaks 2–4 weeks after arrival at university and happens to coincide with the seasonal surge in the outbreaks of colds and influenza in the Northern Hemisphere.[5]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freshers'_Flu#cite_note-5

 

[STINT47]

The BBC article quotes the scientist saying we need to stop the virus at all costs.

Sorry but these costs include increased deaths from other medical conditions like cancer, deteriorating mental health, increase in suicides, increased unemployment, increased homelessness, businesses closing down amongst many others.

Whilst I wish we could eliminate the virus we simply cannot have another national lockdown at any cost. The costs are to high for me.

 

[HSTEd]

Sorry can you point out where it says 30,000 empty beds are still available.

Sorry, that was during the summer.

However it was up by 20,000 beds compared to usual.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Oct 2020 ==

The BBC article quotes the scientist saying we need to stop the virus at all costs.

Well he is a late-middle aged rich person.

He is far more likely to be impacted coronavirus than he is by economic collapse and the like.
He likely has a nice house with a big garden to spend a lockdown in too.

 

[Mag_seven]

But we should at least give the measures that are going to be announced tomorrow a chance to work,

We don't seem to be very good at that - no sooner is the ink dry on one set of restrictions then the media start speculating as to what even tougher restrictions are down the line next. Inevitably some professor is quoted as saying "these restrictions don't go far enough."