Covid : Infection rates v death rates and a possible second wave

[adc82140]

It's time to stop reporting the daily figures and release, say twice a week, the figures by sample date from the previous few days.

Looking at the data based on sample date, there is an overall slow increase in England, Wales and NI, but by no means exponential. Scotland seems to be on a steeper curve.

The dashboard figures for sample date also explicitly state that a person can only ever test positive once. Follow up tests are not counted. The daily figures chart does not state this. Can anyone clarify if the same disregarding of follow up tests happens here as well?

There are also University outbreaks to consider, which will be of little consequence to the health service.

 

[DB]

It's time to stop reporting the daily figures and release, say twice a week, the figures by sample date from the previous few days.

Which might also serve as a brake on knee-jerk reactions from Johnson.

 

[Domh245]

Looks like another reporting backlog day, look at the By Specimen Date and By Date of Death graphs and there is no spike in either.

Doesn't seem overly backlogged to me. The last couple days have both had the 'bulk' of their cases reported at -3 days and indeed today's results (for england at least) are predominantly from Saturday (2895 out of 5651) - just today more cases have been detected than the last few days.


The 14th and 15th on this graph (dark red) show a significant delay, in comparison the 26th (orange) showed a pretty rapid turnaround

 

[30907]

Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

Thanks, I knew I'd seen it somewhere.

 

[LAX54]

so, the figures say 41k have passed away due to Covid, or 'with Covid, but of other causes' yet 1 MILLION Women may have Breast Cancer, due to the Government postponing all appointments, and they may have developed the illness too far for treatment to save the lives of those affected, has the UK got it's priorities all wrong ? and I assume other Countries may well be in a similar situation

on another tack, our neigbour's 12 year old daughter, is now so scared of going out, firstly they think they had C19 back in July, kids went back to school, 3 days later, one was sent home ill, 'possibly C19' mamaged to get as test 5 days later, negative, went back to school, 1 day, been off ever since, she is too scared to go, too scared to go to the shops, so stays indoors or in the garden, and I have no doubt she is one of thousands! we are going to have one screwed up younger generation shortly

 

[trebor79]

so, the figures say 41k have passed away due to Covid, or 'with Covid, but of other causes' yet 1 MILLION Women may have Breast Cancer, due to the Government postponing all appointments, and they may have developed the illness too far for treatment to save the lives of those affected, has the UK got it's priorities all wrong ? and I assume other Countries may well be in a similar situation

Whilst I agree with the sentiment, it's one million screenings that have been missed. Perhaps 8,000 cancers that will be diagnosed late as a consequence.

on another tack, our neigbour's 12 year old daughter, is now so scared of going out, firstly they think they had C19 back in July, kids went back to school, 3 days later, one was sent home ill, 'possibly C19' mamaged to get as test 5 days later, negative, went back to school, 1 day, been off ever since, she is too scared to go, too scared to go to the shops, so stays indoors or in the garden, and I have no doubt she is one of thousands! we are going to have one screwed up younger generation shortly

That's a bit ridiculous, and the parents are at least as culpable as the government and hysterical media.

 

[LAX54]

Whilst I agree with the sentiment, it's one million screenings that have been missed. Perhaps 8,000 cancers that will be diagnosed late as a consequence.

If it is as low as 8000, still 8000 that need not have been in that position

That's a bit ridiculous, and the parents are at least as culpable as the government and hysterical media.

Yes, the parents too, but I said in another post, that a few weeks back I was in a mall, waiting outside a shop for the wife to come out, Mum & Daughter approach, daughter stops dead in her tracks, scared to pass me (undertstandably ! lol ) and another person near by, the look in her eyes were that of terror, if this is what the younger generation are picking up, they are are in for a very hard life !

 

[DelayRepay]

So any (serious) thoughts on what the 5pm press conference is likely to involve? Given yesterday's figures I would not be surprised if we don't see more restrictions... but unusually there doesn't seem to have been anything leaked to the press late last night.

On a separate note, the jumping into the road to avoid someone coming the other way seems to be back, based on my walk to the shop for milk earlier.

 

[Steveoh]

Whilst I agree with the sentiment, it's one million screenings that have been missed. Perhaps 8,000 cancers that will be diagnosed late as a consequence.

Of one type of cancer screening. There are plenty of other cancers with delays in diagnosis too.

Just to add some context to the breast cancer screening program from

Breast screening (mammography)

Breast screening aims to find breast cancers early, when they have the best chance of being successfully treated. Find out about the UK breast screening programme, who has screening, and how you have it.

www.cancerresearchuk.org

Who has breast screening?

Each year more than 2 million women have breast cancer screening in the UK. The NHS Breast Screening Programme invites all women from the age of 50 to 70 for screening every 3 years. This means that some people may not have their first screening mammogram until they are 52 or 53 years.

Benefits of breast screening

Breast cancers found by screening are generally at an early stage. Very early breast cancers are usually easier to treat, may need less treatment, and are more likely to be cured.

The current evidence suggests that breast screening reduces the number of deaths from breast cancer by about 1,300 a year in the UK.

So somewhere in the region of 1/3 to 1/2 of screening appointments have been missed of which something like 500 people might die who wouldn't have died (my extrapolation). Added to that will be those that require more invasive treatment than they would previously have needed due to cancers being diagnosed later and pressure on services we might find more actually die than that.

 

[Scrotnig]

Of one type of cancer screening. There are plenty of other cancers with delays in diagnosis too.

Just to add some context to the breast cancer screening program from

Breast screening (mammography)

Breast screening aims to find breast cancers early, when they have the best chance of being successfully treated. Find out about the UK breast screening programme, who has screening, and how you have it.

www.cancerresearchuk.org

So somewhere in the region of 1/3 to 1/2 of screening appointments have been missed of which something like 500 people might die who wouldn't have died (my extrapolation). Added to that will be those that require more invasive treatment than they would previously have needed due to cancers being diagnosed later and pressure on services we might find more actually die than that.

All you ever get if you highlight any of this to people is "better than dying on a ventilator though hun".

 

[Huntergreed]

7 Scottish deaths reported today, highest since June. I can imagine this will mean more restrictions rather soon sadly.

 

[Crossover]

That's all true I think, plus many people now genuninely don't know what rules apply, with the constant petty changes and the variations which exist in certain parts of the country. And many are sufficiently sick of it all that they can't be bothered to try to keep track.

Agreed - had a discussion with someone this morning about similar. I have totally lost track myself now!

 

[Jamesrob637]

7 Scottish deaths reported today, highest since June. I can imagine this will mean more restrictions rather soon sadly.

But how many were reported on Sunday and Monday? Tuesday always has a slight lag, remember.

 

[matt]

But how many were reported on Sunday and Monday? Tuesday always has a slight lag, remember.

Today is Wednesday.

 

[Ian Cunningham]

But how many were reported on Sunday and Monday? Tuesday always has a slight lag, remember.

In Scotland no deaths were reported on Sunday or Monday (that's deaths with a positive Covid test in the previous 28 days) 1 death on Saturday and 1 last Thursday

If the mood takes you the daily Scottish figures get updated at 1400 here:

Coronavirus (COVID-19): data for Scotland

Information on COVID-19 data sources in Scotland. This page is no longer updated with the latest daily data on COVID-19.

www.gov.scot

And a very comprehensive spreadsheet of data going back to March is kept updated here:

Coronavirus (COVID-19): trends in daily data

Scottish Government past data and trend charts for the daily updates on COVID-19.

www.gov.scot

 

[Richard Scott]

All you ever get if you highlight any of this to people is "better than dying on a ventilator though hun".

Shows their ignorance, give me the ventilator option any day. If anyone has seen a family member die of cancer they certainly wouldn't think that. It's a point a number of us have been making about lack of cancer screenings, now chickens coming home to roost, shame it'll be too late for some poor innocent people. Makes my blood boil.

 

[Class 33]

So any (serious) thoughts on what the 5pm press conference is likely to involve? Given yesterday's figures I would not be surprised if we don't see more restrictions... but unusually there doesn't seem to have been anything leaked to the press late last night.

On a separate note, the jumping into the road to avoid someone coming the other way seems to be back, based on my walk to the shop for milk earlier.

Well, so the press and media are reporting, there are to be no new restrictions announced today in this press conference.

That said, with the combination of Johnson, Whitty and Valance, I'm not expecting anything positive announced from any of them. It will be all doom and gloom I expect. There will be the usual remarks such as "We must keep up social distancing for a long time yet.", "This pandemic is far from over yet. Not by a long shot.", etc.

 

[Richard Scott]

Well, so the press and media are reporting, there are to be no new restrictions announced today in this press conference.

That said, with the combination of Johnson, Whitty and Valance, I'm not expecting anything positive announced from any of them. It will be all doom and gloom I expect. There will be usual remarks such as "We must keep up social distancing for a long time yet.", "This pandemic is far from over yet. Not by a long shot.", etc.

I really wish the three of them would just disappear. They're causing loads of us mental health problems, was ok at beginning of the month, now there's no sign of anything improving it's going downhill. How much longer before we see serious numbers of suicides, people being admitted for mental health problems, an even bigger problem with domestic violence etc. Why can they not see this? Opposition no better as not raising these issues.

 

[adc82140]

All you ever get if you highlight any of this to people is "better than dying on a ventilator though hun".

Then point out to them that the person that hasn't had their heart disease diagnosed will likely have a heart attack and die in just that way.

Oh and technically you can't die on a ventilator. You die when it's switched off.

 

[yorksrob]

Well, so the press and media are reporting, there are to be no new restrictions announced today in this press conference.

No news is good news.

 

[DelayRepay]

Well, so the press and media are reporting, there are to be no new restrictions announced today in this press conference.

In that case we'd better all check Matt Hancock's twitter at about 22:30* to find out what we're allowed to do tomorrow.

*Announcement times to catch those returning home from the pub.

 

[Class 33]

52 hospital deaths today. The main stats released at 4pm(ish) look set to be pretty grim again today.

 

[adc82140]

52 hospital deaths today. The main stats released at 4pm(ish) look set to be pretty grim again today.

I really would't get so hung up on the figures. On average 85 people today will have died of viral pneumonia of a non Covid origin. It's September. Respiratory illnesses and associated deaths always surge about now.

 

[Scrotnig]

I really would't get so hung up on the figures. On average 85 people today will have died of viral pneumonia of a non Covid origin. It's September. Respiratory illnesses and associated deaths always surge about now.

Personally I don't get hung up on them, but the government does. I fully expect more pointless, petty restrictions and fines as a result.

 

[DB]

It's September. Respiratory illnesses and associated deaths always surge about now.

That's an inconvenient fact which doesn't fit the narrative though, so our glorious leaders will no doubt do their best to ignore it.

As we all know, the real reason for the increases is people going out to the pub (having been encouraged to do so by the government only a few weeks ago). And kids and students wanting an education - how unreasonable of them!

 

[Jamesrob637]

Today is Wednesday.

Do we know death counts as early as lunch time? Appreciate today's Wednesday but thought the post may have been referring to yesterday's death count.

 

[Mag_seven]

52 hospital deaths today. The main stats released at 4pm(ish) look set to be pretty grim again today.

Sadly people die every day of lots of things - I wish the government would produce the total daily death figures for all causes broken down by cause so we can get deaths from COVID into some sort of perspective.

 

[ainsworth74]

Sadly people die every day of lots of things - I wish the government would produce the total daily death figures for all causes broken down by cause so we can get deaths from COVID into some sort of perspective.

Which is why I've been using excess deaths compared to the five year average. Puts everything in the right context!

 

[jtuk]

52 hospital deaths today. The main stats released at 4pm(ish) look set to be pretty grim again today.

On the other hand, a report has just popped up in my Twitter feed (on MichaelYeadon3 if anyone wants to find it) indicating that, for the UK as a whole, we likely have already hit herd immunity and that, barring minor outbreaks in certain areas where there's less coverage than others which will naturally dissipate quickly, this is for all intents and purposes over

 

[Richard Scott]

On the other hand, a report has just popped up in my Twitter feed (on MichaelYeadon3 if anyone wants to find it) indicating that, for the UK as a whole, we likely have already hit herd immunity and that, barring minor outbreaks in certain areas where there's less coverage than others which will naturally dissipate quickly, this is for all intents and purposes over

Try telling that to our politicians. Seems if there's one case they'll still be imposing restrictions.