Covid : Infection rates v death rates and a possible second wave

[brad465]

Here we are look. Today's new cases 4,044! A HUGE drop in cases since yesterday. That's a HUGE drop of 1,649. And a HUGE drop of 2,830 since Friday. I'm no mathematician, but to me the cases are definitely going down NOT surging! Let's see the press and media report this good news of this MASSIVE drop in cases. I bet they don't.

I expect tomorrow and/or other days will be higher than this to account for delayed reporting linked to the weekend, but it would have to rise substantially to be the highest daily value yes.

 

[Dent]

I expect tomorrow and/or other days will be higher than this to account for delayed reporting linked to the weekend, but it would have to rise substantially to be the highest daily value yes.

For deaths yes, but I haven't seen any evidence of a weekend reporting delay in cases.

 

[trebor79]

I expect tomorrow and/or other days will be higher than this to account for delayed reporting linked to the weekend, but it would have to rise substantially to be the highest daily value yes.

It's going to have to be a stupendous rise to get anywhere near the doom prediction:

 

[birchesgreen]

Last monday's (21st) was 4,368 so down on that too.

 

[trebor79]

Hospitalisations in England have fallen for the fourth day in a row too.
Looks like it was just a little blip caused by school and university returning. Far too early for any of the nonsense last week to have had any impact.

 

[Class 33]

For deaths yes, but I haven't seen any evidence of a weekend reporting delay in cases.

Yes it's always deaths that are lower on weekends compared to weekdays. Not really the case with cases.

I expect tomorrow and/or other days will be higher than this to account for delayed reporting linked to the weekend, but it would have to rise substantially to be the highest daily value yes.

Though yes, there could still be a day or two this week where cases may be higher than today's 4,044. But all being well, across the week we are still heading on a downward trend.

 

[LAX54]

It's just about now the rule of 6 might start to have an impact. It's at least a week early for the pub curfew to be doing anything (not that that is likely to be doing much).

I don't think the second graph is invention. It's widely accepted, even by the doom mongers, that daily infections in the spring were probably over 100,000. If anything that graph downplays it. All they have done is normalised the positives for the number of tests performed on that day. So if we'd been doing 200,000 tests per day throughout, those are the sorts of numbers of positives you'd expect to have seen.
Indeed infections must have been at 100k per day for a while for the 8% of us carrying antibodies that Vallance spoke about to have happened.

But surely this 'Rule of Six' in reality means absolutely nothing ? you could 'mingle' with 12 in 10 mins, or even 24 in 20 mins / half an hour !

 

[DB]

Last monday's (21st) was 4,368 so down on that too.

The trouble is they will use either outcome as evidence for their chosen course (which is clearly an elimination strategy):

cases down - restrictions must be working so we need more of them to 'beat the virus'
cases up - restrictions not stringent enough so we need more of them to 'beat the virus'

 

[trebor79]

But surely this 'Rule of Six' in reality means absolutely nothing ? you could 'mingle' with 12 in 10 mins, or even 24 in 20 mins / half an hour !

Agree. In fact it's likely to be counterproductive as it will encourage people to meet in pubs etc instead, and by definition mix with more people.
It is nonsense.

 

[talldave]

Here we are look. Today's new cases 4,044! A HUGE drop in cases since yesterday. That's a HUGE drop of 1,649. And a HUGE drop of 2,830 since Friday. I'm no mathematician, but to me the cases are definitely going down NOT surging! Let's see the press and media report this good news of this MASSIVE drop in cases. I bet they don't.

Deaths today 13. That's a drop of 4 from last Monday. Deaths do appear to be going down from what I can see.

But even when figures continue to fall, we won't see any restrictions lifted. That's what is destroying confidence in the muppets in government and leading to widespread ignoring of all the stupid rules.

 

[LAX54]

But even when figures continue to fall, we won't see any restrictions lifted. That's what is destroying confidence in the muppets in government and leading to widespread ignoring of all the stupid rules.

They keep the Country partially locked so reducing mixing, then ease it, and are surprised when figures, be it mild or serious, seems to be all the same 'serious' ! start to go up, but do we not need it to go up, so that more people get the so called immunity ? But then we are not the only Country to do it this way, unlesss everyone says 'enough is enough' now, we will resume normality on xxxx day, this will go on for ever.
Geeting cheesed off with many companies when you contact them, saying a lot of our staff are working from home, it will take longer to answer your question, allow an extra 7 days or whatever..., no, if home working is making things longer for the customer, get back to the office !

 

[Class 33]

But even when figures continue to fall, we won't see any restrictions lifted. That's what is destroying confidence in the muppets in government and leading to widespread ignoring of all the stupid rules.

Indeed.

And what's with this "These restrictions must continue for AT LEAST the next 6 months." that Sunak announced last Friday?? Why exactly must these restrictions continue for AT LEAST the next 6 months??!! We could well have defeated this second peak by around January or even December. And if that being the case, why exactly do we then have to stick with all these restrictions until the end of March??!! The government will then probably be waiting around for a possible THIRD peak and then say "We have to stick with these restrictions for AT LEAST another 6 months."! And then come September 2021 they'll then say "We've got the winter cold/flu season coming soon. Therefore we must continue with these restrictions for AT LEAST the next 6 months."! This sounds extreme, but it really wouldn't surprise me atall if this happens. The government seem to be holding out for a successful vaccine which may never come.

This is all just absolute madness and insanity. We just can't continue with all this nonsense for too much longer. It's completely wrecking the economy and people's lives. Let's get these new cases right down much lower(and it does appear to be heading that way at the moment), and then get all these restrictions/laws, local lockdowns, etc all SCRAPPED.

 

[midland1]

Emailed my MP on Sunday told him we need to get back to normal now, pointed out to him that I am his boss as I pay his wages!

 

[DB]

Geeting cheesed off with many companies when you contact them, saying a lot of our staff are working from home, it will take longer to answer your question, allow an extra 7 days or whatever..., no, if home working is making things longer for the customer, get back to the office !

I think that's just an excuse for reduced staff numbers, to be honest. With modern hosted VOIP systems there's no reason in most cases why the staff who would be sitting in a call centre can't be doing the same at home. Only major issue would be those who cannot get a decent internet connection, but that will be a minotiry.

 

[45107]

Emailed my MP on Sunday told him we need to get back to normal now, pointed out to him that I am his boss as I pay his wages!

And if that was the total content of your email, I expect it would have been read and deleted.

 

[kristiang85]

But even when figures continue to fall, we won't see any restrictions lifted. That's what is destroying confidence in the muppets in government and leading to widespread ignoring of all the stupid rules.

This is the problem though - people are cheesed off with the current restrictions, and fatigue with it all is taking over. IF there is a massive rise in hospitalisations in November (I don't think there will be personally, but it is a possbility), which is when measures will need some impact, people will just still ignore them. Had the population had 4-6 months of Sweden-like freedom (with some sensible socail distancing in the mix, but nothing too limiting to normal life), then they would likely be more compliant when really needed.

But, the way its going, nothing the government does will be trusted anymore.

 

[DB]

This is the problem though - people are cheesed off with the current restrictions, and fatigue with it all is taking over. IF there is a massive rise in hospitalisations in November (I don't think there will be personally, but it is a possbility), which is when measures will need some impact, people will just still ignore them. Had the population had 4-6 months of Sweden-like freedom (with some sensible socail distancing in the mix, but nothing too limiting to normal life), then they would likely be more compliant when really needed.

But, the way its going, nothing the government does will be trusted anymore.

That's all true I think, plus many people now genuninely don't know what rules apply, with the constant petty changes and the variations which exist in certain parts of the country. And many are sufficiently sick of it all that they can't be bothered to try to keep track.

 

[Meerkat]

But surely this 'Rule of Six' in reality means absolutely nothing ? you could 'mingle' with 12 in 10 mins, or even 24 in 20 mins / half an hour !

You could, but where? Are you so popular you have multiple groups of five waiting for you at assorted pubs?
in the real world you will meet up in a six or not meet up.

 

[Ian Cunningham]

Not enough is made of why it is as it is, though.

The principle of how most countries are doing it is that you assess the effect on R etc of a raft of different unrelated measures. Then you "a la carte" pick the ones to add up to the desired reduction in R with minimal economic damage.

If people understood that, the inconsistency is no longer an issue.

So the answer to "why can I meet my family down the pub but not at home" is quite simply twofold - one, that the economy needs to be kept going (because if it collapses, people die too), and two, that COVID secure measures can be enforced there but not realistically in your house - you simply aren't going to hug people in a pub, for instance, as things stand.

It's quite a nuanced point that is different from most other things, yet almost nobody is actually explaining it. When I make that point on FB posts saying things like that question, the answer is usually "Ah, that makes sense".

But Bozza and Hancock like treating the public like they are thick. The Cummings saga proved that (and was a turning point on compliance). He still needs to be sacked in disgrace.

The issue of why hospitality is open and you can meet with another household there but not in their house has been covered in some detail by ScotGov and the FM is her daily briefings in a very clear explanation
She has described the balance between the economic and employment needs of keeping the sector open with the aim to keep infection rates down and the difference between a premises with(legally enforceable) safety measures and Test and Protect in place and being in someone's house

 

[Bletchleyite]

The issue of why hospitality is open and you can meet with another household there but not in their house has been covered in some detail by ScotGov and the FM is her daily briefings in a very clear explanation
She has described the balance between the economic and employment needs of keeping the sector open with the aim to keep infection rates down and the difference between a premises with(legally enforceable) safety measures and Test and Protect in place and being in someone's house

Yes, I'd say Sturgeon has been much more open and has treated Scots as far more grown up than Bozza and Hancock have treated us.

 

[Yew]

She has described the balance between the economic and employment needs of keeping the sector open with the aim to keep infection rates down and the difference between a premises with(legally enforceable) safety measures and Test and Protect in place and being in someone's house

Do not meet other people anywhere there is not a till.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

Yes, I'd say Sturgeon has been much more open and has treated Scots as far more grown up than Bozza and Hancock have treated us.

Precisely this. Whilst I don't agree with many of the decisions that Nicola Sturgeon has made, what she has shown is leadership. Although I don't follow the Welsh coronavirus response rigorously, I believe Mark Drakeford is also showing quality leadership.

I wouldn't trust Bozza et al to lead a 5-a-side football team.

Do not meet other people anywhere there is not a till.

Sturgeon has alluded in her daily briefings that if she had the borrowing powers to extend the furlough scheme, she may have imposed further restrictions on hospitality last week when nationwide restrictions were introduced.

i.e. shut them.

 

[trebor79]

Sturgeon has alluded in her daily briefings that if she had the borrowing powers to extend the furlough scheme, she may have imposed further restrictions on hospitality last week when nationwide restrictions were introduced.

i.e. shut them.

Miserable witch. Something must have happened to her in early life to make her that way.
I sincerely hope of she gets her wish of an "independent" Scotland that I am not forced to have dual citizenship by way of having come into this world at Stobhill hospital.

 

[brad465]

Today of course is when the up to £10,000 fine for flouting self-isolation rules comes into force, so I suspect (along with others who've widely suggested this scenario) this will soon feed into confirmed cases as a result of some who won't seek a test as a result of this enforcement action.

 

[RuralRambler]

Geeting cheesed off with many companies when you contact them, saying a lot of our staff are working from home, it will take longer to answer your question, allow an extra 7 days or whatever..., no, if home working is making things longer for the customer, get back to the office !

Same here. Loads of people who are WFH saying they're just as productive/efficient, no need to return to office etc. How does that fit in with the messages from organisations saying allow extra time for calls to be answered, live chat not available, allow an extra day or two for deliveries, etc etc?

 

[bramling]

Same here. Loads of people who are WFH saying they're just as productive/efficient, no need to return to office etc. How does that fit in with the messages from organisations saying allow extra time for calls to be answered, live chat not available, allow an extra day or two for deliveries, etc etc?

Same at my work. Lots of functions taking longer or barely available at all.

 

[LAX54]

You could, but where? Are you so popular you have multiple groups of five waiting for you at assorted pubs?
in the real world you will meet up in a six or not meet up.

I know of at least one household, not locally to me had a kids Birthday Party arranged, for about 20 kids, all they did was stagger it ! a few had a 45 min 'party' and then a few followed that etc, to me that just seems like bloodyb hard work ! but we do know that some parenst will do anything not to upset their little darlings ! As for multiple pubs, I do know of some that go pub to pub on a group booze up on days off, that could easily be transformed into meeting different mates at a different pub along the way !

 

[birchesgreen]

Same here. Loads of people who are WFH saying they're just as productive/efficient, no need to return to office etc. How does that fit in with the messages from organisations saying allow extra time for calls to be answered, live chat not available, allow an extra day or two for deliveries, etc etc?

Well maybe they arn't doing client facing jobs. If you are a web development, for example, you are probably as productive. If your job is in sales or customer service maybe not as much.

 

[adc82140]

I know of at least one household, not locally to me had a kids Birthday Party arranged, for about 20 kids, all they did was stagger it ! a few had a 45 min 'party' and then a few followed that etc, to me that just seems like bloodyb hard work !

I've just declined an invitation for the boy to go to something similar. They will have a bouncy castle as well in the garden, so hardly subtle.

From a Covid point of view I don't see a problem. On that basis I'd be happy for him to go. It's all outside, the kids are in his class at school anyway etc etc. But from a legal point of view I see a few issues.

Firstly, they've misunderstood the rule of six. Each 45 minute session will have the birthday girl plus 5 of her friends. They have forgotten to count the adult supervisors.

Secondly, whilst I would never personally report anyone, having a succession of cars dropping kids off, and a bouncy castle is drawing attention to yourself.

A 200 quid fine doesn't fit in with my monthly budgeting. In addition as an NHS worker I'd find myself having a meeting no tea no biscuits with management to explain myself.

 

[trebor79]

A 200 quid fine doesn't fit in with my monthly budgeting. In addition as an NHS worker I'd find myself having a meeting no tea no biscuits with management to explain myself.

Do health professionals really believe that child attending a party with other children that they spend 5 days a week with at school increases "risk" at all?