Definitely hard times for a huge number of businesses based primarily on serving visitors and commuters and their employees and suppliers but regardless of what Boris & Co, Sadiq Khan and TfL would like from an economic perspective I do not see a big increase in numbers in Central London for at least six months.
Many leisure visits to London are centred around an event, short term exhibition or a stage performance. Travel to London is mostly by coach as part of a package or indepentantly by either NatEx or rail. Local travel is then the tube or bus. For many it is the only time they do not travel by car. While some regular museums, galleries etc. have reopened most require booking and may limit the visit time so there is limited incentive for a day trip or short break to these now.
Back in old normal times overall I wonder how often those living within the M25 or just beyond e.g. Hemel Hempstead, Slough, Windsor went to central London compared with those living around Leeds, Manchester etc visiting the city centre ? Could this at least partly explain why London has maintained a much lower level of Covid-19 infections ?
Added to this is a lack of international visitors.
For business the owners, directors and managers have numerous factors to consider against which to balance how well their business has been running for the last few months with employees working remotely. In no particular order
- how many can work in the space available while maintaining at least 2m distancing
- controlling distancing in pinch points e.g. kitchen / canteen and toilets
- managing enhanced cleaning and disinfection
- even if the building is only a few stories not a tower block managing access via lifts and stairways
- can there be a one way system ?
- disruption / inefficiency of staggered working hours
- air conditioning, heating and ventilation
- several staff if not a whole team becoming infected so unavailable, which is far less likely with remote working
Further the preferences of the staff not least the risks and changed arrangements for travel
- if Avanti, long distance GWR or LNER the need to book to be sure of being allowed on a train
- if other national / London Overground rail the risk of either trains being too busy for even 1m distance or queuing
- if not walking distance travel from the arrival station the use of central London tube and buses
Long term IMO while it would have happened gradually now I can not see the numbers who commuted long distance to then work mostly with a screen, keyboard and mouse ever returning. There are already many empty regional shops with no future and there will be more. The logical use is conversion to offices. A business could have permanent use of a complete building, a floor of a building or a suite or just rent desks as required.
Following on logically many central London office blocks will be converted to housing. Could there even be a reversal to commuting from the centre out to the suburbs to work ?