How much longer will social distancing go on for in the UK?

[BJames]

According to local news, Nottingham's annual (and famous) Goose Fair, due to take place 30th Sept-4th Oct has been cancelled today, due to concerns around social distancing and how people would travel to/from the event (it's basically tram or bus). They had considered doubling the length to ten days or considerably reducing capacity but neither would be a good enough option. Worth bearing in mind this was supposed to be the 729th year in which this fair ran, and has only been cancelled eight times before, due to the Bubonic plague and WWI/WWII. Not good for the local economy - it's quite the attraction.

As far as I'm concerned social distancing has effectively already ended in all settings apart from when it is forced upon us.

Agreed. Certainly in England and in my neck of the woods, I'd love if a few members of scientific bodies and government ministers would get themselves out and about and realise that people are doing what they want, when they want - except for things that are closed by law. Haven't really seen evidence of general social distancing for many weeks now.

I saw a frustrating comment from the WHO today, which said "we hope this pandemic will be over within two years"...

 

[Huntergreed]

According to local news, Nottingham's annual (and famous) Goose Fair, due to take place 30th Sept-4th Oct has been cancelled today, due to concerns around social distancing and how people would travel to/from the event (it's basically tram or bus). They had considered doubling the length to ten days or considerably reducing capacity but neither would be a good enough option. Worth bearing in mind this was supposed to be the 729th year in which this fair ran, and has only been cancelled eight times before, due to the Bubonic plague and WWI/WWII. Not good for the local economy - it's quite the attraction.

That’s such a shame to hear. In my opinion this is in no way even remotely as devastating as any of the events you’ve mentioned and they’re once again peddling the message that “public transport is dangerous” with that reasoning, this really, really needs to stop

Agreed. Certainly in England and in my neck of the woods, I'd love if a few members of scientific bodies and government ministers would get themselves out and about and realise that people are doing what they want, when they want - except for things that are closed by law. Haven't really seen evidence of general social distancing for many weeks now.

Likewise in Scotland, nobody is bothering anymore apart from a terrified few and in places where it’s enforced. Even the stickers in shops and indoor settings are largely paid no heed to now.

I saw a frustrating comment from the WHO today, which said "we hope this pandemic will be over within two years"...

Was that from this article?

The World Health Organisation chief hopes the coronavirus pandemic will end in less than two years.

WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus provided the estimate today.

He said: "Our situation now with more technology, of course with more connectiveness, the virus has a better chance of spreading, it can move fast.

"At the same time we have the technology and knowledge to stop it."


The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 took two years to end, he said.

More than 22.81 million people have been reported to be infected by the coronavirus globally and 793,382 have died, according to a Reuters tally.

(Source:https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www....-world-health-organisation-hopes-22559122.amp)
I’m genuinely sick of comparisons to the Spanish Flu pandemic, which is hardly resemblant whatsoever of the current situation.

I’m equally sick of the WHO’s constant fear-mongering. I don’t think it’s entirely fit for purpose anymore. A “world leading” health advisory group which bows to political pressure (on their position with mandatory masks) and completely ignores the economic impact and the fact it’s impossible to eliminate this virus is, in my view, one which shouldn’t be paid much heed.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I saw a frustrating comment from the WHO today, which said "we hope this pandemic will be over within two years"...

I would expect a vaccine will effectively end it in Western countries plus the richer Eastern ones at some point in the next 6-8 months or so. But that won't end the pandemic, so the WHO is right there, it will continue to rip its way across poorer African and south American countries who can't afford the vaccines or can't even get them.

 

[takno]

Just read an article about how Edinburgh is planning for a “socially distanced” Christmas festival this year, which implies to me that social distancing is here for the rest of 2020:



(Source:https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-53862916)

That's just underbelly jumping on the bandwagon to take over even more of the city for even more of the year. Now that is a nasty vulture of an organisation that I'd be more happy to see go under

 

[BJames]

Was that from this article?



(Source:https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www....-world-health-organisation-hopes-22559122.amp)
I’m genuinely sick of comparisons to the Spanish Flu pandemic, which is hardly resemblant whatsoever of the current situation.

I’m equally sick of the WHO’s constant fear-mongering. I don’t think it’s entirely fit for purpose anymore. A “world leading” health advisory group which bows to political pressure (on their position with mandatory masks) and completely ignores the economic impact and the fact it’s impossible to eliminate this virus is, in my view, one which shouldn’t be paid much heed.

That's what I'm talking about but can't remember exactly where I saw it. And yet again Spanish flu is the example and because that took two years to resolve, this must take two years too. Things have changed a lot in 100 years. Plus the death rate for Spanish flu, according to this article (https://ourworldindata.org/spanish-flu-largest-influenza-pandemic-in-history) and different studies is between 1%-5.4% depending on which data you use:

Estimates suggest that the world population in 1918 was 1.8 billion.

Based on this, the low estimate of 17.4 million deaths by Spreeuwenberg et al. (2018) implies that the Spanish flu killed almost 1% (0.95%) of the world population.9

If we rely on the estimate of 50 million deaths published by Johnson and Mueller, it implies that the Spanish flu killed 2.7% of the world population. And if it was in fact higher – 100 million as these authors suggest – then the global death rate would have been 5.4%.10

So I certainly agree. It's not the same, and any comparisons need to be used a bit less flippantly.

I would expect a vaccine will effectively end it in Western countries plus the richer Eastern ones at some point in the next 6-8 months or so. But that won't end the pandemic, so the WHO is right there, it will continue to rip its way across poorer African and south American countries who can't afford the vaccines or can't even get them.

True, I'd hope for a more generous approach to delivering vaccines fairly and equally across the world but I suspect this won't happen. Although you never know - it could come down to who develops the first effective vaccine - if it's the USA, I doubt it will be spread fairly.




== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 21 Aug 2020 ==

On a slightly different and more on-topic discussion, I noticed major disruption Grantham-Newark today. One of the things that the disruption page on National Rail says is:

Please be aware that trains and stations may be busier than usual during times of disruption, please consider delaying your journey if you are unable to maintain a 2 metre distance between yourself and other customers.

A typo, or a misunderstanding somewhere along the line? I thought that the 1m+ rule was primarily to allow less social distancing if other mitigations were taken. Compulsory face masks are certainly one of those mitigations.

 

[Class 33]

Just read an article about how Edinburgh is planning for a “socially distanced” Christmas festival this year, which implies to me that social distancing is here for the rest of 2020:



(Source:https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-53862916)

That doesn't mean for sure that social distancing will definitely still be with us by Christmas. The organisers of this festival just feel that it's very uncertain at the moment what the situation will be by Christmas, as these festivals takes months to organise, so I guess they just decided to go for a socially distanced festival instead.

Bath Christmas Market was cancelled last month. Gloucester Christmas Market has been cancelled this week. I guess there will be no Christmas Markets in the UK this year at this rate, even though social distancing may be scrapped by then.

Next year's London Marathon due to take place in April has been moved to October. But that doesn't mean social distancing will still be with us next April(god forbid if it is, as this country will be SERIOUSLY messed up by then).

And I read on another forum that a music festival due to take place next summer has already been cancelled, due to the uncertainty of Coronavirus, social distancing rules and bans on mass gatherings. I think that's a bit premature them cancelling it so early, but with the way things are at the moment with this social distancing still dragging on and on they just decided to cancel it early, rather than start organising it months in advance and then having to cancel it.

-------------------

It will be interesting to see the daily deaths for the coming week now. Yesterday's deaths was just TWO. So I think there's a fair chance we will at long last get a day of ZERO deaths this week. And if so, whether Boris or anyone else in the cabinet will respond to that positively.

The daily deaths are incredibly low now. Time to finally end this social distancing madness. If this is still going by November, after the furlough scheme ends at the end of October, then the unemployment rate could well be sky high, 8 MILLION, 9 MILLION??!! Social distancing needs to end before the furlough scheme ends.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

It will be interesting to see the daily deaths for the coming week now. Yesterday's deaths was just TWO. So I think there's a fair chance we will at long last get a day of ZERO deaths this week. And if so, whether Boris or anyone else in the cabinet will respond to that positively.

0 deaths were reported on July 30th, looking at the UKGov data.

 

[Class 33]

0 deaths were reported on July 30th, looking at the UKGov data.

Upon checking that now, so it was! But I don't remember that day of ZERO deaths, and there was no mention of it in the media. And I'm checking the daily deaths every single day. They must have changed it as the original number of deaths published that day was wrong. I'll see if I can find the original deaths published that day. Though not right now, as it's very late! EDIT: Actually just found it quickly now, and the original number of deaths published on July 30th was 38.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

Upon checking that now, so it was! But I don't remember that day of ZERO deaths, and there was no mention of it in the media. And I'm checking the daily deaths every single day. They must have changed it as the original number of deaths published that day was wrong. I'll see if I can find the original deaths published that day. Though not right now, as it's very late! EDIT: Actually just found it quickly now, and the original number of deaths published on July 30th was 38.

Yeah it was before they changed the reporting of English deaths to within 28 days of positive test.

 

[Bantamzen]

I reckon there will be a fairly busy market in patio heaters. This isn't great for the environment, however...

Neither is the billions more tons of plastic being produced, billions of masks being discarded (and already making their way to our oceans), goodness knows how many billions of litres of sanitiser being flushed into our waterways. But just so long as we stay feeling safe....

 

[ChrisC]

Certainly in England and in my neck of the woods, I'd love if a few members of scientific bodies and government ministers would get themselves out and about and realise that people are doing what they want, when they want - except for things that are closed by law. Haven't really seen evidence of general social distancing for many weeks now.

Two weeks ago I was on holiday for a few days in a rural area of North Yorkshire. I found that social distancing was very much still in evidence around Pickering, Kirkbymoorside, Helmsley, and even more so in the in the smaller villages. Most of the shops in these place are small independent shops and there were signs on nearly every shop door saying only one person in the shop at a time. There were small queues outside many shops. The village stores in some of the smaller villages were just the same and there were strict social distancing rules in tea rooms, cafes and gift shops. The hotel where I stayed although nice and relaxed was also following very rigorous hygiene, mask wearing and social distancing measures.

I think this may be the case in many rural areas, especially where the average age of the population is much higher than in most urban areas. Certainly in the smaller independent shops in villages near me in Nottinghamshire social distancing is still very much being observed. I would like to see social distancing go as soon as possible and I absolutely hate wearing a mask, but as much as I would like to see us get back to normal quickly, I do wonder if the more widespread following of social distancing in these areas is keeping new cases low. The Ryedale area of North Yorkshire is one of a very few areas of the country that has not seen any new cases for nearly 2 months. In my fairly rural local council area in Nottinghamshire there has only been one death from Coronavirus which is far less than there would be from a normal flu outbreak.

 

[NorthOxonian]

Two weeks ago I was on holiday for a few days in a rural area of North Yorkshire. I found that social distancing was very much still in evidence around Pickering, Kirkbymoorside, Helmsley, and even more so in the in the smaller villages. Most of the shops in these place are small independent shops and there were signs on nearly every shop door saying only one person in the shop at a time. There were small queues outside many shops. The village stores in some of the smaller villages were just the same and there were strict social distancing rules in tea rooms, cafes and gift shops. The hotel where I stayed although nice and relaxed was also following very rigorous hygiene, mask wearing and social distancing measures.

I think this may be the case in many rural areas, especially where the average age of the population is much higher than in most urban areas. Certainly in the smaller independent shops in villages near me in Nottinghamshire social distancing is still very much being observed. I would like to see social distancing go as soon as possible and I absolutely hate wearing a mask, but as much as I would like to see us get back to normal quickly, I do wonder if the more widespread following of social distancing in these areas is keeping new cases low. The Ryedale area of North Yorkshire is one of a very few areas of the country that has not seen any new cases for nearly 2 months. In my fairly rural local council area in Nottinghamshire there has only been one death from Coronavirus which is far less than there would be from a normal flu outbreak.

It's funny you should mention Kirkbymoorside, Helmsley, et al, because I was looking at the data on cases by neighbourhood, and it appears that in that part of the world there have been no cases at all during the entire pandemic (due to data suppression there might have been one or two). It's quite clear they're doing something right out there.

 

[Bletchleyite]

That's just underbelly jumping on the bandwagon to take over even more of the city for even more of the year. Now that is a nasty vulture of an organisation that I'd be more happy to see go under

Though FWIW I hate the packed-full, pickpocket-ridden Christmas markets as they are - spreading them out so the density of people is lower and it's more enjoyable and safer as a result seems a good idea to me. I hope Birmingham does the same, it can be oppressive there on a Saturday afternoon, you can barely move. If they expanded it to cover all the main city centre pedestrianised streets but with the same number of stalls it would be far, far nicer.

 

[C J Snarzell]

I think it's a good point to raise about the planning of public events. Just because, a Christmas event is cancelled does not necessarily mean that we will be subject to strong social distancing measures at Crimbo - it's all to do with the timescale involved in preparing these events. However, my guess is we will still be subject to certain restrictions by December.

Next years London Marathon has been delayed from April until October. The planning involved in organising something so huge takes months of leg work. Clearly event organisers are forecasting when it would be sensible to hold a crowded event. It doesn't necessarily mean we will be subject to social distancing by April 2021 - the organisers of the Marathon don't want to start planning something only for all the hard work & effort to go up in smoke if virus cases are still breaking out in early 2021.

I do think Christmas 2020 will be a wash out. I've read the Pantomine Season is going to be badly affected as many school authorities are going to be cancelling annual events for pupils. Andy Burnham is currently in talks about this year's Manchester Christmas Markets which cannot really go ahead in light of the rise in Covid cases in a handful of Greater Manchester boroughs. Even something as innocent as the children's Santa grottos are under threat with hundreds of young children coming into physical contact with a chap dressed as Father Christmas.

Then of course there is New Year........

It is too early to speculate at this stage, but I can guarantee some aspects of Christmas will be absent this year.

CJ

 

[westv]

I've read the Pantomime Season is going to be badly affected

Oh no it won't.

 

[C J Snarzell]

Oh no it won't.

Maybe get the Downing Street briefings underway again - that would be more than enough to satisfy this year's patomine season.

 

[thejuggler]

It's funny you should mention Kirkbymoorside, Helmsley, et al, because I was looking at the data on cases by neighbourhood, and it appears that in that part of the world there have been no cases at all during the entire pandemic (due to data suppression there might have been one or two). It's quite clear they're doing something right out there.

Lockdown occured at the right time, that area of Yorkshire, like many rural areas, is dead over winter. As lockdown happened before Easter and still in force over May bank holidays it would have been very effective as nothing would have been open and the tourists would have stayed away.

 

[trebor79]

Does anyone else find the term "social distancing" irritating and meaningless? Surely it's "physical distancing".
In any case, other than the paranoid is largely ignored now in crowded places. I really don't think the mask mandate has helped at all. Some people will mistakenly think the masks are a substitute, some will unconsciously be less thorough with distancing. And some, like me, will be bloody minded and decide that if the government is going tell me what to wear on my face I will stop doing anything on a voluntary basis. I don't act like this deliberately, but it's just the way I'm wired. The more mask mandates increase the less prepared I am to do anything else.

Really the only impact of distancing now is the continued closure of certain sectors of the economy, and other sectors running with limited capacity, which makes them borderline unviable.

 

[DB]

Does anyone else find the term "social distancing" irritating and meaningless? Surely it's "physical distancing".
In any case, other than the paranoid is largely ignored now in crowded places. I really don't think the mall mandate has helped at all. Some people will mistakenly think the masks are a substitute, some will unconsciously be less thorough with distancing. And some, like me, will be bloody minded and decide that if the government is going tell me what to wear on my face I will stop doing anything on a voluntary basis. I don't act like this deliberately, but it's just the way I'm wired. The more mask mandates increase the less prepared I am to do anything else.

Really the only impact of distancing now is the continued closure of certain sectors of the economy, and other sectors running with limited capacity, which makes them borderline unviable.

Yes, it's a moronic term. What is also annoying is when organisations smugly announce 'we are practicing social distancing' like they are doing something notable by following the guidelines that everyone is supposed to follow.

 

[trebor79]

Yes, it's a moronic term. What is also annoying is when organisations smugly announce 'we are practicing social distancing' like they are doing something notable by following the guidelines that everyone is supposed to follow.

I particularly hate the signs reminding people to "Maintain social distancing".

 

[BJames]

Really the only impact of distancing now is the continued closure of certain sectors of the economy, and other sectors running with limited capacity, which makes them borderline unviable.

E.g. nightclubs. And festivals. Both of which are obviously unworkable with any social distancing (or face masks but let's not go into that), the only mitigation which they could do would be clean more (and I certainly have no objection to this). Our clubs (showing my age here but) are at serious risk of closing in my uni city. One of the main student clubs has quite an active boss on Instagram, and he's said he has to make a decision this week whether to close permanently or bite the bullet and ride it out until he can open again. Noting that he has excellent insurance and has made use of all of the options the government have given and they're not enough. I see the Deltic group (owns Pryzm etc) are warning about serious redundancies in the next few weeks if the government don't do something.

The best he can do under the social distancing rules is turn it into a sit down place (basically a bar) temporarily. They need help.

Oh, and I've seen many times people have mentioned festivals quite simply must run next year as normal or they will go bust. So let's hope social distancing will be reduced down officially (rather than just people deciding not to do it).

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 22 Aug 2020 ==

I particularly hate the signs reminding people to "Maintain social distancing".

So do I, I agree with you and DavidB, this term is infuriating.

 

[talldave]

Does anyone else find the term "social distancing" irritating and meaningless? Surely it's "physical distancing".

Yes! I have used "antisocial distancing" which would seem to be a more accurate description.

I agree that masks are making people feel invincible. An added bonus of not wearing a mask is that people tend to keep their distance.

 

[PTR 444]

E.g. nightclubs. And festivals. Both of which are obviously unworkable with any social distancing (or face masks but let's not go into that), the only mitigation which they could do would be clean more (and I certainly have no objection to this). Our clubs (showing my age here but) are at serious risk of closing in my uni city. One of the main student clubs has quite an active boss on Instagram, and he's said he has to make a decision this week whether to close permanently or bite the bullet and ride it out until he can open again. Noting that he has excellent insurance and has made use of all of the options the government have given and they're not enough. I see the Deltic group (owns Pryzm etc) are warning about serious redundancies in the next few weeks if the government don't do something.

The best he can do under the social distancing rules is turn it into a sit down place (basically a bar) temporarily. They need help.

Oh, and I've seen many times people have mentioned festivals quite simply must run next year as normal or they will go bust. So let's hope social distancing will be reduced down officially (rather than just people deciding not to do it).

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 22 Aug 2020 ==


So do I, I agree with you and DavidB, this term is infuriating.

In my university city, there are a handful of nightclubs which have announced they will be reopening next month with reduced capacity and advance booking compulsory. I would assume that they are changing their licence from a nightclub to a bar as I don’t know how they could open otherwise. I’m aware that’s what one club in Preston did, which subsequently became responsible for a cluster of new cases leading up to that city’s local lockdown.

 

[BJames]

In my university city, there are a handful of nightclubs which have announced they will be reopening next month with reduced capacity and advance booking compulsory. I would assume that they are changing their licence from a nightclub to a bar as I don’t know how they could open otherwise. I’m aware that’s what one club in Preston did, which subsequently became responsible for a cluster of new cases leading up to that city’s local lockdown.

Interesting, it must be similar to what some of ours are doing, but it would be interesting to know whether they're doing it as a complete sit down type thing - I assume dance floors are completely banned in the regulations at the moment? Happy to be corrected though.

 

[HSTEd]

E.g. nightclubs. And festivals. Both of which are obviously unworkable with any social distancing (or face masks but let's not go into that), the only mitigation which they could do would be clean more (and I certainly have no objection to this). Our clubs (showing my age here but) are at serious risk of closing in my uni city. One of the main student clubs has quite an active boss on Instagram, and he's said he has to make a decision this week whether to close permanently or bite the bullet and ride it out until he can open again. Noting that he has excellent insurance and has made use of all of the options the government have given and they're not enough. I see the Deltic group (owns Pryzm etc) are warning about serious redundancies in the next few weeks if the government don't do something.

Given Chris Witty is talking about hoping to have a vaccine by the winter of 2021-22..... might be time to shutter them all and quit lying to the public.

 

[plugwash]

And I read on another forum that a music festival due to take place next summer has already been cancelled, due to the uncertainty of Coronavirus, social distancing rules and bans on mass gatherings. I think that's a bit premature them cancelling it so early, but with the way things are at the moment with this social distancing still dragging on and on they just decided to cancel it early, rather than start organising it months in advance and then having to cancel it.

The later you cancel something the more it costs you to cancel it. AIUI for many events the organising process and associated costs/commitments start about a year in advance.

Many annual events have taken a big financial hit through cancelling this year. It doesn't surprise me that some would decide that the only option to safegaurd their long term future is to cancel next year too.

 

[Bantamzen]

Does anyone else find the term "social distancing" irritating and meaningless? Surely it's "physical distancing".
In any case, other than the paranoid is largely ignored now in crowded places. I really don't think the mask mandate has helped at all. Some people will mistakenly think the masks are a substitute, some will unconsciously be less thorough with distancing. And some, like me, will be bloody minded and decide that if the government is going tell me what to wear on my face I will stop doing anything on a voluntary basis. I don't act like this deliberately, but it's just the way I'm wired. The more mask mandates increase the less prepared I am to do anything else.

Really the only impact of distancing now is the continued closure of certain sectors of the economy, and other sectors running with limited capacity, which makes them borderline unviable.

Yes I do, especially when I hear a doctor talking on the news about offering additional flu jabs this year, but socially distanced of course. Seriously a doctor on live news said she would b epractising social distancing when administering flu jabs. "Social distancing" has become nothing more than a buzz word for the virtue signallers.

Given Chris Witty is talking about hoping to have a vaccine by the winter of 2021-22..... might be time to shutter them all and quit lying to the public.

I hope Chris Whitty has some plans to finance such a long term closure?

 

[Class800]

It will only occur in enforced settings, it won't happen for much longer (if it even still is) in most of our interactions.

People will not stop living their lives indefinitely; for example if we are not allowed to officially play football for many months (which I don't believe for one moment) people will just do it anyway.

I've posted on another thread about the dangers of restricting people too much; those who want to ban things are effectively asking the police to do an impossible job. See: https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...w-how-people-are-behaving.205822/post-4641882

Yorkie - I completely agree with you. Also, I think it will stop only if people grasp the nettle and start breaking the system down - which has some risks given we effectively live in a police state, as shown by the Manchester police fining people for holding a child's party. Or it might stop in run up to next general election if considered to be politically expedient. Else the new normal may be the normal forever - and I hate it

 

[bramling]

Yorkie - I completely agree with you. Also, I think it will stop only if people grasp the nettle and start breaking the system down - which has some risks given we effectively live in a police state, as shown by the Manchester police fining people for holding a child's party. Or it might stop in run up to next general election if considered to be politically expedient. Else the new normal may be the normal forever - and I hate it

I don’t have a problem with the concept of distancing, however it should be on a “where reasonably possible” basis. Naturally definitions of reasonable will be open to some interpretation, however some of what we’re seeing goes far beyond that IMO.

 

[Vespa]

Yet again, Sweden is a great example - look at the graphs. A massive increase in cases during June, they didn't panic, and there was no effect whatever on their consistently falling death rate.

Sweden is not a densely populated country which could be factor in why they're doing well compared, Swedes generally are not very tactile people so this goes some way to explain why it doesn't spread easily.

Italians and Spaniards are very tactile hugging, kissing on cheeks, stand really close to each which helps to spread the virus, maybe that's probably why they have a high desth rate.

As for the UK our high death rate could be attributed to our population density.

Something to consider ?