How much longer will social distancing go on for in the UK?

[Yew]

Is it though?

Distancing is now widely ignored. The evidence for masks making any difference is weak, and in any case many people don't wear them properly. There have been a good few cases of large crowds - e.g. raves, Bournemouth Beach, etc - and there is no evidence that any of these have had much of an impact despite the dire warnings.

Because our policies are built on modelling and predictions, not facts and evidence.

 

[MikeWM]

A slow up and no we don't. We now need to get on with life. Even 1000 cases a day means 200 years before we all get this so even if went up to 10000 a day would still be 20 years so let's just get on with life. If hospitalisations go up and put NHS at risk (which hasn't happened yet) then maybe need some precautions but otherwise what's the point. Let's stop pussy footing around and get going.

Yet again, Sweden is a great example - look at the graphs. A massive increase in cases during June, they didn't panic, and there was no effect whatever on their consistently falling death rate.

 

[AdamWW]

Because our policies are built on modelling and predictions, not facts and evidence.

Does it bother you that the case for investment in improving rail infrastructure is based on "modelling and predictions"?

 

[DB]

Does it bother you that the case for investment in improving rail infrastructure is based on "modelling and predictions"?

That has to be based on modelling and predictions because if services don't currently exist then actual numbers can't be measured.

Really not the same thing with the Big Bad Virus, where many things can be measured - particularly the important hospitalisations and deaths statistics.

 

[bramling]

Cases are on a slow up now. So we need to watch it.

Watching it is one thing, however rising cases haven’t necessarily translated to massively increasing death figures elsewhere, for example in America. Their “second wave” does also seem to be confined mainly to places which didn’t get it first time round.

If anything I’d like to see more work done on the risks of long-term consequences. At present I feel this is the thing which more of all prevents me from making a fully informed risk assessment.

 

[DB]

If anything I’d like to see more work done on the risks of long-term consequences. At present I feel this is the thing which more of all prevents me from making a fully informed risk assessment.

I cannot help but think that if there was any evidence of this affecting more than a handful of people (and it would probably be obvious by now), the media would have been all over it.

 

[yorkie]

Cases are on a slow up now. So we need to watch it.

I thought this claim (which keeps getting repeated) was debunked yesterday?

The ONS said as much last week. The recorded cases are going up, but in their random testing it has flatlined. You test more you find more. This is why the rate is staying high in areas with local lockdowns, but is falling in places like Swindon which was high, but not subjected to a testing blitz.

And 10 days ago you said that cases were "levelling off" and were speculating about the potential reasons for this; and a response was offered:

More likely they actually know a thing about statistics, and how doing more/targeted tests means that you find more cases..

@Bletchleyite are you suggesting that we are not doing more targeted tests? Or are you agreeing we are doing more targeted tests but you have evidence to conclude that any increase is not due to that?

 

[bramling]

I cannot help but think that if there was any evidence of this affecting more than a handful of people (and it would probably be obvious by now), the media would have been all over it.

Yes I agree that seems to be the case, as like you say there’s been very little publicity. Would be nice to get some official opinion though.

 

[AdamWW]

That has to be based on modelling and predictions because if services don't currently exist then actual numbers can't be measured.

Really not the same thing with the Big Bad Virus, where many things can be measured - particularly the important hospitalisations and deaths statistics.

Well yes but I don't think it's true that they aren't measuring them.

And modelling and predictions aren't just used for new services, they're also used to justify improvements to existing infrastructure.

 

[greyman42]

Leaving aside the point that this is debateable, it's not the most important point anyway - hospitalisations and deaths are way down and those are the two most significant measures.

I completely agree. This is what the government needs to be taking note off.

 

[Bikeman78]

Is it though?

Distancing is now widely ignored. The evidence for masks making any difference is weak, and in any case many people don't wear them properly. There have been a good few cases of large crowds - e.g. raves, Bournemouth Beach, etc - and there is no evidence that any of these have had much of an impact despite the dire warnings.

Some trains around London are quite busy again so if there's no spike in the next few weeks then we can stop flapping about going on trains. On AGA, some of the four car trains (as a result of the 379 debacle) were full and standing. On one train, three girls were travelling together and one hugged the other two when she got off at Ilford.

 

[route101]

Was wondering , was the 2m thing with queuing into supermarkets, did that start before lockdown?

 

[LAX54]

Some trains around London are quite busy again so if there's no spike in the next few weeks then we can stop flapping about going on trains. On AGA, some of the four car trains (as a result of the 379 debacle) were full and standing. On one train, three girls were travelling together and one hugged the other two when she got off at Ilford.

Are we not still waiting for 'spike' from the beach invasions from May, June and July, and the protests in London ?

 

[Richard Scott]

Are we not still waiting for 'spike' from the beach invasions from May, June and July, and the protests in London ?

We're constantly waiting for a spike caused by some measure being relaxed. If I were a betting person I'd have money on the second coming happening first!

 

[Bletchleyite]

I thought this claim (which keeps getting repeated) was debunked yesterday?

The fact is recorded cases are increasing - there may be several reasons for this.

@Bletchleyite are you suggesting that we are not doing more targeted tests? Or are you agreeing we are doing more targeted tests but you have evidence to conclude that any increase is not due to that?

I don't think there's been any significant change to the basis of testing, there's just more of it?

 

[takno]

We're constantly waiting for a spike caused by some measure being relaxed. If I were a betting person I'd have money on the second coming happening first!

Well that'll have to change a bit from last time. There were a lot of people in that barn, pretty much all of them from different households, none of whom left contact details, nobody even tried to set up a one way system round the crib, and there was no regular cleaning of high contact touchpoints. The only saving grace was that they used an outhouse which had quite a breeze running through it already.

 

[MikeWM]

Was wondering , was the 2m thing with queuing into supermarkets, did that start before lockdown?

I was out and about doing a Rover until a few hours after the lockdown was announced on the 23rd.

The first train I got that morning mentioned 2m, I recall clearly because I'd not heard it mentioned until then and thought 'that's a bit silly'.

On arriving into Tamworth, it was like a switch had been pulled and everyone had learnt alien behaviour overnight. Suddenly people were queueing to get into shops, standing very far from one another. There had been none of that the previous day.

Though supermarkets started queueing etc. a bit later than that. I was in Asda in Retford on the evening of the 23rd and all was fairly normal bar the lack of toilet roll - they even had paracetamol! Tesco in Peterborough was 'normal' too, if rather understocked.

 

[takno]

I was out and about doing a Rover until a few hours after the lockdown was announced on the 23rd.

The first train I got that morning mentioned 2m, I recall clearly because I'd not heard it mentioned until then and thought 'that's a bit silly'.

On arriving into Tamworth, it was like a switch had been pulled and everyone had learnt alien behaviour overnight. Suddenly people were queueing to get into shops, standing very far from one another. There had been none of that the previous day.

Though supermarkets started queueing etc. a bit later than that. I was in Asda in Retford on the evening of the 23rd and all was fairly normal bar the lack of toilet roll - they even had paracetamol! Tesco in Peterborough was 'normal' too, if rather understocked.

I don't think anybody did anything about supermarkets at all until the Friday after the announcement on the Thursday - certainly I did a tour of the local supermarkets on the Monday and Tuesday after the initial announcement, securing enough booze to see us through the 6 weeks I thought it was going to last for. Even after proper lockdown it was pretty ad hoc - mostly left to individual store managers to arrange and all happening over a few days. Bigger stores tended to have queueing in place sooner, but the one way systems mostly took a week to get into place. That actually wasn't a huge problem because after stocking up in the days before, huge proportion of the population were shocked into over-compliance and the shops were mostly pretty empty.

I think it was also about a week before Tesco introduced the absurd hokey-cokey system at the tills with you and the till assistant dancing backwards and forwards in a futile attempt to stay 2m apart at all times.

 

[Smidster]

Those who want distancing scrapped in the near term had better be prepared to be disappointed

Realistically distancing is not going anywhere until there is either a vaccine deployed at scale, reliable therapeutics or case numbers are literally zero for a period. The chances of any of those happening in the next 6 months are virtually zero. Especially when you factor in that we are about to lose the climate advantage that Summer gives when everyone can be outside.

I think we need to be very careful about obsessing about case numbers - with the kinds of testing we have right now, including going door to door in some places and telling people who are not sick to be tested then it is inevitable you will find more cases.

That is a good thing , or it would be if track and trace was up to snuff, but right now incidence still seems low

 

[nlogax]

Realistically distancing is not going anywhere until there is either a vaccine deployed at scale, reliable therapeutics or case numbers are literally zero for a period. The chances of any of those happening in the next 6 months are virtually zero. Especially when you factor in that we are about to lose the climate advantage that Summer gives when everyone can be outside.

Spot on. There's a determination here amongst many to be done with distancing and completely return to normal, but only a vaccine or highly effective treatment will allow us to do that. C19 isn't going to be eradicated and most countries don't want to be seen to be accepting of the idea that a higher proportion of their elderly or at-risk citizens should die as some sort of state-sanctioned sacrifice to pursue that normality.

 

[takno]

Those who want distancing scrapped in the near term had better be prepared to be disappointed

Realistically distancing is not going anywhere until there is either a vaccine deployed at scale, reliable therapeutics or case numbers are literally zero for a period. The chances of any of those happening in the next 6 months are virtually zero. Especially when you factor in that we are about to lose the climate advantage that Summer gives when everyone can be outside.

I think we need to be very careful about obsessing about case numbers - with the kinds of testing we have right now, including going door to door in some places and telling people who are not sick to be tested then it is inevitable you will find more cases.

That is a good thing , or it would be if track and trace was up to snuff, but right now incidence still seems low

The good weather is about the only thing keeping most forms of social distancing credible at all. The slow persistent drumbeat of people not dying, while an ever-increasing proportion of the population is back at work is going to make the remaining places that are closed seem very anomalous. More and more of the focus every day is on the economic and social damage. Give it a month or two and will become a moral imperative to keep calm and carry on. Like, properly carry on

 

[Bletchleyite]

Social distancing is inhumane torture.

You are entitled to that opinion but it doesn't mean that @Smidster is wrong. You have basically two options. You can hate it and moan about it, or you can learn to live with it. Social distancing is not going away until there is a sustained decline in caseload to near-zero.

 

[Richard Scott]

You are entitled to that opinion but it doesn't mean that @Smidster is wrong. You have basically two options. You can hate it and moan about it, or you can learn to live with it. Social distancing is not going away until there is a sustained decline in caseload to near-zero.

Humans are social animals so are not going to be able to learn to live with it, may be able to accept it for a while. I think what we all need to learn to live with is this virus, which seems to be something you seem unable to accept.

 

[Yew]

You are entitled to that opinion but it doesn't mean that @Smidster is wrong. You have basically two options. You can hate it and moan about it, or you can learn to live with it. Social distancing is not going away until there is a sustained decline in caseload to near-zero.

You're presenting a false dichotomy there (and a very patronising one at that) we can influence the discussion, promote proper science, and if worse comes to worst, take direct action to recalim our basic rights. There are too many people who are priveleged in enjoying this, who seem incapable of understanding the suffering that they are causing through this insane unscientific delusion that we can control this thing.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Humans are social animals so are not going to be able to learn to live with it, may be able to accept it for a while. I think what we all need to learn to live with is this virus, which seems to be something you seem unable to accept.

Living with the virus will mean having distancing measures in place. It won't be possible to just let it "run riot" due to the high potential death toll.

You're presenting a false dichotomy there (and a very patronising one at that) we can influence the discussion, promote proper science, and if worse comes to worst, take direct action to recalim our basic rights. There are too many people who are priveleged in enjoying this, who seem incapable of understanding the suffering that they are causing through this insane unscientific delusion that we can control this thing.

The measures are controlling it. Release them and it'll skyrocket.

 

[Mag_seven]

Can we keep the debate on this thread civilised please. Thanks.

 

[Yew]

The measures are controlling it. Release them and it'll skyrocket.

No, they're not, they're just delaying the inevitable, perhaps even making it worse, as the nursing homes are filling up with new customers. Even SAGE admitted that the problem with lockdowns is that there'd no exit strategy. (And that's before we consider that London is probably at the cusp of herd immunity already)

 

[Richard Scott]

Living with the virus will mean having distancing measures in place. It won't be possible to just let it "run riot" due to the high potential death toll.

No it doesn't. We were told relaxing all these measures would cause a massive increase in numbers, hasn't happened. How long then do you suggest we live like this as at current rate of infections it'll be about 200 years? I'm not living the rest of my life like this because paranoid people want to see infections down to zero. Living in cloud Cuckoo land as it isn't going to happen. You really need to realise it's here to stay and we cannot control it and that is that.

 

[Bletchleyite]

No, they're not, they're just delaying the inevitable, perhaps even making it worse, as the nursing homes are filling up with new customers. Even SAGE admitted that the problem with lockdowns is that there'd no exit strategy. (And that's before we consider that London is probably at the cusp of herd immunity already)

There may indeed be no exit strategy - the measures may have to be permanent if no vaccine or treatment is found or the virus does not mutate to become less deadly.

There is very little evidence of London being at the cusp of herd immunity. A few people think it is, but that's all. Though the new T-cell test may help to prove one way or the other, as T-cells and antibodies are the only known mechanisms that would affect it.

No it doesn't. We were told relaxing all these measures would cause a massive increase in numbers, hasn't happened. How long then do you suggest we live like this as at current rate of infections it'll be about 200 years? I'm not living the rest of my life like this because paranoid people want to see infections down to zero. Living in cloud Cuckoo land as it isn't going to happen. You really need to realise it's here to stay and we cannot control it and that is that.

It is here to stay, yes. And as a result, so are social distancing measures. I hate the term "new normal", but that's what it is.

 

[Huntergreed]

There may indeed be no exit strategy - the measures may have to be permanent if no vaccine or treatment is found or the virus does not mutate to become less deadly.

I’m sorry but this is absolutely ludicrous, there’s no way on earth these measures can be sustainable for anything other than the short term. People won’t stand for it, businesses will collapse, the economy will struggle. People are only willing now because they have been told it’s temporary, but there’s absolutely no way these measures will ever become permanent.