How much longer will social distancing go on for in the UK?

[Scrotnig]

Some railways are reopening now.

Yes, with mandatory masks. I can't wear them.

 

[initiation]

Yesterday at Norwich station I saw a mother telling her masked-up child - probably all of about 4 years old - to remember to stay 2 metres away from people. Very sad

My cousin's toddler was scared to meet someone a few nights ago, also he wouldn't eat his dinner while at his grand parents house. All because he (a 2 year old) was worried that "the virus will get" him

 

[BJames]

My cousin's toddler was scared to meet someone a few nights ago, also he wouldn't eat his dinner while at his grand parents house. All because he (a 2 year old) was worried that "the virus will get" him

This fear that has been stamped into children must be stamped out as soon as possible. Horrific mental health consequences and potential consequences for education and interaction for a significant part of their life if they go to school believing they can't go near others - how will they make friends and develop?

 

[CaptainHaddock]

I took this screenshot off the BBC website today of what the original COVID alert level chart stated:

View attachment 80703

Never mind level 2, surely we're pretty close to level 1 now!

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

Never mind level 2, surely we're pretty close to level 1 now!

I wouldn't go so far to say level 2, as the case numbers are still rather high on a daily basis - the rolling average is somewhere around 560.

Scotland, on the other hand, is seeing a rolling average of 8 cases per day, so level 2 may be more suitable there.

560 is 70x greater than 8, but the population of England is only 10x greater than Scotland.

 

[BJames]

I wouldn't go so far to say level 2, as the case numbers are still rather high on a daily basis - the rolling average is somewhere around 600.

Scotland, on the other hand, is seeing a rolling average of 8 cases per day, so level 2 may be more suitable there.

Scotland is definitely level 2. Hard to see how the definition of "number of cases and transmission is low" doesn't fit the current scenario in Scotland.

 

[Huntergreed]

Scotland is definitely level 2. Hard to see how the definition of "number of cases and transmission is low" doesn't fit the current scenario in Scotland.

Yet our measures are considerably stricter than those in England, elimination in Scotland is impossible given that the border cannot be closed to England, but she’s unwilling to accept any background noise (indeed 18 cases on Friday she said was a huge cause for concern!), how are we going to get out of this without trashing the economy using this approach up here?

 

[Bantamzen]

It may be an unpopular opinion, but I'd much rather stand outside the local supermarket for 5 minutes whilst they limit capacity, than wear a mask for 30+ minutes inside to do a weekly shop.

Don't be surprised if some supermarkets start to mandate wearing masks in queues if the ruling comes in for England....

Well this pub landlord isn't taking any chances:

Coronavirus: Pub landlord installs electric fence around bar

Jonny McFadden says the fence is to remind people about social distancing when they are drinking.

www.bbc.co.uk

View attachment 80699

On second thoughts this might fit better in the "Has the world gone mad?" thread.

He said the fence worked because "people keep away from it, people are like sheep".​

A great way to promote your business.... ​

 

[Scrotnig]

Well this pub landlord isn't taking any chances:

Coronavirus: Pub landlord installs electric fence around bar

Jonny McFadden says the fence is to remind people about social distancing when they are drinking.

www.bbc.co.uk

View attachment 80699

On second thoughts this might fit better in the "Has the world gone mad?" thread.

What a stupid idea. It very clearly cannot be turned on because if it was the landlord would be locked up the second anyone touched it, and potentially even before anyone did.

Good way to dissuade anyone other than regulars coming in though....which is presumably what they are looking to do.

 

[Belperpete]

This year is a complete write off. Can't imagine what Christmas is going to feel like.

Depends what your ideal Christmas is. If a time to spend with family, then I don't see that it will be much different to usual. However, if your ideal Christmas is crowded shopping centres, then it may well be very different.

 

[nlogax]

A great way to promote your business....

Actually it is.. regardless of what we think about him or his stupid fence! Bet he's doing well out of all this publicity.

 

[Belperpete]

My cousin's toddler was scared to meet someone a few nights ago, also he wouldn't eat his dinner while at his grand parents house. All because he (a 2 year old) was worried that "the virus will get" him

At that kind of age, parents should be shielding toddlers from such fears, not indoctrinating them with their own paranoias.

 

[Bantamzen]

Actually it is.. regardless of what we think about him or his stupid fence! Bet he's doing well out of all this publicity.

Only if people are actually going. Given that some Cornish residents have been politely telling visitors to do one, and now he's calling his punters sheep, visiting his pub will be about as appealing as a night in Royston Vasey....

 

[yorkie]

Yes, with mandatory masks. I can't wear them.

You don't have to wear them if you are covered by an exemption, but that's not really a subject for this thread.

This thread is in danger of becoming a bit of a "master thread", so just a gentle reminder that this is to discuss how much longer will social distancing go on for in the UK

 

[Huntergreed]

Should masks reduce the need for social distancing in theory? If so, then surely social distancing could be going in the not too distant future and when cases are low enough we just use masks for mitigation? In that case, one could argue social distancing could “last” not too much longer.

 

[trebor79]

Should masks reduce the need for social distancing in theory? If so, then surely social distancing could be going in the not too distant future and when cases are low enough we just use masks for mitigation? In that case, one could argue social distancing could “last” not too much longer.

Forget it, they've already messaged extensively that masks are in addition to rather than instead of social distancing. I guess that's a tacit acknowledgment that masks do f-all but there you go.
Actually, I don't mind SD, now that people have chilled out a bit. Government should have just let us get on with it and as things improved it would have dropped away naturally (being guidance, not law).

 

[Belperpete]

Well they have in mine. Two small restaurants (family run) have bitten the dust; at least two barbers have not yet re-opened (and don't look like doing so); our branches of Rymans and Edinburgh Wool Mill remain closed, the local market has only about a half of the regular stallholders attending; even our branch of Greggs has permanently closed. That's before I look in any detail. Mrs Enthusiast and I went for our first meal out in 17 weeks last Saturday - our favourite Chinese which we have been frequenting for probably 25 years. He is also a family affair - husband, wife and son. Speaking to him he said he was on the point of winding up. Another week or two would have done for him definitely. Now he's had to lose a third of his tables due to the "guidance" and he said it will be touch and go whether he survives. The good thing was he was near enough full (well two-thirds full anyway) which surprised me given the fear that the government instilled in the population four months ago. Some of the shops that are open have imposed absolutely ridiculous distancing requirements and I imagine many of them will eventually go under. To under play the economic consequences of social distancing is, IMHO, far worse than downplaying the risks posed by the virus. The UK economy relies very heavily on small businesses, especially retail and hospitality and they have been and continue to be absolutely crippled by some of this nonsense.

Out of that whole long post, you mention only two businesses that have actually closed permanently due to lockdown. Both restaurants, a trade that is in decline as people increasingly turn to deliveroo type services. All the rest is paranoia about businesses that might not have survived but actually have. As I said, at the start of the lockdown I was extremely concerned about the effect it would have on the economy, but my fears have turned out to be unfounded. There has been no problem in the government borrowing money in order to support the economy - investors are even paying negative interest rates to do so. Yes, some businesses will fail, but the majority of those failing are those that were already on shaky ground. Yet still people are peddling this economic paranoia.

There was another long wail on the radio last night about the future of theatre, another business model that was in terminal decline long before covid. If this had happened a few decades ago, no doubt there would have been interminable hand-wringing about its effect on music hall and working mens clubs.

 

[Belperpete]

It is funny that I have never seen it mentioned in the media any spike in COVID cases as a result of any of those examples. It is as if the media are only interested in broadcasting bad news.

I suggest you need to be more discerning in your selection of media. The subject was covered in detail on Radio 4's Fact Check programme.

 

[Bantamzen]

I suggest you need to be more discerning in your selection of media. The subject was covered in detail on Radio 4's Fact Check programme.

There's no need to choose media options, the source data is right here:

England Summary | Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK

Official Coronavirus (COVID-19) disease situation dashboard with latest data in the UK.

coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk

 

[Belperpete]

Should masks reduce the need for social distancing in theory? If so, then surely social distancing could be going in the not too distant future and when cases are low enough we just use masks for mitigation? In that case, one could argue social distancing could “last” not too much longer.

That's my take on it, once people are wearing masks, the social distancing can be dropped. But you need to get people accustomed to wearing masks first. Outdoors, SD is only rarely needed anyway, such as in queues when you are likely to be in close proximity for some time. However, in a semi-enclosed bus shelter, how long should you wait before you put on the covering? Unfortunately most people don't do nuanced, they want a simple yes you do or no you don't.

 

[Domh245]

I was extremely concerned about the effect it would have on the economy, but my fears have turned out to be unfounded.

A 25% contraction in the 2nd quarter isn't enough to be concerning!?

UK economy rebounds more slowly than expected

The UK's economy grew 1.8% in May as the lockdown began to ease, less than economists had predicted.

www.bbc.co.uk

UK economy rebounds more slowly than expected

The UK's economy rebounded more slowly than expected in May, growing just 1.8% from the previous month, as the gradual easing of lockdown had a modest impact.

Manufacturing and house building showed signs of recovery in May as some firms saw staff return to work.

But the Office for National Statistics said the economy was "in the doldrums".

As a result of big contractions in previous months, the UK economy is now 24.5% smaller than in was in February, the ONS added.

(aside, interesting to see that the BBC leads that story with the 1.8% growth in May rather than the considerably more pressing 25% contraction over the quarter - make of that what you will!)

That's my take on it, once people are wearing masks, the social distancing can be dropped. But you need to get people accustomed to wearing masks first. Outdoors, SD is only rarely needed anyway, such as in queues when you are likely to be in close proximity for some time. However, in a semi-enclosed bus shelter, how long should you wait before you put on the covering? Unfortunately most people don't do nuanced, they want a simple yes you do or no you don't.

The problem however is that masks really aren't as effective as the other social distancing measures (distancing, washing hands, not touching your face, etc). By all means the govt can force everyone to wear masks and then reduce social distancing, but that will slow the decay of the virus.

 

[Belperpete]

A 25% contraction in the 2nd quarter isn't enough to be concerning!?

Not if its only temporary. As an economist said on the radio recently, in normal times, such figures would spell economic argameddon, but these are not normal times. Has the stock market collapsed? No. Business investors are reasonably confident that this is only temporary.

To be honest, I am surprised that there was any growth at all in May, as I don't recall much in the way of lockdown easing then, so unlike you, I am not surprised that the BBC led with that. I was surprised, however, that the economy only contracted by 25% - I was expecting it to be far, far worse than that.

 

[Domh245]

I'd certainly suggest that it is far from temporary - all indications that the govt is planning for a second spike in the winter, and even the time limits of the emergency legislation would hint at things being severely disrupted into 2021 at least. The global situation is also far from rosy, which should also be sounding notes of caution

In May whilst notionally still in lockdown we saw many things begin to reopen where they hadn't necessarily been forced to close, things such as McDonalds, Garden Centres, and Starbucks. Economists had predicted a 5% bounce as a result of that compared to the low of April, but that didn't materialise

You are free to think that a 25% contraction isn't too bad, and it could have been worse but I'm going to have to disagree (and stop before getting too off-topic!)

 

[Huntergreed]

I'd certainly suggest that it is far from temporary - all indications that the govt is planning for a second spike in the winter, and even the time limits of the emergency legislation would hint at things being severely disrupted into 2021 at least. The global situation is also far from rosy, which should also be sounding notes of caution

In May whilst notionally still in lockdown we saw many things begin to reopen where they hadn't necessarily been forced to close, things such as McDonalds, Garden Centres, and Starbucks. Economists had predicted a 5% bounce as a result of that compared to the low of April, but that didn't materialise

You are free to think that a 25% contraction isn't too bad, and it could have been worse but I'm going to have to disagree (and stop before getting too off-topic!)

Exactly. Whilst I don't think it's the correct approach, I do genuinely fear we may be facing a second, perhaps longer, lockdown through the winter as cases rise again (I would say perhaps November - March). Whilst I think this would be completely devastating in so many different ways, I think that may well be what they're planning for, and they've stated consistently they wouldn't rule out another lockdown if required.

I especially feel for the young generation who are losing out on job/career opportunities for what is essentially a 0 risk virus for them.

Back on topic, how much higher is the transmission in places with 1m or no social distancing and would this be a viable thing to do in the near future? For the sake of our economy, I think it almost has to be!

 

[Howardh]

Exactly. Whilst I don't think it's the correct approach, I do genuinely fear we may be facing a second, perhaps longer, lockdown through the winter as cases rise again (I would say perhaps November - March). Whilst I think this would be completely devastating in so many different ways, I think that may well be what they're planning for, and they've stated consistently they wouldn't rule out another lockdown if required.

I especially feel for the young generation who are losing out on job/career opportunities for what is essentially a 0 risk virus for them.

Back on topic, how much higher is the transmission in places with 1m or no social distancing and would this be a viable thing to do in the near future? For the sake of our economy, I think it almost has to be!

I imagine the nightingale hospitals will remain, but they just need the staff to fill them. Another worry, the new immgration rules include easier access for nurses/doctors, but not care workers as far as I know. Which ever side of Brexit you are on, surely that has to be ridiculous? we NEED care workers, especially as back-up if the current workforce takes time off for illness.

 

[BJames]

Yet our measures are considerably stricter than those in England, elimination in Scotland is impossible given that the border cannot be closed to England, but she’s unwilling to accept any background noise (indeed 18 cases on Friday she said was a huge cause for concern!), how are we going to get out of this without trashing the economy using this approach up here?

I don't get it. Just now, they've announced no new deaths in Scotland for 6 days and only 3 new cases in 24 hours. If this isn't level 2 I don't know what is. She should start reducing the strictness of restrictions now, surely.

 

[adc82140]

There won't be a second national lockdown. The Irish Republic has ruled it out, France has ruled it out. The UK would be an outlier. We only got away with it this time because absolutely every other European country bar Sweden was doing it at the same time.

Wouldn't like to bet against more Leicester type scenarios though. Makes me glad I live out in the country.

 

[Ian Cunningham]

I don't get it. Just now, they've announced no new deaths in Scotland for 6 days and only 3 new cases in 24 hours. If this isn't level 2 I don't know what is. She should start reducing the strictness of restrictions now, surely.

This week has significant relaxations as we're now in Phase 3 of the roadmap - pubs, tourism, hotels, restaurants, museums etc all able to open. much more flexibilty on meeting up outdoors and indoors.
Public transport is ramping up significantly too.
There's a definite return of general bustle in our local high street (along with the return of the traffic jams!)

Still quite a lot of stuff not being reviewed until the end of the month but, as long as it doesn't all go tits up in th next couple of weeks, I think we'll see further easing

 

[scotrail158713]

I don't get it. Just now, they've announced no new deaths in Scotland for 6 days and only 3 new cases in 24 hours. If this isn't level 2 I don't know what is. She should start reducing the strictness of restrictions now, surely.

You can’t forget there was a sharp increase of...wait for it...18 cases on Friday. According to Sturgeon that was a source of concern - a total of around 0.000003% of the population testing positive in one day. It’s terrifying that she is so concerned by it.
According to today’s statistics (https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/) there are just over 300 people hospitalised in the whole country - if that’s risking the virus going out of control, then NHS capacity is the issue, not Covid itself. (It should be said as well that these are all in and around Glasgow, Edinburgh and Aberdeen - nowhere largely rural)
Any sensible person would ease the restrictions considering the level of infections we have, but unfortunately that doesn’t seem to be Sturgeon and she seems to enjoy the power she has.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

I don't get it. Just now, they've announced no new deaths in Scotland for 6 days and only 3 new cases in 24 hours. If this isn't level 2 I don't know what is. She should start reducing the strictness of restrictions now, surely.

The main issue is that the COVID alert level system is UK-wide, not specific the devolved administrations.