Aspirations for Ely services

[DynamicSpirit]

Moderator note: Split from https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...increase-to-£200m.201452/page-16#post-4615482

So putting all this together, it seems to me like a reasonable aspiration for Ely would be:

• Cambridge-Peterborough-Birmingham going from one to two tph
• Ipswich-Peterborough becoming hourly
• London-Kings Lynn becoming half-hourly by extending an existing London-Cambridge service, which I believe is a long standing aspiration
• Cambridge-Norwith becoming half-hourly. Actually I suspect, once East-West rail is built and given the size of Norwich, it won't be too long before we're looking for 2 fast trains and 1 slow train per hour on that route.
• More freight from Felixstowe. I have no idea how many currently run and how many a reasonable aspiration to run would be?

So that's something like 3.5 maybe 4.5 more passenger tph plus I don't know how many freights.

Wisbech would then inevitably come behind all those in priority. So from the point of view of those hoping for a Wisbech re-opening, I guess the hope would be that making capacity at Ely North for an additional 5-6 tph turns out not to be that much more expensive than making capacity for an extra 4-5tph, and it's therefore considered worthwhile future-proofing the eventual Ely upgrade by providing that extra capacity.

 

[cle]

So putting all this together, it seems to me like a reasonable aspiration for Ely would be:

• Cambridge-Peterborough-Birmingham going from one to two tph
• Ipswich-Peterborough becoming hourly
• London-Kings Lynn becoming half-hourly by extending an existing London-Cambridge service, which I believe is a long standing aspiration
• Cambridge-Norwith becoming half-hourly. Actually I suspect, once East-West rail is built and given the size of Norwich, it won't be too long before we're looking for 2 fast trains and 1 slow train per hour on that route.
• More freight from Felixstowe. I have no idea how many currently run and how many a reasonable aspiration to run would be?

So that's something like 3.5 maybe 4.5 more passenger tph plus I don't know how many freights.

Wisbech would then inevitably come behind all those in priority. So from the point of view of those hoping for a Wisbech re-opening, I guess the hope would be that making capacity at Ely North for an additional 5-6 tph turns out not to be that much more expensive than making capacity for an extra 4-5tph, and it's therefore considered worthwhile future-proofing the eventual Ely upgrade by providing that extra capacity.

This is an excellent post, and shows the reality of the expectations through Ely, and competing growth proposals.

Perhaps the odd one or two of these could be delivered now, but fair to say that all make more sense than Wisbech (which I don't argue against, it is just low on the list). And as the post mentions, potential additional growth, like EWR. Or maybe one day, a Cambridge to ECML (Leeds?) bi-mode service, when HS2 opens.

So if the money can be found, can a good chunk of that ostensibly be directed to Ely works? Wisbech seemingly cannot happen without it - a shuttle to March would be absurd.

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

So putting all this together, it seems to me like a reasonable aspiration for Ely would be:

• Cambridge-Peterborough-Birmingham going from one to two tph
• Ipswich-Peterborough becoming hourly
• London-Kings Lynn becoming half-hourly by extending an existing London-Cambridge service, which I believe is a long standing aspiration
• Cambridge-Norwith becoming half-hourly. Actually I suspect, once East-West rail is built and given the size of Norwich, it won't be too long before we're looking for 2 fast trains and 1 slow train per hour on that route.
• More freight from Felixstowe. I have no idea how many currently run and how many a reasonable aspiration to run would be?

So that's something like 3.5 maybe 4.5 more passenger tph plus I don't know how many freights.

Wisbech would then inevitably come behind all those in priority. So from the point of view of those hoping for a Wisbech re-opening, I guess the hope would be that making capacity at Ely North for an additional 5-6 tph turns out not to be that much more expensive than making capacity for an extra 4-5tph, and it's therefore considered worthwhile future-proofing the eventual Ely upgrade by providing that extra capacity.

1) no capacity at Birmingham New Street
2) isn’t this happening anyway??
3) could you not extend the Ely terminators to Kings Lynn?
4) Maybe post EWR as a long term aspiration (maybe 2030’s)
5) Could do post-EWR as trains can then run via EWR instead of running through the congested North London Line

Back on topic, could this reopening be submitted to the restoring your railway’s accelerating existing proposals fund?

 

[The Planner]

1) would work if it was an extension of a Leicester. Don't assume it is an extra.

 

[Bald Rick]

1) no capacity at Birmingham New Street
2) isn’t this happening anyway??
3) could you not extend the Ely terminators to Kings Lynn?
4) Maybe post EWR as a long term aspiration (maybe 2030’s)
5) Could do post-EWR as trains can then run via EWR instead of running through the congested North London Line

Back on topic, could this reopening be submitted to the restoring your railway’s accelerating existing proposals fund?

1) is an extension of the B’ham Leicester terminators
2) no, not without Ely being sorted
3) yes, that is the plan. Needs Ely sorting, and a lot of level crossing works north thereof
4) could probably be done post Ely being sorted, subject to Trowse swingbridge (which may be ok).
5) no use going via EWR if the destination is up the ECML or WCML. Creates more problems than it solves.

 

[Tobbes]

1) is an extension of the B’ham Leicester terminators
2) no, not without Ely being sorted
3) yes, that is the plan. Needs Ely sorting, and a lot of level crossing works north thereof
4) could probably be done post Ely being sorted, subject to Trowse swingbridge (which may be ok).
5) no use going via EWR if the destination is up the ECML or WCML. Creates more problems than it solves.

I'm surprised by (5), @Bald Rick; I would have thought that the value in getting all freight not for London/SW off the GEML south and NLL would mean that EWR intermodals would be quite an attractive option (indeed, for Bristol/Wales via Oxford)

 

[gallafent]

I'm surprised by (5), @Bald Rick; I would have thought that the value in getting all freight not for London/SW off the GEML south and NLL would mean that EWR intermodals would be quite an attractive option (indeed, for Bristol/Wales via Oxford)

Wouldn't that also depend on four-tracking Oxford<->Didcot, to give enough capacity?

 

[Tobbes]

Wouldn't that also depend on four-tracking Oxford<->Didcot, to give enough capacity?

Probably, but I thought that this was happening anyway?

 

[gallafent]

[re 4-tracking Oxford-Didcot]

Probably, but I thought that this was happening anyway?

Hmm, I thought it was more of an “ambition”, per this thread and other bits of news around the web easily found by googling: https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/oxfordshire-rail-corridor-study.200066/#post-4428804

(In fact that's only taking about Oxford-Radley four-tracking, rather than all the way down to Didcot …)

I might well have missed something somewhere which has brought that forward of course!

 

[Roast Veg]

I'm surprised by (5), @Bald Rick; I would have thought that the value in getting all freight not for London/SW off the GEML south and NLL would mean that EWR intermodals would be quite an attractive option (indeed, for Bristol/Wales via Oxford)

Bald Rick refers specifically to the ECML and WCML here, for which the ECML is the long way around, and the WCML junction points the wrong way. EWR may not even be putting in loops for freight (I can't remember what the result of the discussion was), since the Wales and Bristol are the only routes that might be able to make use of it.

Even servies coming from Birmingham that can't go via Leicester don't have a junction at any of Oxford, Bicester, or Bletchley that could be considered useful. The best path would be via Cheltnham and Swindon, and would still require 4 tracking Didcot to Oxford!

 

[Bald Rick]

I'm surprised by (5), @Bald Rick; I would have thought that the value in getting all freight not for London/SW off the GEML south and NLL would mean that EWR intermodals would be quite an attractive option (indeed, for Bristol/Wales via Oxford)

If you can work out how to get a freight train from Felixstowe to the WCML via Cambridge and EWR under any current infrastructure proposal that doesn’t add significantly to the journey time, then there’s a well paid job for you in consultancy!

 

[Roast Veg]

If you can work out how to get a freight train from Felixstowe to the WCML via Cambridge and EWR under any current infrastructure proposal that doesn’t add significantly to the journey time, then there’s a well paid job for you in consultancy!

Piece of cake! Aylesbury->Princes Risborough->Greenford->Ealing->Acton Wells->Harlesden

Of course I took some liberties with the "doesn't add significantly to the journey time" aspect.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Piece of cake! Aylesbury->Princes Risborough->Greenford->Ealing->Acton Wells->Harlesden

Of course I took some liberties with the "doesn't add significantly to the journey time" aspect.

Haha very good. Maybe I'm missing something but how can you get from Felixstowe to Cambridge without reversing?

 

[Midnight Sun]

Haha very good. Maybe I'm missing something but how can you get from Felixstowe to Cambridge without reversing?

Yes can you take the new curve north of Ispwich station

 

[jfowkes]

Yes can you take the new curve north of Ispwich station View attachment 79175

Unless you send everything down the single-track (except for one loop at Dullingham) Newmarket-Cambridge line, you still need a reversal at Ely, I think.

 

[Roast Veg]

And that's before you realise the journey is 6 hours long just to get as far as Willesden.

 

[Tobbes]

Unless you send everything down the single-track (except for one loop at Dullingham) Newmarket-Cambridge line, you still need a reversal at Ely, I think.

True, but this is another section crying out for redoubling (except Newmarket tunnel), and to maximise the connectivity benefits of EWR, I expect this to happen (along with the reinstatement of the SW-N curve at Newmarket to allow for Cambridge to Soham trains.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Yes can you take the new curve north of Ispwich station View attachment 79175

Ah thanks. I didn't know about that. I guess I have an excuse if it's a new curve

 

[Bald Rick]

True, but this is another section crying out for redoubling (except Newmarket tunnel), and to maximise the connectivity benefits of EWR, I expect this to happen (along with the reinstatement of the SW-N curve at Newmarket to allow for Cambridge to Soham trains.

No plans for redoubling at all.

 

[Class 170101]

3) could you not extend the Ely terminators to Kings Lynn?

Could also do portion working for Wisbeach of this service but this doesn't solve Ely North.

One would hope that if Bo Jo and Sunak have any sense Ely North might be a scheme to unlock some of these improvements in post Covid World.

 

[bspahh]

Could also do portion working for Wisbeach of this service but this doesn't solve Ely North.

You would need to add in electrification from Ely North to Wisbech to the bill.

 

[Class 170101]

You would need to add in electrification from Ely North to Wisbech to the bill.

Depending on train type but yes a cost one way or another

 

[PTR 444]

I've been thinking about services around Ely recently. With the region being one of the fastest growing in England, I agree that there should be aspirations for more trains in the area. Here are my thoughts on the OP's suggestions:

Cambridge - Peterborough - Birmingham
I don't think this needs to be increased to 2tph. There are plenty of trains on the lines east of Peterborough and adding more will just breach their capacity. Alternatively, you could extend the Birmingham - Leicester short working to Peterborough and combine it with the P'boro - Ipswich train, but i'm not sure if this is the best use of resources as I will explain below.
Ipswich - Peterborough
I agree that this should become hourly and extended west of Peterborough to improve connectivity. I mentioned above that it could be combined with the XC Leicester - Birmingham service (giving 2tph to Oakham and Melton Mowbray in the process), but I also think East Anglia deserves a service to the North East and it may make more sense to extend it up the ECML to Leeds or York, particularly after HS2 frees up capacity on that line. Another idea could be to have the ends of this service could be swapped with the Norwich - Derby service (post 2021) so you have Ipswich - Derby via Nottingham and Norwich - Leeds via the ECML instead.
London - Kings Lynn
Strongly agree with extending the Ely terminator to King's Lynn, giving the Fen line 2tph throughout the day. The only thing is whether paths would be available through the single track section on that line.
Cambridge - Norwich
I agree with having 2tph between these two cities, however I think one of these should be a limited stop express service which continues to Bristol via East West Rail. From Norwich to Cambridge, this would call only at Thetford, Ely and possibly Cambridge North. The existing Norwich - Stansted service would be retained as the local train on that route.

In addition to these, I would also propose the following:

• Extend one of the GA Liverpool Street - Cambridge services to Wisbech via Newmarket. This would utilise a new chord between the two lines in Newmarket and serve new stations at Cherry Hinton, Fulbourn and Soham.
• Allow the EMR Norwich - Peterborough and points west service to bypass Ely by using the avoiding loop north of the station. This will eliminate the need for trains to reverse at that station. Same goes for freight heading in that direction.

Thoughts?

 

[PTR 444]

Following on from my post above, here's a map showing how I think Ely should be served. Note the purple line bypassing Ely to the north via the western curve.

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

Following on from my post above, here's a map showing how I think Ely should be served. Note the purple line bypassing Ely to the north via the western curve.

Is there any capacity on the Newark Crossing I don’t think there is. And HS2 is not opening until 2035 at least for it to have any impact.

Derby to Nottingham already has 2 XC Services per hour, 1 Crewe to Nottingham from 2021 and 1 Nottingham to Matlock service

 

[PTR 444]

Is there any capacity on the Newark Crossing I don’t think there is. And HS2 is not opening until 2035 at least for it to have any impact.

Derby to Nottingham already has 2 XC Services per hour, 1 Crewe to Nottingham from 2021 and 1 Nottingham to Matlock service

I wonder if the Crewe to Nottingham could be combined with the post-2021 Derby - Norwich service in the long term (or Derby - Ipswich like I have shown on the map).

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

I wonder if the Crewe to Nottingham could be combined with the post-2021 Derby - Norwich service in the long term (or Derby - Ipswich like I have shown on the map).

That would mean Derby to Nottingham loses 1tph

 

[David Goddard]

Taking the EMR trains round the west curve results in fewer trains between Ely and Peterborough than now so that would be retrograde change. Better for them all to come into Ely still.