Long term social distancing: Impact on public life & public transport?

[baz962]

Thanks. This is what I'd expect, that it does depend very much on the location and service, i.e. who is using that train and for what purpose.

Have you noticed any age/sex/ethnic changes from the normal mix?

To be honest , I hadn't thought to look at it that way. And of course sometimes you need to hear an accent . We do seem to transport a lot of builder types , but we have several hospital's on the route's I drive and a prison or two . Mind you I guess in London, you are never far from either. Thinking back to yesterday and I noticed a much bigger percentage of males , but one day wouldn't be the best . I will see what I notice over the next three days.

 

[ChrisC]

I can definitely tell you that some train's are v quiet and some are quite busy still. I reckon it depends on the toc too. Commuting into work , I have quite often shared eight and twelve car train's with a few people and had whole coaches to myself. Driven and passed on some busy one's , once in London.

Last night on the local tv news, I think it was BBC East Midlands Today, they spoke to a train manager on the MML and showed you just a couple of passengers sitting in an empty carriage. The train manager said that many of their Sheffield and Nottingham to London trains are currently running with only about half a dozen passengers.
They are currently running hourly from both Sheffield and Nottingham to London. I suppose with current social distancing they still have plenty of spare capacity if passenger numbers increase during the coming weeks, especially if they use their HST’s.

No one knows at the moment how quickly passenger numbers will rise as the lockdown is slowly lifted during the coming months, or how long the current social distancing measures will remain the same. If people begin to travel by train to work and for other business purposes in any numbers will there be any spare seats for leisure travel once that is permitted, even at a restricted level. It is going to be very difficult to travel by train using TOC’s such as EMR, Northern and XC with their limited capacity. How are they going to cope with any numbers with 2 and 3 carriage trains between major cities like Nottingham and Birmingham, Nottingham and Manchester, Sheffield and Leeds, and XC routes using 4 and 5 carriage Voyagers.

 

[baz962]

Last night on the local tv news, I think it was BBC East Midlands Today, they spoke to a train manager on the MML and showed you just a couple of passengers sitting in an empty carriage. The train manager said that many of their Sheffield and Nottingham to London trains are currently running with only about half a dozen passengers.
They are currently running hourly from both Sheffield and Nottingham to London. I suppose with current social distancing they still have plenty of spare capacity if passenger numbers increase during the coming weeks, especially if they use their HST’s.

No one knows at the moment how quickly passenger numbers will rise as the lockdown is slowly lifted during the coming months, or how long the current social distancing measures will remain the same. If people begin to travel by train to work and for other business purposes in any numbers will there be any spare seats for leisure travel once that is permitted, even at a restricted level. It is going to be very difficult to travel by train using TOC’s such as EMR, Northern and XC with their limited capacity. How are they going to cope with any numbers with 2 and 3 carriage trains between major cities like Nottingham and Birmingham, Nottingham and Manchester, Sheffield and Leeds, and XC routes using 4 and 5 carriage Voyagers.

I'm not arguing for or against , neither can I answer the questions that you ask. As a driver though , I have driven some busy train's in London . I also pointed out that I am quite often on empty carriages as a commuter and I am now on a 12 car on the mml , as I am writing this post and have seen three other people. My carriage is empty , as are the one's either side.

 

[37424]

I think if your at the older end of the age spectrum and male in particular even in good health your probably better off avoiding public transport if you can. For me before the lockdown I wasn't using public transport anyway for my essential journeys only for leisure and when we are allowed to make leisure journeys again those will firmly be in the Car. For younger people in good health it appears to be lees of a risk, and regardless of age if you don't drive or are a regular commuter into the big cities you probably don't have much alternative unless you can work from home.

So once the lockdown is eased I think commuter journeys into the big cities will come back reasonably strongly, but those routes more dependent on leisure journeys and where the car alternative for commuting is viable will be quiet for some time.

The effect of working from home remains to be seen, many more advanced companies have had the capability to work from home in a good many cases for years, but some managers don't really like the idea of people working from home and some companies only now seem to discovering the capabilities of this option.

 

[yorksrob]

I think if your at the older end of the age spectrum and male in particular even in good health your probably better off avoiding public transport if you can. For me before the lockdown I wasn't using public transport anyway for my essential journeys only for leisure and when we are allowed to make leisure journeys again those will firmly be in the Car. For younger people in good health it appears to be lees of a risk, and regardless of age if you don't drive or are a regular commuter into the big cities you probably don't have much alternative unless you can work from home.

So once the lockdown is eased I think commuter journeys into the big cities will come back reasonably strongly, but those routes more dependent on leisure journeys and where the car alternative for commuting is viable will be quiet for some time.

The effect of working from home remains to be seen, many more advanced companies have had the capability to work from home in a good many cases for years, but some managers don't really like the idea of people working from home and some companies only now seem to discovering the capabilities of this option.

Personally, I think the opposite. I think commuting will be down permanently. Leisure will bounce back.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Personally, I think the opposite. I think commuting will be down permanently. Leisure will bounce back.

That would be my view. And it has big upsides - leisure travel isn't as peaky (give or take Friday evening) so you make better use of your resources and don't need as many (think all-week Saturday timetables) and leisure passengers generally pay at least as much as commuters per day if not more.

Edit: though I suspect reduced business travel may well drive a Pendolino through the business model of the likes of Avanti's outrageous Anytime fares.

 

[ChrisC]

I think if your at the older end of the age spectrum and male in particular even in good health your probably better off avoiding public transport if you can. For me before the lockdown I wasn't using public transport anyway for my essential journeys only for leisure and when we are allowed to make leisure journeys again those will firmly be in the Car. For younger people in good health it appears to be lees of a risk, and regardless of age if you don't drive or are a regular commuter into the big cities you probably don't have much alternative unless you can work from home.

That’s exactly what I will probably be doing. I wasn’t too worried about Coronavirus at the beginning, but now as a 63 year old male, relatively fit but with slightly higher than normal blood pressure, I’m not so sure. Since taking early retirement, I’ve been going away most months for a UK break, usually travelling there by train, staying in a hotel and travelling around using rail and bus rover tickets. I don’t think that I will be doing that again at least for the rest of this year. Once hotels or perhaps even holiday cottages begin to open, I will probably book somewhere out in the country, in a non tourist area, travel there by car and use my car whilst there but also do lots of walking. I’m not sure whether I will even be doing that much before September at the earliest. I hope I’m proved wrong because I love travelling around both by train and bus and will really miss it.

 

[Killingworth]

Personally, I think the opposite. I think commuting will be down permanently. Leisure will bounce back.

I'd agree. After 6 months of Saturday strikes, meaning no stopping service in the Hope Valley, on the first Saturday back you could barely get aboard. The return won't be as fast as that, but young people will lead the way. Senior Railcard holders may take a lot longer.

Many of those who can work from home, and will have done for months rather than an odd day a week, will be quite happy to forego the unproductive travel time.

 

[yorksrob]

I'd agree. After 6 months of Saturday strikes, meaning no stopping service in the Hope Valley, on the first Saturday back you could barely get aboard. The return won't be as fast as that, but young people will lead the way. Senior Railcard holders may take a lot longer.

Many of those who can work from home, and will have done for months rather than an odd day a week, will be quite happy to forego the unproductive travel time.

Indeed. I think people will reduce risk by travelling where and when they want to, rather than to an office every day.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Indeed. I think people will reduce risk by travelling where and when they want to, rather than to an office every day.

As someone who often goes to the office to alleviate boredom but basically never needs to, I suspect I won't be allowed to go into the office. The company will quite reasonably not want to risk the cost of having me off work for a few weeks and potentially never to return if it went badly.

 

[HH]

I'd agree. After 6 months of Saturday strikes, meaning no stopping service in the Hope Valley, on the first Saturday back you could barely get aboard. The return won't be as fast as that, but young people will lead the way. Senior Railcard holders may take a lot longer.

And yet, after the Hatfield rail disaster when we merely had elongated journeys for a few months, it took years for leisure custom to come back. Some people may take a lot of persuading to go back to using public transport for non-essential travel, especially if it is perceived as crowded.

Commuting will definitely take a permanent hit. The CEO of Barclays Bank has said that he thinks that the day of the huge, central office has passed. My daughter works for a large, London Solicitors. Prior to the virus, there was very little WFH. They have been forced to provide WFH infrastructure by the crisis; now they have it, and can see that it works, why would they not take advantage of it to cut their costs? Let's face it, almost every firm will be looking for ways to cut costs; WFH provides an excellent opportunity to do that.

 

[yorksrob]

As someone who often goes to the office to alleviate boredom but basically never needs to, I suspect I won't be allowed to go into the office. The company will quite reasonably not want to risk the cost of having me off work for a few weeks and potentially never to return if it went badly.

Funnilly enough, my employer is having similar conversations and we're looking at rotating time in the office, so there will undoubtedly be less commuting.

 

[37424]

That would be my view. And it has big upsides - leisure travel isn't as peaky (give or take Friday evening) so you make better use of your resources and don't need as many (think all-week Saturday timetables) and leisure passengers generally pay at least as much as commuters per day if not more.

Edit: though I suspect reduced business travel may well drive a Pendolino through the business model of the likes of Avanti's outrageous Anytime fares.

I the long term you may be right, but in the short to medium until a vaccine is found, I think it will disproportionately affect leisure, yes those that can work from home will do so much more but not everybody can work from home, and even some of those that can may not be able to do it all the time.

 

[yorksrob]

And yet, after the Hatfield rail disaster when we merely had elongated journeys for a few months, it took years for leisure custom to come back. Some people may take a lot of persuading to go back to using public transport for non-essential travel, especially if it is perceived as crowded.

Commuting will definitely take a permanent hit. The CEO of Barclays Bank has said that he thinks that the day of the huge, central office has passed. My daughter works for a large, London Solicitors. Prior to the virus, there was very little WFH. They have been forced to provide WFH infrastructure by the crisis; now they have it, and can see that it works, why would they not take advantage of it to cut their costs? Let's face it, almost every firm will be looking for ways to cut costs; WFH provides an excellent opportunity to do that.

Hatfield didn't really make that much of a dent in the long run though. Plus there wasn't the pressure of people being cooped up at home for weeks on end.

 

[baz962]

Just had a thought. If a lot of companies utilise work from home and cut costs , including having less staff . Could it not push others into gig economy and jobs like building ,where you need to commute.

 

[bramling]

And yet, after the Hatfield rail disaster when we merely had elongated journeys for a few months, it took years for leisure custom to come back. Some people may take a lot of persuading to go back to using public transport for non-essential travel, especially if it is perceived as crowded.

I suspect leisure travel will in practice be determined by how people come out of this financially. If there’s loads of job losses and people are generally squeezed then discretionary travel is one of the first things to be binned.

I’m less convinced there will be a long-term shift to working from home. How many people are *really* as productive at home as they would be in the office? Surely a lot of people are technically supposed to be working now, with not everyone in furlough, yet the queue at Halfords this afternoon as I went past on my train home was again snaking round the car park, at least a couple of hundred metres long. Lots of productive home-working going on there!

 

[HH]

Hatfield didn't really make that much of a dent in the long run though. Plus there wasn't the pressure of people being cooped up at home for weeks on end.

Sorry, I disagree about Hatfield. Could still see the effect 5 years later. Of course it will have varied from TOC to TOC as the number of speed restrictions determined how much extra time was in the TT.

I agree that there will be some who will undertake extra journeys once lockdown is lifted, but there will also be some who won't ever use rail again. I don't think it's clear which effect will be larger.

 

[bramling]

Hatfield didn't really make that much of a dent in the long run though. Plus there wasn't the pressure of people being cooped up at home for weeks on end.

I don’t think we can compare this with Hatfield, which was primarily a railway industry fiasco, with the railway gaining the reputation that every journey will be a nightmare.

This is completely different as there’s multiple factors at play - a health emergency which affects different groups in different ways, an economic crisis the extent of which we don’t get know, measures affecting how we live our lives for the foreseeable future, and a rail industry which will be operating under considerable stress again for the foreseeable future.

Too many variables to compare it to Hatfield, and most of these variables have a hefty dose of unknowns in that we don’t really know how things are going to pan out. Things might blow over quickly and we wonder what all the fuss was about, or we might see a deadly second wave. Mystic Meg probably has as much idea as anyone how all this will come together!

 

[Bletchleyite]

I’m less convinced there will be a long-term shift to working from home. How many people are *really* as productive at home as they would be in the office? Surely a lot of people are technically supposed to be working now, with not everyone in furlough, yet the queue at Halfords this afternoon as I went past on my train home was again snaking round the car park, at least a couple of hundred metres long. Lots of productive home-working going on there!

One beneficial aspect of home-working is that you don't have to keep "normal" hours, you can do stuff like take a long lunch break and work later into the evening or get up early and start at 6am or something. It's quite normal for me to go and run an errand mid-afternoon (it's a very good time for supermarket shopping as it's really quiet, for instance) and this by no means suggests I'm not fully doing my job.

This morning for instance I started at 7am to get something finished in time for a status meeting, then had 2 hours for lunch because a curry I was making took longer than planned. This is not a problem when you're not away from home, and if anyone had messaged or phoned I was still there to pick it up.

 

[nedchester]

I’m less convinced there will be a long-term shift to working from home. How many people are *really* as productive at home as they would be in the office? Surely a lot of people are technically supposed to be working now, with not everyone in furlough, yet the queue at Halfords this afternoon as I went past on my train home was again snaking round the car park, at least a couple of hundred metres long. Lots of productive home-working going on there!

As someone who has worked from home for about 5 years. I find I am more productive than wasting time travelling to and from work. Properly managed working from home can be a very good way of working and when businesses realise that they don't have to pay for expensive city centre offices then that could swing things.

 

[yorksrob]

Sorry, I disagree about Hatfield. Could still see the effect 5 years later. Of course it will have varied from TOC to TOC as the number of speed restrictions determined how much extra time was in the TT.

I agree that there will be some who will undertake extra journeys once lockdown is lifted, but there will also be some who won't ever use rail again. I don't think it's clear which effect will be larger.

How many will never use rail again will depend on the availability of a vaccine. Either way, I suspect that this cohort will be limited.

I don’t think we can compare this with Hatfield, which was primarily a railway industry fiasco, with the railway gaining the reputation that every journey will be a nightmare.

This is completely different as there’s multiple factors at play - a health emergency which affects different groups in different ways, an economic crisis the extent of which we don’t get know, measures affecting how we live our lives for the foreseeable future, and a rail industry which will be operating under considerable stress again for the foreseeable future.

Too many variables to compare it to Hatfield, and most of these variables have a hefty dose of unknowns in that we don’t really know how things are going to pan out. Things might blow over quickly and we wonder what all the fuss was about, or we might see a deadly second wave. Mystic Meg probably has as much idea as anyone how all this will come together!

I agree that Hatfield isn't really much of a comparison.

It's difficult to tell, but I suspect that circumstances prompting a long term mass abandonment of public transport would see mass abandonment of all other communal activities.

 

[HH]

Just had a thought. If a lot of companies utilise work from home and cut costs , including having less staff . Could it not push others into gig economy and jobs like building ,where you need to commute.

Or they work locally. Or they set up their own business. Neither of which will require rail.

I suspect leisure travel will in practice be determined by how people come out of this financially. If there’s loads of job losses and people are generally squeezed then discretionary travel is one of the first things to be binned.

I’m less convinced there will be a long-term shift to working from home. How many people are *really* as productive at home as they would be in the office? Surely a lot of people are technically supposed to be working now, with not everyone in furlough, yet the queue at Halfords this afternoon as I went past on my train home was again snaking round the car park, at least a couple of hundred metres long. Lots of productive home-working going on there!

I agree that leisure travel will be heavily affected by the undertaking of leisure pursuits; I also agree that the vast majority of people are going to be worse off (taxes are certain to rise, the £ has effectively been devalued already and demand is likely to exceed supply), even if you ignore the rise in unemployment. However, to remain balanced, there is the possibility that people's values will have permanently changed and the move from objects to experiences is accelerated further.

On WFH, I think the CEO of Barclay's plans are a bit stronger evidence than your feelings. I also know several people who are looking into this for their companies, and everyone is convinced that the lockdown will accelerate the change that has already been happening for several years.

 

[nlogax]

I’m less convinced there will be a long-term shift to working from home. How many people are *really* as productive at home as they would be in the office? Surely a lot of people are technically supposed to be working now, with not everyone in furlough, yet the queue at Halfords this afternoon as I went past on my train home was again snaking round the car park, at least a couple of hundred metres long. Lots of productive home-working going on there!

As with many things, 'it depends'. For me it's a bit like maintaining a balanced diet. I can be hugely hugely productive from working home for a couple of days but it's also easy to get into habits like leaving the work laptop open long into the night. Long hours != productivity - and then I would go into office instead to balance it out.

Having that option open is important to many employees but we may not have that luxury again, so other ways of building structure and instilling self-discipline into a working day become vital instead.

 

[HH]

How many will never use rail again will depend on the availability of a vaccine. Either way, I suspect that this cohort will be limited.

I agree that a vaccine will persuade some to return. Equally the desire to travel more due to having been cooped up is only a short-lived phenomenon. Both cohorts will be limited.

 

[yorksrob]

I agree that a vaccine will persuade some to return. Equally the desire to travel more due to having been cooped up is only a short-lived phenomenon. Both cohorts will be limited.

That's probably true. But once people have made that first journey, they're more likely to get back into the habit.

 

[MDB1images]

I think work from home should increase, before this the arguments was around pollution emissions so if firms can do then they should.
The fact many haven't makes me wonder if the costs saved aren't massive or maybe it's a suspicion of not being able to keep an eye on what's going on!

Personally id imagine more work gets done at home as people have access to work 24/7.

 

[HH]

As with many things, 'it depends'. For me it's a bit like maintaining a balanced diet. I can be hugely hugely productive from working home for a couple of days but it's also easy to get into habits like leaving the work laptop open long into the night. Long hours != productivity - and then I would go into office instead to balance it out.

Having that option open is important to many employees but we may not have that luxury again, so other ways of building structure and instilling self-discipline into a working day become vital instead.

There seems to be a misapprehension here; one that I suspect is very common and why WFH hasn't taken off as fast as it could have pre-covid. I don't know about you, but I have certain tasks that need to be completed within a certain time frame. I could spend 40 hours on a task, or 20. It doesn't really matter if the task gets done to the quality needed.

If I can work more productively then the task takes me less time. It's therefore in my best interests to work productively. If I'm at work, and I'm stuck there to 17:30, 18:00, whatever, then tasks may expand to fill the time.

 

[Killingworth]

And yet, after the Hatfield rail disaster when we merely had elongated journeys for a few months, it took years for leisure custom to come back. Some people may take a lot of persuading to go back to using public transport for non-essential travel, especially if it is perceived as crowded.

I'm sure accidents like Hatfield have an effect, but if you look at this chart would you be able to identify a resulting major downturn in passenger numbers? I'm willing to bet the drop from 2020/21 will be very significant and will last at least 5 years. WFH and an almost inevitable recession will see to that. Total historical national rail passenger journeys in the United Kingdom (UK) from 1950 to 2019

 

[HH]

The fact many haven't makes me wonder if the costs saved aren't massive or maybe it's a suspicion of not being able to keep an eye on what's going on!

I think the latter. Rental costs in London are huge (and you must take into account the cost of space for toilets, kitchens, meeting rooms, etc.) plus you have rates, maintenance, utility costs, cleaning, reception/post room staff, etc. The cost of these offices are astronomical!

 

[HH]

I'm sure accidents like Hatfield have an effect, but if you look at this chart would you be able to identify a resulting major downturn in passenger numbers? I'm willing to bet the drop from 2020/21 will be very significant and will last at least 5 years. WFH and an almost inevitable recession will see to that. Total historical national rail passenger journeys in the United Kingdom (UK) from 1950 to 2019

Even though the chart has 5 year gaps, the crash was at the back end of 2000 and there is clearly a lower growth 2000-2005 than the 5 years either side. Now, it would be rather simplistic to say that was wholly down to Hatfield, but it hardly disproves it.