Long term social distancing: Impact on public life & public transport?

[yorksrob]

The "new normal" may be just not shaking hands, not automatically hugging & kissing friends/relatives, more acceptance of masks on public transport, greater use of tissues or hankies for catching coughs/sneezes, no spitting in public, more awareness of personal space, etc. Easy things like that could well keep the disease controlled to manageable numbers.

I think that that level of change would be well within the perameters of human patterns of behaviour.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think that that level of change would be well within the perameters of human patterns of behaviour.

Particularly as, growing up in the North West in the 80s and 90s, we didn't shake hands (that was for businessmen, and it would have been men these days) and greeting people other than family with hugs wasn't something I particularly came across in the UK until I moved down South in 2001 where it seems a bit more common. So we're only talking going back a short time.

As for spitting, that's a nasty habit anyway. Notably also one common in China - I wonder did that have any appreciable effect on spread?

 

[yorksrob]

Spitting is one of the grossest things a person can do.

As the saying goes, "if you expect to rate as a gentleman, do not expectorate in public".

 

[yorksrob]

Particularly as, growing up in the North West in the 80s and 90s, we didn't shake hands (that was for businessmen, and it would have been men these days) and greeting people other than family with hugs wasn't something I particularly came across in the UK until I moved down South in 2001 where it seems a bit more common. So we're only talking going back a short time.

Indeed. Such things would still be regarded as rather "touchy-feely" in the circles I move in anyway.

 

[underbank]

Yep I can see that. Many young people (especially) are really struggling with this. There is a difference 'pandemic' emerging which is often hidden. The mental health of the youngsters is not in a good place right now. One example is those 17/18 year old students that were preparing for their A Levels and possible University. They have been isolated from friends and unable to do the exams they've worked for. Now it's just guess work and lots of uncertainty. If it goes wrong in August when the 'results' come out then we could have some very unfortunate consequences.

Surely parents are having conversations with their kids about A level results, Uni applications, etc., including preparing for all eventualities, such as poor A levels, going through clearing, deferring a year, retakes, and even whether Uni courses will start in September at all?? We've done all that with our 18 year old. There certainly won't be any "headless chicken" moments in August as all permutations have been discussed and he has a plan B (plus a plan B, C, D etc). He's not isolated from friends as he's constantly on social media all day every day, chatting to his ex-class mates about their plans, not to mention chatting about girls, football, xbox games, etc. He's bitterly disappointed about not having a prom, not doing his exams, not having the planned 2 holidays we'd booked for Summer, but he knows there's nothing he can do about any of it. If it were 20 year ago with no internet, things would be different, but they're all connected and can do all kinds of things together without being together.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Indeed. Such things would still be regarded as rather "touchy-feely" in the circles I move in anyway.

Sounds familiar. Basically, handshakes were for businessmen (though one uncle also did it), and "touchy feely" was exclusively for close relations, never friends. You'd just say "bye", maybe a quick wave and wander off.

 

[JonathanH]

Spitting is one of the grossest things a person can do.

Yes, absolutely, and if football restarts, it needs to be made a card offence. Then hopefully, fewer people will spit in other walks of life.

 

[nedchester]

The "new normal" may be just not shaking hands, not automatically hugging & kissing friends/relatives, more acceptance of masks on public transport, greater use of tissues or hankies for catching coughs/sneezes, no spitting in public, more awareness of personal space, etc. Easy things like that could well keep the disease controlled to manageable numbers.

I would go along with that. It's about being more aware with restricting matter unnecessarily.

 

[yorkie]

This is hyperbole. I know lots of young people and none of them are struggling. I'm sure there are some, but I'm pretty certain that we won't see an increase of 40,000 youth suicides.

It isn't. I know lots of young people who are really struggling. For the vast majority of young people an extended lockdown poses are far greater risk to their health than the threat of the virus. So it's important that we get things as reasonably back to normal - for young people at least - as soon as practicably possible.

 

[FQ]

It isn't. I know lots of young people who are really struggling. For the vast majority of young people an extended lockdown poses are far greater risk to their health than the threat of the virus. So it's important that we get things as reasonably back to normal - for young people at least - as soon as practicably possible.

Exactly this. I'm still a young person and know a good few people who are struggling with the current situation and it well be adversely affecting their mental health. If it continues much longer (another couple of weeks guaranteed) then they really will start to deteriorate even more.

 

[Solent&Wessex]

He's not isolated from friends as he's constantly on social media all day every day, chatting to his ex-class mates about their plans, not to mention chatting about girls, football, xbox games, etc. He's bitterly disappointed about not having a prom, not doing his exams, not having the planned 2 holidays we'd booked for Summer, but he knows there's nothing he can do about any of it. If it were 20 year ago with no internet, things would be different, but they're all connected and can do all kinds of things together without being together.

But for how long can this continue?

It's all very well talking about girls over social media, but what happens if social distancing continues for years and he can't meet any girls apart from looking at them from 2 metres away?

The use of social media is a great thing which will help many people old and young through the immediate situation. But it is not a long term solution.

If there is no vaccine for years and social distancing is required for years, shall your son just stare at a computer screen for years, with the closest interaction with anyone else being a 2 metre away conversation in the street? Perhaps not going to university because they aren't viable with social distancing being enforced in student housing, lecture theatres, tutorials etc. And even if he did go to uni, not allowed out of his room to socialise or play sport or do anything at all? Then what does he do? Sit at home on his computer?

 

[Huntergreed]

But for how long can this continue?

It's all very well talking about girls over social media, but what happens if social distancing continues for years and he can't meet any girls apart from looking at them from 2 metres away?

The use of social media is a great thing which will help many people old and young through the immediate situation. But it is not a long term solution.

If there is no vaccine for years and social distancing is required for years, shall your son just stare at a computer screen for years, with the closest interaction with anyone else being a 2 metre away conversation in the street? Perhaps not going to university because they aren't viable with social distancing being enforced in student housing, lecture theatres, tutorials etc. And even if he did go to uni, not allowed out of his room to socialise or play sport or do anything at all? Then what does he do? Sit at home on his computer?

As a current university student who is moving into second year in September (if we're back) I must admit this worries me. I'm not particularly optimistic of the prospect of moving into and being confined to a flat which is smaller than my bedroom for the majority of my day and what little social contact I am viably allowed to have being simply standing over 2m away from anyone, as this is quite disheartening. I accept that I am low risk but I also worry that by not doing this I risk harming my parents or the elderly people who I see or make contact with. Indeed at this point it seems to be a decision that we will have to make between our own mental health and living conditions and the safety of the lives of the elderly.

If we don't return to university in September, I struggle to see, financially, how the university can survive very long without any tuition fees. Our university is particularly reliant on the fees of international students, who make up around 50% of the student body, and I worry about the sustainability of the university if they are not allowed to return to study or if we do not open for the next academic year. If it happens that we do not open, I particularly worry about the potential double intake of prospective first years when, a year later, we can finally recommence our studies, as I struggle to see how our university, which is already running at almost full capacity, could cope with such a large intake.

 

[nedchester]

But for how long can this continue?

It's all very well talking about girls over social media, but what happens if social distancing continues for years and he can't meet any girls apart from looking at them from 2 metres away?

The use of social media is a great thing which will help many people old and young through the immediate situation. But it is not a long term solution.

If there is no vaccine for years and social distancing is required for years, shall your son just stare at a computer screen for years, with the closest interaction with anyone else being a 2 metre away conversation in the street? Perhaps not going to university because they aren't viable with social distancing being enforced in student housing, lecture theatres, tutorials etc. And even if he did go to uni, not allowed out of his room to socialise or play sport or do anything at all? Then what does he do? Sit at home on his computer?

Exactly. My son is missing his girlfriend. He connects to her via Facetime etc but it's obviously not the same. The same goes for him seeing his friends. He can't go out and play football in the recent good weather. Not everything can be done through computing and internet. On a positive side he's been asking me to come out on bike rides with me and finally using the (expensive) bike I bought for him a few years ago! While out we have chats and it is obvious things aren't easy. Sleeping patterns are all over the place.

Another thing is that if the Government continues to bail out people for much longer it will result in the young people paying out of their taxes for many years to come. Something they will possibly grow to resent in time..........the young are already likely to be poorer in terms of ability to purchase property and earning potential when compared to their parents. The current crisis is not going to help one bit.

 

[baz962]

Spitting is one of the grossest things a person can do.

And still far too many spitting on the floor.

 

[HH]

It isn't. I know lots of young people who are really struggling.

Perhaps it's the lack of hugs in Yorkshire. I've actually been surprised at how well the young people I've seen have adapted.

I won't reply individually to some of the other posts, but they're pretty daft - we won't be following the current lockdown arrangements through September. Of course it cannot be maintained at current levels that long. Have some common sense!

As to the how we will pay for this, that needs a separate thread. Most of us are paying already, I would note.

 

[Solent&Wessex]

Perhaps it's the lack of hugs in Yorkshire. I've actually been surprised at how well the young people I've seen have adapted.

I won't reply individually to some of the other posts, but they're pretty daft - we won't be following the current lockdown arrangements through September. Of course it cannot be maintained at current levels that long. Have some common sense!

As to the how we will pay for this, that needs a separate thread. Most of us are paying already, I would note.

I should note that my posts don't refer to lockdown - but social distancing.

If social distancing advice continues as it is, 2 metres apart from anyone not in your household, then it is basically lockdown but with a few more shops open.

 

[Huntergreed]

I should note that my posts don't refer to lockdown - but social distancing.

If social distancing advice continues as it is, 2 metres apart from anyone not in your household, then it is basically lockdown but with a few more shops open.

Unfortunately it sounds like social distancing is, at least until 2021, the life we‘re looking at. Recent articles I have read have stated that we may be allowed to nominate one or two additional households to meet with outside our own, up to 10 people, but as all my friends live in different households, this wouldn’t really make a difference for me, and indeed many others I imagine.

 

[nedchester]

Unfortunately it sounds like social distancing is, at least until 2021, the life we‘re looking at. Recent articles I have read have stated that we may be allowed to nominate one or two additional households to meet with outside our own, up to 10 people, but as all my friends live in different households, this wouldn’t really make a difference for me, and indeed many others I imagine.

And whether we like it or not that is not sustainable. Up to now there has been broad support for the lockdown but it won’t last much longer.

Expect massive ignoring of continued social distancing as you describe. Selfish maybe but human nature will dictate that people wish to be “free” especially the young.

Places like North Korea may be able to lock their citizens down by various means but it won’t work in Western Society.

 

[bramling]

I should note that my posts don't refer to lockdown - but social distancing.

If social distancing advice continues as it is, 2 metres apart from anyone not in your household, then it is basically lockdown but with a few more shops open.

Depends on whether travel starts to be allowed, that could for example allow people to start using hotels again - no doubt subject to certain restrictions.

I’m not convinced people will respect 2 metre guidance when, for example, visiting friends. Depending on how many “live” cases are still circulating around the population at that point this may or may not prove a major issue. As I posted elsewhere, based on the traffic on the roads now (and seeing goings on at some of the houses in my road this weekend) I have a strong feeling that many people are already doing social visits to friends / relatives.

 

[leytongabriel]

Report of a poll suggesting a post-lockdown reducation of 27% in rail use. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52414376

The number of people using public transport in Britain's cities could be 20% lower than normal after the end of the coronavirus lockdown.

In London, commuters using buses and tubes could fall by as much as 40% from pre-lockdown levels.

Rail use could drop by 27%, a poll for transport consultants SYSTRA has found.

The survey results capture people's current attitudes about returning to work, but some changes may be carried on into the long term.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Report of a poll suggesting a post-lockdown reducation of 27% in rail use. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52414376

Probably no bad thing, as that might be enough of a reduction to remove the need for any more capacity schemes for now, i.e. what we have now will be able to meet demand (at least off-peak) so we are back to e.g. a seat on TPE.

 

[HH]

I should note that my posts don't refer to lockdown - but social distancing.

If social distancing advice continues as it is, 2 metres apart from anyone not in your household, then it is basically lockdown but with a few more shops open.

That's an assumption. I think it's a bit early for such a major assumption, i.e. getting worked up about something that might never happen. My own view is that if the numbers come down such that test & trace can be used to contain the virus then the social distancing rules will be gradually relaxed. Of course if too many people ignore the rules, which I agree with bramling is definitely happening already, we might not reach that point. That won't be pleasant whatever the course followed.

 

[Bletchleyite]

That's an assumption. I think it's a bit early for such a major assumption, i.e. getting worked up about something that might never happen. My own view is that if the numbers come down such that test & trace can be used to contain the virus then the social distancing rules will be gradually relaxed. Of course if too many people ignore the rules, which I agree with bramling is definitely happening already, we might not reach that point. That won't be pleasant whatever the course followed.

I do think we need to do some proper studies on cloth masks/Buffs etc. If they could reduce the need for the 2m thing, I reckon you might get more compliance (particularly if fashion brands start chucking them out), but we would want to KNOW they work first.

 

[HH]

I do think we need to do some proper studies on cloth masks/Buffs etc. If they could reduce the need for the 2m thing, I reckon you might get more compliance (particularly if fashion brands start chucking them out), but we would want to KNOW they work first.

It's not just of they work, but things like how to wear them, how long for, how they should be cleaned, etc.

Personally I would prefer to keep 2m away rather than put my trust in others to properly maintain their masks...

 

[Bletchleyite]

It's not just of they work, but things like how to wear them, how long for, how they should be cleaned, etc.

And that would have to be part of such a study - if *poorly* worn/maintained, do they still provide quantifiable benefit? If they do, then they are of benefit. If they don't, or are actively negative in such a case, that needs weighing up based on a figure of how many we think will do it properly.

It's of note that there are two things masks can do - protect you from someone else, and protect someone else from you. Cloth masks pretty much don't do the former to any useful extent and may be slightly negative. They potentially do do the latter.

Personally I would prefer to keep 2m away rather than put my trust in others to properly maintain their masks...

Absolutely nothing stopping anyone taking stricter measures than they are required to.

 

[david1212]

Many of the posts made here reasonably suggest that regardless of relaxation of regulations for businesses and shops opening, non-essential travel etc plus the use of masks to reduce the risk of transmission by a carrier social distancing will have to continue until there is a reliable vaccine and sufficient is available for everybody. One factor I have not seen considered is what the vaccine will do. Will it actually kill Covid-19 almost immediately it enters the body, will it be killed but over several days or will it simply make the body more resilient, like those who already are carriers but have no or minimal symptoms ? The vaccine or vaccines, as there may have to be several to cover in particular those on long term medication with no or negligible side effects, are unlikely to be absolutely 100% effective.

If either of the latter combined with a relaxation of social distancing in general and specific to this thread increased use of public transport and hence close contact with a large number of people the transmission levels will jump up. Then how will the numbers needing hospital admission and ultimately the death rate increase ? Will regulations have to be tightened again ? Worst case could the Covid-19 gain strength to overcome the vaccine particularly for those already considered most vulnerable ?

 

[swissrailpassion]

It will be the biggest vaccination programme in history. It's the biggest weapon against the virus, all else is simply containment.

 

[bramling]

That's an assumption. I think it's a bit early for such a major assumption, i.e. getting worked up about something that might never happen. My own view is that if the numbers come down such that test & trace can be used to contain the virus then the social distancing rules will be gradually relaxed. Of course if too many people ignore the rules, which I agree with bramling is definitely happening already, we might not reach that point. That won't be pleasant whatever the course followed.

Ideally it would be good to get levels back down to the point where the number of cases is so low that trace & contact could work effectively. Anecdotally there does seem to be the feeling that it *did* work tolerably well before until we started seeing people coming back from ski trips in Italy, which wouldn’t now be an issue subject to robust border controls.

With decent social distancing measures now in place in workplaces and other places the public are likely to go to conduct their affairs in theory spread this way should be manageable, all the more so if there’s a bit of herd immunity on the scene. Obviously high-risk places like mass gatherings and pubs would still have to be closed, and there will be big issues to work through with public transport.

This leaves what people do in private, like meeting up with friends and relatives - sadly I have a suspicion we just can’t trust people in this respect to follow distancing.

Of course, to make any of that viable we need to get cases down to very low levels, and thusfar we seem disappointingly far from achieving that.

 

[yorkie]

Ideally it would be good to get levels back down to the point where the number of cases is so low that trace & contact could work effectively. Anecdotally there does seem to be the feeling that it *did* work tolerably well before until we started seeing people coming back from ski trips in Italy, which wouldn’t now be an issue subject to robust border controls.

With decent social distancing measures now in place in workplaces and other places the public are likely to go to conduct their affairs in theory spread this way should be manageable, all the more so if there’s a bit of herd immunity on the scene. Obviously high-risk places like mass gatherings and pubs would still have to be closed, and there will be big issues to work through with public transport.

This leaves what people do in private, like meeting up with friends and relatives - sadly I have a suspicion we just can’t trust people in this respect to follow distancing.

Of course, to make any of that viable we need to get cases down to very low levels, and thusfar we seem disappointingly far from achieving that.

Sorry but this post is really random and paradoxic; I don't really see how you can simultaneously talk of the possibility of herd immunity and getting cases down to implausibly low levels.

 

[yorkie]

We are getting posts in this thread on topics covered by other threads such as:

• Cloth masks, scarves and bandanas to be 'encouraged' with no compulsion
• Reliance on this Covid-19 vaccine