Long term social distancing: Impact on public life & public transport?

[yorksrob]

Yes there may never be a vaccine; there may never be a 'cure' (aka a treatment to reduce mortality rates); catching the virus might not even confer immunity. If that's the case then we'll probably be reliant on test & trace to keep the spread at manageable levels. Whichever it is, life will then be at the new normal. Imagining that this will be in a couple of weeks is a pipedream. The government is not going to condemn thousands of people to death, even if the majority of them only have a few years life expectancy (actually WHO have estimated that the average reduction in life expectancy by covid-19, even with the very high average age of those dying, is 13 years), because the media and opposition would crucify them, even if they were so minded.

I really can't see a "new normal", which fundamentally goes against how humans have evolved to operate, lasting forever.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I won't flame you; I will say that this attitude is callous and lacking in empathy.

It's absolutely not. Indeed, it's very firmly my view with regard to myself. OK, I'm 40, but if I was much older or in poor health it would pretty certainly be my view.

My biggest fear is not death. My biggest fear is being unable to look after myself - sitting in a home not knowing what day it is, waiting uncomfortably for someone to come and change my nappy. My great aunt (aged 90) died yesterday, sadly, of a stroke, not believed to be COVID related (though with recent news articles maybe it was). She was fine, looking after her dog at home and able to do that just fine, with family getting her shopping for the lockdown period. Then she just keeled over. That's how I want to go when it's my time.

 

[HH]

I really can't see a "new normal", which fundamentally goes against how humans have evolved to operate, lasting forever.

I didn't say the new normal was permanent lockdown, if that's what you imagine. I have no idea what it might look like, but a recent survey suggested that the majority of people will no longer wish to shake hands with strangers.

 

[HH]

It's absolutely not. Indeed, it's very firmly my view with regard to myself. OK, I'm 40, but if I was much older or in poor health it would pretty certainly be my view.

My biggest fear is not death. My biggest fear is being unable to look after myself - sitting in a home not knowing what day it is, waiting uncomfortably for someone to come and change my nappy. My great aunt (aged 90) died yesterday, sadly, of a stroke, not believed to be COVID related (though with recent news articles maybe it was). She was fine, looking after her dog at home and able to do that just fine, with family getting her shopping for the lockdown period. Then she just keeled over. That's how I want to go when it's my time.

That's a fine attitude for you to have at 40. Not sure if your attitude will be the same at 80, or even 99 like Captain Tom. In any case, you are not everyone, and others might not share your attitude. It seems just a short step to just saying, "Let's write off the care homes - after all none of them can want to live."

 

[Domh245]

Apparently healthy people.

Your point being? People have sadly died whilst (and from) playing football before now - For most people outside of the vulnerable categories the chance of catching the virus and suffering potentially fatal complications from it is very small and will be a risk they're willing to take.

 

[yorksrob]

I didn't say the new normal was permanent lockdown, if that's what you imagine. I have no idea what it might look like, but a recent survey suggested that the majority of people will no longer wish to shake hands with strangers.

Well, I could see that potentially. But that would be a very minor adjustment to social conventions rather than a "new normal".

 

[HH]

Well, I could see that potentially. But that would be a very minor adjustment to social conventions rather than a "new normal".

But that's just one example. I know that transport companies are wondering whether people will be loathe to get on packed trains, tubes and buses after this ends.

 

[Domh245]

That's a fine attitude for you to have at 40. Not sure if your attitude will be the same at 80, or even 99 like Captain Tom. In any case, you are not everyone, and others might not share your attitude. It seems just a short step to just saying, "Let's write off the care homes - after all none of them can want to live."

Anecdote not being the plural of data, but my Grandfather is 87, lives at home with his wife, and is deaf, arthritic and going blind - he's quite fed up with being alive. Nobody is saying that we should just write off care homes, but equally pulling out all the stops to keep residents alive is not the right approach

 

[HH]

Your point being? People have sadly died whilst (and from) playing football before now - For most people outside of the vulnerable categories the chance of catching the virus and suffering potentially fatal complications from it is very small and will be a risk they're willing to take.

My point being that they may be carrying the virus. There's no way to be certain that they're not.

 

[yorksrob]

But that's just one example. I know that transport companies are wondering whether people will be loathe to get on packed trains, tubes and buses after this ends.

Maybe packed trains and buses. But people have evolved to congregate and socialise. I can't see that changing.

 

[HH]

Anecdote not being the plural of data, but my Grandfather is 87, lives at home with his wife, and is deaf, arthritic and going blind - he's quite fed up with being alive. Nobody is saying that we should just write off care homes, but equally pulling out all the stops to keep residents alive is not the right approach

That is your opinion. I'm not saying I disagree with you, or your grandfather, but I'm 100% certain that there will be people who do. I don't think you can just write off their views.

 

[Meerkat]

I won't flame you; I will say that this attitude is callous and lacking in empathy.

Or quite the opposite- after seeing my grandparents go through it I dread being drugged to the eyeballs but still in discomfort, of just being a helpless burden, and with almost no independence or joy.
I feel more sorry for the staff than the residents.

 

[HH]

Maybe packed trains and buses. But people have evolved to congregate and socialise. I can't see that changing.

Why not? It's changed in the past. I'm sure that there will still be people congregating and socialising, but it may be different than it was pre-covid.

 

[Bletchleyite]

That's a fine attitude for you to have at 40. Not sure if your attitude will be the same at 80, or even 99 like Captain Tom.

How do you know it's not his attitude?

In any case, you are not everyone, and others might not share your attitude. It seems just a short step to just saying, "Let's write off the care homes - after all none of them can want to live."

That's why it's a difficult thing to discuss, but I don't agree that "preserve life at all costs" is the right approach in every case. The question is how we protect people against people pressuring them to decide one way or another. "Living wills" is one option, but it would have to be done carefully.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Or quite the opposite- after seeing my grandparents go through it I dread being drugged to the eyeballs but still in discomfort, of just being a helpless burden, and with almost no independence or joy.
I feel more sorry for the staff than the residents.

That's two of us, then. As I said I fear it more than death.

One of my (normal) pastimes is rock climbing. If I feel like I'm going to fall off on bad gear, the thing that goes through my head is not "I might die now", but "this could turn me paraplegic". I did once have a very bad fall on an obstacle course race that by rights should have broken my neck (but didn't, I got away with it with only slight loss of movement and awful whiplash that hurt for months) - quote from a friend who saw it "I thought I just saw a man die" - and that went that way too.

There's a reason why on safety notices "danger of death" has been replaced in many locations with "danger of life-changing injuries", as to a great many people the latter is worse.

 

[yorkie]

...The government is not going to condemn thousands of people to death...

If the lockdown measures are too extreme we will effectively be condemning many young people to death through suicides as well as a future that's not worth living. There is a limit to how much we can lockdown before we cause more lasting damage than the actual disease itself.

 

[nedchester]

When are we going to be able to resume “non essential” journeys again....for example, it’s impossible to social distance on a busy train!

If the lockdown measures are too extreme we will effectively be condemning many young people to death through suicides as well as a future that's not worth living. There is a limit to how much we can lockdown before we cause more lasting damage than the actual disease itself.

Yep I can see that. Many young people (especially) are really struggling with this. There is a difference 'pandemic' emerging which is often hidden. The mental health of the youngsters is not in a good place right now. One example is those 17/18 year old students that were preparing for their A Levels and possible University. They have been isolated from friends and unable to do the exams they've worked for. Now it's just guess work and lots of uncertainty. If it goes wrong in August when the 'results' come out then we could have some very unfortunate consequences.

We will get to a point where a certain number of deaths is seen as 'acceptable'. I suspect that will be around the daily rate of around 200-300. We have deaths from other conditions that could reduce with government intervention.......cigarettes anyone?

 

[Bletchleyite]

For comparison the "normal" background death rate for the UK is about 1700 per day.

 

[baz962]

But that's just one example. I know that transport companies are wondering whether people will be loathe to get on packed trains, tubes and buses after this ends.

They still do now sometimes

 

[HH]

Or quite the opposite- after seeing my grandparents go through it I dread being drugged to the eyeballs but still in discomfort, of just being a helpless burden, and with almost no independence or joy.
I feel more sorry for the staff than the residents.

Fortunately, not everyone in a care home is drugged up to the eyeballs and still in discomfort. When my grandmother was in one she was perfectly happy from 85 until the end at 93.

How do you know it's not his attitude?

I've listened to what he's had to say. If you don't realise that is not his attitude then you clearly haven't.

If the lockdown measures are too extreme we will effectively be condemning many young people to death through suicides as well as a future that's not worth living.

This is hyperbole. I know lots of young people and none of them are struggling. I'm sure there are some, but I'm pretty certain that we won't see an increase of 40,000 youth suicides.

 

[HH]

They still do now sometimes

Of course they do. It's those that consider this is something that only affects other people.

 

[Starmill]

An awful lot of people would quite happily cancel leave at the moment, it's not like they can go anywhere! So the first step would be to ask people if they will cancel it, and I'd bet you will get lots of "yes", unless your industrial relations are so poor that people will say "no" just to be awkward, in which case there is quite some introspection to do.

What's likely to be more difficult is companies needing to potentially upset people by refusing to cancel now-useless leave.

My leave is and always has been done by mutual agreement, regardless of the type of work.

Theoretically even once agreed and booked one might be asked to cancel it. One would be expected to be flexible and explore all options, and equally if there were sunk costs (such as the £10 admin fees on Advance tickets) they would likely be covered as part of the agreement.

I understand other places have rather different policies, but they're pretty foreign to me.

 

[nedchester]

This is hyperbole. I know lots of young people and none of them are struggling. I'm sure there are some, but I'm pretty certain that we won't see an increase of 40,000 youth suicides.

Both my children are struggling at the moment. As parents we are keeping an eye on them and supporting them as much as we can. Not all will get the support that we can give them.

Additionally, what about suicides from older folk who lose their previously secure job and are now losing their income, unable to pay the mortgage and feed the families.

And don't say the Government will support them for ever because it won't, there are limits to the assistance the Government can give.

 

[Mogster]

It seems even with unusual levels of mortality the likelihood of dying hasn’t really changed. Something to ponder.

How much ‘normal’ risk does Covid represent?

An article by Nick Triggle on BBC Online raises the issue of whether many deaths from COVID-19 would have occurred anyway as part of the…

medium.com

 

[HH]

Both my children are struggling at the moment. As parents we are keeping an eye on them and supporting them as much as we can. Not all will get the support that we can give them.

Additionally, what about suicides from older folk who lose their previously secure job and are now losing their income, unable to pay the mortgage and feed the families.

And don't say the Government will support them for ever because it won't, there are limits to the assistance the Government can give.

I'm not expecting the government to support people forever, because I'm not expecting the current measures to be fully in place forever. I speak to lots of people, in lots of age groups and in lots of jobs; none of them are feeling suicidal and none of the children are struggling. I obviously move in the wrong circles.

 

[HH]

It seems even with unusual levels of mortality the likelihood of dying hasn’t really changed. Something to ponder.

How much ‘normal’ risk does Covid represent?

An article by Nick Triggle on BBC Online raises the issue of whether many deaths from COVID-19 would have occurred anyway as part of the…

medium.com

That article is over a month old. Given how fast moving this pandemic has been, it carries no weight at this point.

 

[Bletchleyite]

That's quite interesting. With a 0.12% chance of dying (being in my 40s) that backs up my view that I'm not scared of the virus. But if I was in my 70s or 80s I'd see it quite differently.

 

[underbank]

I really can't see a "new normal", which fundamentally goes against how humans have evolved to operate, lasting forever.

The "new normal" may be just not shaking hands, not automatically hugging & kissing friends/relatives, more acceptance of masks on public transport, greater use of tissues or hankies for catching coughs/sneezes, no spitting in public, more awareness of personal space, etc. Easy things like that could well keep the disease controlled to manageable numbers.

 

[Bletchleyite]

That article is over a month old. Given how fast moving this pandemic has been, it carries no weight at this point.

I don't believe there has been any considerable shift in the proportion of fatalities by age group.

 

[westv]

The "new normal" may be just not shaking hands, not automatically hugging & kissing friends/relatives, more acceptance of masks on public transport, greater use of tissues or hankies for catching coughs/sneezes, no spitting in public, more awareness of personal space, etc. Easy things like that could well keep the disease controlled to manageable numbers.

Spitting is one of the grossest things a person can do.