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Long term social distancing: Impact on public life & public transport?

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Meerkat

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It is completely inconceivable that social distancing will be in force for any length of time
Some social distancing will be in force for a long long time, even if we are down to the really vulnerable, and particular restrictions in shops/hospitality/football.
And it will all need to be quickly reinstatable - the debate will be around whether you could hard quarantine a village/town or softer but wider.
 
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HH

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It is completely inconceivable that social distancing will be in force for any length of time...
It is completely inconceivable that social distancing won't be in force for a considerable length of time.

It won't be the same as today, but it will absolutely be necessary until we have a vaccine, a cure, or (the possibly imaginary) herd immunity.
 

yorkie

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Coronavirus: UK must find 'new normal' to ease lockdown - Raab
...He suggested social distancing measures already being seen in food shops and other businesses that have remained operating could also be expanded to non-essential businesses if they were to reopen....


No details yet but it is clear we do need to find a new normal. We cannot continue like this for much longer.

I do find this thought a bit worrying...
...Asked whether there was any chance of people being able to play sport outside this summer, Mr Raab said this would be "very difficult because of the level and scale of interaction"....
I don't see why fit and healthy people might not be able to play football outside for example

I do worry that the 'new normal' may be overly restrictive and not sustainable.

As the details are not yet out, I will try not to worry too much, but it is clear that a balance must be struck and we must not give in to those who appear to want lengthy and harsh lockdowns for everyone.
 

bramling

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Shield the vulnerable but the rest of us have to be able to get on with our lives.

One does have to be careful with that line of thought, Boris no doubt thought he was part of the “us” group, he then ended up in intensive care fighting for his life.

An end to lockdown is inevitable as it’s completely unsustainable, but we’re not going to back to normal, nor anything like it.

There isn’t a rigid tidemark between vulnerable and non-vulnerable, but rather the whole thing seems to be a sliding scale. A particular problem is those people in the Boris age-range - not old enough to be formally shielding, but equally some way up the risk curve and in most cases still working. A 60-year-old bus driver, for example.

I remain concerned that British people don’t have what it takes to live comfortably with social distancing. I don’t think many people here have the collective temperament that, for example, Swedes do that seems to have allowed them to work with less stringent measures.

It’s also worth remembering that shielding doesn’t just mean 70+ retirees on final salary pensions. At my place we have people as young as in their 20s shielding for various reasons.
 
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Meerkat

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It won't be the same as today, but it will absolutely be necessary until we have a vaccine, a cure, or (the possibly imaginary) herd immunity.
Or a treatment - if you could keep most people out of ICU and reduce their hospital stay to a few days max then the capacity to deal with a major outbreak would absolutely rocket.
I don't see why fit and healthy people might not be able to play football outside for example
Because that would be 22 plus people from different household, maybe even different towns, in close contact with each other.
I see cricket are looking at playing behind closed doors in the two grounds with hotels so they could test and quarantine the players/staff
 

Tomp94

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When are we going to be able to resume “non essential” journeys again....for example, it’s impossible to social distance on a busy train!
 

Bletchleyite

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Because that would be 22 plus people from different household, maybe even different towns, in close contact with each other.
I see cricket are looking at playing behind closed doors in the two grounds with hotels so they could test and quarantine the players/staff

Cricket is much easier to play distanced than football, though you do of course share the ball.
 

nedchester

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Absolutely.

Shield the vulnerable but the rest of us have to be able to get on with our lives.

People who want extended (and/or harsher) lockdowns are deluded.

See also discussion here: https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/could-the-coronavirus-burn-out-in-the-uk.203758/#post-4551674

Absolutely agree with this. I have said elsewhere that we (the public) will have to tolerate a certain amount of mortality UK wide from this condition.

66 millions people have lives to lead, jobs to earn money, friends and families to meet, it is part of human life. Everyone thinks this can carry on forever with us only living on essential things. We beyond food, water and shelter (essentials) we theoretically don't need anything more. But of course we do.

A compromise where the vulnerable are as much as possible shielded and the NHS is not overwhelmed is needed. Otherwise I predict either civil unrest or a spike in suicides as people lose their jobs and income.
 

Bantamzen

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Some social distancing will be in force for a long long time, even if we are down to the really vulnerable, and particular restrictions in shops/hospitality/football.
And it will all need to be quickly reinstatable - the debate will be around whether you could hard quarantine a village/town or softer but wider.
It is completely inconceivable that social distancing won't be in force for a considerable length of time.

It won't be the same as today, but it will absolutely be necessary until we have a vaccine, a cure, or (the possibly imaginary) herd immunity.

But there may never be a vaccine, that's a possibility we will have to deal with. What we will have from a prolonged lockdown is economic meltdown, that means real people losing their jobs, not being able to pay their bills, buy their food. The government cannot support everyone furloughed for any length of time, the money is likely to run out & that will mean damage to everything including the NHS. Experts and politicians may wax lyrical about long term social distancing, but the bottom line is what it is. People need money, and to get money they need to work. Unless you guys know how to shake the magic money tree a bit more?
 

Tomp94

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When are we going to be able to resume “non essential” journeys again....for example, it’s impossible to social distance on a busy train!
Especially when a vaccine might never be available. Then what? We can’t live our lives with the social distancing forever, at some point we’d have to say stuff it, and get back to normal, allbeit with the increased risk of excess deaths
 

AM9

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To some extent, with regard to the "local shop", as they are often strongly community-supported there might be a case for such shops only serving the local community (i.e. people who can prove they live in that area), and putting signs up to that extent. I wouldn't overly have a problem with that, as it's up to a business who they serve provided it's not racist, sexist etc, and tourists can always get an ice cream in a tourist-oriented ice cream parlour and the shopping from Asda.
OK. That was just an example, but small communities tend to operate as a tight group, and given the neglect that tourist areas get out of season, especially from politicians, the influx of visitors just turning up as a self-interest move I believe would be seen as an abuse of their wellbeing.
 

JonathanH

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When are we going to be able to resume “non essential” journeys again....for example, it’s impossible to social distance on a busy train!
Especially when a vaccine might never be available. Then what? We can’t live our lives with the social distancing forever, at some point we’d have to say stuff it, and get back to normal, allbeit with the increased risk of excess deaths

Yes, of course, the outcome would "just" be an increased death rate but people need to be primed before this becomes the policy. As has been posted in these forums before, there will be outcry if the death rate gets uncontrollable.

People will not want to make journeys they personally see as "non essential" if they think there is an increased risk involved.
 

bramling

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Yes, of course, the outcome would just be an increased death rate but people need to be primed before this becomes the policy. As has been posted in these forums before, there will be outcry if the death rate gets uncontrollable.

People will not want to make journeys they personally see as "non essential" if they think there is an increased risk involved.

There’s certainly going to need to be a lot of expectation management done.

Reality is a balance will have to be struck between social distancing, shielding and economic activity. It’s for sure going to be a very difficult one to find. We also have to accept that the politicians may not get it right.
 

Bletchleyite

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People will not want to make journeys they personally see as "non essential" if they think there is an increased risk involved.

Depends how much increased risk. I'm OK with it myself, I'd be back on the railways tomorrow if it wouldn't affect others adversely for me to do so (hence the guidance not to). If I was 80 I might not be.

If people were as risk averse as some are suggesting, nobody would drive, cycle or motorcycle, as all those are far higher risk than walking and using public transport in normal situations.
 

Bletchleyite

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There’s certainly going to need to be a lot of expectation management done.

Reality is a balance will have to be struck between social distancing, shielding and economic activity. It’s for sure going to be a very difficult one to find. We also have to accept that the politicians may not get it right.

Agreed, which is why I won't slate the Government for what they've done so far. There will need to be a proper enquiry (like Grenfell), but for now let's just get on with it?

If mistakes are made, I don't mind as long as they are open to correcting them.
 

Chester1

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The biggest problem group for "enchanced shielding" are over 80s. Young people with medical conditions can be persuaded to socially distance. 70s will be harder to persuade but its still in their interests. A large number of over 80s will simply ignore guidance after a few weeks and its a reasonable decision because their life expectancy is short in the best of times. My grandmother is in her late 80s, has an active social life and still plays sport. Why would she lock herself up for the rest of her healthy life? She will take some precautions but otherwise carry on as before and take the risk of catching it and possibly dieing. Its an entirely sensible call to make.
 

MarkyT

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Especially when a vaccine might never be available. Then what? We can’t live our lives with the social distancing forever, at some point we’d have to say stuff it, and get back to normal, allbeit with the increased risk of excess deaths
One measure that appears to have had some success, especially in East Asia, is the requirement is to wear some form of mask, particularly in confined areas where effective distancing is difficult, such as on public transport. The primary aim here is to stop unknowingly infected people ejecting droplets from their mouths into the faces of others nearby and onto surfaces that may be touched later, so non-medical, home-made and improvised mouth coverings can be highly effective. Once thereby, and in combination with distancing and general caution still required elsewhere, the 'R value' has dropped below 1 for a few weeks, the number of new infections should collapse dramatically, and test and trace of any new small outbreaks should become practical in a partially reopened economy. The other major element would be testing of those travelling to areas that have been cleared from places that haven't, especially those entering the UK from abroad. Mass public gatherings, such as major sports events and concerts will probably have to remain out of the question for a while longer, although restaurants and then pubs might be allowed to reopen with reduced numbers and limited mask removal allowed in small well-spaced groups. This all gives time for new treatments and vaccines to be developed and tested before restrictions are further lifted.
 

greyman42

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Especially when a vaccine might never be available. Then what? We can’t live our lives with the social distancing forever, at some point we’d have to say stuff it, and get back to normal, allbeit with the increased risk of excess deaths
A lot of people I have spoken to, including pensioners, are saying the same thing. For the sake of our quality of life and the economy, which go hand in hand, we will have to be less risk averse.
 

JonathanH

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My grandmother is in her late 80s, has an active social life and still plays sport. Why would she lock herself up for the rest of her healthy life?

There are three aspects to this:
1) the personal decision - if an elderly person wants to make the decision to lead a normal life on the grounds of a known risk then that might be reasonable
2) the family decision - I've heard absolutely distraught people ringing up radio phone ins about the loss of a parent - then say they were in their late 80s or 90s - clearly it is a distressing time but their parents were never going be immortal
3) the society decision - there remains a risk to people in the health service which has to be managed - slowing the impact on the health service is still a necessity.

However, I note that going on too long with the lockdown risks both not being able to have another one due to the economy being too weak and risks not suppressing the virus enough to allow the future measures to address the issue.
 

507021

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Agreed, which is why I won't slate the Government for what they've done so far. There will need to be a proper enquiry (like Grenfell), but for now let's just get on with it?

If mistakes are made, I don't mind as long as they are open to correcting them.

Try saying that to people, like myself, who have lost loved ones to the virus.
 

Chester1

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A lot of people I have spoken to, including pensioners, are saying the same thing. For the sake of our quality of life and the economy, which go hand in hand, we will have to be less risk averse.

We definitely do need to be less risk adverse than before but there are economically viable adaptions that can be made. Putting up perspex around shop counters, wearing masks and working from home when possible are the sort of thing that will help reduce spread. Those kind of adaptions have their practical and economic limitations and large number of people will have to more or less carry on as normal.

There are three aspects to this:
1) the personal decision - if an elderly person wants to make the decision to lead a normal life on the grounds of a known risk then that might be reasonable
2) the family decision - I've heard absolutely distraught people ringing up radio phone ins about the loss of a parent - then say they were in their late 80s or 90s - clearly it is a distressing time but their parents were never going be immortal
3) the society decision - there remains a risk to people in the health service which has to be managed - slowing the impact on the health service is still a necessity.

However, I note that going on too long with the lockdown risks both not being able to have another one due to the economy being too weak and risks not suppressing the virus enough to allow the future measures to address the issue.

My grandmother will make decision herself, regardless of what anyone else (including the government) decides. I don't think she is particularly unusual in this regard. The police are not going to fine or arrest octogenarians in huge numbers.
 

Bletchleyite

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The biggest problem group for "enchanced shielding" are over 80s. Young people with medical conditions can be persuaded to socially distance. 70s will be harder to persuade but its still in their interests. A large number of over 80s will simply ignore guidance after a few weeks and its a reasonable decision because their life expectancy is short in the best of times. My grandmother is in her late 80s, has an active social life and still plays sport. Why would she lock herself up for the rest of her healthy life? She will take some precautions but otherwise carry on as before and take the risk of catching it and possibly dieing. Its an entirely sensible call to make.

And that's why shielding is strong advice and not law. People can and should be able to make that choice in order to make their limited remaining lifetime more enjoyable.

The guidance even specifically mentions this.

This is one reason I'm quite glad that for this we have a libertarian in charge, because I reckon Corbyn would have gone fully "nanny state" on it and made it a legal mandation.
 

Bletchleyite

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Try saying that to people, like myself, who have lost loved ones to the virus.

My condolences, but, hard though it will be to accept, the decision has to be on the basis of benefit to society as a whole, not just the specifically vulnerable, as unfortunately their needs are pretty much diametrically opposed.

With regards to "getting on with it" I'm referring to allowing the Government to make policy without too much criticism until later, unless they have got it really wrong and need to change their approach now (noting that there will be deaths regardless of the option taken; there is no option to have none). We can have an enquiry to delve in in more detail later. Obviously if you're grieving you should take the time to do that, and I am not trying to suggest otherwise.

With regard to criticising the Government this is time to send them your scientific paper if you believe something they're doing wrong can be proven to be wrong (which is what caused the change of policy on lockdown), but things like "but I think Keir Starmer would do better" are for later.
 

Bantamzen

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Yes, of course, the outcome would "just" be an increased death rate but people need to be primed before this becomes the policy. As has been posted in these forums before, there will be outcry if the death rate gets uncontrollable.

People will not want to make journeys they personally see as "non essential" if they think there is an increased risk involved.

And image the outcry when millions of people find themselves unable to get by because the government chose to hang onto the lockdown instead of trying to get us back on the road to normality. Lockdown is not a "Get out of jail free" card. It has a cost, a cost that will run into 11 or even 12 figures. There is only so much we can do before we have to face this reality.
 

underbank

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And that's why shielding is strong advice and not law. People can and should be able to make that choice in order to make their limited remaining lifetime more enjoyable.

The guidance even specifically mentions this.

This is one reason I'm quite glad that for this we have a libertarian in charge, because I reckon Corbyn would have gone fully "nanny state" on it and made it a legal mandation.

But a lot of the "most vulnerable" (such as middle aged cancer patients) have the potential for plenty of life left, such as some of the cancer patients who could well live 10,20,30 years with proper treatment (which the NHS has cancelled due to concentrating on Covid!). They're certainly not all octogenarians with 2 or 3 years left.

The point, though, is that at the moment, those "shielded" can go out and about and are pretty safe as there aren't many people around and most people are following social distancing guidelines. When restrictions are lifted, lots of people will be out and about and lots of them will soon forget about social distancing, i.e. putting the vulnerable at a lot more risk than they are today.
 

Bletchleyite

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But a lot of the "most vulnerable" (such as middle aged cancer patients) have the potential for plenty of life left, such as some of the cancer patients who could well live 10,20,30 years with proper treatment (which the NHS has cancelled due to concentrating on Covid!). They're certainly not all octogenarians with 2 or 3 years left.

Indeed, and I'd expect younger "shielders" to be more likely to shield. Though I'm not sure myself. I've got mild asthma, and more severe asthma would put me into that group (just doubling my preventer dose would be enough, I believe). Would I stay in the house completely, though, and not even go for a solo walk at a time when nobody was about e.g. 5am or midnight? Not sure I would. Everyone's appetite for personal risk is different, and shielding is mostly about personal risk, the lockdown more widely is about protecting others.
 

Qwerty133

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The biggest problem group for "enchanced shielding" are over 80s. Young people with medical conditions can be persuaded to socially distance. 70s will be harder to persuade but its still in their interests. A large number of over 80s will simply ignore guidance after a few weeks and its a reasonable decision because their life expectancy is short in the best of times. My grandmother is in her late 80s, has an active social life and still plays sport. Why would she lock herself up for the rest of her healthy life? She will take some precautions but otherwise carry on as before and take the risk of catching it and possibly dieing. Its an entirely sensible call to make.
I suspect a lot of elderly people (80+) would not be too bothered about dying from Corona, other than the effect that it will have on their friends and family, and would actually prefer to die from it while living a relatively normal life than stay alive for a few more years unable to do much either through continued restrictions or declining health. On a slightly different note (and one I expect to be flamed for) I also wonder if the desire to keep all care home residents alive as long as possible is mistaken (and not just in terms of corona) when many of them, such as those with later stage dementia, have basically no quality of life and may well prefer to be dead than being kept alive despite being able to do basically nothing for themselves.
 

HH

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I don't see why fit and healthy people might not be able to play football outside for example
Apparently healthy people.

But there may never be a vaccine, that's a possibility we will have to deal with. What we will have from a prolonged lockdown is economic meltdown, that means real people losing their jobs, not being able to pay their bills, buy their food. The government cannot support everyone furloughed for any length of time, the money is likely to run out & that will mean damage to everything including the NHS. Experts and politicians may wax lyrical about long term social distancing, but the bottom line is what it is. People need money, and to get money they need to work. Unless you guys know how to shake the magic money tree a bit more?
Yes there may never be a vaccine; there may never be a 'cure' (aka a treatment to reduce mortality rates); catching the virus might not even confer immunity. If that's the case then we'll probably be reliant on test & trace to keep the spread at manageable levels. Whichever it is, life will then be at the new normal. Imagining that this will be in a couple of weeks is a pipedream. The government is not going to condemn thousands of people to death, even if the majority of them only have a few years life expectancy (actually WHO have estimated that the average reduction in life expectancy by covid-19, even with the very high average age of those dying, is 13 years), because the media and opposition would crucify them, even if they were so minded.
 

HH

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I suspect a lot of elderly people (80+) would not be too bothered about dying from Corona, other than the effect that it will have on their friends and family, and would actually prefer to die from it while living a relatively normal life than stay alive for a few more years unable to do much either through continued restrictions or declining health. On a slightly different note (and one I expect to be flamed for) I also wonder if the desire to keep all care home residents alive as long as possible is mistaken (and not just in terms of corona) when many of them, such as those with later stage dementia, have basically no quality of life and may well prefer to be dead than being kept alive despite being able to do basically nothing for themselves.
I won't flame you; I will say that this attitude is callous and lacking in empathy.
 
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