Coronavirus: what impact might it have on the railways?

[Peregrine 4903]

But how much of that travel would be by rail, or any public transport? People would be far more likely to take to their cars, especially if they feel nervous about catching viruses. I think this will finish off some of the more marginal rail services; government will play the 'national emergency' card to allow closures to happen.

I personally don't agree at all. In the current climate, particularly with climate change I think it will never be politically acceptable to close a railway line that carries passengers ever again. Also why would everyone be using the car. Plenty of people don't have cars and rely on trains and if they are going on leisure trips they are likely going to places where larges groups of people would be so why would they be scared about catching the virus on a train. Especially as this is presuming the virus has been brought under control/taken care of. The government and many people want car usage to drop and in places such as London where its almost impossible to use a car in Central London, and where a lot of leisure travel will be too I really doubt that people will be more likely to take the car. Of course a more people will take the car than the train, as is always the case, but more people aren't going to take the car after this is all over.

 

[squizzler]

The government and many people want car usage to drop and in places such as London where its almost impossible to use a car in Central London, and where a lot of leisure travel will be too I really doubt that people will be more likely to take the car. Of course a more people will take the car than the train, as is always the course, but more people aren't going to take the car after this is all over.

I think there will be a drop in car usage because many motorists will sadly be left with no choice but to sell their ride or hand the keys back to the lessor. When their fortunes change they may hold off buying till they can go electric.
The one to watch will be air travel. I suspect the 'budget airline' model is broken for good, but at any rate the staycation is likely to be where it's at after leaving the EU.

 

[squizzler]

I also wonder if it might be worth some operators experimenting with parcel deliveries via service train, in case there is a shortage of lorry drivers. There is certainly lots of free space onboard many routes. I can of course think of many reasons why now might not be the best time to try it, but if demand patterns change for good perhaps it might become viable?

 

[Peregrine 4903]

I think there will be a drop in car usage because many motorists will sadly be left with no choice but to sell their ride or hand the keys back to the lessor. When their fortunes change they may hold off buying till they can go electric.
The one to watch will be air travel. I suspect the 'budget airline' model is broken for good, but at any rate the staycation is likely to be where it's at after leaving the EU.

Air travel will be very interesting to watch after this. I think the railways should get through and passenger numbers will recover, may even increase in regards to leisure travel after all of this.

 

[Shimbleshanks]

I personally don't agree at all. In the current climate, particularly with climate change I think it will never be politically acceptable to close a railway line that carries passengers ever again. Also why would everyone be using the car. Plenty of people don't have cars and rely on trains and if they are going on leisure trips they are likely going to places where larges groups of people would be so why would they be scared about catching the virus on a train. Especially as this is presuming the virus has been brought under control/taken care of. The government and many people want car usage to drop and in places such as London where its almost impossible to use a car in Central London, and where a lot of leisure travel will be too I really doubt that people will be more likely to take the car. Of course a more people will take the car than the train, as is always the case, but more people aren't going to take the car after this is all over.

I still maintain that a shift away from city centre commuting to more leisure travel is bad news for rail, and public transport generally. More leisure travel is not an adequate substitute for the loss of commuter travel for the railways. City centre commuting is far more likely to be by rail compared with leisure travel. The latter is likely to be families, groups of friends, coupes etc where rail travel is much more expensive than loading several people into one car and sharing the petrol cost. I have to confess that where there are more than two of us (and I get free over-60s rail travel), I tend to use the car even for leisure trips into central London because the cost of rail fares just doesn't stack up.

 

[Bald Rick]

No, you don't. You need them working. You do NOT need them at work.

For train planning, I’m afraid you need them in the office. The train planning systems use huge amounts of data, and specialist heavy processing power, which a regular laptop over the average person’s broadband is not going to be able to deal with. For access planning you also need them in the office, as the planning meetings have to be done with a whole host of people, including those actually doing the work, using models, maps etc.

I think there will be a drop in car usage because many motorists will sadly be left with no choice but to sell their ride or hand the keys back to the lessor. When their fortunes change they may hold off buying till they can go electric.
The one to watch will be air travel. I suspect the 'budget airline' model is broken for good, but at any rate the staycation is likely to be where it's at after leaving the EU.

The budget airline model is not broken for good, far from it. EasyJet and Ryanair are in a far stronger financial position than most of the full service airlines, with the exception of British Airways and sister companies, who are also in a reasonable position. They will survive, and emerge stronger as the weaker airlines will have gone to the wall.

 

[The Planner]

For train planning, I’m afraid you need them in the office. The train planning systems use huge amounts of data, and specialist heavy processing power, which a regular laptop over the average person’s broadband is not going to be able to deal with. For access planning you also need them in the office, as the planning meetings have to be done with a whole host of people, including those actually doing the work, using models, maps etc.

Indeed, and far from an easy task to use TPS with a single screen, let alone a Laptop one.

 

[The Planner]

And a possession needs less planning if it’s “you have the slow lines for a week” rather than nightly set up and take down.

You assume coronavirus doesnt knock out enough of the workforce that is competent to work trackside. There is little heavy maintenance or renewal that is ever shovel ready.

 

[221129]

Catering and revenue duties being binned from tomorrow on XC. With formation and diagram changes to follow.

 

[AndrewE]

Indeed, and far from an easy task to use TPS with a single screen, let alone a Laptop one.

and added to that, reports that phone/broadband and network access from home are struggling to cope already.

 

[AndrewE]

I still maintain that a shift away from city centre commuting to more leisure travel is bad news for rail, and public transport generally. More leisure travel is not an adequate substitute for the loss of commuter travel for the railways. City centre commuting is far more likely to be by rail compared with leisure travel. The latter is likely to be families, groups of friends, coupes etc where rail travel is much more expensive than loading several people into one car and sharing the petrol cost. I have to confess that where there are more than two of us (and I get free over-60s rail travel), I tend to use the car even for leisure trips into central London because the cost of rail fares just doesn't stack up.

I disagree.
Yes, rail is by far the "best" way to shift thousands (hundreds of thousands) of commuters with the least congestion and pollution, but if you just look at the bottom line it is a disaster.
For a cost effective railway you need to lose all the trains that only run in the peak hours and focus on long distance trains that are well-loaded from morning to night with an even staffing requirement through the day.
People need to get away from the idea that a crush-loaded peak service is a profitable one.

 

[Bletchleyite]

For train planning, I’m afraid you need them in the office.

No, you simply don't.

The train planning systems use huge amounts of data, and specialist heavy processing power, which a regular laptop over the average person’s broadband is not going to be able to deal with. For access planning you also need them in the office, as the planning meetings have to be done with a whole host of people, including those actually doing the work, using models, maps etc

That is simply totally untrue. I think people in industries other than IT just don't have a clue as to how feasible home-working is - we are trailblazing, you're all now learning - and the genie will not be going back in the bottle.

FWIW I do large data loads at home because my home (fibre) broadband is faster than in the office!

 

[bramling]

No, you simply don't.



That is simply totally untrue. I think people in industries other than IT just don't have a clue as to how feasible home-working is - we are trailblazing, you're all now learning - and the genie will not be going back in the bottle.

FWIW I do large data loads at home because my home (fibre) broadband is faster than in the office!

It may well be theoretically possible, but if the industry hasn’t set things up to make it possible *now* then it isn’t going to be much use for this situation.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It may well be theoretically possible, but if the industry hasn’t set things up to make it possible *now* then it isn’t going to be much use for this situation.

Well, it's going to need to start setting up for it.

 

[bramling]

Well, it's going to need to start setting up for it.

The railway doesn’t really do quick, especially where IT is involved!

 

[Bletchleyite]

The railway doesn’t really do quick, especially where IT is involved!

Well, it's going to need to!

 

[Bald Rick]

No, you simply don't.


That is simply totally untrue. I think people in industries other than IT just don't have a clue as to how feasible home-working is - we are trailblazing, you're all now learning - and the genie will not be going back in the bottle.

FWIW I do large data loads at home because my home (fibre) broadband is faster than in the office!

It’s not untrue, it’s a matter of fact.

It may be true that it could be possible to set up the system so that all of the 500 odd people in Milton Keynes who produce timetables, plus the similar number dotted around the 30 or so operators, have a high end computer and high band width broadband at home (which would have to be paid for by the industry, effectively duplicating the entire system). But it doesn’t exist now, and the contingency timetables need putting into the system in the next 48 hours. So, now, you need them in the office.

Fortunately, they are generally happy to come in, and they are.

 

[The Planner]

That is simply totally untrue. I think people in industries other than IT just don't have a clue as to how feasible home-working is - we are trailblazing, you're all now learning - and the genie will not be going back in the bottle.

FWIW I do large data loads at home because my home (fibre) broadband is faster than in the office!

How do you replicate the actual set up we use for home working, do you have 3 monitors at home? Productivity would be decimated as I said earlier if we were restricted to a single laptop screen (which several hundred laptops would have to be provided for, and you cannot log on to the network via a home PC apart from webmail)

 

[Mitchell Hurd]

Good morning people. Have a look at the CrossCountry JourneyCheck and you'll find a lot if not all of the services that read 'Catering is not available throughout'.

I know services have to be run but that's gonna go down well with passengers.

I'm guessing this coronavirus business will affect the catering business as well?

 

[LowLevel]

Good morning people. Have a look at the CrossCountry JourneyCheck and you'll find a lot if not all of the services that read 'Catering is not available throughout'.

I know services have to be run but that's gonna go down well with passengers.

I'm guessing this coronavirus business will affect the catering business as well?

We are at a point where travel is meant to be for essential journeys only. Caterers are not making essential journeys so they are withdrawn from onboard trains to reduce their personal risk. Going forward the only staff you'll find on board trains are drivers and guards and they'll be keeping their distance from passengers wherever possible.

If you choose to be on a train you do not need a catering trolley at present, station outlets largely remain open.

Where the staff are still deployed to trains they're being used to assist with cleaning and disinfecting rather than hanging around selling tea.

 

[Bletchleyite]

How do you replicate the actual set up we use for home working, do you have 3 monitors at home?

I have two. Plenty of home-workers have three, yes.

Monitors are totally standard, there are only two means of connecting them, HDMI and VGA, so the ones from the office could be taken home!

Productivity would be decimated as I said earlier if we were restricted to a single laptop screen (which several hundred laptops would have to be provided for, and you cannot log on to the network via a home PC apart from webmail)

No VPN? This is boom time for companies who set them up of course. I'm betting the senior management are investigating...

It's not going to be possible to solve this within 48 hours, but on a longer horizon (and you can be sure there's going to be more than one replan) I would put this into the category of things that the naysayers got wrong, as they so often do.

 

[Mitchell Hurd]

We are at a point where travel is meant to be for essential journeys only. Caterers are not making essential journeys so they are withdrawn from onboard trains to reduce their personal risk. Going forward the only staff you'll find on board trains are drivers and guards and they'll be keeping their distance from passengers wherever possible.

If you choose to be on a train you do not need a catering trolley at present, station outlets largely remain open.

Where the staff are still deployed to trains they're being used to assist with cleaning and disinfecting rather than hanging around selling tea.

Right, thank you.

 

[The Planner]

I have two. Plenty of home-workers have three, yes.

Monitors are totally standard, there are only two means of connecting them, HDMI and VGA, so the ones from the office could be taken home!



No VPN? This is boom time for companies who set them up of course. I'm betting the senior management are investigating...

It's not going to be possible to solve this within 48 hours, but on a longer horizon (and you can be sure there's going to be more than one replan) I would put this into the category of things that the naysayers got wrong, as they so often do.

Are you really suggesting that people take 3 monitors home and the logistics of that? Train planners are not "home workers"

 

[Bletchleyite]

Are you really suggesting that people take 3 monitors home and the logistics of that?

Yes. Plenty of people have done already.

Train planners are not "home workers"

ANY office worker can be a home worker. Mark my words, if this continues and lockdowns tighten it WILL happen.

 

[uvarvu]

In the office below mine most people have cleared out their monitors and chairs! In my office itself some monitors have gone but that's about it.

 

[Bald Rick]

I have two. Plenty of home-workers have three, yes.

Monitors are totally standard, there are only two means of connecting them, HDMI and VGA, so the ones from the office could be taken home!



No VPN? This is boom time for companies who set them up of course. I'm betting the senior management are investigating...

It's not going to be possible to solve this within 48 hours, but on a longer horizon (and you can be sure there's going to be more than one replan) I would put this into the category of things that the naysayers got wrong, as they so often do.

There is a VPN, but it doesn’t have capacity for 15,000 people to work at home simultaneously. Certainly not for the scale of data we are talking about here.

This isn’t about ‘naysaying’ it’s about practicality of having 1000 people + accessing a huge data system and working in it, live, today, when those facilities do not exist.

Incidentally, a fair proportion of the people who would need 3 monitors don’t have the space at home to do so. Many of them are young and live with their parents - working from home means bedroom or on the sofa.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Incidentally, a fair proportion of the people who would need 3 monitors don’t have the space at home to do so. Many of them are young and live with their parents - working from home means bedroom or on the sofa.

I'm sorry, that's rubbish. Have you seen the gaming setups many kids have in their bedroom?

 

[Peregrine 4903]

I'm sorry, that's rubbish. Have you seen the gaming setups many kids have in their bedroom?

As I am about that age, I can safely say that most people do not have that kind of gaming set up in their rooms. Most just don't have the space to. The only ones I know who do are rich. For example, I have been told to work from home indefinetely now for the forseeable future and I have to work on the dining room table as that is the only spare space to put my laptop. I certainly would not have the space for 2 or 4 monitors as well.

 

[Bletchleyite]

As I am about that age, I can safely say that most people do not have that kind of gaming set up in their rooms. Most just don't have the space to. The only ones I know who do are rich. For example, I have been told to work from home indefinetely now for the forseeable future and I have to work on the dining room table as that is the only spare space to put my laptop. I certainly would not have the space for 2 or 4 monitors as well.

4 monitors? Now we are being silly.

Unless you have an incredibly small dining table (my desk is about 2' 6" by 1' 6") there is room for that. Eat off your knee on the sofa.

 

[Peregrine 4903]

4 monitors? Now we are being silly.

Unless you have an incredibly small dining table (my desk is about 2' 6" by 1' 6") there is room for that. Eat off your knee on the sofa.

We are going rather off topic but as I live with my parents they would never let me do that as its tradition we have to all eat together at the table in the evening. Meaning I would have to find somewhere to put the monitors when there is very limited space. Also it's not just me working from home, it's my parents as well who also use the dining room table and there certainly wont be space for even 2 monitors if all of us are working there.