Coronavirus: what impact might it have on the railways?

[221129]

the part of the article i was allowed to view due to the paywall didn't word as a management contract

The part you quoted describes a Management contract.

 

[rdlover777]

blame the clickbaiting headline then

 

[Toast is nice]

I am on the 1630 from Edinburgh to Kings Cross to sign some documents before returning on the sleeper in a few hours as my firm is on the cusp of announcing a travel ban and I needed to get down and back quickly. I can honestly say that this train journey is the most effective form of social distancing I have ever seen. In my carriage (in 1st) there have not been more than 6 passengers at any stage of the journey and it had a fairly high reservation rate from what I can see.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I have the front coach of the 1954 Euston-Northampton to myself and have had all the way. Wouldn't surprise me if I had the unit to myself TBH.

 

[PG]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/03/16/railways-nationalised-coronavirus-rescue-plan/

The move means the taxpayer will fund the country’s train network, making sure that services continue to run even if they are empty.

i'll try to find articles from other sites like BBC as telegraph is paywalled

My bold above - the torygraph obviously doesn't realise that the taxpayer already funds the rail network!

 

[LowLevel]

Things are moving to a different phase - at least one TOC is withdrawing all onboard catering from the start of service tomorrow, closing all first class lounges, removing all onboard ticket inspections and advising guards to remain in non public areas except where absolutely necessary for train dispatch or assisting customers with mobility needs/visual impairments etc.

 

[PG]

Is there any likelihood of services which would otherwise be cancelled due to shortage of train crew being allowed to operate as Driver Only Operation?

I can't imagine the RMT being terribly happy as it'd be the thin end of the wedge...

 

[yorkie]

Is there any likelihood of services which would otherwise be cancelled due to shortage of train crew being allowed to operate as Driver Only Operation?

I can't imagine the RMT being terribly happy as it'd be the thin end of the wedge...

You can't just suddenly implement a new method of operation on a whim; you need the infrastructure in place for it first.

 

[AndyHudds]

The commute from Huddersfield in to Leeds was a lot quieter than normal, so it does appear people are staying away, the streets of Leeds seemed a lot quieter too.

 

[Meerkat]

Wonder what the government will do about the open access operators, who will presumably be going pop very soon (do they have an obligation to run or can they ‘hibernate’ straight away?)
Let them go - ‘shareholder risk, not taxpayer’ - or is Covid an extreme circumstance worthy of helping them - You could equate them to the airlines that the gov might be about to help.

 

[yorkie]

I can't see open access getting any bailouts from Government

 

[Peregrine 4903]

Will all the TOCs inevitably have to be bailed out by the government considering the dire financial situations of most of them?

 

[PG]

You can't just suddenly implement a new method of operation on a whim; you need the infrastructure in place for it first.

I was more thinking of the likes of SWR and Northern who IIRC were both slated in the past to transfer some routes/services to DOO?

Or maybe thats fallen by the wayside now Graylings not in charge of transport.

 

[Meerkat]

If railway services dropped to a trickle, and assuming there won’t be layoffs (unlikely IMO), there will be an organised, effectively nationalised (at least temporarily), variously skilled workforce.
Are there any emergency uses for those people to support the government response?
I guess before that happens there will be a reallocation into upgrade work, testing, crew training, and new train introductions, and there is loads of work that could be done if widespread possessions were possible (two track possession on quadruple lines etc).

 

[bramling]

If railway services dropped to a trickle, and assuming there won’t be layoffs (unlikely IMO), there will be an organised, effectively nationalised (at least temporarily), variously skilled workforce.
Are there any emergency uses for those people to support the government response?
I guess before that happens there will be a reallocation into upgrade work, testing, crew training, and new train introductions, and there is loads of work that could be done if widespread possessions were possible (two track possession on quadruple lines etc).

To do that you need the planning staff at work, which may not be viable if people are working from home. Even a basic possession requires a fair bit of planning.

 

[Bletchleyite]

To do that you need the planning staff at work, which may not be viable if people are working from home.

No, you don't. You need them working. You do NOT need them at work.

 

[Meerkat]

And a possession needs less planning if it’s “you have the slow lines for a week” rather than nightly set up and take down.

 

[bramling]

No, you don't. You need them working. You do NOT need them at work.

Not so sure about that. For staff in some areas they will need access to specialist resources and need to interact with other staff. I’d question if parts of the industry are sufficiently close to being prepared to work in that way.

 

[Meerkat]

Not so sure about that. For staff in some areas they will need access to specialist resources and need to interact with other staff. I’d question if parts of the industry are sufficiently close to being prepared to work in that way.

Then surely they carry on? Home working is for those who can - if you can’t then you go to work and take precautions.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Not so sure about that. For staff in some areas they will need access to specialist resources and need to interact with other staff. I’d question if parts of the industry are sufficiently close to being prepared to work in that way.

Then they need to suspend all other work to get prepared for it. The work from home genie is out of the bottle. It cannot go back in, and there cannot be time for naysaying.

 

[yorksrob]

Personally, looking to a post-crisis future (whenever that will be) I think that the railway will return to something closer to normal.

I think that it's true that the shift away from 5 day a week office working may be accelerated, and economic recession may lead to work travel not recovering as quickly - but bear in mind the passenger network has been running beyond its capacity for some time. We might end up with passenger numbers more suited to the current network. Future projects such as Crossrail 2 might not be needed.

By contrast, I foresee a massive boom in demand for leisure travel as people get out and about again.

 

[Peregrine 4903]

Personally, looking to a post-crisis future (whenever that will be) I think that the railway will return to something closer to normal.

I think that it's true that the shift away from 5 day a week office working may be accelerated, and economic recession may lead to work travel not recovering as quickly - but bear in mind the passenger network has been running beyond its capacity for some time. We might end up with passenger numbers more suited to the current network. Future projects such as Crossrail 2 might not be needed.

By contrast, I foresee a massive boom in demand for leisure travel as people get out and about again.

I 100% agree with the boom in Leisure travel. When things finally return to seem element of normality people who have been cooped up at home for months will be desperate to get out of their homes, whether that be going on holiday or going out for the day/evening which in my opinion will likely see passenger numbers boom at weekends and in the evenings, which may offset the reduction in commuter traffic. Plus increased working from home will likely see increased leisure travel as people will be more likely to travel intro central london and places like that in the evening. It may see a far better balancing out of the flow of people across the day, compared to how it currently is where its concentrated in the morning and evening peak.

 

[Peregrine 4903]

Plus its not like people will cease to commute after the coronavirus outbreak ends. There will still be significant amounts of people commuting, just probably less than there were previously. How much less we will have to wait and see. It may not be significantly less or less at all, or it could be a quite large permanent drop but I doubt that will happen.

 

[Meerkat]

By contrast, I foresee a massive boom in demand for leisure travel as people get out and about again.

A leisure boom would rely on how badly the economy is affected.

 

[Peregrine 4903]

A leisure boom would rely on how badly the economy is affected.

That is very true, I still think you would probably initially got more people out and about travelling after beeing cooped at home for months, but after that, if the economic crash is really bad the Leisure Boom might not be very big at all.

 

[mmh]

It's an important question, and I largely agree with all the posts. There is an existing thread for this topic: https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/coronavirus-what-impact-might-it-have-on-the-railways.202196/

 

[yorksrob]

A leisure boom would rely on how badly the economy is affected.

True, but I can imagine people prioritising what disposable income they have on getting out.

 

[Peregrine 4903]

True, but I can imagine people prioritising what disposable income they have on getting out.

Yes, I feel like people will be more concerned about their wellbeing and mental health and will prioritise their money for leisure activity compared to the 2008 financial crisis where the circumstances were very different.

 

[Shimbleshanks]

That is very true, I still think you would probably initially got more people out and about travelling after beeing cooped at home for months, but after that, if the economic crash is really bad the Leisure Boom might not be very big at all.

But how much of that travel would be by rail, or any public transport? People would be far more likely to take to their cars, especially if they feel nervous about catching viruses. I think this will finish off some of the more marginal rail services; government will play the 'national emergency' card to allow closures to happen.

 

[yorksrob]

Yes, I feel like people will be more concerned about their wellbeing and mental health and will prioritise their money for leisure activity compared to the 2008 financial crisis where the circumstances were very different.

Indeed - I would have thought manufacturers of indoor entertainment systems would have more to fear at such a time.

But how much of that travel would be by rail, or any public transport? People would be far more likely to take to their cars, especially if they feel nervous about catching viruses. I think this will finish off some of the more marginal rail services; government will play the 'national emergency' card to allow closures to happen.

Well, even though the advice is to avoid non essential travel, motorists have the option of driving to a spot in the middle of nowhere without risking anything.

It's those of us who rely on public transport who are effectively restricted to walking distance. We will need a change of scene.

I don't think people will be particularly scared of viruses outside of a pandemic. As for fear of the next one, I don't think it's likely to start on the British railway network.