Imagine if HS2 was cancelled?

[Rhydgaled]

From Phase 2b, the Birmingham-Scotland service transfers to HS2, so that's in theory a path Birmingham-Wolverhampton-Crewe.

Ok, so that would free up a path then if Birmingham-Scotland on HS2 means the classic Birmingham-Wolverhampton-Scotland service is withdrawn; means Wolverhampton would lose its through services to Scotland though.

And although HS2 in theory replaces XC Manchester-Birmingham, you're still going to need similar paths to maintain links/commuter capacity via Stoke.

As planned it couldn't do that, unless you are willing to remove the Bristol/Reading-Manchester through services forcing changes in Birmingham (or diversion of Bristol-Manchester away from Birmingham, eg. via the Welsh Marches). Only a tunnel into Curzon Street from the south west would allow Manchester-Birmingham-Bristol services to use HS2 and services from Reading/Southampton/Bournemouth are likely to continue needing to use New Street.

 

[The Ham]

Ok, so that would free up a path then if Birmingham-Scotland on HS2 means the classic Birmingham-Wolverhampton-Scotland service is withdrawn; means Wolverhampton would lose its through services to Scotland though.

As planned it couldn't do that, unless you are willing to remove the Bristol/Reading-Manchester through services forcing changes in Birmingham (or diversion of Bristol-Manchester away from Birmingham, eg. via the Welsh Marches). Only a tunnel into Curzon Street from the south west would allow Manchester-Birmingham-Bristol services to use HS2 and services from Reading/Southampton/Bournemouth are likely to continue needing to use New Street.

Rail travel from Basingstoke and southwards using the existing service patterns to get to Old Oak Common (used Paddington for times) and then onwards to Birmingham (using Euston for times) is comparable to the existing XC services. Going to Manchester is faster. (Feel free to check).

As such the only place which is likely to lose out is Oxford (Banbury and northwards would still have other services).

If you were to create through services from the South Coast to Old Oak Common you'd make the journey quicker (cuts about 15 minutes from the journey time). Given that XC services wouldn't be that useful for many, you could use their paths South of Reading for a Paddington service.

Yes it would mean a change of trains, however it would be faster and it would be more frequent for most other XC destinations other than Birmingham and places South.

You then create a Reading/Birmingham service and everyone changes at Birmingham. You mainly only impact on passengers to/from Oxford.

However it gives you one extra path an hour northwards from Birmingham for the suggested service. You could even join up the two service so that it runs Reading to Holyhead.

 

[The Planner]

As planned it couldn't do that, unless you are willing to remove the Bristol/Reading-Manchester through services forcing changes in Birmingham (or diversion of Bristol-Manchester away from Birmingham, eg. via the Welsh Marches). Only a tunnel into Curzon Street from the south west would allow Manchester-Birmingham-Bristol services to use HS2 and services from Reading/Southampton/Bournemouth are likely to continue needing to use New Street.

They become semi-fast or local north of Birmingham, they end up stopping at places like Galton Bridge/Sandwell& Dudley and Congleton. The second train now stops at Macclesfield because of dead time produced by May 18.

 

[Ianno87]

Ok, so that would free up a path then if Birmingham-Scotland on HS2 means the classic Birmingham-Wolverhampton-Scotland service is withdrawn; means Wolverhampton would lose its through services to Scotland though.

But there needs to be *some* pragmatism around future direct links. I think it's irrational to say Station X and Y have a direct service today so therefore it must always be preserved.

I'd wager there may be fewer passengers that use Wolves-Scotland currently than would benefit from North Wales/Chester-Birmingham being significantly accelerated.

HS2 is a huge opportunity to remap the whole network for the connectivity needs of the future - the starting point should certainly not be protecting every single direct link that just so happens to exist today.

As planned it couldn't do that, unless you are willing to remove the Bristol/Reading-Manchester through services forcing changes in Birmingham (or diversion of Bristol-Manchester away from Birmingham, eg. via the Welsh Marches). Only a tunnel into Curzon Street from the south west would allow Manchester-Birmingham-Bristol services to use HS2 and services from Reading/Southampton/Bournemouth are likely to continue needing to use New Street.

Again the through passengers need some context. Given that, even with a change of train New Street-Curzon Street, a typical Oxford-Manchester passenger is still likely to be best part of half an hour better off by changing to HS2

Although in this case, given XC-equivalent paths are still needed via Stoke, you could argue it may as well continue as a through service. I see as HS2 as effectively creating new demand on top of the existing XC service - the vast journey time reduction between Manchester and Birmingham will capture a large number of road journeys currently disincentivised by the relatively poor XC journey time.

 

[MarkyT]

Only a tunnel into Curzon Street from the south west would allow Manchester-Birmingham-Bristol services to use HS2 and services from Reading/Southampton/Bournemouth are likely to continue needing to use New Street.

Not necessarily. With suitable additional connections between the new terminal throat and the conventional network, HSXC trains might reverse in Curzon St. allowing a full length train from Manchester or Leeds to split in the long platforms, with portions for South Coast via Oxford and South West via Bristol or South Wales.

 

[JamesT]

Again the through passengers need some context. Given that, even with a change of train New Street-Curzon Street, a typical Oxford-Manchester passenger is still likely to be best part of half an hour better off by changing to HS2

Although in this case, given XC-equivalent paths are still needed via Stoke, you could argue it may as well continue as a through service. I see as HS2 as effectively creating new demand on top of the existing XC service - the vast journey time reduction between Manchester and Birmingham will capture a large number of road journeys currently disincentivised by the relatively poor XC journey time.

With Oxford-Manchester the obvious changing point seems to me to be Birmingham International/Interchange. That would hopefully be more convenient that walking between the two city centre stations and alleviate some pressure on New Street. I’m not sure what the current limitations are, but if both XC services through Oxford stopped there it would be much better for making connections than the current setup where only half go to the airport.

 

[swt_passenger]

With Oxford-Manchester the obvious changing point seems to me to be Birmingham International/Interchange. That would hopefully be more convenient that walking between the two city centre stations and alleviate some pressure on New Street. I’m not sure what the current limitations are, but if both XC services through Oxford stopped there it would be much better for making connections than the current setup where only half go to the airport.

I think it’s generally been assumed that the removal of some WCML services from the Coventry to New St route will allow both XC services to run that way.

 

[Ianno87]

With Oxford-Manchester the obvious changing point seems to me to be Birmingham International/Interchange. That would hopefully be more convenient that walking between the two city centre stations and alleviate some pressure on New Street. I’m not sure what the current limitations are, but if both XC services through Oxford stopped there it would be much better for making connections than the current setup where only half go to the airport.

Excellent point. Oxford-Manchester via the direct XC today takes somewhere in the region of 2hr 50 mins or so.

Oxford-Birmingham International takes about 1 hour, then maybe another 40 mins or so from Interchange to Piccadilly direct via HS2 (plus the time needed to change from International to Interchange). That'd be a phenominal improvement.

 

[agbrs_Jack]

They become semi-fast or local north of Birmingham, they end up stopping at places like Galton Bridge/Sandwell& Dudley and Congleton. The second train now stops at Macclesfield because of dead time produced by May 18.

Rather annoying that second XC calling at Macclesfield when we are in need of a second tph.
Congleton is very underserved and the lack of capacity (and TOC willingness) doesn't help implement additional services. The last 3 years have resulted in zero service gain, the only gains simply being reinstated services that were axed in 2018.
That coupled with Northern repeatedly failing to improve our abysmal Sunday service makes things even worse.

HS2 would've released capacity for 2tph Mon-Sat at Congleton. This makes the station more viable for more people, could reduce the amount of people who drive to Macclesfield for the better service level. There is a staggering amount of new housing being built here, so much suppressed demand that is just ignored. HS2 would be great, but without Handsacre Junction it has much less benefit to us in Congleton making it harder to convince residents that are already skeptical.

 

[Rhydgaled]

But there needs to be *some* pragmatism around future direct links. I think it's irrational to say Station X and Y have a direct service today so therefore it must always be preserved.

I'd wager there may be fewer passengers that use Wolves-Scotland currently than would benefit from North Wales/Chester-Birmingham being significantly accelerated.

A good point well made. I'd be wary of the complaints it would likely get from Wolves-Scotland passengers, but if there's more winners than losers then go for it.

With Oxford-Manchester the obvious changing point seems to me to be Birmingham International/Interchange. That would hopefully be more convenient that walking between the two city centre stations and alleviate some pressure on New Street.

That would seem to make Oxford-Manchester via HS2 (with a change) significantly quicker than the current through service, which weakens the case for a HS2 link from Curzon Street to Crewe via Wolverhampton. Of my two options, I'm therefore leaning towards the one which links Curzon Street to the Worcester Parkway area (for onward classic-line running to Bristol).