Making the Conwy Valley less uneconomic

[Bletchleyite]

Maybe we can all agree that while Blaenau has a significant cultural scene and a number of tourist attractions in the immediate area, it's not a very successful commercial centre at the moment.

Or at any point over the last 25 years or so in which I've been making visits between trains. The cafe opposite the station was always reasonable (assuming it's still there) and there's a chippy somewhere there (what Welsh village doesn't have one?) but other than that...

It could be a nice little tourist town but it isn't. Maybe it needs some more investment to encourage the opening of small businesses like cafes and the likes?

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Whilst all aforementioned hypothetical postings are interesting, one must always be mindful of whatsoever the weather actually brings, that could obviate these.

I have just looked at the BBC Conwy Valley weather hourly forecast for today and see there is a Yellow Weather Warning in force that notes heavy rainfall and its associated flood warnings.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Whilst all aforementioned hypothetical postings are interesting, one must always be mindful of whatsoever the weather actually brings, that could obviate these.

I have just looked at the BBC Conwy Valley weather hourly forecast for today and see there is a Yellow Weather Warning in force that notes heavy rainfall and its associated flood warnings.

There seems to be a yellow weather warning every week or two - I think it's starting to lose value with the threshold being so low.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

There seems to be a yellow weather warning every week or two - I think it's starting to lose value with the threshold being so low.

Yellow weather warnings on level ground do tend to have a somewhat less sombre warning than in those areas of steep valleys, as I can speak from the events in Boscastle that occurred some years ago.

 

[option]

Those figures don't tell the whole story. Betws has a low population but an absolutely massive tourist "population" plus connectional demand onto the Snowdon Sherpa network. It's an ideal transport hub for the National Park to reduce car usage. Blaenau may have a population of 4K but barely any tourists go there except for a wander round and a fag while waiting for the return Ffestiniog train.

Betws has one Snowdon Sherpa bus service, the S2, & that's hourly.
[9:10, 10:10, 11:10, 12:10]
but the train arrives at Betws at 07:55, 10:56, 13:58
So the only reasonable connection from train to Sherpa is the 10:56>11:10 (you could get the earlier train & then try & kill an hour that early in the morning, anywhere going to be open?)

Coming back [15:17, 16:17, 17:12, 18:22]
but the train back to Llandudno is 15:24, 18:03
So again, one reasonable connection, the next one is again an hour to kill.

It's 35minutes each way on the bus, so could be in Llanberis for 11:45, but would need to leave at 14:30. That's not much time is it?
Or, if you don't mind trying to find stuff to fill 2 hours at awkward times of the day, you could be in Llanberis for 9:45 & leave at 16:30.

https://www.gwynedd.llyw.cymru/en/R...king,-roads-and-travel/Map-Sherpar-Wyddfa.pdf
http://www.swissitalianpaddlesteamers.com/snowdonsherpa/llanberis-betwsycoed.html#outward


I'm not sure how that is "connectional"

 

[Bletchleyite]

I'm not sure how that is "connectional"

It isn't now, but as these services are tendered it is within the Council's power to sort that out.

If you check which forum this is in and read upthread you will see that my proposal includes changes to bus services to make Betws the gateway to eastern Snowdonia. (Bangor probably makes more sense for the west).

 

[Belperpete]

You would likely find that cutting the service back saves very little;
if you've increased the frequency on the north half*, then there are zero savings on stock & staff running costs. (even if you dont, the hours round trip won't be costing much)
possibly no savings on Network Rail charges
You would then have to subsidise an alternative public transport provision.
* even if you've doubled it, that's still only a train every 1.5hours

I think you are totally misunderstanding the proposal. The objective is to provide an improved service, not make savings. A train every 1.5 hours may not be a metro service, but it would still be considerably better than the current train every 3 hours. And it could be made into a train every hour without any infrastructure improvements (just an extra train and crew).

Although there would be zero savings on stock and staff, NR would have a maintenance saving. That saving could be used to increase the maintenance on the remaining half of the line, giving useful linespeed increases.

Agreed that extra subsidy would be needed to run additional buses between Blaenau and Bettws. But as originally stated, with an improved rail service between Bettws and Llandudno, the existing bus service between those places could be reduced, and the subsidy transferred.

So, without any infrastructure investment, instead of the current very-poorly-used three-hourly service, we could have an hourly service between Blaenau and Llandudno, albeit needing a change from bus to train at Bettws.

 

[Tomos y Tanc]

Maybe we can all agree that while Blaenau has a significant cultural scene and a number of tourist attractions in the immediate area, it's not a very successful commercial centre at the moment.

I'll buy that. Without delving too far into the past, the decision to exclude Blaenau from the Snowdonia national park when it was established was a huge mistake. It was like excluding Windemere from the Lake Distirict. There is no reason why Blaenau shouldn't be a prosperous town. Caernarfon's rebirth over the last twenty years is an example of what could be achieved.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I'll buy that. Without delving too far into the past, the decision to exclude Blaenau from the Snowdonia national park when it was established was a huge mistake.

What was the reason for that? Was it still industrial at that point?

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think you are totally misunderstanding the proposal. The objective is to provide an improved service, not make savings. A train every 1.5 hours may not be a metro service, but it would still be considerably better than the current train every 3 hours. And it could be made into a train every hour without any infrastructure improvements (just an extra train and crew).

Indeed. I think I'd go 2 hourly clockface just to make everything connect better, but the idea is to make it less uneconomic by getting more people to use it by increasing the frequency on the busier part of the line (if the ideal of increasing the frequency on the whole thing by way of an extra unit and crew is not viable).

 

[Belperpete]

Betws has one Snowdon Sherpa bus service, the S2, & that's hourly.
[9:10, 10:10, 11:10, 12:10]
but the train arrives at Betws at 07:55, 10:56, 13:58
So the only reasonable connection from train to Sherpa is the 10:56>11:10 (you could get the earlier train & then try & kill an hour that early in the morning, anywhere going to be open?)
Coming back [15:17, 16:17, 17:12, 18:22]
but the train back to Llandudno is 15:24, 18:03
So again, one reasonable connection, the next one is again an hour to kill.

I think you make the point very well that the current three-hourly train service is next-to-useless for tourists, as well as locals. If the train service to Bettws was hourly, the same as the bus service, then at worst you would have an hour to wait for the connection. Unfortunately, the only way we are going to get an hourly train service to Bettws is with some totally-unaffordable investment (extra passing loops and almost total rebuilding of the Bettws-Blaenau section to improve linespeeds) or lose the Bettws-Blaenau section.

 

[Tomos y Tanc]

I have no idea why Blaenau wasn't in the national park. I presume it was with good intentions, probably to protect the dying slate industry.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I'll buy that. When the Snowdonia national park was established the decision to exclude Blaenau was fatal for the town. It was like excluding Windemere from the Lake District NP. Caernarfon's rebirth shows what Blaenau could become.

Caernarfon has a nice seafront, a castle and a pleasant town square - so it had the makings of being a nice place. Blaenau less so. How would you have envisaged things panning out? At best it could perhaps have been more like Llanberis, which like Fort Bill (being another town at the bottom of a famous big hill) is hardly salubrious.

 

[30907]

I have no idea why Blaenau wasn't in the national park. I presume it was with good intentions, probably to protect the dying slate industry.

Restrictions on building etc in a NP are pretty severe. Pretty mucb any town of significance is excluded (including Caernarfon), the largest in it are Harlech and Betws. Same applies elsewhere (Bowness and Keswick are exceptions to the rule).

 

[Bald Rick]

Caernarfon's rebirth over the last twenty years is an example of what could be achieved.

Indeed. Notably, without a main line railway connection.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Indeed. Notably, without a main line railway connection.

Overall probably easier to reach from the mainline than Blaenau, with a frequent bus connection from Bangor outside the station.

 

[Bald Rick]

Overall probably easier to reach from the mainline than Blaenau, with a frequent bus connection from Bangor outside the station.

Which proves the point. For regeneration you don’t need to build a railway. Improve the bus service.

 

[option]

I think you are totally misunderstanding the proposal. The objective is to provide an improved service, not make savings. A train every 1.5 hours may not be a metro service, but it would still be considerably better than the current train every 3 hours. And it could be made into a train every hour without any infrastructure improvements (just an extra train and crew).

Although there would be zero savings on stock and staff, NR would have a maintenance saving. That saving could be used to increase the maintenance on the remaining half of the line, giving useful linespeed increases.

Agreed that extra subsidy would be needed to run additional buses between Blaenau and Bettws. But as originally stated, with an improved rail service between Bettws and Llandudno, the existing bus service between those places could be reduced, and the subsidy transferred.

So, without any infrastructure investment, instead of the current very-poorly-used three-hourly service, we could have an hourly service between Blaenau and Llandudno, albeit needing a change from bus to train at Bettws.

The question is "Making the Conwy Valley less uneconomic"
So that is either dealing with costs, or increasing usage so as to substantially increase the fares revenue.


That's increasing baseline costs!


The bus that currently does Blaenau-Betws is the same bus that goes down to Llandudno.
I don't know if the lower part gets subsidy, it might be busy enough to not do so. It also serves a lot more places than the train does, & your suggesting the service could be reduced.
If you want to run a regular shuttle bus between Blaenau-Betws, you'll likely have to give it 100% subsidy, & cover the empty run up & down from the depot.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The question is "Making the Conwy Valley less uneconomic"
So that is either dealing with costs, or increasing usage so as to substantially increase the fares revenue.

It's both. A higher frequency service to a tourist honeypot on the line coupled with a good quality system of (actually) connecting buses has potential to increase usage to offset the increased costs. Definitely on topic in my mind.

 

[option]

Interesting that Caernarfon has been mentioned.

There are 2 Sherpa services from there round Snowdon, as well as a bus to Llanberis.
Possibly more people base themselves there than at Llandudno for Snowdon.

You do have to wonder if a retained Bangor-Caernarfon-Llanberis line would be busier than the Conwy Valley.

 

[Bletchleyite]

You do have to wonder if a retained Bangor-Caernarfon-Llanberis line would be busier than the Conwy Valley.

Quite possible. The thing is that the status quo (keeping a railway open) is easier and cheaper than building one, even on an existing trackbed.

FWIW, I would support starting back Sherpa routes from Bangor station - indeed, if I was designing a "new Sherpa" with the aim of having Lakes style levels of tourist usage I'd be looking at at least one Bangor-Betws service via Llanberis and Pen y Pass which would have a Friday evening service and ideally be in the railway timetable system with through ticketing a la the old RailLinks concept (that or via Plusbus) - perhaps even running the buses into a "platform" in the car park by the ticket office rather than along the road a bit. While some services run via the station its location (away from the town and bus station) can be problematic.

FWIW it's much easier to serve than the Lakes because there are basically 3 main roads!

 

[option]

It's both. A higher frequency service to a tourist honeypot on the line coupled with a good quality system of (actually) connecting buses has potential to increase usage to offset the increased costs. Definitely on topic in my mind.

So what is the tourist honeypot on the line?

from wikipedia

The Office of Rail Regulation says 116,500 passenger journeys were made on the line in 2013/14, excluding exits and entries at the main line stations of Llandudno Junction, Deganwy and Llandudno. This was a small increase compared with the figure of 112,134 in 2012/13. Figures show that Blaenau Ffestiniog is the busiest of the line's stations with 44,828 passengers in 2013/14, followed by Betws-y-Coed with 35,400. Other stations have very low footfall with Dolgarrog attracting just 828 passengers in 2013/14.

Even if you have a really frequent shuttle bus combined with an increased train frequency, those numbers at Blaenau are going to drop considerably.
So you'd need to more than make up the drop.

 

[Bletchleyite]

So what is the tourist honeypot on the line?

Betws is a massive tourist honeypot - it's just that they are presently mostly there in cars because the train service (and bus service around the National Park itself) is awful. I'd venture that the higher usage at Blaenau is mostly locals plus a quantity of enthusiasts who do the whole thing because it's there but don't really spend any money in Blaenau except possibly running to the Co-op while the crew swap ends.

There's a massive long stay car park behind the station at Betws - go have a look at it if you're there any time soon - and even then it's often hard to get a space. Where there's a poor train service the station usage figures do not tell the whole story.

 

[option]

Are the 230s still going to the line?

If so, they are supposedly cheaper (for lease, depot & fuel) than the current 150.
It would need additional staff, but it could be an opportunity to test a more frequent service for a year.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Are the 230s still going to the line?

If so, they are supposedly cheaper (for lease, depot & fuel) than the current 150.
It would need additional staff, but it could be an opportunity to test a more frequent service for a year.

As the loop can't be used for passing trains (given this why on earth it's not decommissioned I have no idea) it'd have to involve some split-up of the token sections and having a "fill in" to Betws and back with a second unit while the first one was on the way down to Blaenau - but given the simplicity of the line that might still be worth a go.

Once it's using CAF units like everything else it'd be far easier to use through running to make the pattern a bit more useful, though, e.g. have a morning and evening commuter service from Blaenau rather than being badly timed for both a 9am start and a 5:30-6pm finish as is required for the primarily retail jobs in Llandudno town. At present you can only use a captive unit as everything else is LHCS, 175 or 158, none of which fit or are practical to use.

 

[Tomos y Tanc]

Betws is a massive tourist honeypot - it's just that they are presently mostly there in cars because the train service (and bus service around the National Park itself) is awful.

On that we can agree! Betws is a big attraction without doubt but, since this the speculative thread, I would argue theat Blaenau has far greater potential.

Betws has Ffos Noddun / Fairy Glen, a pleasant high street and not much else. Blaenau has the Ffestiniog Railway, Bounce Below, Llechwedd, Antur Stiniog, Cell B and more. The problem is that the town centre feels pretty grim because it's a de-industrialised working class community. Blaenau is improving though and, in terms of creating a sustainable economy for the national park rather than a drop-off point for tourists, Blaeanau should be the priority

 

[Meerkat]

Those attractions aren’t in Blaeanau though, and families and coach parties won’t walk out that far.
There is no river or greenery, it’s usually raining, and the narrow high street is a trunk road not really ideal for wandering along. And as it’s hemmed in and in the National Park there is no chance for hotel developments or such like.

 

[splashoutradio]

The big problem with this suggestion is that you cannot currently cross trains at Llanrwst North. It would need significant investment to refurbish or renew the interlocking to allow it, which could hardly be justified for a summer-time trial.

At first, because of the additional trains that ran over the line during the Eisteddfod Genedlaethol, I was under the impression that trains had been using the loop to cross. But after checking the timetable for the line, it appears with the exception of the steam special, the signal box at Llanrwst was just used as a blockpost in order to allow a train to be both north and south of the box at the same time, as well as overseeing the loop/siding at Blaenau. Does anyone know if the signalling was relied upon to cross the steam train with the regular service, or was it an orange army with flags and walkie-talkie kind of job?

For reference, here is the timetable for the Eisteddfod, showing the 'WR' steam service scheduled to cross with the 'AW' regular services at North Llanrwst: http://railwaydata.co.uk/timetables/May19/timetable.php?table=CYM

 

[30907]

Once it's using CAF units like everything else it'd be far easier to use through running to make the pattern a bit more useful, though, e.g. have a morning and evening commuter service from Blaenau rather than being badly timed for both a 9am start and a 5:30-6pm finish as is required for the primarily retail jobs in Llandudno town. At present you can only use a captive unit as everything else is LHCS, 175 or 158, none of which fit or are practical to use.

That would actually be very simple - trains from BFF at 0730ish and every 3 hours returning at 0600 etc.
Or - with a new service spec - you could run through to BFF during the "tourist day" and have a slightly more frequent service turning at Betws early and late.

 

[Llanigraham]

It can feel that way. It's very early days in it's recovery but here's a few interesting facts for you.

Blaenau based artist Richard Long recently had an extremely well recieved exhibitions at the National Museum in Cardiff.

https://www.artfund.org/supporting-...d-buy/artwork/11905/blaenau-ffestiniog-circle

Blaenau is at the heart of Welsh language music scene having produced more bands and artists than any other town in Wales incliding Yws Gwynedd who regualrly tops the 'all time top 100' in Wales.

Llechwedd and Bounce Below are high class and popular tourist attractions.

Look, I get it. I'm a Welsh speaker and Blaenau is a magical place for me, the heart of Eryri and a place of huge cultural and historical significance. I can understand why others might prefer the English Victorian confection of "Betsie Koyd". Your countryside playground is my cultural homeland and that's fine. It can be both.

If you want to understand Blaenau though just ask someone local. It's not that hard if you drop your blinkers.

Well said, but I'm afraid that there are many here who cannot or will not accept that.
Diolch!