What will be running on our railways in twenty years' time? A few ideas for replacements for current stock, and I don't mean IEP/SET.
Eurostar stock is still exactly the same as when the Channel Tunnel opened. However HS1 is more than big enough for a Duplex TGV to take over the route. I am expecting that Eurostar will place a massive joint order for something resembling AGV, possibly double-decked, in about 2020. When that happens, the current Eurostars may just go off to the scrapyard, or may form part of a new HS2 domestic fleet, since they can run through to anywhere with a C3 loading gauge. However, an additional order from Hitachi is another option there, so we will see 395/5s or 396s running off HS2 to the north and Scotland.
The last HSTs will finally retire around 2025.
Class 91s may soldier on into the 2030s on the ECML, or may transfer to other lines if they ever electrify the Midland. However, there is the possibility of a new electric locomotive to run with the Mk IVs or perhaps a Pendolino order.
However, the interesting one will be if someone grasps the nettle and orders a replacement local train, to take over from both Pacers and Sprinters. This is the one I would order. It would have bogies, run no faster than 75 mph, produce lower emissions than any class it replaced (partly by keeping engine size small), be available in single- two- or three-car versions, be at least as comfortable inside as a 156, have doors at the ends of the vehicles, have a 156's hill-climbing ability, be fully 'winterised' for use in Scotland and have plenty of luggage space. Call it the Class 160. The idea is to come up with a train that can run from St Erth-St Ives, Norwich-Sheringham, Darlington-Bishop Aukland or Wick-Inverness with equal efficiency, yet be better than anything it replaces. The GWR did it with the 45XX/B-Set combination and the Auto Train. BR tried it three times (the smaller Standards, 1st gen DMUs and Sprinters).
Yes, there will be units such as 170s, 172s and 185s still around. None of these is really suited to light work, since they were designed around regional express or suburban duty, and are overpowered for the purpose. As a result, they are heavy and use too much fuel. It's also a bit of a waste to have 100 mph units on 50-75 mph branch lines with frequent stops. Besides, they will be getting on a bit by then, especially the older 170s. I would use them to cascade out the 158s (which would go out of service) and have Voyagers/Meridians/Dellas on TPX and Waterloo-Exeter. Not sure what will replace the Voyagers, Meridians and Dellas, but it had better have a higher internal capacity.
As for electric units and freight, well that's anybody's guess.
Eurostar stock is still exactly the same as when the Channel Tunnel opened. However HS1 is more than big enough for a Duplex TGV to take over the route. I am expecting that Eurostar will place a massive joint order for something resembling AGV, possibly double-decked, in about 2020. When that happens, the current Eurostars may just go off to the scrapyard, or may form part of a new HS2 domestic fleet, since they can run through to anywhere with a C3 loading gauge. However, an additional order from Hitachi is another option there, so we will see 395/5s or 396s running off HS2 to the north and Scotland.
The last HSTs will finally retire around 2025.
Class 91s may soldier on into the 2030s on the ECML, or may transfer to other lines if they ever electrify the Midland. However, there is the possibility of a new electric locomotive to run with the Mk IVs or perhaps a Pendolino order.
However, the interesting one will be if someone grasps the nettle and orders a replacement local train, to take over from both Pacers and Sprinters. This is the one I would order. It would have bogies, run no faster than 75 mph, produce lower emissions than any class it replaced (partly by keeping engine size small), be available in single- two- or three-car versions, be at least as comfortable inside as a 156, have doors at the ends of the vehicles, have a 156's hill-climbing ability, be fully 'winterised' for use in Scotland and have plenty of luggage space. Call it the Class 160. The idea is to come up with a train that can run from St Erth-St Ives, Norwich-Sheringham, Darlington-Bishop Aukland or Wick-Inverness with equal efficiency, yet be better than anything it replaces. The GWR did it with the 45XX/B-Set combination and the Auto Train. BR tried it three times (the smaller Standards, 1st gen DMUs and Sprinters).
Yes, there will be units such as 170s, 172s and 185s still around. None of these is really suited to light work, since they were designed around regional express or suburban duty, and are overpowered for the purpose. As a result, they are heavy and use too much fuel. It's also a bit of a waste to have 100 mph units on 50-75 mph branch lines with frequent stops. Besides, they will be getting on a bit by then, especially the older 170s. I would use them to cascade out the 158s (which would go out of service) and have Voyagers/Meridians/Dellas on TPX and Waterloo-Exeter. Not sure what will replace the Voyagers, Meridians and Dellas, but it had better have a higher internal capacity.
As for electric units and freight, well that's anybody's guess.
