If WCML Modernisation had worked, what would the line's capacity be today?

[krus_aragon]

The modernisation of the West Coast route promised 140mph operation by 2002. It famously didn't. But if it had, Pendolinos would have been able to operate at their design speed of 140mph. SuperVoyagers, on the other hand, were only designed for 125mph.

Today, the southern portions of the WCML are designed around fast passenger trains operating at 125mph, slow pasenger trains operating at 110mph, and some freight paths too. (Correct me if I'm wrong.)

Let's assume for the sake of argument that the upgrades had all been delivered as planned. That would mean that there'd be three different speeds of passenger train: 140mph, 125mph, and 110mph.

What sort of impact would this have on the pathing constraints of the route? Would capacity be reduced compared to what we have today, for example?

 

[The Planner]

Depends on if they sorted out the fabled moving block, you could probably be running some sections on 2 minute headways.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

The PUG2 agreement effectively mandated the fast lines to be 100% 140 mph operation - putting everything else onto the slow lines.

The "residual" traffics would have seriously extended journey times for such flows as Northampton - London in the peak , and major impacts on freight services. Which is why the ORR got involved in mid 1999.

 

[krus_aragon]

Thanks for the insight.

Thinking more about it, would Virgin have been operating many Voyagers into Euston back then? They had their quartet of four-car SuperVoyagers that they'd ordered specially for the North Wales service, but I'm not sure if there'd have been anything else about. (Route maps from c. 2005/2006 describe all other routes out of Euston as Pendolino operated; only North Wales services are Pendolino & Voyager.) Other non-electrified West Coast routes (Shrewsbury, Blackpool) were being trimmed away around then, iirc.

On that basis, I suppose sending North Wales' Voyagers along the slow lines would have been an acceptable compromise for VT. That'd just leave all the local services to suffer with them on the slows.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Thanks for the insight.

Thinking more about it, would Virgin have been operating many Voyagers into Euston back then? They had their quartet of four-car SuperVoyagers that they'd ordered specially for the North Wales service, but I'm not sure if there'd have been anything else about. (Route maps from c. 2005/2006 describe all other routes out of Euston as Pendolino operated; only North Wales services are Pendolino & Voyager.) Other non-electrified West Coast routes (Shrewsbury, Blackpool) were being trimmed away around then, iirc.

On that basis, I suppose sending North Wales' Voyagers along the slow lines would have been an acceptable compromise for VT. That'd just leave all the local services to suffer with them on the slows.

The whole thing was a disaster in the making - as Railtrack had no tangible way of delivering the service pattern they had contracted , let alone no confidence in what "extra" infrastructure was needed (such as grade seperation at Nuneaton) , as for the sad tale that became Stockport, matters are best left buried.

North Wales kicked up a massive stink over what they had originally been promised in 1997 , and let us not forget that FNW actually had "rights" for 4 trains a day from Holyhead to Euston , which is what the original plan was for the class 175 sets , (or some of them) , before the build was de-scoped. In the light of the firestorm that FNW had elsewhere - the Holyhead plan was quietly dropped.

An "impartial" history of the WCML upgrade is really needed , there were some very pertinent articles at the time by the likes of Roger Ford.

 

[HSTEd]

I assume in the intervening period, someone would have attempted to build an ICE-TD esque 140mph diesel tilting unit.

That or the IEP would have been some sort of tilting bi-mode.....

 

[Bald Rick]

The modernisation of the West Coast route promised 140mph operation by 2002. It famously didn't. But if it had, Pendolinos would have been able to operate at their design speed of 140mph. SuperVoyagers, on the other hand, were only designed for 125mph.

Today, the southern portions of the WCML are designed around fast passenger trains operating at 125mph, slow pasenger trains operating at 110mph, and some freight paths too. (Correct me if I'm wrong.)

Let's assume for the sake of argument that the upgrades had all been delivered as planned. That would mean that there'd be three different speeds of passenger train: 140mph, 125mph, and 110mph.

What sort of impact would this have on the pathing constraints of the route? Would capacity be reduced compared to what we have today, for example?

The PUG2 agreement effectively mandated the fast lines to be 100% 140 mph operation - putting everything else onto the slow lines.

The "residual" traffics would have seriously extended journey times for such flows as Northampton - London in the peak , and major impacts on freight services. Which is why the ORR got involved in mid 1999.

The plan was:

Fast lines were 140mph, segregated. W Mids x 4, Manchester x 2 (1 each route), Liverpool x 1, Scotland x 1, N Wales / Chester wasn’t hourly, can’t remember the frequency but 2 or 3 hourly I think.

All with Pendolinos. (Diesel hauled from Crewe for N Wales). This is what dictated the original fleet size.

The 140 only went to Crewe, and there were some long stretches where it couldn’t be achieved anyway. Time saving to Manchester was a handful of minutes over 125, and only then via Crewe.

Everything else was on the slows. Including the then Silverlink peak fast services (nothing was fast off peak back then), Railnet parcels traffic, and the Eurostar north of London services, which still had access rights. And all the freight, obviously.


I would contend in the strongest terms that the WCRM has ‘worked’, indeed it works rather better than the plan described above.

 

[Bald Rick]

I assume in the intervening period, someone would have attempted to build an ICE-TD esque 140mph diesel tilting unit.

That or the IEP would have been some sort of tilting bi-mode.....

No plans for that.

 

[HSTEd]

No plans for that.

Well the upgrade was something like 20 years ago, its impossible to tell just what sort of things might have happened in the intervening time - it had a huge effect on the British rail industry after all.
If the whole thing hadn't fallen apart 140mph tilting trains might have become something used more widely.

It's just like someone positing what would have happened if we had just build an LGV from London to Birmingham in the 90s.
Or if the Virgin ECML plan had actually been implemented.

 

[krus_aragon]

All with Pendolinos. (Diesel hauled from Crewe for N Wales). This is what dictated the original fleet size.

Would the 4-car 221s (141 to 144) have been a tag-on order when that original plan didn't work out, then?

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Everything else was on the slows. Including the then Silverlink peak fast services (nothing was fast off peak back then)

I never correct you , but there was a half hourly , weekday, fast Northampton - calling only at Milton Keynes.

Came in as there were existing rights , and then "spare" slots in 1996 onwards. Railtrack accepted them.

Outside the peak , most SLK services were semi-fast , bar the flagship services above , even the Birminghams , which went up to half hourly for most of the day beyond Northampton.

 

[Bald Rick]

I never correct you , but there was a half hourly , weekday, fast Northampton - calling only at Milton Keynes.

Came in as there were existing rights , and then "spare" slots in 1996 onwards. Railtrack accepted them.

Outside the peak , most SLK services were semi-fast , bar the flagship services above , even the Birminghams , which went up to half hourly for most of the day beyond Northampton.

Sorry Guv, didn’t remember them.

 

[Bald Rick]

Would the 4-car 221s (141 to 144) have been a tag-on order when that original plan didn't work out, then?

Don’t know I’m afraid.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Sorry Guv, didn’t remember them.

Much appreciated trains , and of course a challenge for PUG2 , - the growth of SLUG (Slow Lines Users Group) , was partly geared at retaining "fair access" for other services , which resulted in the ORR belatedly taking an interest (they of course having approved basic monopolistic rights on the fast lines) , and thus began a major review of service patterns etc. Leading to "Black Diamond Day" when RT were require to present holistic timetable plans for all users -including 42 extra freight train paths (November 1999)

Meanwhile , RT had basically begun to lose it on simple matters such as track renewals , resignalling , (comments above re Stockport , "moving block" etc) , though the delayed Euston remodelling was done - and Proof House Junction was well managed.

 

[30907]

The plan was:

Fast lines were 140mph, segregated. W Mids x 4, Manchester x 2 (1 each route), Liverpool x 1, Scotland x 1, N Wales / Chester wasn’t hourly, can’t remember the frequency but 2 or 3 hourly I think.

All with Pendolinos. (Diesel hauled from Crewe for N Wales). This is what dictated the original fleet size.

The totsl number of departures is lower than 2008! Wasn't Manchester more frequent?
Also, I thought there was a small allocation of Voyagers for N Wales in early plans, maybe not the very first - I recall someone involved commenting on the extremely optimistic utilisation proposed.

 

[krus_aragon]

Also, I thought there was a small allocation of Voyagers for N Wales in early plans, maybe not the very first - I recall someone involved commenting on the extremely optimistic utilisation proposed.

Yep. 221 141 - 144, the four car units. See http://www.nwrail.org.uk/c221.htm:

There were 44 Class 221 trains built, numbered 221 101 to 221 144. 101 to 140 were five-car trains built for Virgin Cross Country, and 141 to 144 were four-car sets which were intended for use by Virgin West Coast on the London - North Wales service. However, things have not worked out like this.

Prior to the introduction of the 221s, North Wales services were operated by HSTs.

 

[HSTEd]

Surely a fully segregated fast line settup can manage more than eight departures an hour?
Surely it should be stacked up at near signalling headway?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Surely a fully segregated fast line settup can manage more than eight departures an hour?
Surely it should be stacked up at near signalling headway?

Given that there are presently 9 plus the LNRs (2 to Ledburn and 1 to MKC?) and a couple of spare paths that open access operators are sniffing around, yes, I'd imagine so. But the south WCML was a different beast in 1995 - MK was probably half the size it is now for a start.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I never correct you , but there was a half hourly , weekday, fast Northampton - calling only at Milton Keynes.

Yes, there was prior to PUG2, but if PUG2 had happened they were going to get banished from the fast lines and thus probably killed off. (It turns out they were sort of killed off anyway, or rather a Leighton stop was added - they didn't return until the Trent Valley service was rerouted away from Northampton, and then at half the frequency).

Silverlink were sniffing around the idea of getting a couple of Pendolinos so they could keep them.

 

[Bald Rick]

The totsl number of departures is lower than 2008! Wasn't Manchester more frequent?
Also, I thought there was a small allocation of Voyagers for N Wales in early plans, maybe not the very first - I recall someone involved commenting on the extremely optimistic utilisation proposed.

Yes, 8 with an occasional 9th. Definitely no voyagers in the Virgin bid for the franchise.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Yes, there was prior to PUG2, but if PUG2 had happened they were going to get banished from the fast lines and thus probably killed off. (It turns out they were sort of killed off anyway, or rather a Leighton stop was added - they didn't return until the Trent Valley service was rerouted away from Northampton, and then at half the frequency).

Silverlink were sniffing around the idea of getting a couple of Pendolinos so they could keep them.

It was indeed considered , along with a new fleet of high performance EMU's vice the 321's and grade seperation of Hanslope Junction......all good ideas.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It was indeed considered , along with a new fleet of high performance EMU's vice the 321's and grade seperation of Hanslope Junction......all good ideas.

Indeed. Of course we did get high-performance EMUs in the end (though only because of the aborted SWT order) but not the other items.

 

[Bald Rick]

It was indeed considered , along with a new fleet of high performance EMU's vice the 321's and grade seperation of Hanslope Junction......all good ideas.

Grade separation at Ledburn was also looked at.

Having said that, and knowing how today’s TT works, I think it would have been (just) possible to flight the Virgins such that you could squeeze a Silverlink in on the fasts at 100mph between Euston and Ledburn, to then drop in front of the MK stopper. I don’t remember it being looked at, but I’d be surprised if it wasn’t.