Ideas for improving the North Cotswold Line

[4141]

If just a short section of line from Norton Junction until just before Worcestershire Parkway was doubled could WMR extend one of their Snow Hill line trains to Worcestershire Parkway each hour to provide better connections south for places like Kidderminster and Stourbridge without having to go via Birmingham. I know the long term timetable wants GWR to operate an hourly service to Kidderminster but this could be a good short term solution and with some re timetabling it may be possible without doubling anything.

I doubt that the amount of passengers heading from the south/south west for Kiddy and Stourbridge would justify the expense...

 

[VT 390]

I doubt that the amount of passengers heading from the south/south west for Kiddy and Stourbridge would justify the expense...

There may not be but this may encourage more people to travel by train who currently drive if the service is more convenient especially as currently they have to walk from Moor Street to New Street. Also some services have very long turn around times at Shrub Hill which may fit in a trip to Parkway and back.

 

[jimm]

If just a short section of line from Norton Junction until just before Worcestershire Parkway was doubled could WMR extend one of their Snow Hill line trains to Worcestershire Parkway each hour to provide better connections south for places like Kidderminster and Stourbridge without having to go via Birmingham. I know the long term timetable wants GWR to operate an hourly service to Kidderminster but this could be a good short term solution and with some re timetabling it may be possible without doubling anything.

No one is going to be doing anything like installing extra track (or the signals that would be needed to allow reversals at Worcestershire Parkway even if line capacity was available, which it isn't) unless it is as part of a comprehensive scheme to modernise and improve the whole Worcester area and/or the Cotswold Line

 

[Gagravarr]

There's a few old, locked threads around this topic ([1] [2] [3]), but nothing since 2016, so hopefully it's OK to re-open the topic...

I'm a moderately frequent (North) Cotswolds line user, and at the times/directions of day when there are 2 trains an hour on the Moreton-in-Marsh to Oxford section it's great, at the times when it's only 1ish the waits can be annoying. So, I have a personal interest in this!

As I understand it from earlier threads, the earlier re-doubling of the eastern section didn't go all the way to Oxford for cost / benefit reasons. However, part of that was the issues with the Oxford area signalling, which have now been resolved. Another part is the 3 stations between Charlbury and Oxford, 2 of which are the parliamentary-only halts.

Wolvercote Junction to Hanborough typically takes 5 minutes, 1 minute stopping allowance, then Hanborough to Charlbury in 7 minutes, total 13 minutes. A non-stop Charlbury to Oxford (eg 1P37) is 11 minutes for Charlbury to Wolvercote. A non-stop Moreton to Oxford (eg 1P40) is timed for Charlbury to Wolvercote in 9 minutes. The all-halts seems to do it in 20 minutes.

Personally I'd quite like 2 trains an hour in each direction, and I gather most of the local councils would too, plus the CLPG. You can't quite manage that with a stop at Hanborough, which while a smallish place, has a big catchment by road (even despite Oxford Parkway pinching people), and is growing rapidly with loads of new houses springing up). So, at least some extra 2 track is needed, though not necessarily all that much.


I figure there are four broad options:

1. Re-double Charlbury to just before Hanborough
2. Re-double Wolvecote Junction to Hanborough
3. Re-double the lot (combine #1 and #2)
   
4. Extra platform at Hanborough as small passing loop

Option #1 probably means either closing the halts, or expensively adding 2 more platforms, or making it all bi-directional so you can run wrong-line in the morning to reach the current platforms. Few bridges that might need work, and embankments.

Options #2 and #4 would mean an extra platform at Hanborough. #2 has some bridges and embankments that might need work, I'd guess similar number to #1, while #4 needs signalling and point work instead.


Assuming I've correctly picked up the points from the earlier threads, now that the Oxford area signalling is all done, and with some inflation thrown in, does anyone know the rough ballpark costings?

 

[II]

The North Cotswold Line Taskforce, mentioned several times on that post, were due to report at the end of last year on their suggestions, which will carry quite a lot of weight. I don't know if they've formally released their report yet, but a presentation from a meeting of the Worcestershire Local Enterprise Partnership just over a month ago gives some glimpses about what they are thinking, from pages 38-50, but especially the diagram on page 48. You can view it at https://www.wlep.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/05-Worcestershire-Rail-Strategy-presentation.pdf

In a nutshell, similar to my proposal at the eastern end with a remodelled Wolvercote Junction and double track and new platform at Hanborough to facilitate a 2tph service (at the minimum). The western end sees them looking at redoubling Norton Junction to just before Pershore, with a new platform on top of the one currently under construction at Worcestershire Parkway.

 

[jimm]

The taskforce is holding off on publicising their thinking in full as they want to do more work on various aspects, so a full report is now expected later this year.

 

[II]

Thanks for the update, jimm.

For the first time I can remember hearing it, the LEP presentation seems to hint at a 2tph service between Worcester and Paddington, with the second train coming from Kidderminster, to give that (and Droitwich) an hourly London service. Moreton-In-Marsh and Hanborough are the only common calls between Worcester and Oxford which would of course enable faster Worcester to London journeys (the sub 2-hour mark has long been as aspiration from Shrub Hill). So it'll be interesting to see how that develops.

 

[Doctor Fegg]

Very interesting, and thanks for the link.

So the current proposal appears to be that Charlbury, the busiest Cotswold Line station (300k passengers pa), will lose its direct trains to central Worcester (Foregate Street), Malvern and Hereford; and remain at 1tph while Hanborough gets 4tph. The only possibility of improvement is if the Long Marston–Stratford line is reopened, which given the glacial pace of English rail reopenings, is surely a 15-year horizon at best.

I may have a more nuanced opinion in due course but my initial thoughts can be summarised in two words, one of which is "get" and the other of which begins with F.

 

[VT 390]

https://www.wlep.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/05-Worcestershire-Rail-Strategy-presentation.pdf

Would 4tph at Hanborough actually be used by enough people to make it worth doing, and if so would it not make sense to electrify to Hanborough and extend the Didcot stoppers to Hanborough? or in the short term extend one of these to Moreton-in-Marsh calling at all stations (except Finstock and Combe) this way the stations on the southern part of the route all get 2tph without having the Malvern/Worcester train slow down.
Is there reason why Evesham could not be served by both of the London trains as it is one of the more well used stations and I don't see how Worcester passengers would fill these trains up to make them worth running.

 

[II]

There isn't the demand currently for a 4tph Hanborough to London service (aside from the peaks where it would be useful). Hanborough is very much a developing area though with much housing planned around it and in the Witney area over the next couple of decades. Witney to Oxford by car/bus is already horrendous, so the railway is in a good position to capitalise on that population growth, and a 4tph metro style service (two to Paddington, two to Oxford/Cowley/Didcot) might certainly become very viable indeed.

If the Kidderminster to Paddington service ever launches, I'd be surprised if it didn't end up stopping at Evesham. A 2tph service to Worcester (even if only to Shrub Hill for one of them) would draw more people to the train, and also provide links to Droitwich and Kidderminster. The ruling linespeed through Evesham is only 50mph, so the time penalty for stopping there isn't great.

 

[jimm]

Would 4tph at Hanborough actually be used by enough people to make it worth doing, and if so would it not make sense to electrify to Hanborough and extend the Didcot stoppers to Hanborough? or in the short term extend one of these to Moreton-in-Marsh calling at all stations (except Finstock and Combe) this way the stations on the southern part of the route all get 2tph without having the Malvern/Worcester train slow down.
Is there reason why Evesham could not be served by both of the London trains as it is one of the more well used stations and I don't see how Worcester passengers would fill these trains up to make them worth running.

If the Kidderminster to Paddington service ever launches, I'd be surprised if it didn't end up stopping at Evesham. A 2tph service to Worcester (even if only to Shrub Hill for one of them) would draw more people to the train, and also provide links to Droitwich and Kidderminster. The ruling linespeed through Evesham is only 50mph, so the time penalty for stopping there isn't great.

As II says, there are hundreds of new homes being built in Hanborough, some right next to the station (this site also includes land for more rail passenger parking), never mind many more planned nearby in Witney and Woodstock. Oxfordshire County Council also wants to develop Hanborough as a rail park-and-ride site for people going into central Oxford, as the existing and planned bus park-and-rides all suffer from the same basic problem - the heavy traffic around Oxford in the peaks and the limited/non-existent provision of bus lanes to ease their passage through the queues. In this context, 4tph is a perfectly reasonable aspiration to have.

Whatever the Worcestershire LEP presentation may say about 'quick wins' there are not going to be any of those without plenty of money being spent first.

The existing infrastructure cannot reliably cope with 2tph both ways to Moreton-in-Marsh and back - whenever it is done for a few days in August during the Wilderness Festival near Charlbury, there is almost always a point in the day when the service runs into trouble as the single-line headways are so tight - even a handful of minutes' delay on one train messes it all up.

Re the suggested calling patterns of a 2ph service. This is the result of extensive modelling done on behalf of the taskforce. The idea of an hourly limited-stop service hurtling between Oxford and Worcester and most of the other stations being served by a stopping service failed the tests, which resulted in what is indicated in the slide from the presentation made to Worcestershire LEP. I don't know the detail of how that conclusion was reached, though it is reasonable to assume traffic volumes to/from Worcester and places further west would simply not support a fast service without plenty of added income from other stations on the way to Oxford.

As for Evesham, it should be noted that traffic there has remained stubbornly stuck at much the same level for many years, even when the industry as a whole and other stations on the line have seen strong growth. The lack of ticket barriers at the Worcester stations is generally accepted to pose a serious problem when it comes to ticketless travel. Unless revenue protection do a block or flood a train with inspectors, it is simply not possible to check all passengers have tickets on a short journey with one (and soon to be two) intermediate stops.

The arrival of ticket barriers at Foregate Street may start to make a difference this respect, but this will take time to implement. Should it result in a surge in ticket sales and revenue at Evesham, then the proposed calling patterns could well be revisited - but they are the result of detailed work by consultants, not an off-the-cuff notion. And are the off-peak patterns, with the peak service presumably continuing to reflect the morning and evening 'tidal flows' in some way with different calling patterns, such as more Charlbury stops.

 

[Sprinter107]

The line between Tunnel Junction and Droutwich Spa is already full to capacity at certain times of the day. Even more trains will be running from May 2019 along there. Waiting at Droitwich Spa and Tunnel Junction is common. How are these GWR trains to Kidderminster going to slotted in without causing extra delays. The timekeeping on the North Cotswold Line leaves a lot to be desired at the best of times.

 

[jimm]

The line between Tunnel Junction and Droutwich Spa is already full to capacity at certain times of the day. Even more trains will be running from May 2019 along there. Waiting at Droitwich Spa and Tunnel Junction is common. How are these GWR trains to Kidderminster going to slotted in without causing extra delays. The timekeeping on the North Cotswold Line leaves a lot to be desired at the best of times.

Extra services on the Cotswold Line will need lots of extra infrastructure and GWR services to and from Kidderminster will also require better infrastructure. The taskforce is well aware of the limitations of the current arrangements at Worcester and in much of the rest of the county and tackling those problems is a key element of the proposals they are working on.

Have you actually been paying attention to timekeeping on the Cotswold Line recently? It is light years ahead of the end of 2017 and first few months of last year and better overall than it has been for a very long time.

This graph shows the punctuality and reliability of services on the Cotswold Line and London-Cheltneham services since the start of 2016. I think it speaks for itself

http://trains.im/ppmhistorical/GW/37/monthly

 

[option]

If the Kidderminster to Paddington service ever launches, I'd be surprised if it didn't end up stopping at Evesham. A 2tph service to Worcester (even if only to Shrub Hill for one of them) would draw more people to the train, and also provide links to Droitwich and Kidderminster. The ruling linespeed through Evesham is only 50mph, so the time penalty for stopping there isn't great.

Why Kidderminster?
If your going past Worcester, why not go to Stourbridge, where there is a greater population & more connecting services? Also plans for Metro extension from Dudley etc.
Yes it overlaps with the Chiltern service from Kidderminster, but they are only running a few services in the morning.

 

[jimm]

Why Kidderminster?
If your going past Worcester, why not go to Stourbridge, where there is a greater population & more connecting services? Also plans for Metro extension from Dudley etc.
Yes it overlaps with the Chiltern service from Kidderminster, but they are only running a few services in the morning.

There's the key issue of getting the trains back to Worcester in time to take up their paths along the Cotswold Line to Oxford and the operational one of the number of trains already at Stourbridge Junction, with all the terminating and starting services there. I wouldn't want to be trying to achieve reliable turnaround times in the middle of all that lot, for what would surely be pretty limited numbers of passengers.