West Coast Franchise speculation

[The Planner]

There's also nothing in NR's CP6 plan for this, and by 2024 (CP7) it will be too late to get upgrades done in time for the start of HS2 services.

Doesn't need to be, it would be third party cash (ie: HS2, technically DfT) so if they suddenly say "we want to do this, here is the cash", I doubt we would say no.

 

[SansHache]

One of the challenges for the WCP franchise will be maintaining capacity on the route once the classic-compatible HS2 trains enter service. HS2 is unlikely to extend beyond Crewe until well into the 2030's. The new trains will be non-tilt and are planned to be 200m long so will need to find paths to Manchester, Liverpool, Preston and Glasgow on the existing network with longer running times than Pendolinos. Journey times will suffer but I see the major problem being maintaining capacity as the 265m long Class 390s will be replaced by 200m long HS2 trains.
The HS2 trains can run in multiple but there are no stations on the classic routes that can accommodate 400m long trains. Finding extra paths to run more high speed trains per hour on the classic routes will be difficult. The situation is resolved at Manchester once HS2 phase 2 opens but the completion of phase 2 will not help with capacity on the northern sections of the main WCML route.

 

[td97]

otherwise it's realignment

Which is what is being looked into. Will also benefit TPE Scottish services.

 

[Class 170101]

Doesn't need to be, it would be third party cash (ie: HS2, technically DfT) so if they suddenly say "we want to do this, here is the cash", I doubt we would say no.

That would still need to be before 2024 though. Assuming an opening of Phase 1 in 2026 (and thats a big assumption given the Crossrail farce I would suggest) you are looking at possessions being needed north of Lichfield to Glasgow. Depending upon how long the work needs you could be looking at work starting around 2022/23 to enable completion for 2026.

So NR would need to propose outline possessions around 2021 or so. It won't just affect Virgin Trains but Cross Country, Northern, TPE, Scotrail and LM plus freight and other operators on the WCML but also the ECML where this route is required to be open between London and Scotland thus potentially limiting scope of possessions there too.

 

[The Planner]

So basically the day job. HS2 already work with the engineering access team and plenty of HS2 stuff is in the 2019 EAS as well as 2020, with 2021 starting to be developed.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Any WCML upgrade will also have to compete with other large capital projects such as the TP upgrade (and the eastern leg of HS2).
I just don't see DfT having shed-loads of cash for the northern WCML, or being willing to let NR spend it, when the more urgent "NPR" is still totally unresolved.
The WCP bid documents must make interesting reading, with the bidders having to speculate on all the potential changes and pick a profitable way through them.

 

[AndrewE]

Any WCML upgrade will also have to compete with other large capital projects such as the TP upgrade (and the eastern leg of HS2).
I just don't see DfT having shed-loads of cash for the northern WCML, or being willing to let NR spend it, when the more urgent "NPR" is still totally unresolved.
The WCP bid documents must make interesting reading, with the bidders having to speculate on all the potential changes and pick a profitable way through them.

What an absolute waste of effort and money. There are so many variables and unknowables that it can't be anything but a mad lottery with almost no chance that the "best" bid (even if such a thing existed) would win and locking us in to a single path - which experience might rapidly show to be totally misconceived.
It's our national infrastructure, not an arcade game or a casino to be entered only by people with money to throw away (or a pathological addiction.)

 

[mmh]

With any luck this is all hypothetical and HS2 will be shelved before it reaches the point of no return.

As LNW-GW Joint says, there's going to be no appetite for this announcement:

"Oh, by the way, we also now need to spend billions on the old route too. Yes, that one we just spent billions on ten years ago."

 

[AndrewE]

With any luck this is all hypothetical and HS2 will be shelved before it reaches the point of no return.

As LNW-GW Joint says, there's going to be no appetite for this announcement:

"Oh, by the way, we also now need to spend billions on the old route too. Yes, that one we just spent billions on ten years ago."

But unfortunately the re-franchising pantomime won't be abandoned, even though it will damage the unsuccessful bidders, put the winner in a straitjacket (or guarantee them a publicly-funded bonanza when the first diversion from their plan is forced on the government) and looks as though it is already forcing actions that will jeopardise service quality in the near future.

 

[Class 170101]

So basically the day job. HS2 already work with the engineering access team and plenty of HS2 stuff is in the 2019 EAS as well as 2020, with 2021 starting to be developed.

That I understand but how can NR plan for resources / machines / staff etc to made available for something that isn't agreed yet such that a particular piece of kit is being used for something else that is already agreed as part of CP6 and isn't available for enhancements. Clashes between blocks due to the blocks themselves or kit / resources / staff already allocated?

 

[The Planner]

Pretty much first come first served, and it is all nationally de-conflicted anyway from the blocks down to resources needed. If two items need the same bit of kit and it can't be sorted out amicably then someone at the top makes the decision and something moves.

 

[tasky]

This maybe something that happens anyway in the future when/if HS2 arrives. There maybe more stretches of line that could be 125 mph non-tilt (non-EPS) with some work. I bet Network Rail would be glad to get rid of tilt and has been said before, I don't think any more tilting trains will be built for the UK.

If @Andy25 is correct that staff cutbacks at Alstom are down to cost cutting for the WCP due to the expense of Class 390 maintenance then maybe a non-tilt future downgraded semi-fast West Coast service will suite all involved, except passengers but who really cares about them?

Is there any chance of the new operator using a variant of the New Pendolino (as used by SBB) for the classic compatible trains? They have tilt and can do 280km/h - or is that too slow for the HS section of the line? No chance of suitable tilting rolling stock becoming available with a higher top speed?

 

[pt_mad]

Any WCML upgrade will also have to compete with other large capital projects such as the TP upgrade (and the eastern leg of HS2).
I just don't see DfT having shed-loads of cash for the northern WCML, or being willing to let NR spend it, when the more urgent "NPR" is still totally unresolved.
The WCP bid documents must make interesting reading, with the bidders having to speculate on all the potential changes and pick a profitable way through them.

For track realignment fair enough you'd be talking a huge amount of investment. But for looking at clearing any existing straight sections for 125mph presumably the cost wouldnt be anything like as high. Could be worth at least looking at that, which I presume is what is being looked at as part of this.

One thought though. D
Have they at all considered a build of tilt capable classic comparable high speed stock for HS2 operation? Surely that would be cheaper than track realignment and would mean full speed non tilt to Crewe (or Armitage) and EPS tilt mode from there?

With any luck this is all hypothetical and HS2 will be shelved before it reaches the point of no return.

As LNW-GW Joint says, there's going to be no appetite for this announcement:

"Oh, by the way, we also now need to spend billions on the old route too. Yes, that one we just spent billions on ten years ago."

I think it's passed the point of no return. According to Panorama, a lot of the compulsory for land purchases have been done, including a major part of Euston. The bulldozers are already outside Euston, and Birmingham Curzon Street has now been closed off and dug up.

 

[ainsworth74]

Let's not get into whether or not we should be building HS2 and whether or not it will be cancelled. At the present moment it is going ahead and indeed shovels are in the ground building it! Anyone wishing to discuss those aspects of HS2 is welcome to do so either in an existing thread or in a new one.

Many thanks,
ainsworth74

 

[pt_mad]

Reading between the lines, maybe this short term extension could be to allow the independent rail review to run its course before awarding any major franchises given the recent climate.

Similar thing has happened with XC hasn't it.

 

[The Ham]

With any luck this is all hypothetical and HS2 will be shelved before it reaches the point of no return.

As LNW-GW Joint says, there's going to be no appetite for this announcement:

"Oh, by the way, we also now need to spend billions on the old route too. Yes, that one we just spent billions on ten years ago."

It would take someone who was VERY brave to cancel HS2 now, the reasons being:
- politically who's going to want to be the person that says "I know your trains are full and there was a project to fix that but we canceled it"
- even if there was a sensible alternative it would require years of work before or was possible to start works
- even if there were a cheaper alternative the abortive costs of cancellation of HS2 would need to be added to this, probably making it better to keep going

Anyone interested in discussing alternatives including how 51m's list of suggested spend is working out can do so in this thread:

https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/hs2-alternatives-based-on-51ms-suggestions.175943/

 

[The Ham]

Let's not get into whether or not we should be building HS2 and whether or not it will be cancelled. At the present moment it is going ahead and indeed shovels are in the ground building it! Anyone wishing to discuss those aspects of HS2 is welcome to do so either in an existing thread or in a new one.

Many thanks,
ainsworth74

Sorry, only noticed your post after posting my post above. However I did suggest an alternative thread to discuss matters further.

 

[ainsworth74]

Sorry, only noticed your post after posting my post above. However I did suggest an alternative thread to discuss matters further.

No worries

 

[driver_m]

Some sections of line on the WCML should very easily able to be made 125 PS. The trouble would be that it would resemble the North Wales mainline as was with loads of ups and downs, so would the energy expended in braking and acceleration be a false economy as well? Sections like Linslade Tunnel/Leighton Buzzard would need a radical rethink to raise speed to an acceptable level for one.

Also, regarding the expense of tilt. Could the style of tilt be made cheaper? Such as having tilt that isn't regulated by TASS but rather the style of system the APT used which I believe was permanently in use unless physically failed?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Is there any chance of the new operator using a variant of the New Pendolino (as used by SBB) for the classic compatible trains? They have tilt and can do 280km/h - or is that too slow for the HS section of the line? No chance of suitable tilting rolling stock becoming available with a higher top speed?

Manufacturers (Alstom I think) have said they can get 300km/h out of a tilting design.
But HS2 Ltd seem set against it, and have set the spec at 360km/h which rules out tilt.
On the other hand they seem to be exploring lower cost HS2 options which might help close the gap.
I think the biggest user of tilting stock on high speed lines today is Renfe, with CAF/Talgo passive tilt designs at 250km/h.

For track realignment fair enough you'd be talking a huge amount of investment. But for looking at clearing any existing straight sections for 125mph presumably the cost wouldnt be anything like as high. Could be worth at least looking at that, which I presume is what is being looked at as part of this.
One thought though. Have they at all considered a build of tilt capable classic comparable high speed stock for HS2 operation? Surely that would be cheaper than track realignment and would mean full speed non tilt to Crewe (or Armitage) and EPS tilt mode from there?

Ruled out early on I believe (before the decision was made to order only classic-compatible stock).

Reading between the lines, maybe this short term extension could be to allow the independent rail review to run its course before awarding any major franchises given the recent climate. Similar thing has happened with XC hasn't it.

The last announcement deferring XC renewal also said the WCP competition (and SE/EMT) would proceed as planned, though they seem to be running late as DfT is preoccupied with Brexit.
It would be doubly embarrassing to pull it now, with the bids in (and with major EU railways involved).

 

[tasky]

Manufacturers (Alstom I think) have said they can get 300km/h out of a tilting design.
But HS2 Ltd seem set against it, and have set the spec at 360km/h which rules out tilt.
On the other hand they seem to be exploring lower cost HS2 options which might help close the gap.

Presumably the 360km/h is so that there aren't speed differentials on HS2 that would restrict capacity? Kind of fair enough given the pressures on slots already. Shame Alstom can't squeeze 60kph extra out of tilt

 

[edwin_m]

Have they at all considered a build of tilt capable classic comparable high speed stock for HS2 operation? Surely that would be cheaper than track realignment and would mean full speed non tilt to Crewe (or Armitage) and EPS tilt mode from there?

Only a small proportion of the HS2 fleet will be doing Glasgow/Edinburgh workings and other places don't benefit, so you'd either be adding a lot of cost and weight for relatively infrequent use or creating a micro-fleet.

Some sections of line on the WCML should very easily able to be made 125 PS. The trouble would be that it would resemble the North Wales mainline as was with loads of ups and downs, so would the energy expended in braking and acceleration be a false economy as well? Sections like Linslade Tunnel/Leighton Buzzard would need a radical rethink to raise speed to an acceptable level for one.

Also, regarding the expense of tilt. Could the style of tilt be made cheaper? Such as having tilt that isn't regulated by TASS but rather the style of system the APT used which I believe was permanently in use unless physically failed?

The focus likely to be on the northern part of the route where classic compatibles will be operating long term and Pendolino's won't. There are for example longish straight sections south and north of Preston and around Lockerbie.

The type of balise used is likely to be a drop in the ocean of the cost of tilting. In any case TASS uses standard ERTMS equipment so could be provided as part of an ERTMS system that will eventually be rolled out onto all the main lines.

 

[Bletchleyite]

If @Andy25 is correct that staff cutbacks at Alstom are down to cost cutting for the WCP due to the expense of Class 390 maintenance then maybe a non-tilt future downgraded semi-fast West Coast service will suite all involved, except passengers but who really cares about them?

I would see that as the future of the non-HS2 WCML, and really (as a passenger) don't see a problem with it. The genuinely fast services will be on HS2, the legacy WCML will be, like the German legacy routes, or the Swiss routes bypassed by the NBS lines[1], about capacity and connectivity, and Pendolinos may indeed not be the best stock for that. Quite possibly something like a 110mph OHLE Class 444 or even 350 would be better.

[1] The NBS (Neubaustrecke = new build lines) aren't true high speed, but conventional stock, mostly LHCS, running at about 225km/h. But the effect is basically the same, and the concept - providing capacity and higher speed "in parallel" to an existing line - is basically the same.

 

[Meerkat]

The cities bypassed by HS2 might have a bit of an issue with the trains they are left with being slowed down.....

 

[Bletchleyite]

The cities bypassed by HS2 might have a bit of an issue with the trains they are left with being slowed down.....

As an inhabitant of Milton Keynes (the largest place to be bypassed by the first phase of HS2) I would rather have a larger number of slower services than a smaller number of faster ones. Indeed, one of the biggest benefits of HS2 is increased services at both Milton Keynes Central and Watford Junction - I would expect all legacy WCML services to stop at the former and far more than at present at the latter.

 

[Meerkat]

Milton Keynes is suburbia, not a city out in the regions, like Coventry or Stoke.

 

[Carlisle]

Only a small proportion of the HS2 fleet will be doing Glasgow/Edinburgh workings and other places don't benefit, so you'd either be adding a lot of cost and weight for relatively infrequent use or creating a micro-fleet.

Still, travelling a further 230- 250 miles north of HS2 at the very least 15mph slower than current stock does isn’t just a minor detail that’s easily dismissed either, especially when considering what the overall costs of the whole project are ultimately likely to be .

 

[mmh]

I would see that as the future of the non-HS2 WCML, and really (as a passenger) don't see a problem with it.

Well of course you wouldn't, you live in Milton Keynes and think HS2 is to get rid of pesky long distance trains getting in the way.

The genuinely fast services will be on HS2, the legacy WCML will be, like the German legacy routes, or the Swiss routes bypassed by the NBS lines[1], about capacity and connectivity, and Pendolinos may indeed not be the best stock for that. Quite possibly something like a 110mph OHLE Class 444 or even 350 would be better.

[1] The NBS (Neubaustrecke = new build lines) aren't true high speed, but conventional stock, mostly LHCS, running at about 225km/h. But the effect is basically the same, and the concept - providing capacity and higher speed "in parallel" to an existing line - is basically the same.

Ah, Germany and Switzerland. Everybody's surprised.

 

[edwin_m]

Still, travelling a further 230- 250 miles north of HS2 at the very least 15mph slower than current stock does isn’t just a minor detail that’s easily dismissed either, especially when considering what the overall costs of the whole project are ultimately likely to be .

The 110mph 350s aren't actually that much slower than the Pendolinos north of Preston, considering they make more stops. Substitute a higher-performance 125mph unit and selective increases to non-EPS speeds and I think the difference will be in the single digits of minutes between Preston and Scotland.

 

[whhistle]

Finding extra paths to run more high speed trains per hour on the classic routes will be difficult.

Who says there needs to be extra paths?
Perhaps one of the current paths will be culled. Were there not plans to do this with one of the Birmingham services?