Cross Country's capacity issues: how could they be solved?

[greyman42]

Also there's an Intercity Service to from Birmingham to Liverpol which looked to be stopping at Stafford, Crewe, Runcorn and Liverpool only. As opposed to the many stops today.

Did longer distance services through Birmingham N.S. have less stops in the whole in those days?

Yes. As you say, they were run as Intercity services as opposed to a more 'local' service which operates today. The service operated between Liverpool and Birmingham and terminated at Birmingham. There was a similar set up for Manchester - Birmingham.

 

[Railperf]

I would be inclined to look at the 22X fleet in general and work out whether cascaded HST's including EMT HST's could be better served with XC - and then cascade XC 22X to EMT. I think HST's are better served on XC because the route, speed limits and timings do not demand the higher performance of 22X.
And potentially - subject to cost - EMT could utilise the tilt facility of the 221's to improve journey times to Sheffield. Longer term - i think XC would be better served by a fleet of 802's or a similar bi-mode product. They would perform well enough from Aberdeen to Edinburgh in diesel mode. Can utilise the wires between Edinburgh and York, back to diesel as far as Derby. Derby to Birmingham would require a bi-mode that performs better than an 802 to make best use of the 125mph sections. Birmingham southbound is mainly 90 to 100mph, and so even an 802 would suffice, but again i would think something more powerful on diesel mode would be preferable.

 

[The Planner]

The chances are zero: There's nothing about replacing Voyagers stated in the Invitation to Tender for the West Coast Partnership franchise, which is the document that the bidders must specify their bids against. Rolling stock policy for "classic" WCML services will be specified by the winning bidder.

Like you say, there may not be anything in the ITT but as Ive said elsewhere I would bet serious cash on all the bidders putting bi-modes in their bids.

 

[Metal_gee_man]

We obviously know that Hitachi, CAF & Stadler can produce new Bi-Mode trains with a minimum of 110mph, can any of the others compete and have capacity to produce a product at short notice without a 3 year lead time when the franchise is re-let in late 2019, early 2020? Bombardier, Siemens & Alstrom what do they have available, do they have many large orders, could they fit in a fairly small XC order in?

Personally I think the best built products, and the most passenger friendly ( maybe with more doors) will be the Stadler Flirts (class 755) level platform access is a now becoming an item we should all expect, and if they can supposedly keep to the GA timetables they could easily keep to a XC timetable

 

[krus_aragon]

Like you say, there may not be anything in the ITT but as Ive said elsewhere I would bet serious cash on all the bidders putting bi-modes in their bids.

As you're a man in the know on such matters, what scope is there in the existing timetable for running non-tilt bi-modes along the WCML (South)?

 

[pt_mad]

Yes. As you say, they were run as Intercity services as opposed to a more 'local' service which operates today. The service operated between Liverpool and Birmingham and terminated at Birmingham. There was a similar set up for Manchester - Birmingham.

For nostalgia fans, the footage (Video125, Cross City) also shows a whole panel of the main Birmingham New Street departure board dedicated to the Intercity Shuttle (The old name for the Birmingham to Euston service). There's a large Intercity Shuttle logo, then it says '''next departure to London Euston is (flip up time) from platform (flip up number)".

 

[43096]

We obviously know that Hitachi, CAF & Stadler can produce new Bi-Mode trains with a minimum of 110mph, can any of the others compete and have capacity to produce a product at short notice without a 3 year lead time when the franchise is re-let in late 2019, early 2020? Bombardier, Siemens & Alstrom what do they have available, do they have many large orders, could they fit in a fairly small XC order in?

Small order = high cost per vehicle.

Should also point out that the XC franchise is not being re-let next year (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/cross-country-rail-franchise-2018-prospectus) but is expected to have another Direct Award, with some suggestions that this could be for up to 4 or 5 years. Given that Direct Awards have generally been a case of "do nothing" I'd think the best bet for capacity enhancement on XC would be getting hold of off-lease HSTs (modified with sliding doors etc.) and possibly Turbostars in 2021 or so when they come off West midlands services.

 

[30907]

As you're a man in the know on such matters, what scope is there in the existing timetable for running non-tilt bi-modes along the WCML (South)?

Same as any other non-tilt train - basically minimal south of Roade, as the LNR 350s at 110mph take pretty much all the spare paths.
Of course, you could presumably design a non-tilt train that had sufficient oomph to keep to Voyager timings...

Going back to XC, though, the only immediate tweak I can see would be to reduce the number of units operating North of York. I would terminate the services via Leeds at either Leeds or York, and extend the Doncaster route services to Scotland. This would depend on TPE covering Leeds-Edinburgh though.
That would only save a couple of sets, though, and providing more capacity over the core would require attaching/detaching en route, which no-one seems to want to do any more (perhaps underdrsndably).

 

[pt_mad]

Small order = high cost per vehicle.

Should also point out that the XC franchise is not being re-let next year (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/cross-country-rail-franchise-2018-prospectus) but is expected to have another Direct Award, with some suggestions that this could be for up to 4 or 5 years. Given that Direct Awards have generally been a case of "do nothing" I'd think the best bet for capacity enhancement on XC would be getting hold of off-lease HSTs (modified with sliding doors etc.) and possibly Turbostars in 2021 or so when they come off West midlands services.

Could class 185s be possible candidate stock for xc? What about running a 185 service through the core at 100mph timings to free up some room on Voyagers?

 

[The Ham]

Could class 185s be possible candidate stock for xc? What about running a 185 service through the core at 100mph timings to free up some room on Voyagers?

I've wondered the same myself and thought that the services which run to Paignton could be a good candidate for being run by 185's.

A pair would have circa 340 seats, so would be higher than any unit which currently runs the service and getting on for nearly double a 4 coach voyager, so it wouldn't matter if most people were traveling in one of the units (which is often cited as a reason why two non corridor connected units shouldn't run as pairs in busy services). As if there were 250 passengers (so full and standing on a 220) you would need about 40% to travel in one unit for everyone to get a standard class seat.

 

[tbtc]

Could class 185s be possible candidate stock for xc? What about running a 185 service through the core at 100mph timings to free up some room on Voyagers?

Water under the bridge now, but I do sometimes wonder whether XC would have been better as a 100mph railway - too late now I appreciate but IMHO the benefits of brief sections of 125mph running are outweighed by the price that you pay for that (the "crumple zones" that take a chunk out of capacity, the requirement for specialist stock).

BR ran XC with 90mph 158s and 95mph 47s (plus 100-110mph 86s amongst other things), so it wouldn't have been a downgrading on what went before.

But it would have meant that discussions such as now would mean we could suggest 168/170/175/185s, rather than being restricted to "hoping EMR won't keep the 222s" or "get some new build bi-modes in".

Too late now, and probably too much work to start tinkering now though.

(no, those trains aren't as "InterCity" as the main ECML/ WCML/ GWML franchises, but if you've grown up on a diet of Mk2s then it's not like you had the same InterCity trains)

 

[The Planner]

As you're a man in the know on such matters, what scope is there in the existing timetable for running non-tilt bi-modes along the WCML (South)?

As it stands? depends on what the performance is like, if you can get them to accelerate like lunatics there could be scope with some tweaking. It also depends on whether there will be a minor recast prior to 2026 (again, something I would bet on)

 

[krus_aragon]

As it stands? depends on what the performance is like, if you can get them to accelerate like lunatics there could be scope with some tweaking. It also depends on whether there will be a minor recast prior to 2026 (again, something I would bet on)

Thanks. My only benchmark was the Pretendolino, which I recall barely kept ahead of other traffic on its way to Birmingham on a Friday evening.

 

[30907]

Water under the bridge now, but I do sometimes wonder whether XC would have been better as a 100mph railway - too late now I appreciate but IMHO the benefits of brief sections of 125mph running are outweighed by the price that you pay for that (the "crumple zones" that take a chunk out of capacity, the requirement for specialist stock).

BR ran XC with 90mph 158s and 95mph 47s (plus 100-110mph 86s amongst other things), so it wouldn't have been a downgrading on what went before

Not to mention 125mph HSTs.

The 125 capability is pretty much essential to allow XC to use the Mains between Reading and Didcot and the Fasts north of York, and I think there's some 110 track elsewhere.
I do idly wonder whether 185s might find a niche on the present Cardiff and perhaps Stansted routes, releasing Turbostars to work Liverpool-Norwich (as they used to, IIRC) in place of 158s. However, that belongs on another thread...

 

[Ken H]

stop running voyagers under the wires to manc. Have a brum manc service using 110mph 350's that trans pennine are dumping. That should release a few voyagers for the rest of the network for running 8 car trains.
how many people stay on XC services at brum anyway? Does anyone know?

 

[The Planner]

Where are those 350s going to live and be maintained?

 

[swt_passenger]

stop running voyagers under the wires to manc. Have a brum manc service using 110mph 350's that trans pennine are dumping. That should release a few voyagers for the rest of the network for running 8 car trains.
how many people stay on XC services at brum anyway? Does anyone know?

They aren’t being “dumped” by TPE, they are known to be going to LNR (WCML).

 

[Ken H]

Where are those 350s going to live and be maintained?

get TPE to do it in Manc

 

[pt_mad]

I've wondered the same myself and thought that the services which run to Paignton could be a good candidate for being run by 185's.

A pair would have circa 340 seats, so would be higher than any unit which currently runs the service and getting on for nearly double a 4 coach voyager, so it wouldn't matter if most people were traveling in one of the units (which is often cited as a reason why two non corridor connected units shouldn't run as pairs in busy services). As if there were 250 passengers (so full and standing on a 220) you would need about 40% to travel in one unit for everyone to get a standard class seat.

What about running pairs of class 185s on a new service in the core only between Bristol and Sheffield or Derby? Avoiding the areas where 125mph is essential to run?

 

[SoccerHQ]

Surprised people think it's just a problem around Brum.

Went down to Winchester last week and not for the first time coming back the Oxford-Banbury stretch was incredibly crowded around 5pm (it was a 4 carriage service although 5 wouldn't have solved much with people standing in the aisles). Checked when I got back and was amazed there was only one stopper service between those two places an hour so XC every half hour has tot take the strain.

Leeds to Sheffield at rush hour is also a nightmare if a 7 car train dosen't turn up, again due to inadequate other services that take over an hour to serve the two cities (Castleford). Sheffield to Chesterfield can get pretty packed aswell although that is adequately served by other services.

So of course more carraiges needed but XC also victim of lack of connectivity in many parts of the UK between places.

 

[swt_passenger]

So when is XC franchise up for re-negotiation?
Because I can't believe that without a new franchise agreement Arriva have absolutely no interest or financial incentive to invest in new rolling stock...

It was supposed to be happening about now but has been deferred by DfT. Arriva are expected to get an extension for another few years.

As mentioned in a summary in the parallel “XC remapping thread” earlier today, the likelihood of any major change is probably minimal: https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/future-remapping-to-crosscountry.170264/#post-3761990

There’s probably been very similar XC speculation threads to this about once a month so far this year, I can’t believe how often it all gets repeated...

 

[krus_aragon]

The fact that XC was deferred, but the contemporary EMT franchise competition wasn't, could indicate that the DfT intend to select an EMT bidder who wants to replace the 222s, such that they'll be available for the resumed XC bidding.

 

[43096]

The fact that XC was deferred, but the contemporary EMT franchise competition wasn't, could indicate that the DfT intend to select an EMT bidder who wants to replace the 222s, such that they'll be available for the resumed XC bidding.

I think you are giving DfT far too much credit for intelligence!

 

[The Ham]

I think you are giving DfT far too much credit for intelligence!

True, but it does solve the problem of both being relet with a new fleet of trains (which would be a nice problem to have).

Having said that (assuming total cost per coach is the same) it is likely that you could provide more seats over fewer units by getting a fleet of 5 & 7 coach units than using the current 22x's at XC and EMT.

Now you could get the same result by scraping some end coaches, however new build units tend to have lower maintenance costs could have lower track access charges and by needing to run fewer units in pairs you could also have a lower staffing cost. All of which is why I wouldn't be surprised if even with the delay XC ends up with new units.

 

[yorksrob]

Surprised people think it's just a problem around Brum.

Went down to Winchester last week and not for the first time coming back the Oxford-Banbury stretch was incredibly crowded around 5pm (it was a 4 carriage service although 5 wouldn't have solved much with people standing in the aisles). Checked when I got back and was amazed there was only one stopper service between those two places an hour so XC every half hour has tot take the strain.

Leeds to Sheffield at rush hour is also a nightmare if a 7 car train dosen't turn up, again due to inadequate other services that take over an hour to serve the two cities (Castleford). Sheffield to Chesterfield can get pretty packed aswell although that is adequately served by other services.

So of course more carraiges needed but XC also victim of lack of connectivity in many parts of the UK between places.

I remember coming back between Birmingham and Reading on Sunday evenings in around 2001. Even then those trains were always hideously overcrowded.

 

[SoccerHQ]

Thinking to Brum-Wolves the 57 past hour one to Manchester is usually more of a problem as there's nothing to Wolverhampton from New Street for 20 minutes as the stopper goes out at 38 past the hour. Guess people can't help themselves if they can't have the luxury of a train every 10 minutes between the two so they all pile on the 57 past even though there are express services at 01, 05, 15 and 25 past (don't think I've missed any out).

If you're not in a rush or going to Stoke/Manchester then better information should be provided at station as the Liverpool service is usually less crowded and more comfortable a journey.

Ideally of course Wolverhampton to Coventry would be all 4 track but that's a total pie in the sky suggestion.....

 

[SoccerHQ]

Bristol - Birmingham is also overcrowded if 4 cars are used. Also trains from Bristol to Exeter and Plymouth on evenings and weekends.

For that quite a few people get off at Bristol Parkway (odd one for me) and then 3/4 of the train empties at Cheltenham (not a surprise). Probably shows the inadequate local services between Cheltenham and Bristol that goes at a snails pace if anything.

 

[SoccerHQ]

The stopper would probably have sufficient capacity as 2 coaches during the middle of the day (11:18-13:18 from Leicester and 10:52-13:52 from New Street) and very late evening (after 9pm) but 2 coaches is far from sufficient during peak and on the first and last off peak trains. The 15:52 and 16:52 ex New Street are both backed up by an additional stopper at 16:09 and 17:09 and the 17:18 from Leicester can have people standing despite being 5 coaches. The level of demand is also probably reduced from Narborough by current ticketing restrictions that give less than 4 hours in Birmingham on an off peak ticket if wanting to be home before 19:30.

Today I visited a friend in Peterborough and came back in rush hour. Hit Leicester at 6pm, 3 car and stopping at every feasible station between Leicester and Nuneaton. People were standing in the aisles up to Hinckley.

Again lack of stopping service, Hinckley served by just one train an hour is poor considering it's a commuting place.

 

[absolutelymilk]

Where are those 350s going to live and be maintained?

Why can't WMR maintain them? At least until the 730s come in, when they (presumably?) will need the depot space.

 

[Kite159]

Surprised people think it's just a problem around Brum.

Went down to Winchester last week and not for the first time coming back the Oxford-Banbury stretch was incredibly crowded around 5pm (it was a 4 carriage service although 5 wouldn't have solved much with people standing in the aisles). Checked when I got back and was amazed there was only one stopper service between those two places an hour so XC every half hour has tot take the strain.

Leeds to Sheffield at rush hour is also a nightmare if a 7 car train dosen't turn up, again due to inadequate other services that take over an hour to serve the two cities (Castleford). Sheffield to Chesterfield can get pretty packed aswell although that is adequately served by other services.

So of course more carraiges needed but XC also victim of lack of connectivity in many parts of the UK between places.

The GWR Oxford - Banbury stopper is only 2 hourly, and doesn't run on Sundays outside the summer months (and even then it's only 3/4 trains each way a day)