It is not a matter of a good versus evil in the DfT’s eyes - they simply want the best railway for the best price for the customers. The Northern franchise is the best ever since privatistion in terms of investment, but there is a modernisation requirement on Northern on how some trains are operated too.
Some guards argue that the trains are too unsafe to move out of cabs when it is dark or late at night for their own personal safety. It’s one reason sometimes given (another being safety is the only priority) for not checking tickets or doing much to help customers when it’s less appealing, even though that is when guards could really prove their worth. The RMT are well known for threatening industrial action as a response to management of various TOCs attempting to improve guard standards. It’s presumably another appealing reason for the DfT insuring TOCs against losses from any industrial action.
As trains get longer or formed up of sets without corridors already, the passengers’ chances against a pervading crimewave are as bad now as they would be without guards sat in the back cab looking out of the window and refusing to check tickets after sunset. Station staffing and CCTV would be a much better use of money if the expenditure on guards was being justified for passenger security, as shown by the crime levels on DOO services.
What worries me about the whole scenario, is the potential perceived threat of de-skilling across a wide number of staff.
The government was mentioned as wanting the best railway for the best price, i.e. value, and that's understandable in many ways. But at the same time it's this government who talk about skilling up our population for skilled jobs. If Brexit goes through there is talk of more of a high skills based migration system. So people are going to need to be able to compete with their skills.
If we put ourselves in the mindset of a guard at one of these franchises where their grade or skillset may be threatened, would you in today's climate really want to consent voluntarily to being (what many perceive as) downgraded to an OBS?
Watching news and politics there's a lot of politicians and business people saying skilled jobs, skilled work, people having the skills they need to prosper etc etc etc. Who'd want to give up their safety critical skills and accreditation in this climate? At least without a huge resistance?
Some will argue that they will keep their wage, until at least middle of next decade. Fine. But will they keep their skillset? And it's not just about job credit within the railway. If these people decide to compete for jobs elsewhere in other industries, I'm sure safety critical skills where they are in charge of the train will stand them in better stead than non safety customer service skills alone.
Guards probably consider themselves skilled workers as things stand, given the time it takes to train up as one. And other industries would probably view them as skilled workers should they apply for jobs. Strathclyde style ticket checkers, customer hosts etc I'm not sure would be seen in the same way in the wider competition for jobs as someone in charge of the train and it's safety would be seen.