First East Coast (new Open Access Operator) to be standard class only?!

[londiscape]

So once a week for you and if we take you as a bench mark as one out of 200k for a once a week return trip your numbers fall

No fair enough, I was going the other way - based in London, going to Scunthorpe for work, so not part of the 200k. I was suggesting out of the population of the three North Lincs towns, a substantial London bound flow could be generated.

After all, the population of Corby doesn't go much above 100k and yet has a direct London service.

 

[takno]

No fair enough, I was going the other way - based in London, going to Scunthorpe for work, so not part of the 200k. I was suggesting out of the population of the three North Lincs towns, a substantial London bound flow could be generated.

After all, the population of Corby doesn't go much above 100k and yet has a direct London service.

It probably wouldn't have one if it had to compete for paths with Edinburgh trains

 

[jagardner1984]

Personally I think this service could do very well, and is more of a raid on the coach market and the air market than other train operators.

I’m surprised there hasn’t been talk of extending a service or two to Glasgow via Carstairs, as I think at these prices, a 5 hour service would pick up a lot of custom there also.

 

[NotATrainspott]

Personally I think this service could do very well, and is more of a raid on the coach market and the air market than other train operators.

I’m surprised there hasn’t been talk of extending a service or two to Glasgow via Carstairs, as I think at these prices, a 5 hour service would pick up a lot of custom there also.

The train would be mostly empty going west, since your passengers would just use normal ScotRail services to get to/from Edinburgh. It'd be no slower, and it means not having extra complication. As I understand it, a big chunk of the case for First East Coast running like a low-cost airline is that simplicity saves a lot of money. There'd be no need to worry about connections or revenue sharing, and having only one simple route minimises the number of trains required. That hour to Glasgow means an extra two hours minimum on a diagram - probably more like three once you take into account cross-Edinburgh pathing and turnaround time at Glasgow. In that same three hours you could have waited, turned around and reached York.

First is counting on that air/coach competition to get this service approved, since it would otherwise be purely abstractive on ICEC revenues. That is, Hull Trains or Grand Central can exist because they exist to provide connections that wouldn't otherwise exist, whereas this First operation is a pure duplicate of the main ECML operator. The risk involved in this operation shouldn't be particularly great, since the handful of trains required wouldn't have difficulty finding a home in the ICEC operator anyway (e.g. as replacements for the few IC125/225 sets which are planned to be retained).

 

[BigCj34]

It looks very interesting indeed, and could be another nail in the coffin for franchising out the ICEC franchise. There is no chance a new TOC could charge high prices to make premium payments to the DfT if First are going to take up a fair amount of the custom. Even if they are generating new patronage on the railway, taking from air/coach/car or journeys that would not be made, existing rail users will no doubt switch if cheaper too.

 

[Darandio]

It looks very interesting indeed, and could be another nail in the coffin for franchising out the ICEC franchise. There is no chance a new TOC could charge high prices to make premium payments to the DfT if First are going to take up a fair amount of the custom. Even if they are generating new patronage on the railway, taking from air/coach/car or journeys that would not be made, existing rail users will no doubt switch if cheaper too.

How on earth are they going to be taking up a 'fair amount' of the custom with 5 standard class only trains?

 

[jagardner1984]

The train would be mostly empty going west, since your passengers would just use normal ScotRail services to get to/from Edinburgh. It'd be no slower, and it means not having extra complication. As I understand it, a big chunk of the case for First East Coast running like a low-cost airline is that simplicity saves a lot of money. There'd be no need to worry about connections or revenue sharing, and having only one simple route minimises the number of trains required. That hour to Glasgow means an extra two hours minimum on a diagram - probably more like three once you take into account cross-Edinburgh pathing and turnaround time at Glasgow. In that same three hours you could have waited, turned around and reached York.

I’m not sure that follows, otherwise why run it from Newcastle, people will just take LNER from Edinburgh and change there ? My point being if they are saying “average” price of £25 Edinburgh to London, charging £30/35 Glasgow to London, albeit on a slightly slower train than the VTWC services, would pick up a lot of custom. Certainly I’d consider the extra half hour on the journey and a change in Edinburgh rather than VTWC services where I rarely get change from £60/70.

 

[BigCj34]

How on earth are they going to be taking up a 'fair amount' of the custom with 5 standard class only trains?

I clearly cannot put a figure on how much patronage the ICEC franchise will lose to First East Coast, but I do not think it is unreasonable to assume there will be some passengers using First EC when they might have otherwise have used ICEC. Of course not everyone will, the times won't suit everybody and some people will choose flexibility and be able to take their choice of service every hour.

 

[Failed Unit]

Living in Hertfordshire I could be one that is extracted from the franchised operation.

A single change at Stevenage is better than doubling back into kings cross.

It will all depends on speed, reliability and quality of service. I expect the first offer will be quicker. As for the other points we shall see.

 

[matacaster]

Can't help thinking a name change might be appropriate.

Second East Coast

anyone?

 

[Clip]

No fair enough, I was going the other way - based in London, going to Scunthorpe for work, so not part of the 200k. I was suggesting out of the population of the three North Lincs towns, a substantial London bound flow could be generated.

After all, the population of Corby doesn't go much above 100k and yet has a direct London service.

Ok then - pluck a figure out of the sky as to how many from those 200k would be using the service and how you could clarify that as substantial

Corby has nothing to do with it as it isnt part of grimsby/scunthorpe or cleethorpes

 

[ScotTrains]

Can't help thinking a name change might be appropriate.

Second East Coast

anyone?

How about No First East Coast.
Or better still First No First East Coast.

I always thought First group should change their name, especially as they were never really top at anything.

 

[Journeyman]

Why has this thread suddenly reappeared? Given First's enormous problems, I'd be very surprised if this service ever appears.

 

[tbtc]

Why has this thread suddenly reappeared? Given First's enormous problems, I'd be very surprised if this service ever appears.

I'd be surprised if it ever appears, given the constraints on the current ECML infrastructure, given the need to squeeze in an hourly TPE service north of Newcastle on top of that (plus plans for whichever VTEC commitments LNER decide to honour in terms of additional services along the ECML).

Interesting though - there's an existing market for trains between Scotland and London. Caledonian Sleeper have decided to go "high" (by targeting premium passengers, tourists looking for an "experience" rather than people just wanting to get to their destination), First are deciding to go "low" (standard class, bums on seats). Two Open Access companies are already taking slices of the market. Somewhere in the middle of that we are hoping to have a private company running the majority of ECML services and paying a large premium to the Treasury. I'm not sure there's room for everyone.

 

[gsnedders]

I'd be surprised if it ever appears, given the constraints on the current ECML infrastructure, given the need to squeeze in an hourly TPE service north of Newcastle on top of that (plus plans for whichever VTEC commitments LNER decide to honour in terms of additional services along the ECML).

Interesting though - there's an existing market for trains between Scotland and London. Caledonian Sleeper have decided to go "high" (by targeting premium passengers, tourists looking for an "experience" rather than people just wanting to get to their destination), First are deciding to go "low" (standard class, bums on seats). Two Open Access companies are already taking slices of the market. Somewhere in the middle of that we are hoping to have a private company running the majority of ECML services and paying a large premium to the Treasury. I'm not sure there's room for everyone.

Two open access companies? CS isn't open access, it's a franchise let by Transport Scotland.

 

[43096]

Can't help thinking a name change might be appropriate.

Second East Coast

anyone?

Worst East Coast.

 

[sprinterguy]

Two open access companies? CS isn't open access, it's a franchise let by Transport Scotland.

tbtc was referring to Grand Central and Hull trains on the ECML.

 

[gsnedders]

tbtc was referring to Grand Central and Hull trains on the ECML.

I… can't read. Yes, obviously.

 

[Edders23]

having read three pages of this thread the first thing that strikes me is that this is the rail equivalent of freddie lakers skytrain and as first group are predominantly a coach company why not all second; after all many routes including London commuter and most cross country/secondary routes don't have first class compartments nor do long distance coaches or short range aircraft

The Wikipedia page for this proposed service states AT300 trains as the rolling stock (not that you can trust wikipedia to be accurate)

As the roll out of the temperamental and hamstrung 800/802's continues there would surely be either construction slots for 15 new coaches or cascaded trains available

I would think the bid was probably accepted only on the basis of 125 MPH trains which could be fit more easily into the ECML which can be very heavily congested at certain times of day

I personally suspect that the lack of an order for the new trains means they are looking for a cheaper option but it might also indicate that they are doing their sums again to make sure they have a viable service as there will be no government subsidy and a big up front cost starting it

 

[ForTheLoveOf]

In terms of a market, seeing as there are many flights each day between London and Edinburgh/Glasgow, I don't think it's unthinkable that there are more passengers out there who might yet want to make that journey by train. For most passengers, the time differential between train and plane is really quite minimal, though of course those who start/end their journey particularly near to one of the airports or stations will inevitably be drawn to that respective means of transport!

So it is really a question of what each mode of transport can offer. So I don't see it as unfeasible that there is a large market out there for First East Coast, if they can get the financials to work.

Of course, seeing as they have to pay only track access charges and no franchise fees, in effect they are making "endue" of Network Rail's subsidy; I suppose the same could be said of aviation, where fuel is not taxed at all!

 

[gsnedders]

In terms of a market, seeing as there are many flights each day between London and Edinburgh/Glasgow, I don't think it's unthinkable that there are more passengers out there who might yet want to make that journey by train. For most passengers, the time differential between train and plane is really quite minimal, though of course those who start/end their journey particularly near to one of the airports or stations will inevitably be drawn to that respective means of transport!

Remember each train carries the same as quite a few planes, though!

I live relatively centrally in Glasgow for the amount of sprawl there is and going to where I do in Camden often, it's still over an hour quicker to fly than go by train doing the whole journey by public transport (and if I allow myself a taxi instead of train/bus to GLA that makes going to LCY around two hours quicker).

 

[43096]

I'd be surprised if it ever appears, given the constraints on the current ECML infrastructure, given the need to squeeze in an hourly TPE service north of Newcastle on top of that (plus plans for whichever VTEC commitments LNER decide to honour in terms of additional services along the ECML).

Agreed. Given that the paths for this are those created by the upgrade that VTEC had included in their franchise bid (for which they were planning on retaining a small number of Mark 4 or HST sets) and that NR have not since done the upgrades (Werrington grade separation, northern freight loops etc) then I don't see how this service can start. Interesting, too, that no order has been placed for the Hitachi sets they were proposing to use.

 

[mmh]

Remember each train carries the same as quite a few planes, though!

I live relatively centrally in Glasgow for the amount of sprawl there is and going to where I do in Camden often, it's still over an hour quicker to fly than go by train doing the whole journey by public transport (and if I allow myself a taxi instead of train/bus to GLA that makes going to LCY around two hours quicker).

You beat me to it. It's certainly not universal that there's little difference between the train and flying. I live in London and visit family in Glasgow a couple of times a year, sometimes by train, sometimes by plane. I'd give myself about 6 and a half hours to do it by train door to door, and around 3 hours flying - at both ends the airport (Gatwick, in my case) is more convenient than the station. All by
public transport, except for a taxi from Glasgow airport to my final destination, which takes about 10 minutes (I'd get a bus or a train and a bit of a walk from Central station.)

 

[paul1609]

In terms of a market, seeing as there are many flights each day between London and Edinburgh/Glasgow, I don't think it's unthinkable that there are more passengers out there who might yet want to make that journey by train. For most passengers, the time differential between train and plane is really quite minimal, though of course those who start/end their journey particularly near to one of the airports or stations will inevitably be drawn to that respective means of transport!

So it is really a question of what each mode of transport can offer. So I don't see it as unfeasible that there is a large market out there for First East Coast, if they can get the financials to work.

This seems to be a common misconception on this forum. The reality is that for the vast majority of real door to door journeys air is currently 2 hours plus faster than rail for a London/ South East to/ from Scotland Central Belt Journey. Once you start to move away from the Central Belt Cities the situation is generally that rail is only just faster than a car/ van journey and much slower than air. One of the frequent claims is some sort of belief that you need to turn up at the airport 3 hours in advance of a domestic flight- you dont, most journeys these days will involve an online check-in, fast bag drop and security an hour is ample. I prefer this process at any UK airport when compared to a Cross London on the tube prior to catching a train on an advanced ticket or even cross Glasgow Journey to catch an infrequent highlands service.

 

[Journeyman]

Two open access companies? CS isn't open access, it's a franchise let by Transport Scotland.

That was a reference to Grand Central and Hull Trains.

 

[Bletchleyite]

One of the frequent claims is some sort of belief that you need to turn up at the airport 3 hours in advance of a domestic flight- you dont, most journeys these days will involve an online check-in, fast bag drop and security an hour is ample. I prefer this process at any UK airport when compared to a Cross London on the tube prior to catching a train on an advanced ticket or even cross Glasgow Journey to catch an infrequent highlands service.

Very true. And TBH air is preferable to the Euston or Kings Cross scrum followed by standing with someone's head in your armpit as reservations aren't properly displayed. (You can't really compare unreserved as you'd in practice have to reserve on a flight).

 

[ainsworth74]

I personally suspect that the lack of an order for the new trains means they are looking for a cheaper option but it might also indicate that they are doing their sums again to make sure they have a viable service as there will be no government subsidy and a big up front cost starting it

Would we expect an order to already be on the books? The access rights don't start until May 2021 so we're still two and a half years away from launch. If we get to this time next year then I'd start to be suspicious but this far out?

 

[jagardner1984]

Does anyone know, what are the consequences for an open access operator who applies for paths and then doesn’t fulfil them (or at least not on time ?)

I suspect First will hold off formal orders until the last possible moment; to see how political events of the next year / 18 months affects (or doesn’t affect) passenger growth. It seems 125mph stock will not be at such a premium in May 2021, so they have options ...

 

[takno]

This seems to be a common misconception on this forum. The reality is that for the vast majority of real door to door journeys air is currently 2 hours plus faster than rail for a London/ South East to/ from Scotland Central Belt Journey. Once you start to move away from the Central Belt Cities the situation is generally that rail is only just faster than a car/ van journey and much slower than air. One of the frequent claims is some sort of belief that you need to turn up at the airport 3 hours in advance of a domestic flight- you dont, most journeys these days will involve an online check-in, fast bag drop and security an hour is ample. I prefer this process at any UK airport when compared to a Cross London on the tube prior to catching a train on an advanced ticket or even cross Glasgow Journey to catch an infrequent highlands service.

All of which may be true, although I'd say it's between 40 and 80 minutes quicker by plane from most of central London to most of Edinburgh. Most of the people I know going to London actually prefer the train either because they can get work done, or they just hate airports. The extra time is just not a factor and the leading cause of flying is that it's cheaper, which presumably is the very issue First are looking to target.

Add to that that these are limited stop services (with the Morpeth stop handily located next to a 50 limit for minimal added time) which are supposed to be quicker than the current times, and the benefits really start to wear down.

 

[ForTheLoveOf]

It will be interesting to see whether First East Coast still use the NRCoT for their tickets, if they are going for a Megatrain style operation. They do open themselves up to a fair amount of potential liability in the event of delays and cancellations - not just from passengers, but from other TOCs if the other TOCs have to sort out stranded passengers.