West Coast Franchise speculation

[The Ham]

Your diagram seems to have moved where Stafford actually is, and erased Liverpool?

Liverpool wouldn't need to be served by WC (West Coast) services as the current WC services could be replaced by HS2 services. Which is why it is not on that diagram.

I don't know why the user who posted this had moved the other station.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I doubt the number of trains leaving Euston will be reduced, but there is definitely a will to increase the south WCML commuter service using some of the paths released by HS2.

 

[The Ham]

I doubt the number of trains leaving Euston will be reduced, but there is definitely a will to increase the south WCML commuter service using some of the paths released by HS2.

Which is why I said that it's 4tph (out of Euston) which could be used by other services.

 

[The Planner]

They will have to be reduced, HS2 phase 1 opens with a reduction in classic platforms at Euston (it goes to 16 as part of construction anyway), presuming phase 2b goes ahead then they will want to start building the next phase of their Euston station, therefore you would expect/will be another reduction in platforms.

 

[Bletchleyite]

They will have to be reduced, HS2 phase 1 opens with a reduction in classic platforms at Euston (it goes to 16 as part of construction anyway), presuming phase 2b goes ahead then they will want to start building the next phase of their Euston station, therefore you would expect/will be another reduction in platforms.

HS2 will remove platforms 16-18, but not any more, the station will expand west, not east.

That won't necessitate a reduction in paths, however, as replacing IC trains with regional ones means shorter layovers are required as there is no buffet to stock, no reservations to place etc.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Like the planner says, no point going into what or what won't happen. Think the bids are all due in pretty soon and then it'll be down to some civil servants to carefully assess the bids before concluding that the one with the biggest pot of money wins.

The bids won't include the post-HS2 services, that will be for the winner to sort out with the DfT/HS2 down track.
They haven't even agreed the rolling stock spec yet.

I don't know how anyone can grumble about Liverpool-Crewe-Stafford services.
It already gets a needless 3tph, and the expectation is that there will be a second long-distance Liverpool service eventually, making 4tph.
If the long distance stuff goes via HS2 that still leaves 2tph on the classic line (presently WMT/LNWR).
The future of the WMT franchise will also affect service proposals, and won't even be decided before about 2024.

WCP bids were due in last Friday, so hopefully someone at DfT has spent an interesting weekend studying them!

 

[krus_aragon]

Liverpool wouldn't need to be served by WC (West Coast) services as the current WC services could be replaced by HS2 services. Which is why it is not on that diagram.

I don't know why the user who posted this had moved the other station.

To illustrate that Stafford would be served by Manchester trains (after the Liverpool ones are removed to HS2) without having to change the copy-pasted diagram too much.

For my part, I'd like the "limited service" part under the words "to Holyhead" to be erased too

 

[The Planner]

HS2 will remove platforms 16-18, but not any more, the station will expand west, not east.

That won't necessitate a reduction in paths, however, as replacing IC trains with regional ones means shorter layovers are required as there is no buffet to stock, no reservations to place etc.

Nope, they head eastwards during phase 2 construction and you will have less than 16 platforms.

 

[Chester1]

The bids won't include the post-HS2 services, that will be for the winner to sort out with the DfT/HS2 down track.
They haven't even agreed the rolling stock spec yet.

I don't know how anyone can grumble about Liverpool-Crewe-Stafford services.
It already gets a needless 3tph, and the expectation is that there will be a second long-distance Liverpool service eventually, making 4tph.
If the long distance stuff goes via HS2 that still leaves 2tph on the classic line (presently WMT/LNWR).
The future of the WMT franchise will also affect service proposals, and won't even be decided before about 2024.

WCP bids were due in last Friday, so hopefully someone at DfT has spent an interesting weekend studying them!

Haha, Liverpool gets a very bad rail service because Liverpool has 1 VT per hour but Manchester has 3....

 

[B&I]

Liverpool wouldn't need to be served by WC (West Coast) services as the current WC services could be replaced by HS2 services. Which is why it is not on that diagram.

Doesn't that also apply to Birmingham, Manchester and everywhere else which will be connected to HS2 ? Why does everywhere other than Liverpool need residual WC services post-HS2 ?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Doesn't that also apply to Birmingham, Manchester and everywhere else which will be connected to HS2 ? Why does everywhere other than Liverpool need residual WC services post-HS2 ?

For the purposes of connecting intermediate stations (such as MKC) with those locations and vice versa. Demand from MKC is greater to Manchester, Birmingham and Scotland than it is to Liverpool.

 

[HSTEd]

Your diagram seems to have moved where Stafford actually is, and erased Liverpool?

The stafford position moved simply because the original diagram placed it above the split, when it should actually be immediately below the split.

And Liverpool is missing because a Crewe-Runcorn-Liverpool stopping pattern via HS2 kind of removes the need for a classic line service.

 

[The Ham]

Doesn't that also apply to Birmingham, Manchester and everywhere else which will be connected to HS2 ? Why does everywhere other than Liverpool need residual WC services post-HS2 ?

The Liverpool services could run on either HS2 or WC without impacting the calling patterns, in that there's no stops south of the junction from HS2 to the WCML (as at the end of phase 1).

This isn't the case of other services.

 

[driver_m]

Can we not turn this into another " Bletchleyite does down Liverpool' thread please.

 

[AndrewE]

Doesn't that also apply to Birmingham, Manchester and everywhere else which will be connected to HS2 ? Why does everywhere other than Liverpool need residual WC services post-HS2 ?

How about: Because a) the current WCML service is rubbish if you want to travel between lots of stations on the line, also b) lots of us want to go to places other than London! I want a semi-fast service that will allow me to get from Crewe or Stafford, changing at Nuneaton to Peterborough - just one example. Also how will (say) Chester to Northampton passengers fare with the new "everything fast to London" regime?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Can we not turn this into another " Bletchleyite does down Liverpool' thread please.

Oh, behave. You know I'm a Scouser, right? I'm just realistic about the city's role and prospects.

 

[driver_m]

Oh, behave. You know I'm a Scouser, right? I'm just realistic about the city's role and prospects.

Yes I do know you are.

 

[AndrewE]

Oh, behave. You know I'm a Scouser, right? I'm just realistic about the city's role and prospects.

I don't understand this. I have worked in Liverpool (mostly on the railway, I admit) and also visited the city with family and friends frequently over 3 or 4 decades now and it is one of our favourites (cities that is.)
It has friendly people, lots of shops, universities (so a student population and the retail & entertainment that goes with that,) world-class art galleries & museums, industrial and civic heritage, a good public transport network, historic and modern/niche pubs, parks (don't forget I am including the Wirral.) In fact if I had to move home it would be near the top of my destination list.
I would say that being realistic about its role and prospects, if London's economy carries on overheating then we might well see big organisations like Insurance companies moving back north, including to Scouseland.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I don't understand this. I have worked in Liverpool (mostly on the railway, I admit) and also visited the city with family and friends frequently over 3 or 4 decades now and it is one of our favourites (cities that is.)
It has friendly people, lots of shops, universities (so a student population and the retail & entertainment that goes with that,) world-class art galleries & museums, industrial and civic heritage, a good public transport network, historic and modern/niche pubs, parks (don't forget I am including the Wirral.) In fact if I had to move home it would be near the top of my destination list.
I would say that being realistic about its role and prospects, if London's economy carries on overheating then we might well see big organisations like Insurance companies moving back north, including to Scouseland.

I absolutely agree, and I would certainly live there again. And if there is a growth in business, increased train services will absolutely be justified. However, what I don't have any time for is the "whine" of "London has X, we want it", or "Manchester has X, we want it". It doesn't matter what anyone else has, it matters what is justified.

 

[mmh]

Oh, behave. You know I'm a Scouser, right? I'm just realistic about the city's role and prospects.

Yes, you've mentioned it often enough. As well as giving the impression that the only reason for the WCML existing is for people in Milton Keynes and south of it to commute to London.

However, what I don't have any time for is the "whine" of "London has X, we want it", or "Manchester has X, we want it". It doesn't matter what anyone else has, it matters what is justified.

That's a bit of a strange attitude to have if you live in Milton Keynes.

 

[mmh]

Liverpool wouldn't need to be served by WC (West Coast) services as the current WC services could be replaced by HS2 services. Which is why it is not on that diagram.

I don't know why the user who posted this had moved the other station.

I think they'd conveniently ignored the route from Stafford to Stoke.

 

[The Ham]

How about: Because a) the current WCML service is rubbish if you want to travel between lots of stations on the line, also b) lots of us want to go to places other than London! I want a semi-fast service that will allow me to get from Crewe or Stafford, changing at Nuneaton to Peterborough - just one example. Also how will (say) Chester to Northampton passengers fare with the new "everything fast to London" regime?

By building HS2 you do create a bigger "everything fast to London" railway, however you free up space on the WCML to allow more services to stop at more places.

For instance if the fastest services (zero stops) between Crewe and London on the WCML are 30 minutes slower then the numbers of passengers lost by calling at 5 other stations and being 45 minutes slower is going to be closer to zero. However the number of passengers gained by calling at those 5 stations would be fairly significant (even if several of those are heading north to Crewe to head to London as that is faster).

 

[B&I]

For the purposes of connecting intermediate stations (such as MKC) with those locations and vice versa. Demand from MKC is greater to Manchester, Birmingham and Scotland than it is to Liverpool.

Wonder if that's anything at a to do with the current lack of direct services ? And why single out MK ? There.is plenty of demand from Liverpool to intermediate stations on the WCML, particularly because of the lack of Cross Country aervices to Liverpool - habe a look some day at Crewe to see how many are changing between LNR Trent Valley and Brum-Liverpool zervices

 

[B&I]

I absolutely agree, and I would certainly live there again. And if there is a growth in business, increased train services will absolutely be justified. However, what I don't have any time for is the "whine" of "London has X, we want it", or "Manchester has X, we want it". It doesn't matter what anyone else has, it matters what is justified.

But if people like you had their way (and sadly at the moment, they do) Liverpool is stuck in a perpetual chicken and egg situation. Unable to develop its full potential for rail travel because of the comparitively poor service, yet denied a better service because of comparatively poor numbers. (I say 'comparatively' - last time I looked, Liverpool-London trains had higher.loadings per train than Liverpool-Manchester, and Liverpool-Birmingham passenger numbers were close to Liverpool-Manchester numbers).

 

[B&I]

The Liverpool services could run on either HS2 or WC without impacting the calling patterns, in that there's no stops south of the junction from HS2 to the WCML (as at the end of phase 1).

This isn't the case of other services.

.Sorry, can you explain this please ?

 

[B&I]

Oh, behave. You know I'm a Scouser, right? I'm just realistic about the city's role and prospects.

Please explain what 'realism about the city's role and prospects' means, and try to do it quickly before a certain moderator locks the thread. (Funny how discussion of long-distance services to everywhere in the WCML other than Liverpool is never tedious, it's only for some reason Liverpool that no-one is allowed to discuss).

 

[B&I]

And Liverpool is missing because a Crewe-Runcorn-Liverpool stopping pattern via HS2 kind of removes the need for a classic line service.

Why ? I ask again, why does everywhere else require direct services to intermediate stations on the WCML, whereas Liverpool passengers have to change ?

Why, for example, can't Manchester passengers travel by ATW to Crewe, or XC to Stafford, and join a residual WCML at one of those points ? As HS2 services dor Liverpool will be trundling along 40 miles of.claasic line at lower speed than the current tilti g trains, it's not as if Liverpool passengers would be able to reach residual WCML connections any faster than that Mancunian example.

Some triple whammy that: no direct HS2 connection, substantially longer journey times than other HS2 destinations, and lower capacity (with the DfT cheerfully admitting Liverpool's HS2 services will be full from day one), and yet this is used to justify a poorer residual WCML service than other cities which are better served by HS2.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Wonder if that's anything at a to do with the current lack of direct services ? And why single out MK ? There.is plenty of demand from Liverpool to intermediate stations on the WCML, particularly because of the lack of Cross Country aervices to Liverpool - habe a look some day at Crewe to see how many are changing between LNR Trent Valley and Brum-Liverpool zervices

But bear in mind that the reason they are changing there is because there are some ridiculously cheap walk-up and Advance tickets if you stick to LNR services only. Quite a lot of them will be going to London, not places like Rugeley. (They already have a direct service to Stafford twice an hour).

Just about the most popular thing you could do for Liverpool with regard to the WCML, I suspect, would be to extend the LNR Crewe service to Lime St hourly, even if that resulted in the loss of one of the two Brum services.

 

[driver_m]

Maybe there's a good case here for a poll on what people think is the best thing to add to the WC franchises, but not necessarily everyone's pet thing. Say. Hartford - Warrington, East Lancs - London direct services, Motherwell stops heading south, etc etc .It's such a varied route and yet it always boils down here to certain things getting shouted for the loudest .

 

[whhistle]

[Liverpool] has friendly people, lots of shops, universities (so a student population and the retail & entertainment that goes with that,) world-class art galleries & museums, industrial and civic heritage, a good public transport network, historic and modern/niche pubs, parks...

You could say that about nearly any city though.