EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[northwichcat]

Exactly how it should be. Being engaged is just something you say to each other, completely meaningless to anyone else.

It means many couples of mixed nationality rush in to marriage so they can both live and work in the same country, which increases the chance of divorce. Would you rather have (hypothetically)
1. Mr Wong come over for 6 months to live and work close to Miss Smith, who he meet when Miss Smith spent a gap year in China and then they decide marriage isn't for them, so Mr Wong returns home after 6 months.
2. Mr Wong to come over and get married to Miss Smith within a week. The marriage doesn't work out and they separate, they only formally get divorced when Miss Smith wants to remarry and by that time Mr Wong has lived here long enough to claim British citizenship even if he isn't still married to a British person.

 

[northwichcat]

Well, I thought at the time and still do that ideally no results per counting district should have been given, it was a national referendum and the only two reasons to do so were logistical, so local authorities could run the polling stations and counts as they're used to, and so we could have the usual results-coming-in-overnight show for the media rather than a single declaration the next day from Manchester. If we hadn't we wouldn't have had two years of people trying to extrapolate things from figures which aren't there.

But that did happen, and as a result we've got figures which show that most areas voted to leave, and the closeness of the result was influenced by some of the most heavily populated areas not doing.

Unless the counting was done nationally (which would have meant the result wouldn't have been released the following morning) there would be people who knew how each council voting area voted and the information would have got out unofficially. While many MPs seem to ignore how their constituents voted, local results should be useful for MPs when deciding how to vote in parliament in a way which represents their constituents (which is their job to do) rather than the whole country.

 

[northwichcat]

It's an interesting one. Both parties have the problem that they're trying to be everything to all people, and failing miserably. The traditional supporters of both are pro-leave, so neither will propose not leaving, or postponing it - the fallout in their heartlands would be collosal, and the only guaranteed beneficiary of people deserting either party would be UKIP.

In the case of Liverpool, there's been quite a bit of funding from the EU on certain projects, and even then the result was just 58.2% in favour of Remain, which I personally would've expected to be much higher. Still kind of heavily in favour of course, but I wouldn't go as far with overwhelming. Even so, there is also a strong anti-Conservative political climate here, so this is a case where you could pretty much run an Elephant for Labour and they would still do better than the Tories. Funnily enough though, I imagine the Elephant would be the quietest one in Parliament...

@mmh was generalising too much in his earlier post (above.) Many traditional Labour voters in Labour heartlands voted remain and Liverpool is the best example of that. 58.2% is a higher proportion of the votes than Labour get in many of their North East 'heartland' seats.

I agree Liverpool is unique in politics. The Liberal Party have 2 seats on Liverpool City Council - I don't mean the Lib Dems, I mean those who broke away from the original Liberal Party when they merged with the SDP to form the Lib Dems. I don't know if there's anywhere else in the UK where the Liberal Party actually have a presence.

Both Liverpool and Manchester have a significant number of young voters who were generally pro-Remain and anti-Tory. A bit like this young lady:

 

[PHILIPE]

Prediction time:- first Cabinet resignation will be David Davis. He may even go before Esther McVey is forced to!

I'm wondering if May, a remainer at heart, will appoint a Remoaner to succeed David Davis. After all, Corbyn only appoints extremist lefties to his Shadow Cabinet

 

[northwichcat]

I'm wondering if May, a remainer at heart, will appoint a Remoaner to succeed David Davis. After all, Corbyn only appoints extremist lefties to his Shadow Cabinet

May has a record of keeping an overall balanced cabinet when it comes to those in favour of leaving the EU and those not. While I do think Corbyn has given some senior positions to the more left wing MPs over the most suitable I also think you're wrong on that count. Corbyn has been happy to give moderates positions in the shadow cabinet, it's just most of the moderates who were given positions have resigned and some of those who haven't been given positions say they don't want to be in the shadow cabinet under Corbyn.

 

[SilentGrade]

May has a record of keeping an overall balanced cabinet when it comes to those in favour of leaving the EU and those not.

Something she has done by appointing passionate Brexiteer Dominic Raab to replace Davis.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44763998

Dominic Raab has been appointed Brexit Secretary by Theresa May after David Davis resigned from the government.

Mr Raab, who is currently housing minister, was a prominent Leave campaigner during the 2016 referendum.

Mr Davis quit early on Monday morning, saying Theresa May had "given away too much too easily".

 

[WelshBluebird]

“Here looking for work... You mean you have no job to go to?
Well it’s straight back onto the aeroplane with you, then!”.

Oh, you mean the thing we could do now while still in the EU but our governments decided they didn't want to do?

By the time they reach the U.K. they are no longer refugees by the UN definition.

Of course, the problem there if you take that view is that by that logic you expect the outer countries of the EU to accept all the refugees. Which is just silly.

I fully agree that the EU should have done much better and actually put in place measures to manage the flow of refugees. But to suggest countries like Greece and Italy should have to accept all of them just because of the accident of geography is naive to say the last, and I bet you wouldn't hold that opinion if we happened to be one of the "outer" countries over that way.

 

[Busaholic]

Something she has done by appointing passionate Brexiteer Dominic Raab to replace Davis.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44763998

To sideline him from getting his leadership campaign going? He is, apparently, even more in la-la land than so many of them, in that his belief in his own abilities is off the Richter scale: Boris Johnson, Piers Morgan and Stephen Fry mere amateurs in comparison. We shall see: if you don't know his 'style' watch or listen for the George Osborne- like exasperation , barely able to be suppressed, when his considered, weighty opinions on anything are queried by mere mortals! Pritti Patel is another of the breed.

 

[Howardh]

Raab; much as I hate him, May may have done the right thing as it (a) should pacify hard-liners and keep them quiet - after all he's one of their own and (b) he HAS to follow May's plan and keep to the script so he can't go down the no-deal route.
Probably also stops a leadership challenge.
I understand he's about to jet off and "sell" May's Plan to the EU.

 

[northwichcat]

Of course, the problem there if you take that view is that by that logic you expect the outer countries of the EU to accept all the refugees. Which is just silly.

And it overlooks the fact the most southern point of the European mainland is part of the United Kingdom, so if tensions flare up in Morocco or Tunisia there could be hundreds of immigrants arriving on a tiny bit of the United Kingdom and we wouldn't get help from Spain or Portugal. Also while Cyprus isn't still under our control we have a strong military base there so it would be irresponsible for our navy to sit and watch Syrians drowning because the Greek and Turkish equivalents of the navy can't get to them in time.

 

[47802]

Well Personally I'm glad Davis has gone one of the fantasy land Brexiteers who seem to think we can get as good a trade deal with the EU as being in the Single Market when we clearly can not otherwise there is no point in other countries being in the single market, whether his replacement will be any more realistic of course might be debatable.

As for a section of the Tory party wanting to kick her out, I think they need to think very hard about that unless they want Marxist Labour in Power.

 

[northwichcat]

Andrea Jenkyns has made an idiot of herself on Twitter but saying David Davies stands by his principals.

If you don't know who Andrea Jenkyns is this she's a Tory Brexiteer shown with her mum here:

and shown with a fellow comedian here:

 

[Busaholic]

Andrea Jenkyns has made an idiot of herself on Twitter but saying David Davies stands by his principals.

If you don't know who Andrea Jenkyns is this she's a Tory Brexiteer shown with her mum here:

and shown with a fellow comedian here:

What is it about Tory MPs named Andrea? They may share a name but don't boast a brain cell between them.

 

[radamfi]

She's the one who ousted Ed Balls.

 

[HSTEd]

Well if I was a conspiracist I would suggest Theresa is even now sounding out Labour and Lib Dem MPs to see if it might be possible to build a majority for hardcore remain.
They could then cancel brexit and spend the next four years making Brexit entirely impossible, by adopting the Euro and Schengen.

 

[Howardh]

She's the one who ousted Ed Balls.

At that point I actually liked her. How quickly things go downhill!!

 

[Howardh]

Well if I was a conspiracist I would suggest Theresa is even now sounding out Labour and Lib Dem MPs to see if it might be possible to build a majority for hardcore remain.
They could then cancel brexit and spend the next four years making Brexit entirely impossible, by adopting the Euro and Schengen.

To be fair, Brexit was impossible even before the referendum was called. It needed years of unthreading from top to bottom, and then if it WAS doable, the alternative course put to the public once any possibiliyu of a successful exit eas established (if any).
Anyhow, May had to produce something to put to the cabinet on a "back me or walk" and those that walk have now either got to put up or shut up - and if they put up there's a good chance they will lose, allowing a free run at an Andrex Brexit, and if they shut up then they are allowing a free.....

 

[northwichcat]

At that point I actually liked her. How quickly things go downhill!!

Her first speech in parliament was opposing Cameron and Osborne's austerity proposals but then she voted in favour of them!

 

[Senex]

Well if I was a conspiracist I would suggest Theresa is even now sounding out Labour and Lib Dem MPs to see if it might be possible to build a majority for hardcore remain.
They could then cancel brexit and spend the next four years making Brexit entirely impossible, by adopting the Euro and Schengen.

If only! But has she ever shewn the slightest trace of being bright enough to conceive and manage such a plot?

 

[northwichcat]

Well if I was a conspiracist I would suggest Theresa is even now sounding out Labour and Lib Dem MPs to see if it might be possible to build a majority for hardcore remain.
They could then cancel brexit and spend the next four years making Brexit entirely impossible, by adopting the Euro and Schengen.

If we were going to adopt the Euro then 2007 would have been the time to do it when you could get 1.50 Euros for a Pound. Doing it now when it's 1.13 Euros to the Pound would make us permanently poor compared to our equivalents in Germany, France, The Netherlands etc. Although, Brexit might do that anyway.

 

[nlogax]

Currently rumours doing the rounds that Boris Johnson is on the verge of quitting. Hasn't turned up to scheduled appointments, is apparently holed-up in his residence with advisors.

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1016316578672054273

"Friends of @BorisJohnson think he is quitting. Not definite. But he is ensconced in his official residence with his advisers, which sends a powerful signal. As one said, "very hard for him not to quit now that Davis has, given that everyone knows they both hate May's Brexit plan" "

EDIT: He's quit. Gone. Out of there.

 

[northwichcat]

Currently rumours doing the rounds that Boris Johnson is on the verge of quitting. Hasn't turned up to scheduled appointments, is apparently holed-up in his residence with advisors.

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1016316578672054273

"Friends of @BorisJohnson think he is quitting. Not definite. But he is ensconced in his official residence with his advisers, which sends a powerful signal. As one said, "very hard for him not to quit now that Davis has, given that everyone knows they both hate May's Brexit plan" "

According to the Press Association now confirmed

A Downing Street spokesman said: “This afternoon, the Prime Minister accepted the resignation of Boris Johnson as Foreign Secretary. His replacement will be announced shortly. The Prime Minister thanks Boris for his work.”

https://twitter.com/PA/status/1016321642975367169

 

[cf111]

Oh no, however will we carry on without Boris's statesmanship and insight?

 

[SilentGrade]

I smell a leadership contest. No other reason Boris would resign than to further his massive ego.

 

[SilentGrade]

Well if I was a conspiracist I would suggest Theresa is even now sounding out Labour and Lib Dem MPs to see if it might be possible to build a majority for hardcore remain.
They could then cancel brexit and spend the next four years making Brexit entirely impossible, by adopting the Euro and Schengen.

Regardless this is the only way any Brexit deal, no matter the content is going to pass parliament. No one party contains enough members fully committed to one approach to Brexit that they can pass their version of a bill.

 

[nlogax]

Who's leaving next? Smart money seems to be on Liam Fox..

 

[northwichcat]

Who's leaving next? Smart money seems to be on Liam Fox..

Come on Grayling and McVey - I don't honestly expect them to go next but I want them to go.

 

[northwichcat]

Now according to Robert Peston, Downing Street confirmed Johnson was resigning before he actually handed in his resignation letter.

 

[Kite159]

Sadly it increases the chances of Mr C getting into power to wreck the country even more

(Although its not like the current lot are doing much better)

Is it too late to cancel Article 50?

 

[northwichcat]

Is it too late to cancel Article 50?

Given the president of the EU council has just tweeted this

Politicians come and go but the problems they have created for people remain. I can only regret that the idea of #Brexit has not left with Davis and Johnson. But...who knows?

https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1016327348919193601

I'd say no.